【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.7.14 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | asonosososo | | 2025.7.11 | 2025.7.4 | 价格变动 | | | 2025.7.11 | 2025.7.4 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3133 | 3072 | 61 | 1.99% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3220 | 3170 | 50 | 1.58% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3273 | 3201 | 72 | 2.25% | Q235B:5.75*1500*C:市场价:上海 | 3300 | 3250 | 50 | 1.54% | | 铁矿石 | 12509 | 764 | 732.5 | 31.5 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow down 0.15%, Nasdaq down 0.01%, and S&P 500 down 0.09% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Kingsoft Cloud up over 9% and NIO up over 5%, while Baidu, Sohu, and Youdao fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - HSBC warned that the ongoing sell-off of the US dollar may indicate a bubble, with the dollar index dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973 [2] - The dollar has shown slight recovery since July [2] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Effects - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting in August has significantly impacted European industries, particularly the German automotive sector, with major manufacturers like Volkswagen and BMW seeing stock declines of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively [3] - French agricultural producers, especially in cheese and wine, have also expressed concerns over the destructive impact of these tariffs [3] Group 4: Energy Sector Dynamics - The energy market is experiencing a shift, with thermal power companies seeing improved profitability due to falling coal prices, while coal companies are facing profit pressure and some are reporting losses [5] - The coal industry is adapting by enhancing coal-electricity joint ventures to stabilize revenue streams [5] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Performance - Dabeinong is expected to turn a profit in the first half of the year, projecting a net profit of 190 million to 250 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 156 million yuan in the same period last year [6] Group 6: Autonomous Vehicle Development - Pony.ai has commenced mass production and road testing of its seventh-generation autonomous Robotaxi in Shenzhen, marking a significant step towards its goal of expanding its fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025 [7]

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025年7月7日-7月11日）A股市场整体上行。上周市场板块轮动速度依旧较快，消息面 利好带动房地产、城镇化概念上涨，政策催化下大金融、稳定币概念表现活跃。 权益市场观察： "反内卷"：4月末政治局会议提到的"稳就业"等民生议题优先级的显著提升，可能对"去产能"政策的实施力度构 成一定制约。因此，在具体的产业政策落地前，还将在超跌方向持续轮动。 算力链：随着国产 GPU 上市潮、硬件厂商业绩兑现与 AI 大模型需求增长形成共振，目前来看AI仍是景气度较 高的方向，算力链行情亦有望受到催化。 中报披露期：市场即将迎来财报披露高峰期，业绩作为7-8月份市场中重要的增量信息，中报业绩表现较好的行 业，自然会受到投资者的关注。 公募基金市场动态： 7 月 11 日，深交所发布关于修订创业板综合指数编制方案的公告，主要包括增加风险警 示股票月度剔除机制、增加 ESG 负面剔除机制两方面。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优选指数：上周收涨0.90%，成立以来累计录得12.02 ...

煤焦数据快讯-2025年6月煤炭进口数据 7月14日 林大华期货有限公司 N DAHUA FUTURES CO. LTD 2020-2025年中国煤炭累计进口量(万吨) 2020-2025年中国煤炭月度进口量(万吨) 60000 6000 - 54270 5498 50000 5000 - 47447 40000 32368 4000 3304 30000 3000 29332 20000 2000 10000 1000 12月 1月 2月 3月 6月 11月 4月 5月 7月 8月 9月 10月 2021年 -2023年 ·2024年 -2025年 =2022年 -2021年 2023年 2025年 ·2022年 ·2024年 数据来源:海关总署,格林大华期货研究院整理 海关总署7月14日数据显示，6月中国进口媒及揭煤300.7万吨。较上月减少300.3万吨。环比下降8.3%,1-6月累计进口煤及揭煤22170.2万吨。同比下降 11.1%。 格林大华0351团队点评:正如我们今年一直强调的,目前操价的下跌主要是内贸压力导致,外贸进口媒始终处于跟我状态。印尼、俄罗斯和蒙古国的煤炭 出口都出现了倒挂和亏损的相 ...

焦炭提涨开启，盘面易涨难跌 煤焦周度报告 20250714 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面大幅反弹，短期易涨难跌；现货首轮提涨开启，本周落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工延续下滑，供应尚未恢复 | | | 需求 | 铁水下滑偏慢，钢厂采购积极；投机情绪较好，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量略有改善 | | | 库存 | 钢厂、港口增库，上游去库，总库存微增 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周反内卷、地产棚改、煤炭供给侧改革等炒作层出不穷，市场情绪高涨，盘面大幅拉涨。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨5.81%至1519.5，焦煤09合约 涨7.41%至913。焦炭方面，焦化厂因环保、部分检修等，供应未完全恢复，独立焦企开工延续微降。需求方面，钢厂放开采购节奏，甚至有加 ...

双焦期货周度报告 2025年07月14日 供给恢复缓慢 上游去库放缓 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内炼焦煤、焦炭价格稳中偏强运行。周五 河北个别焦企提涨第一轮，捣固湿熄焦上涨70元/吨，捣固干熄 焦上涨75元/吨，顶装湿熄焦上涨90元/吨，顶装干熄焦上涨95元 /吨。原料端焦煤来看，近期线上竞拍多数溢价成交，市场资源 价格不断上涨，本周部分地区焦煤涨幅度30-100元/吨左右。 基本面分析：供应端，本周长治地区煤矿搬家产量缩减、临 汾地区除前期因井下原因停减产外，其余维持正常生产节奏，陕 西地区检修、倒面煤矿较多，整体供应偏紧；本周线上主流大矿 线上竞拍，流拍率延续偏低，炼焦煤主力煤种价格上涨为主。本 周铁水产量239.81万吨，周环比降1.04万吨，近期铁水产量基本 保持在240左右，铁水产量仍在高位徘徊。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400- ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 14, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 26.576 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 12.112 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks a net outflow of 6.366 billion yuan [1] - Among the 21 industries tracked, mechanical equipment, public utilities, and home appliances saw the largest gains, each rising over 1%, while real estate, media, and non-bank financial sectors fell more than 1% [1] - Four industries received net inflows from main funds, with mechanical equipment leading at 394 million yuan, followed by home appliances at 117 million yuan, and coal and petrochemical sectors each exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, 37 saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with six stocks surpassing 200 million yuan in inflows [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leader in optical modules, topped the inflow list with 497 million yuan, benefiting from increased demand for ASIC servers driven by growth in ARR for AWS's Anthropic and Google's Gemini [2] - Notable stocks such as Xiangyang Bearing, Brother Technology, and Kelu Electronics also saw significant inflows, with Kelu Electronics reaching a net inflow of 314 million yuan, the highest since June 23, 2016 [2] Group 3: Notable Outflows - Over 90 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing outflows over 300 million yuan [3] - Leading the outflows were BYD and Northern Rare Earth, each with net outflows exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, with Northern Rare Earth's outflow reaching 1.105 billion yuan, marking a new high since November 4, 2024 [3][4] Group 4: Tail-End Market Activity - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 1.483 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing an outflow of 806 million yuan [6] - Notably, the digital currency concept stock Chutianlong saw a significant reversal, with a net inflow of 204 million yuan, despite a projected loss of 35 to 40 million yuan for the upcoming half-year [7] - Other stocks with notable tail-end inflows included Tianyang Technology and Hanyu Pharmaceutical, each exceeding 40 million yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with over 3100 stocks rising, while specific sectors like organic silicon and coal stocks demonstrate notable strength, contrasting with declines in real estate and certain financial sectors [1][2][3]. Sector Summaries Organic Silicon Sector - The organic silicon concept saw a significant afternoon rally, with Morning Light New Materials (晨光新材, 605399) hitting the daily limit and achieving a cumulative increase of over 33% in the last three trading days [6][9]. - Other companies in this sector, such as Morning Chemical (晨化股份) and Hongbai New Materials (宏柏新材), also experienced gains exceeding 6% [6]. - The demand for organic silicon products in China remains strong, driven by growth in electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, with expectations for continued demand increase [9][10]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks experienced a short-term surge, with Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (郑州煤电) reaching the daily limit and closing up by 5% [12][14]. - The electricity load in China hit a historical high, with a peak of 1.465 billion kilowatts, indicating a tight power supply and increased coal consumption expectations during the summer [15]. - Analysts predict that coal prices will maintain upward momentum due to high power plant coal consumption and low inventory levels [15][16]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45%, respectively, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3].