1至10月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖说，扣除价格因素，固定 资产投资保持小幅增长，投资的实物工作量仍是增加的。尽管增速放缓，但投资结构在优化，前10个月 制造业投资同比增长2.7%。 权威解读｜从10月数据看中国经济增长点 国家统计局11月14日发布数据显示，10月份，生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动 能培育壮大，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业看，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。其中，装备制造业增加值增长8%，明显快于规模以 上工业增长，对规模以上工业增长支撑作用明显。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事陈雳说，前10个月首先消费复苏跑出了加速度。此外，新质生产力开始挑大 梁，尤其是高技术产业投资呈现爆发性增长。新质生产力从概念角度加速转化为现实的产能，尤其是机 器人产业、高新技术产业、AI等一系列大发展带动了中国经济的高质量运行。 廖博说，本次新型政策性金融工具加大了对经济大省的支持力度，同时还支持了一批符合条件的重要行 业、重点领域民间投资项目。 ...

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9% [1] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 7.2% [1] - The overall economic performance remains stable with a focus on high-quality development and structural adjustments [1] Consumption Trends - New consumption formats, models, and scenarios are expanding, with digital, green, and smart product consumption rapidly growing [2] - From January to October, online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales [2] Investment Insights - Effective investment is being expanded in key areas and weak links, with significant growth in high-tech sectors [2] - Investment in the aerospace and aircraft manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year-on-year from January to October [2] Export Performance - From January to October, the export value of electromechanical products accounted for 60.7% of total exports, indicating strong support for foreign trade [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is steadily moving towards mid-to-high-end production, with the added value of equipment manufacturing above designated size increasing by 9.5% [2] - Equipment manufacturing contributed 58.7% to the growth of industrial added value above designated size [2] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries are increasingly playing a leading role, with rapid development in the digital economy and green low-carbon transformation [3] - From January to October, the added value of digital industry manufacturing increased by 9.5%, while smart device manufacturing and electronic components manufacturing grew by 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively [3] - The transition from old to new driving forces is ongoing, with a positive trend towards high-quality economic development [3]

Economic Performance - The province's major economic indicators accelerated in October, maintaining a steady and positive trend, with growth achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth [1] - The industrial production showed robust growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 7.9% year-on-year in October, surpassing the national average by 3.0 percentage points [1] Industrial Growth - The added value of key industrial chains increased by 9.0% year-on-year in October, contributing 74.9% to the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size [1] - The electronic information industry experienced significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, which is 10.0 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector also saw a strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% in October [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the province grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% from January to October, and an 8.2% increase when excluding real estate development investment, outperforming the national growth rate of 6.5% [2] - Investment in key industrial chains rose by 16.8% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall investment growth [2] - Private investment maintained a strong growth trend, increasing by 7.3% year-on-year from January to October, consistently outpacing overall investment growth since April of the previous year [2] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand accelerated, with the total retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 267.32 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - From January to October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 2,372.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, exceeding the national growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [2] High-Quality Development - The province is advancing high-quality development, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increasing by 19.0% and 16.5% year-on-year in October, respectively [3] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 6.7% year-on-year from January to October, outpacing the overall fixed asset investment growth [3] - The green development sector showed steady progress, with the added value of the energy-saving and environmental protection industry increasing by 9.0% year-on-year in October [3]

十月"数据中的关键信息点 - 张瑜旬度 20251116 摘要 企业中长期贷款减少验证了生产性投资回落的判断，企业装置贷款连续 4 个月同比减少也支持此观点，预示中期物价均衡的合理性。10 月 CPI 同比转正至 0.2%，超预期，主要受食品和黄金价格影响，但这些因素 的持续性有限，年底翘尾效应或影响明年 CPI 读数。 必选消费品增速稳定，服务业零售额累计增速为 5.3%，表明广义消费 逐步恢复，但受政策影响大。若补贴政策持续加码，服务消费进一步支 持，需求端有望实现更好表现。装备制造业和生产性服务业表现突出， 成为经济增长的重要引擎。 政策对消费数据有显著影响，扣除补贴相关的耐用品和波动商品后，其 余部分增速稳定在 4%-4.2%，低于 GDP 增速。补贴政策的节奏对整体 消费数据至关重要，维持或加码补贴有望进一步提升商品与服务消费。 2026 年宏观经济展望需关注未来几个月的数据演变、补贴接续、财政 扩张政策取向以及供给侧出清与需求侧政策配合效果。这些因素将决定 2026 年的宏观判断，并影响整体价格弹性的变化。 10 月份居民贷款表现不佳，经营性个人贷款同比少增显著，表明居民层 面的弱势与经营行为更相 ...

事件点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 经济短期回落，政策发力下全年经济发展目标可期 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 10 月经济数据，规上工增当月同比增长 4.9%（前 值为+6.5%，下同），环比增长 0.17%（+0.64%）；社零当月同比增长 2.9%（+3.0%）， 固投累计同比减少 1.7%（-0.5%）。 10 月生产消费短期回落的可能原因 10 月规模以上工业增加值同比环比均有所回落。10 月生产端受双节假期前部分 需求提前释放，企业为应对节前备货而提前安排生产，叠加中美关系再度紧张对 制造业出口的扰动及工作日数量减少的影响，规模以上工业增加值同比环比均有 所下滑。此前公布的 PMI 数据中已有显示，10 月制造业生产指数为 49.7%，5 月以来首次落入收缩区间，同时 10 月出口自 2025 年 3 月以来首次负增长，两项 数据已对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic data for October, highlighting three different "temperatures" of the economy: sectors that feel better than the economy, those that feel similar, and those that feel worse. It emphasizes the divergence in economic performance across different regions and industries, as well as the impact of policy support on various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Better than Economic Conditions - The productive service industry and equipment manufacturing are performing strongly, with the productive service sector's contribution to GDP rising to approximately 9.3% by the third quarter. In October, the information industry production index grew by 13%, marking eight consecutive months of growth, while the rental and business services sector grew by 8.2% [5][15]. - Equipment manufacturing saw an increase of 8% in value added in October, with significant contributions from the automotive and electronics sectors, which accounted for 42.1% of the growth in large-scale industry [6][15]. Group 2: Similar to Economic Conditions - Essential consumption showed a growth rate of 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% in the previous month, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.4% from January to October, surpassing last year's 4.0% [7][21]. - Service consumption, as measured by retail sales in the service sector, had a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% from January to October, slightly better than the previous value of 5.2% [8][21]. Group 3: Worse than Economic Conditions - Productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is declining, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.7% from January to October, down from 4.0% previously. The middle-stream investment in manufacturing has decreased significantly, with a growth rate of only 1.43% [10][25]. - Subsidized consumption, particularly in six categories of durable goods, saw a negative growth rate of -2.6% in October, a significant drop from the previous month's 3.9%. Notably, automotive and home appliance sectors experienced declines of -6.6% and -14.6%, respectively [10][25]. - The construction chain, including infrastructure and real estate investments, continued to decline, with significant drops in production rates for related materials like crude steel and cement [11][26].

从结构看，装备制造业在规模以上工业中的占比已连续多月保持在三成以上，汽车、通用设备、专用设 备、电气机械等行业表现相对突出。业内人士认为，这组亮眼的数据反映出工业结构的变化——工业增 长越来越多的依托技术密集、附加值较高的装备制造业。 国家统计局日前发布的数据显示，10月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，环比增长0.17%。 其中装备制造业增加值同比增长8.0%。 中国城市发展研究院投资部副主任袁帅在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，装备制造业的增速，既有 政策推动，客观上提升了企业更新产线、上新装备的积极性；也有企业端主动调结构，带动装备制造环 节保持较高景气度。 宏观数据之外，下游企业在设备更新中的动向，也能侧面印证增长的"含金量"。汽摩配是装备制造的重 要下游应用领域之一，既连着汽车产业链，也连着外贸订单。 全国工商联汽摩配商会常务会长、全联汽配展组委会主任应慧鹏对《证券日报》记者表示，今年汽摩配 企业在设备更新和技改上的投入，整体上是呈现上升趋势，在规模以上企业和上市公司中尤为明显。 应慧鹏介绍，首先，在软件上，加速软件智能化的投入，包括大模型、数字服务等。其次，在硬件上， 企业开始购置大型精 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The economic data for October highlights three temperature levels: strong, moderate, and weak[2] - The production service industry and equipment manufacturing showed strong performance, with the production index for the information industry growing by 13% and equipment manufacturing by 8%[4] - Essential consumption grew by 4.2% in October, surpassing the previous value of 3.4%, while cumulative growth for the first ten months was 4.4%, better than last year's 4.0%[19] Group 2: Investment and Construction Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in October, down from -1.9% previously, and a cumulative growth of 2.7% for the first ten months[22] - Infrastructure and real estate investments continued to decline, with real estate investment down by 23% in October compared to the previous month[44] - The overall growth rate for subsidy-related durable goods consumption dropped to -2.6% in October, down from 3.9%[7] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The government is expected to support technology innovation sectors where sentiment is better than economic performance, while consumption sectors may see further growth opportunities[2] - If economic growth deviates from annual targets, policies may flexibly increase support for subsidy-related consumption and construction chains[2]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production in October continued to show steady growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and a cumulative growth of 6.1% from January to October, highlighting the characteristics of "new quality productivity leading and structural optimization upgrading" [1][6][18] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors led the growth with rates exceeding 8% and 7% respectively, while new products like 3D printing equipment and electric vehicles maintained double-digit growth, becoming the core engines of industrial growth [1][6][18] - The industrial economy is accelerating its transition from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, but attention is needed on the insufficient vitality of small and medium-sized private enterprises, which requires targeted financing support and policy measures to unlock growth potential across the entire industrial chain [1][7][18] Group 2: Consumer Market - The consumer market in October continued to expand in scale and improve in quality, characterized by "service-led growth and structural optimization upgrading," with total retail sales increasing by 2.9% year-on-year and a cumulative growth of 4.3% from January to October [2][8][23] - The growth rate of service retail accelerated to 5.3%, with significant increases in experiential service consumption such as cultural, sports, and transportation services, indicating a shift in consumer demand from goods to services [2][8][23] - The rural market showed a notable growth rate higher than urban areas, supported by the improvement of the county commercial system and rural revitalization strategies, reflecting the continuous release of rural consumption potential [2][8][23] Group 3: Investment Structure - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with the core characteristic of "real estate dragging down significantly while new momentum breaks through," indicating a structural change in investment dynamics [3][11][25] - Manufacturing investment continued to grow by 2.7%, becoming a key pillar for stabilizing investment, particularly in high-tech industries such as information services and aerospace equipment [3][11][25] - The residential market remains in deep adjustment, with both sales area and sales volume declining, but structural changes are noteworthy, such as the increasing proportion of existing home sales and the stabilization of housing prices in core urban areas [3][11][25] Group 4: Employment Market - The employment situation in 2025 is characterized by "overall stability with progress, prominent structural differentiation, and urgent quality improvement," with the urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% from January to October [13] - Employment policies have effectively stabilized the job market, with significant reductions in costs for enterprises, but structural mismatches and low employment quality remain concerns [13] - The average weekly working hours for employees reached 48.4 hours, indicating hidden employment pressures as companies prefer to extend existing employees' hours rather than create new positions [13]

Economic Overview - In October, some economic indicators showed a downward trend due to last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [2][6] - Despite the downturn, there were positive signs such as a rebound in service retail sales driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating significant consumption potential [2][6] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [6][12] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end production, with equipment manufacturing increasing by 8%, outpacing overall industrial growth [6][10] Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [7][14] - High-tech sectors such as aerospace and information services saw significant investment growth, with aerospace manufacturing up by 19.7% and information services up by 32.7% [7][12] Trade Dynamics - In October, the total import and export volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [8][9] - The trade growth slowdown was attributed to last year's high base, with some exports delayed from September due to typhoons [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment [3][13] - Recent policies include the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the acceleration of local government bond usage to support effective investment [13][14] Economic Outlook - Despite the challenges, the overall economic operation remains stable, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [12][15] - Analysts suggest that additional policy measures may be necessary to counteract weak demand and support economic recovery, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]