长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-05-19 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 01 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 02 甲醇：下游需求承接有限 高位回落 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 01 1 市场变化：尿素价格延续震荡运行，盘面价格重心小幅下移，5月16日尿素2509合约收盘价1892元/吨，较上周收 盘基本持平。尿素现货价格坚挺，河南市场日均价1907元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，山东市场日均价1946元/吨， 较上周上调76元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率87.5%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.74%，较上周上调 5.45个百分点，尿素日均产量19.92万吨。新疆新冀能源150万吨/年装置试车成功，日产1560吨小颗粒尿素和 1098吨大颗粒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of green ammonia and green methanol is essential for addressing high carbon emissions in traditional industries like energy and petrochemicals, as well as for meeting domestic and international low-carbon transition pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - China's synthetic ammonia and methanol production contributes approximately 220 million tons of carbon emissions, accounting for 50% of the chemical industry's total emissions, making it a key area for reduction efforts [2]. - The EU's "Fit for 55" package and the upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will impose significant export pressures on industries, including fertilizers and hydrogen, highlighting the urgency for green ammonia and methanol development [2]. Group 2: Current Challenges - The green ammonia and methanol industry in China is still in the market cultivation stage, facing challenges in technology, market readiness, and economic viability [4]. - The production processes, including electrolysis and biomass routes, have technical limitations, such as unstable renewable energy resources and high costs associated with hydrogen storage and transportation [4]. - Economic feasibility remains a concern, as the cost of hydrogen production via electrolysis is currently 2 to 3 times higher than coal-based methods unless electricity prices drop significantly [4]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The decline in costs for solar panels and smart technology is expected to lower the price of renewable energy, with wind and solar electricity costs currently around 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per kilowatt-hour [6]. - The industry is encouraged to explore new technological pathways and collaborate with local renewable energy enterprises to secure cheaper electricity [7]. - The government is advised to maintain a rational approach in project approvals, allowing for pilot projects in specific regions to prevent investment waste [7]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Industry players should accelerate the operationalization of existing green ammonia and methanol projects while avoiding superficial promotion without substantial construction [7]. - Continuous improvement of standards for green ammonia and methanol is necessary, with existing standards already published by the China Fertilizer Association [7].

| | | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 尿素：高位震荡 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,892 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,894 | -17 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 186,596 | 413,756 | -227160 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 239,683 | 245,094 | -5411 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,355 | 7,352 | 3 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,580 | 1,566,907 | -866327 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 5 3 | 5 8 | - 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （ ...

本周化工市场综述 本周市场由于关税缓和超预期而上涨，但关税方案公布开始向下，其中申万化工指数上涨 1.82%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.7%，申万石化指数上涨 0.65%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.47%。标的方面，本周军工概念表现强势，比如：渝三峡 A、集泰股份、苏州龙杰、尤夫股份、吉林化纤，其次是机器人主题，比如：新瀚新材、七彩化学、斯迪克，最后是 关税缓和受益股，比如：聚合顺、安利股份、利安隆。关税方面，我们在上周周报强调关税有缓和的趋势，因为短 期关税冲突升级到了一个极端，逻辑上钟摆往回摆的概率提升，本周我们观察到中美各取消了共计 91%的加征关税， 无论是谈判的进展和关税的下降幅度均超预期，短期内前期超跌的出口链有修复的可能，比如：纺服链、电子材料 产业链；另外，在这 90 天的关税休战期，美国产业链加速补库的概率较高，库存低位+格局较佳+美国出口占比较大 的产品有可能会迎来量价齐升，但由于持续性看不清楚，未必会成为短期主线。油价方面，地缘风险边际向好，比 如：乌克兰准备无条件停火至少 30 天、伊朗称愿与美国达成协议，油价在接下来可能会逐步回归基本面，在需求没 有明显下行的前提下，我们认为油价 ...

在当前不确定且非常不乐观的国际政治经济形势下，中欧更需要加深合作，在多边平台上采用更公平的 贸易规则，争取最大化CBAM简化措施的利益，为长期可持续发展奠定基础。 中国和欧盟是重要的经贸合作伙伴，双边经济贸易合作关系持续保持良好的发展态势。其中，"一带一 路"绿色合作在中东欧取得重要进展。但是，近期欧盟推行的碳边境调节机制（CBAM）等绿色低碳政 策将给中欧未来低碳合作带来一定挑战。 欧盟碳边境调节机制的潜在影响 对于欧盟本身而言，一方面欧盟CBAM可能造成部分成员国投入成本上升，对欧盟国家的产出和就业的 影响存在显著差异，可能加剧不平等。尤其是像保加利亚、爱尔兰和希腊这些高度依赖非欧盟国家进口 的国家。另一方面，欧盟内部不平等问题也可能逐渐凸显。部分高度发达的国家，如德国、意大利和西 班牙，可能会受益于CBAM，而新成员国依赖于从非欧盟国家进口钢铁等高碳产品，则面临产出增长限 制。 对中国来说，CBAM的短期作用有限，长期影响较大。欧盟CBAM在初期仅纳入钢铁、铝、水泥、化肥 等行业，而中国出口欧盟产品以钢铁和铝产品为主，化肥、水泥等出口量较小。中国作为全球规模最大 的发展中国家，在未来一段时间内，工业化与 ...

本周化工市场综述 本周市场由于关税缓和超预期而上涨，但关税方案公布开始向下，其中申万化工指数上涨 1.82%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.7%，申万石化指数上涨 0.65%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.47%。标的方面，本周军工概念表现强势，比如：渝三峡 A、集泰股份、苏州龙杰、尤夫股份、吉林化纤，其次是机器人主题，比如：新瀚新材、七彩化学、斯迪克，最后是 关税缓和受益股，比如：聚合顺、安利股份、利安隆。关税方面，我们在上周周报强调关税有缓和的趋势，因为短 期关税冲突升级到了一个极端，逻辑上钟摆往回摆的概率提升，本周我们观察到中美各取消了共计 91%的加征关税， 无论是谈判的进展和关税的下降幅度均超预期，短期内前期超跌的出口链有修复的可能，比如：纺服链、电子材料 产业链；另外，在这 90 天的关税休战期，美国产业链加速补库的概率较高，库存低位+格局较佳+美国出口占比较大 的产品有可能会迎来量价齐升，但由于持续性看不清楚，未必会成为短期主线。油价方面，地缘风险边际向好，比 如：乌克兰准备无条件停火至少 30 天、伊朗称愿与美国达成协议，油价在接下来可能会逐步回归基本面，在需求没 有明显下行的前提下，我们认为油价 ...

"粮食的粮食"价格高位波动 进入旺季，尿素市场新一轮涨价行情启动。 5月以来，尿素期现价格持续上涨，刷新近半年新高，截至5月16日收盘，主力合约价格逐步回落至1877元/吨。 现货市场上，尿素价格波动较大，南华期货统计分析，目前主流区域中小颗粒尿素价格参约1820～1860元/吨。银河期货研究报告称，随着尿素进入需求旺 季，氮肥生产将全面启动，同时出口政策预期持续扰动尿素价格持续上涨，后期走势需进一步关注出口信息变动影响。 作为"粮食的粮食"，尿素是目前农业上使用量最多的高效氮肥，受天然气供应短缺、环保限产、煤价及国际氮肥市场价格上涨等因素影响，尿素价格波动成 为企业承储面临的问题。 "一直以来我国实施化肥淡季商业储备制度，不过这类储备项目的承储企业一般需保障化肥库存约3个月在库。"行业人士告诉记者，在此期间，储备化肥存 在价格下跌风险。对此，2021年郑商所推出尿素"商储无忧"项目，对参与国家商业化肥储备并存在风险对冲需求的企业提供套期保值的资金支持。当前2025 年度"商储无忧"项目正有序开展，基本做到了尿素主要产销省及粮食产区全覆盖。 "去年国储中标时尿素价格较高，但之后价格一路下跌，最低跌至1500元 ...

Group 1 - The overall fertilizer market is experiencing a "first decline, then rise" trend in Q1 2025, with initial supply-demand mismatches leading to continued low prices for coal chemical products, including urea and melamine [1] - In March, driven by spring farming demand and increased export expectations, urea prices rebounded quickly, positively impacting downstream product prices [1] - The company's overall gross margin decreased by 4 percentage points year-on-year but increased by nearly 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14%, indicating a rising trend [1] Group 2 - The company's revenue for Q1 reached 5.846 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 197.5 million yuan, with basic earnings per share at 16.3 cents [1] - The company has strengthened cost control, with the proportion of three expenses decreasing by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year, particularly financial expenses, which fell by 9% [1] Group 3 - Due to the decline in raw coal prices, the support for urea prices weakened, leading to a larger price drop for urea compared to cost reductions, resulting in a 23% year-on-year decline in overall gross margin [2] - However, with improvements in the fertilizer supply-demand landscape, product prices are gradually recovering, leading to a 26% quarter-on-quarter increase in gross margin [2] - The company's net profit, excluding non-recurring items, saw a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 89%, indicating a stable upward trend in operations [2]

债权人可采用现场、邮寄、电子邮件或传真的方式进行债权申报，具体方式 如下： （双休日及法定节假日除外） 深圳诺普信作物科学股份有限公司公告 证券代码：002215 证券简称：诺普信 公告编号：2025-021 深圳诺普信作物科学股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 深圳诺普信作物科学股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 16 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，会议审议通过了《关于 2023 年限制性股票激励计 划回购注销已不符合激励条件激励对象已获授但尚未解锁的限制性股票的议案》， 同意公司回购注销上述已不符合激励条件激励对象已获授但尚未解锁的限制性 股票，回购股份数量合计为 370,000 股，回购股份予以注销并减少公司注册资本。 注销完成后公司股份总数将变更为 1,004,821,310 股。 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》等相关法律、法规的规定，公司特此通知债 权人，自本通知公告之日起 45 日内，凭有效债权证明文件及凭证向公司要求清 偿债务或提供相应担保。债权人如逾期未向公司申报上述要求，不会因此影响其 债权的有效性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinzhengdai, is actively promoting its controlled-release fertilizer technology globally, aiming to establish itself as a leader in this sector while enhancing its product offerings and operational efficiency [2][3][6]. Group 1: Global Promotion of Controlled-Release Fertilizer - Jinzhengdai has initiated a global promotion action for controlled-release fertilizers, collaborating with various agricultural institutions and launching this initiative in Europe and Southeast Asia [2]. - The company has established its first overseas controlled-release fertilizer factory in the Netherlands and signed a strategic partnership with AgriAKU in Indonesia to promote its products in Southeast Asia [2][3]. - Future plans include collaborations with the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Global Fertilizer Industry Association to expand into Central and Eastern Europe, Vietnam, Japan, and Africa [2]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - Jinzhengdai aims to be a respected provider of comprehensive agricultural solutions, focusing on high-efficiency fertilizers, including controlled-release fertilizers, which are encouraged by the government [2]. - The company has developed a full range of plant nutrition products and established five major technical solutions to enhance crop yield and quality [2]. - The company is focusing on marketing breakthroughs and cost reduction as key strategies for 2025, emphasizing product transformation and digital transformation to improve sales [3][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In Q1 2025, Jinzhengdai reported revenues of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, but a net profit of only 8.8 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous periods [4][13]. - The company is addressing low capacity utilization and aims to improve operational efficiency through better resource allocation and management practices [3][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had total liabilities of 8.9 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 80.61%, indicating ongoing efforts to manage and reduce debt levels [8].