Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - EG futures and spot prices rose, with the main EG contract closing at 4,477 yuan/ton (+93 yuan/ton, +2.12% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market at 4,502 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton, +1.05% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). [2] - Concerns about the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry led to a sharp rise in the chemical sector on Wednesday afternoon. Most of South Korea's MEG production capacity has been shut down, with only four units in operation, totaling around 550,000 tons of ethylene glycol production capacity. The impact on EG is mainly on the cost side of ethylene prices. [2] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton (up $4/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). [2] - MEG inventory data from different sources showed different trends. According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), while according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). [3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, domestic EG supply is expected to see the total EG operating rate rise above 70%, and overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. The off - season for demand is over, and polyester load is expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The balance sheet for August - September shows a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand increasing. [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,477 yuan/ton, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,502 yuan/ton. The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton. [2] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton. The domestic total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%, and the syngas - made EG load has returned to a high level. [2][3] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the summary text. Only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" was mentioned. [21] Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data on downstream production, sales and operating rates were provided in the summary text. Only relevant figures were mentioned, such as long - filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, etc. [22][24] Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). Last week, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 141,000 tons, and this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 54,000 tons, with 43,000 tons at the secondary ports. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - South Korean petrochemical companies may cut 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which has significantly boosted the downstream prices of domestic olefin derivatives. South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for 3.5% of the total overseas pure benzene capacity, and the impact is limited. South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity, which may support overseas styrene prices. However, both products still face significant inventory pressure, and the potential impact on EB supply is greater than that on BZ in terms of price spreads. [3] - The high - level pure benzene port inventory has slightly declined, and the pure benzene basis has recently shown signs of stabilization and a slight increase. There are scheduled maintenance works for South Korean aromatics in August - September, and the import pressure has not further increased. The overall downstream operating rate remains relatively high, and the demand is at a seasonal peak, driving the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. For styrene, the port inventory has accumulated again, and the downstream still faces inventory pressure. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - No specific data analysis provided, only mentions figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [9][13][19] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 23), and the styrene main contract basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 331 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. [1] - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 173 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 158 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 54.6 US dollars/ton (- 15.1 US dollars/ton). [1] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 144,000 tons (- 2000 tons), and the operating rate of its downstream products such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+ 5.31%), phenol is 77.00% (+ 0.00%), aniline is 71.57% (- 1.89%), and adipic acid is 61.70% (+ 7.30%). [1] - Styrene East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 76,500 tons (+ 7000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+ 0.5%). [1] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 98 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 102 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+ 20 yuan/ton). [2] - EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+ 14.41%), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+ 1.70%), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+ 0.00%). [2] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1820 yuan/ton (- 25), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1336 yuan/ton (+ 50). [1]

丙烯日报 | 2025-08-21 韩国石化业去产能预期提振丙烯价格 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6446元/吨（+42），丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6390元/吨（-20）， 丙烯华东基差-21元/吨（-42），丙烯华北基差-56元/吨（-62）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR201美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR102美元/吨（+1），进口利润-228元/吨（-4），厂内库存36850吨（+2430）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率38%（+0.84%），生产利润-120元/吨（-10）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（-1%），生产利润-747 元/吨（+33）；正丁醇开工率88%（-1%），生产利润-204元/吨（+32）；辛醇开工率87%（+10%），生产利润527元/ 吨（+14）；丙烯酸开工率75%（-4%），生产利润463元/吨（+50）；丙烯腈开工率72%（-2%），生产利润-510元/吨 （+42）；酚酮开工率77%（+0%），生产利润-751元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期，宏观情 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a rise in opening prices, with institutions indicating that the "anti-involution" trend may lead to a recovery in chemical industry prosperity, benefiting leading companies [1] - Key factors for potential investment opportunities in the chemical industry include stricter new project approvals, the positive impact of old facility renovations, attempts at industry self-discipline, and rising energy consumption standards [1] - As of August 21, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) increased by 1.25%, with notable stock performances including: Nucor Titanium (002145) up 8.76%, Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) up 5.24%, and Dongfang Shenghong (000301) up 3.24% [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) accounted for 43.54% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309) and Yilong Co. (000792) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is rated as "1", indicating a "slightly strong" outlook [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: With a significant reduction in overnight crude oil inventories and a strong rebound in oil prices, the short - term downside space for PX's unilateral price may be limited. Supported by cost and with improved demand expectations, and a tight supply - demand pattern, the unilateral price of PX is expected to rebound. For the spread, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spread. The PX - naphtha valuation is at a moderately high level, with a tight supply - demand pattern in September and downward pressure on PXN after the 01 contract [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be held. With an improvement in terminal textile and clothing demand and a bottom - up rebound in polyester operating rates, the unilateral price of PTA is strong. The price and basis strengthened yesterday, and the downstream's willingness to hold goods increased [7]. - MEG: With a decrease in imports and arrivals and marginal destocking, the unilateral price of MEG is strong. The reduction of naphtha cracking capacity by the South Korean petrochemical group has disrupted the market sentiment of olefin - related products. Domestically, plants are operating at full capacity, imports are low, inventories are decreasing, and polyester operating rates are rising. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained. In the long - term, the supply pressure of new plants in the 01 contract will limit the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On the 20th, PX prices increased, with two October Asian spot transactions at $839 and $838, and one November Asian spot at $836. The PX valuation on the 20th was $837/ton, up $2 from the 19th. There were concerns about weak PX spot prices due to over - capacity in China, but hopes are placed on winter demand for polyester clothing [2][3]. - PTA: On the 20th, the PTA spot price remained at 4,690 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 2 [5]. - MEG: South Korean petrochemical companies will cut capacity and restructure. A 750,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has restarted, and there were tender transactions on the 20th [5]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 20th declined overall, with individual differences. The average sales volume was estimated to be slightly below 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were generally average, with an average sales volume of 57% as of 3:00 pm [5][6]. Futures and Spot Data | Product | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6,844 | 6774 | 1.03% | $838/ton | $2.83 | 255.5 | 2.5 | | PTA | 4,778 | 44 | 0.93% | 4,686 yuan/ton | - 4 | 197.31 | - 10.67 | | MEG | 4,477 | 53 | 1.20% | 4,502 yuan/ton | 47 | - | - | | PF | 6,504 | 72 | 1.12% | - | - | - | - | | SC | 482.8 | - 1.4 | - 0.29% | - | - | - | - |

Group 1 - The Taiwanese government faces a significant increase in tariffs, with a new 20% tariff on top of existing rates, leading to a potentially disastrous "20%+N" tax burden on local industries [1][2] - Key sectors such as textiles, petrochemicals, steel, and machine tools are expected to be severely impacted, with the machine tool industry facing a combined tax rate of 24.7%, exacerbating competitive disadvantages against South Korean and Japanese products [2][3] - The Taiwanese government's response includes a commitment to increase investment in the U.S. by $400 billion, which is equivalent to half of Taiwan's annual GDP, indicating a willingness to spend taxpayer money to appease U.S. demands [2][3] Group 2 - The Taiwanese administration's approach of yielding to U.S. demands has not resulted in favorable outcomes, instead leading to increased pressure and unfavorable treatment compared to other trade partners [1][3] - The lack of transparency in negotiations, with claims of confidentiality, raises concerns about the effectiveness of the talks and the potential negative implications for Taiwan's economy [2] - The ongoing reliance on U.S. support while neglecting to strengthen cross-strait relations may lead to further economic challenges for Taiwan, as the government continues to pursue a confrontational stance against mainland China [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is facing challenges such as declining product prices, intense competition, and anti-dumping lawsuits, prompting the government to implement measures for capacity assessment, elimination of redundant facilities, and technological upgrades to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The petrochemical industry's profits have been declining, with total revenue projected at 14.6 trillion yuan in 2024, but profits falling below 1 trillion yuan, continuing a downward trend of 8.8% in 2025 [2][25] - A capacity warning report identified 14 high-risk products, including refining, propylene, and PVC, and 10 products with relatively high risk, such as soda ash and ethylene glycol, indicating structural overcapacity issues [3][4] - Private enterprises are better positioned for transformation in the petrochemical sector due to advanced technology and willingness to invest in energy-saving modifications, while state-owned enterprises face greater pressure to upgrade outdated facilities [5][10] - New capacity additions before the carbon peak include an increase of 40 million tons in primary refining capacity, which is aligned with advanced technology and will not lead to overcapacity [6][10] - The development of the petrochemical industry chain relies heavily on policy guidance and downstream market demand, with emerging markets like pharmaceuticals and renewable energy driving growth in biodegradable materials and photovoltaic materials [10][12] Additional Important Content - The petrochemical industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, particularly in low-end bulk products, while mid-to-high-end products remain scarce and reliant on imports [7][8] - The need for upgrading old facilities is critical, especially in traditional refining and caustic soda plants, many of which are over 20 years old [9] - The government is encouraging the elimination of outdated capacity and extending the industrial chain into new materials, with a focus on market-driven development rather than strict regulatory measures [17][27] - The petrochemical sector's future planning must balance specific development directions with market demand to avoid misleading the market and causing overcapacity [18] - The overall profitability of the petrochemical industry is under pressure, with a reported profit decline of 2.3% in the first half of the year and an 8.8% decline the previous year [25] Conclusion - The petrochemical industry is at a critical juncture, facing both challenges and opportunities for transformation. The emphasis on technological upgrades, market responsiveness, and policy support will be essential for navigating the current landscape and achieving sustainable growth.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 8 - 9月受韩国纯苯装置检修影响，我国进口端纯苯供应预计下降，国内供需双增，8 - 9月纯苯供需格局有所好转，但隐性库存高企且终端需求不佳，短期基本面改善有限，需观察后续传统需求旺季是否带来需求增量 [3] - 苯乙烯近端价格低，下游工厂抄底意愿增强，原料补库基本结束，后续出口端有需求增量，8 - 9月苯乙烯供应过剩程度减轻 [3] - 当前苯乙烯绝对价格处于近几年历史低位且旺季预期无法证伪，短期单边谨慎做空，品种间可关注苯乙烯大装置落地时间，考虑逢高做缩纯苯苯乙烯价差 [3] - 今日受原料端供应缩量消息影响，午后化工板块整体偏强运行 [3] 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - **Hedging Strategies for Styrene** - **Inventory Management**: When finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7350 - 7400 yuan/ton and sell 50% of call options (EB2510C7500) at 75 - 90 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell 75% of put options (EB2510P7100) at 90 - 110 to lock in procurement costs [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - For pure benzene, supply from imports is expected to decline due to South Korean plant maintenance, but high hidden inventory and poor terminal demand limit short - term improvement in fundamentals [3] - For styrene, downstream restocking is mostly completed, and there is expected demand growth in exports, reducing the supply surplus in August - September [3] 3.3利多解读 - Recent downstream projects of pure benzene have been put into production, improving the supply - demand pattern [6] - As of August 18, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% compared to the previous period, with visible inventory gradually decreasing [6] - There are many rumors of styrene exports, with expected demand growth in the export market [6] - The return of multiple maintenance devices in the EPS and PS industries, especially EPS, has led to a significant increase in the operating rate and demand for styrene [6] - South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons annually [6] 3.4利空解读 - New styrene production capacity is starting to show, with two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical to be put into operation in September and October, ensuring sufficient supply [7] - As of August 18, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 1.27 million tons (8.53%) compared to the previous period [7] - The production schedule of three major white - goods in late July shows poor production plans, leading to a pessimistic outlook for styrene terminal consumption in the third quarter [7] 3.5 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene shows different degrees of daily changes, with styrene basis generally decreasing [8] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - paper goods spreads and styrene - pure benzene spreads, also show certain daily changes [9] 3.6 Industrial Chain Price Data - The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, show different daily and weekly changes [9][10] - The profits of different products in the industrial chain, including pure benzene production profit, styrene integration profit, and downstream product profits, also vary [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: PE production last week increased 0.14% to 661,100 tons, and capacity utilization rose 1.1% to 86.82%. With the impact of shutdown devices expanding, this week's PE production and capacity utilization are expected to decline [2]. - Demand side: PE downstream product average开工率 increased 0.4% last week, with the agricultural film开工率 up 0.8%. The agricultural film is transitioning to the peak season, with greenhouse film orders gradually accumulating, and food and daily - chemical packaging film having sporadic orders, mainly for rigid demand. Overall, PE demand is seasonally increasing [2]. - Inventory: Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.76% to 444,500 tons, and social inventory decreased 1.22% to 568,700 tons, with low overall inventory pressure [2]. - Cost: The situation of strong supply and weak demand for crude oil continues, and positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks are continuously released. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - Technical analysis: For the L2601 daily K - line, pay attention to the support around 7,230 yuan/ton and the pressure around 7,400 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread is - 39, unchanged [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 400,529 lots, and the open interest is 381,563 lots, an increase of 21,423 lots [2]. - Top 20 positions: The buy order volume is 316,320 lots, an increase of 12,132 lots; the sell order volume is 342,353 lots, an increase of 9,715 lots; the net buy order volume is - 26,033 lots, an increase of 2,417 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,291.3 yuan/ton, down 12.61 yuan/ton; in East China, it is 7,380 yuan/ton, down 8.57 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 15.7, up 14.39 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.14 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation The national PE petrochemical开工率 is 84.2%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Packaging film开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 49.07%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. - Pipe开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) pipes is 30%, up 1 percentage point [2]. - Agricultural film开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film is 13.82%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 9.79%, down 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.96%, down 1.71 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 9.34%, down 1.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.31%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China will conduct a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, gradually eliminate small facilities, upgrade backward production capacity, and direct investment to advanced materials [2]. - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene production was 661,100 tons, a 0.14% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase [2]. - From August 8th to 14th, the average开工率 of China's polyethylene downstream products increased 0.4% from the previous period [2]. - As of August 13th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 444,500 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period; as of August 15th, the polyethylene social inventory was 556,500 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous period [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in loans issued by the National Development Bank (NDB) for advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, amounting to 385 billion yuan from January to July, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.3% [1] - The NDB has intensified its efforts in corporate engagement, customizing financial service plans for individual enterprises, particularly focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, domestic large aircraft, high-end equipment manufacturing, and new materials [1] - In Shanghai, the NDB's branch has increased R&D loan disbursements to support 15 enterprises in high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy vehicles, addressing the significant funding needs for R&D [1] Group 2 - In Liaoning, the NDB's branch is focusing resources on four trillion-yuan industrial bases and 22 key industrial clusters, providing long-term financing support to companies like Shenyang Siasun Robot and Ansteel Group, thereby aiding the province's equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The NDB plans to align its efforts with the recent guidelines issued by the People's Bank of China and other departments to provide long-term financing support for key industrial chains, enhancing financial services for characteristic industrial clusters and key enterprises [2]