1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of large - granular urea in the alternative delivery system in Northeast China since 2027 will improve the precision of corporate hedging and reduce logistics and delivery costs [1][9] - The difference in physical properties between large - and small - granular urea leads to different application scenarios, regional adaptability, and industrial chain positions, which in turn affects the price difference between the two [12][13][14] - The price difference between large - and small - granular urea shows seasonal characteristics and is affected by supply - side disturbances and global export structure differentiation [2][30][31] - The technical transformation of urea plants in Jincheng, Shanxi is a systematic upgrade, and the original production capacity is retained, and the impact on the price difference will gradually converge [43][45][50] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction to Large - Granular Urea - **Industry Development Trend**: The domestic large - granular urea industry has seen steady expansion of production capacity and high - speed growth of output. The proportion of large - granular urea production capacity in the total domestic urea production capacity has increased from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. In 2025, the output reached 14.35 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [8] - **Policy Adjustment**: Since February 16, 2027, qualified large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton, which is in line with regional consumption characteristics and helps enterprises carry out hedging [1][9] 3.2 Comparison between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Physical Properties and Application Scenarios**: Large - granular urea has a slow dissolution rate, is suitable for mechanized deep application and the production of high - end compound fertilizers, and is mainly demanded in Northeast China. Small - granular urea dissolves quickly, is suitable for top - dressing, flushing, and spraying, and has strong market liquidity [13][14] - **Futures Delivery**: Small - granular urea is the benchmark delivery product, while large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Northeast China starting from the 2703 contract, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Large - Granular Urea Plants - **Regional Distribution**: North China is the most concentrated area for large - granular urea production capacity in China, accounting for 44% of the national total, with Shanxi accounting for 28% and Inner Mongolia accounting for 14% [16] - **Production Process**: The mainstream processes of large - granular urea plants are single - stage granulation and two - stage granulation. Two - stage granulation has better product quality, more flexible production conversion, and higher price [20][23] 3.4 Analysis of the Price Difference between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Seasonal Characteristics**: The price difference between large - and small - granular urea is wide in the fourth quarter due to winter fertilizer storage in Northeast China and narrow from June to August after the spring plowing [30] - **Influence Factors**: The price difference is affected by supply - side production capacity changes and the differentiation of export market preferences. Different regions in the international market have different preferences for large - and small - granular urea [31] - **Historical Price Difference Analysis**: In different years from 2022 to 2025, the price difference was affected by factors such as export policies, overseas demand, and production capacity maintenance. For example, in 2022, the price difference increased significantly due to the combination of strong export demand and reduced domestic supply of large - granular urea [37][38][39] 3.5 Technical Transformation Analysis of Urea Plants in Jincheng, Shanxi - **Reasons for Transformation**: Driven by environmental protection policies, Jincheng's urea enterprises are upgrading their coal gasification technology to meet the requirements of clean production [44] - **Transformation Plan**: Enterprises have chosen two technical routes: micro - pressurized pure - oxygen continuous gasification furnace and crushed/block coal pressurized gasification (Saiding furnace), and adopted the mode of "producing, transforming, and putting into operation simultaneously" [44][45] - **Transformation Progress**: The technical transformation project has made substantial progress, and the original production capacity has been retained. The impact on the supply of large - granular urea will gradually weaken [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - China Heart Heart Fertilizer (01866) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a new historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting global urea and methanol supply [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Heart Heart Fertilizer's stock rose over 7%, peaking at 10.97 HKD, and is currently trading at 10.84 HKD with a trading volume of 26.1 million HKD [2] - The stock has shown a daily increase of 6.07% [2] Group 2: Market Context - Iranian officials have declared a state of full alert, which may disrupt natural gas supplies, impacting global urea and methanol availability [2] - The potential for a localized shortage in urea and methanol could benefit domestic producers with significant production capacity and high dividend yields [2] Group 3: Company Actions - China Heart Heart Fertilizer has been actively repurchasing shares, spending approximately 8.84 million HKD to buy back 874,000 shares on January 23 [2] - The company announced a share repurchase plan on January 12, intending to buy back up to 10% of its issued shares for a total cost not exceeding 200 million HKD within the year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly report - Date of Completion: January 23, 2026 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of urea is supported by inventory reduction and demand recovery, but the high supply and the expansion of futures premium may lead to basis repair pressure [6]. - It is necessary to track whether the enterprise inventory can continue to decline, whether the port inventory starts to be destocked, whether the compound fertilizer operation rate can break through 45%, the agricultural fertilizer procurement rhythm, the expectation of new export quota release, and the transmission of international urea price fluctuations to the domestic market [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the main contract of urea futures showed a high - level volatile trend, with the futures premium continuously expanding. The market maintained range - bound fluctuations in the game between high supply and demand recovery. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory destocking and export policy dynamics [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The industry operating rate is 86.39%, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The resumption of gas - based and technical renovation devices has increased supply, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [4]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory is 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, and the port inventory is 121,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The inventory destocking trend alleviates market concerns about oversupply [4]. - Demand side: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 42.96% (+2.88%), and the melamine operating rate is 63.65% (+1.47%), providing rigid support for industrial demand. In the agricultural sector, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers has started, and some areas have followed up with off - season storage replenishment [4][5]. - Export: In December 2025, the export volume was 489,350 tons, and the export profit remained high. However, there is no news of new export quotas, and the actual export increment is limited [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The current futures price is supported by inventory destocking and demand recovery, but high supply and the expansion of futures premium may cause basis repair pressure. Key factors to track include inventory trends, compound fertilizer operation rate, agricultural procurement rhythm, export quota expectations, and international price transmissions [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：高位震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【期现行情】 【行情分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1787 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏弱。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅-0.17%，持仓量 244860 手（-1608 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+278 手，空头-1800 手。其中， 东证期货净多单+2260 手、平安期货净多单-1189 手；瑞达期货净空单-1060 手， 永安期货净空单+829 手。 2026 年 1 月 27 日，尿素仓单数量 12699 张，环比上个交易日-575 张，其中 安徽中能（厂库）-25 张，河北东光（厂库）-550 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 现货方面：今日现货行情稳中小涨，成交相对顺畅，预收订单充足下，预 计现货价格坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1690-1730 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 今日尿素低开高走， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a unilateral strategy of "oscillating upward", a cross - period strategy of "going long on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low", and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - New order transactions are improving, and attention should be paid to news disturbances. The spot price of urea has decreased, but enterprise transactions are good. The supply has increased as some gas - based and technologically - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. The demand, which was affected by snow and rain last week, has improved recently. Agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and compound fertilizer production and melamine production have increased, leading to better procurement. The overall inventory in urea factories is decreasing, while port inventory remains flat. The international urea price has risen due to the situation in Iran, and India is expected to tender again. The domestic export quota has no new news, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 26, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1791 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1760 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 41 yuan/ton (-13), in Henan was - 51 yuan/ton (-3), and in Jiangsu was - 31 yuan/ton (-3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 26, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On January 26, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 4. Urea Foreign - Market Price and Export Profit - On January 26, 2026, the export profit was 969 yuan/ton (+99) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 26, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 63.65% (+1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (-0.18) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 26, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.60 tons (-4.01), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 tons (+0.00) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains loose. Although urea exports are advancing, the recent market still has a downward trend. The main factors are the significant decline in agricultural demand, high - level urea supply, few maintenance enterprises, and the impact of production - limit notices in some areas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of coking coal is 500.00, unchanged from the previous period; the price of anthracite small pieces is 920.00, unchanged; the price of natural gas is 3870.00, an increase of 20.00 compared to the previous period [1] Price - In different regions, the prices in Henan, Anhui, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1740.00, 1750.00, and 1610.00 respectively. The price in Hebei increased by 10.00 to 1760.00, and the price in Shandong remained at 1750.00. The China FOB price increased by 10.00 to 420.00, the Middle East FOB price increased by 5.00 to 402.00, the Southeast Asia CFR price increased by 25.00 to 460.00, and the Brazil CFR price increased by 5.00 to 432.50 [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 94.60, 13.40, and 11830.00 respectively [1] Supply - The 10 - day production volume remained at 205090.00, the overall start - up rate remained at 87.10, the coal - based start - up rate remained at 95.30, and the gas - based start - up rate remained at 54.07 [1] Demand - The pending orders remained at 5.88, the compound fertilizer start - up rate remained at 42.96, the melamine start - up rate remained at 63.65, and the formaldehyde start - up rate remained at 35.68 [1] Profit - The profit of fixed - bed remained at - 181.00, the profit of coal - water slurry remained at 244.00, and the profit of natural gas remained at - 238.00. The price of liquid ammonia decreased by 10.00 to 2090.00 [1] Related Products - The price of compound fertilizer remained at 2630.00, the price of melamine remained at 5250.00, and the price of methanol decreased by 5.00 to 2015.00 [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 6.00 to 1793.00, the basis decreased by 3.00 to - 51.00, the trading volume decreased by 845.00 to 6114231.00, the open interest increased by 106.00 to 246466.00, and the warehouse receipt volume remained at 13274.00 [1]

Group 1 - The stock of China Heartlink Fertilizer (1866.HK) has risen over 1%, reaching a historical high of 11.3700 HKD, with a total market capitalization exceeding 14.4 billion HKD [1] - The stock has accumulated a gain of over 25% within the month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory reduction and demand recovery provide bottom support for the urea market, but the high operating rate and low spot prices limit the upward space of futures prices. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of enterprise inventory reduction, whether the compound fertilizer operating rate can exceed 45%, and the dynamics of export policies. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main urea contract fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,776 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The futures price was higher than the spot price, but the basis narrowed slightly. The inventory continued to decline and demand recovered, providing support. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - The industry operating rate was 86.39%, maintaining a high level, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, indicating sufficient supply. However, enterprise inventories have been decreasing for two consecutive weeks, with 946,000 tons of inventory, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week. In regions such as Inner Mongolia, shipments accelerated due to demand from the Northeast. - The operating rate of compound fertilizer rebounded to 42.96%, and the operating rate of melamine was 62.18%, indicating a recovery in industrial demand. On the agricultural side, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers started, and off - season storage continued, supporting rigid demand. - The spot prices in Shandong and Henan were 1,710 - 1,740 yuan/ton, lower than the futures closing price. After some enterprises reduced prices to attract orders, the transaction improved, but logistics was partially blocked due to snow and rain. [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Inventory reduction and demand recovery provide bottom support, but high operating rates and low spot prices limit the upward space of futures prices. The market will fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is necessary to track the sustainability of enterprise inventory reduction, whether the compound fertilizer operating rate can exceed 45%, and the dynamics of export policies. [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 14316.64 [5][8] - The overall market saw a trading volume of 32,806.44 billion, an increase of 1,625.37 billion from the previous trading day, indicating active trading despite the market's downturn [9][11] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.8 billion for the day [21] - By the end of 2025, the total number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle population [22][23] - Domestic travel by residents is projected to increase by 907 million trips in 2025, with total travel expenditure reaching 6.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [24][25] Industry Dynamics - Tianjin has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, raising the maximum loan limits for first and second homes to 1.2 million and 1 million respectively [26][27] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to promote the sustainable development of intercity railways, emphasizing planning, operational optimization, and risk management [32][34][35] Company Updates - Micron Biologics (688321.SH) expects a revenue of 910 million for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 38.32%, with a projected net profit of 53 million, marking a turnaround from losses [36][37] - Miaokelan (600882.SH) plans to recognize a fair value change loss related to an acquisition fund, which may significantly impact its net profit for 2025 [38][39] - Six Nations Chemical (600470.SH) anticipates a net loss of 480 million to 410 million for 2025 due to intensified competition and export restrictions [41][42] - Huaxin Co. (600621.SH) expects a net profit increase of approximately 77.48% for 2025, driven by growth in investment and brokerage business revenues [43] - Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) forecasts a net profit increase of 50% to 90% for 2025, attributed to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [44][45]

一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 股票简称：六国化工 股票代码：600470 公告编号：2026-002 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 业绩预告的适用情形：净利润为负值。 ● 安徽六国化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 为-48,000万元到-41,000万元；预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 为-48,500万元到-41,500万元。 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-48,000万元到-41,000万 元，将出现亏损。 预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-48,500万元到-41,500万元。 报告期内，受宏观经济环境和国家对化肥稳价保供、出口管控等政策的影响，国内化肥市场竞争加剧， 国际市场出口受限，产品出口销量同比较大幅度下降。 ...