Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a "neutral" rating for Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price of $1,220, citing strong content library and advertising growth potential as long-term advantages, but short-term stock price reflects optimistic expectations, necessitating attention to content performance and monetization progress in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - Netflix's content lineup for the second half of 2025 is described as one of the strongest ever, featuring returns of popular series such as "Squid Game" Season 3, "Wednesday" Season 2, and "Stranger Things" Season 5, along with new shows and sports live content, expected to significantly boost user growth and engagement [1] - The company is projected to add 4.5 million net new users in Q2, including 750,000 in North America, and a total of 25.5 million net new users for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 2: Advertising Business Insights - Netflix's ad-supported subscription tier currently has approximately 94 million monthly active users (MAU), which could reach 170 million when including non-profile viewers, with users in the ad tier watching an average of 41 hours per month, comparable to ad-free standard tier users [2] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by the end of 2025, ad tier users will exceed 60 million, corresponding to about 140 million MAU, with advertising revenue (excluding subscriptions) expected to double to $3 billion [2] Group 3: Financial Guidance and Expectations - Netflix maintains its revenue guidance for 2025 at $43.5 to $44.5 billion, with an operating margin of 29% and free cash flow of $8 billion, but actual revenue performance may exceed the midpoint due to a weaker dollar [2] - Based on strong content in the second half, recent price increases, advertising business growth, and favorable exchange rates, investor expectations for 2025 guidance may be raised, potentially extending into 2026-2027 [2] - The forecast for Netflix's 2025 revenue is $44.4 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, with an operating margin improvement to 29.6%, content cash spending of $17.7 billion, and free cash flow expected to reach $8.4 billion, a 21% increase [2]

上周，LV发布的一则招聘广告引起了很多人的注意："LV零售练习生限量开放"。 知道的是奢侈品公司在招管培生，不知道的以为LV打算进军内娱成立自己的偶像天团。 图源：小红书@恰恰恰好 当其他人自嘲"你说粉领娇嫩，如今月薪3000"时，文科生找工作的鄙视链顶端始终站着"三巨头"：奢侈品集团、快消集 团、以及时尚顶刊。 你能在社交媒体上看到不少关于"光鲜亮丽"的描述： 比起互联网的苦，这里每个人看起来都很注重"work life balance"。他们的实习vlog里除了穿着正装坐在电脑前打字，也 会出现明星晚宴、豪华下午茶，以及写字楼底下的精品咖啡。 他们享受着多元、开放、国际化的办公氛围，还有外企的高福利。每周总有几个meeting要和"欧洲总部那边的领导"一起 开，所以实习生们每个人都说着一口流利的英语，日常工作语言是"掺杂了20%英文单词的中文"。 他们一般来自985、211或海外高校、文科社科专业居多；手握4段社团经验、3个竞赛、2个校级荣誉；从大一就开始实 习，经历垂直、人脉硬挺；总之，很卷。 他们是实习公司的忠实消费者：背着LV去LV上班；上午在工位上分析明星穿的本季新品，下午就去楼下SKP买了同款。 ...

据智通财经报道，近日，高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津发布名为《中国民营企业的回归：潮流已经逆 转》的研究报告。刘劲津指出，在各种宏观、政策和微观因素驱动下，中国民营企业的中期投资前景正 在改善。 最新研报仿效美股"七巨头"，列出了中国"十巨头"，即高盛特别看好的十大中国民营上市公司。他们分 别是：腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米、比亚迪、美团、网易、美的、恒瑞医药、携程和安踏。 这些公司覆盖了互动媒体、零售、科技硬件、汽车、餐饮、娱乐、家用耐用消费品、医药、酒店和纺织 服装等多个子行业。它们共占MSCI中国指数42%的权重，日均交易额达110亿美元，显示出极高的市场 影响力和投资吸引力。 从主题上看，"民营十巨头"代表了人工智能/技术发展、自给自足、全球化、服务消费及中国股东回报 改善等五大投资趋势。 高盛认为，中国"民营十巨头"具备类似"美股七姐妹"的市场主导潜力，可能在未来进一步提升中国股市 的集中度，改变投资者对中国资产的认知。 此外，高盛还特别提及，AI技术正重塑竞争格局，大型民企在AI投资、开发和商业化方面表现更为突 出。 高盛估算，AI技术的广泛应用可在未来十年中每年推动中国企业盈利增长2.5%，而民企在其定义 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares in terms of earnings growth due to a more technology-oriented industry structure and lower sensitivity to price fluctuations [1] - In 2024, Hong Kong's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 10.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than A-shares' decline of 3%. Excluding financials, Hong Kong's growth rate is 11.7%, while A-shares (non-financial) are at -13% [1] - Hong Kong's valuation is more attractive, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a PE ratio of 10.6, compared to 19.3 for the Wind All A Index. The technology sector's PE of 20 is also notably lower than the ChiNext Index's 31 [1] Group 2 - Foreign capital is accelerating its allocation to Hong Kong stocks due to low valuations, improving earnings, and advantages from regulatory openness, with an average daily net inflow of southbound funds reaching 6.1 billion yuan, up from 3 billion yuan last year [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (code: 513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (code: 931573), which selects up to 50 high-quality companies from the TMT sector listed within the Stock Connect range, aiming to reflect the overall performance of technology companies available for investment through the Stock Connect [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3377 points, down 0.75%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10122.11 points, down 1.1% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15040 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, only 4 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military, and electric power and utilities, while comprehensive finance, media, and textile and apparel sectors faced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, the S&P 500 down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% [2][4] - Major technology stocks also fell, with Nvidia dropping over 2% and Facebook down more than 1% [2][4] Financial Data - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion more than the same period last year [9][16] - As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [9][16] Key News - The State Council held a meeting to deploy pilot measures for the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, aiming to replicate and promote these measures to enhance high-level opening-up and deep reforms [14] - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo concluded with 176 signed projects amounting to 11.39 billion USD, marking a 45.8% increase in project numbers and a 10.6% increase in project value compared to the previous expo [18]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is considered overvalued based on all valuation metrics tracked by Bank of America, but this is seen as a characteristic of the high-quality, tech-driven index rather than a flaw [1] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 21 times, approximately 35% higher than its historical average, with all 20 valuation metrics monitored by Bank of America indicating overvaluation [1] - The composition of the S&P 500 has evolved significantly, with nearly 70% of its constituents being capital-intensive manufacturing stocks in 1980, now reduced to less than 20% [1] Group 2 - The valuation premium of about 40% for the U.S. compared to Europe and Asia is justified due to superior balance sheets, higher corporate transparency, and stronger long-term growth potential [2] - U.S. leverage is only half that of other global regions, with lower earnings volatility compared to Europe and higher free cash flow per share than Asia and Europe [2] - Structural advantages such as the dollar's status as a reserve currency, energy independence, and dominance in technology suggest that the valuation gap is unlikely to narrow [2] Group 3 - Bank of America's tactical model suggests investors focus on U.S. sectors such as communication services, utilities, and technology, identifying interactive media and services, metals and mining, and independent power and renewable energy as the most "investable" industries [3] - Outside the U.S., it is recommended to prioritize U.S. utility companies over Asian counterparts, choose Asian communication service companies over European ones, and consider European non-essential consumer goods companies over U.S. companies [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has introduced the concept of "Chinese Prominent 10," which includes major private companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, aiming to identify core assets in the Chinese stock market with long-term dominance potential [1][2] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in earnings over the next two years [1][2] - The "Chinese Prominent 10" spans various high-growth sectors, including technology, consumer goods, and automotive, reflecting new economic drivers such as AI, self-sufficiency, globalization, and service consumption upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The selected "Chinese Prominent 10" companies include Tencent ($601 billion), Alibaba ($289 billion), Xiaomi ($146 billion), BYD ($121 billion), Meituan ($102 billion), NetEase ($86 billion), Midea ($78 billion), Hengrui Medicine ($51 billion), Trip.com ($43 billion), and Anta ($35 billion) [2] - These companies collectively account for a daily trading volume of $11 billion, indicating significant market influence and investment appeal [2] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for these companies is 16 times, with a forward price-to-earnings growth (fPEG) ratio of 1.1, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Magnificent 7" with a P/E of 28.5 and fPEG of 1.8 [2] Group 3 - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the average increase in stock prices for these ten companies has been 54%, with a year-to-date rise of 24%, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 33 and 8 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 4 - Following a significant market value loss of nearly $4 trillion since late 2020, private enterprises in China are showing signs of strong recovery, with profits and return on equity (ROE) rebounding by 22% and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, since 2022 [4] - Recent policies have increased the focus on private enterprises, boosting confidence among entrepreneurs, as evidenced by the private enterprise symposium in February and the introduction of the first Private Economy Promotion Law in April [4] - The rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly with the emergence of models like DeepSeek-R1, have enhanced market optimism towards technology-driven private enterprises [4] Group 5 - The concentration of the Chinese stock market is relatively low, with the top ten companies accounting for only 17% of the total market capitalization, compared to 33% in the U.S. and 30% in other emerging markets [6] - As leading companies expand their dominance, market concentration is expected to increase in the coming years [6] Group 6 - The investment interest from private enterprises is anticipated to support organic growth and acquisitions, aided by a more transparent and relaxed merger and acquisition framework [7] Group 7 - The average turnover rate of the top ten companies in China over the past decade has been only 12%, indicating strong competitive advantages and market "stickiness" among leading firms [8] - Factors such as capital expenditure, R&D investment, and market concentration are positively correlated with subsequent stock returns and market share representation [8] Group 8 - AI technology is reshaping the competitive landscape, with large private enterprises leveraging their customer base, data accumulation, and investment capabilities to excel in AI development and commercialization [9][10] - Private enterprises are leading the "going global" strategy, with overseas sales increasing from 10% in 2017 to an estimated 17% in 2024 [10] - Companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows are better positioned to capitalize on overseas market opportunities, where profit margins can be significantly higher than in domestic markets [10] Group 9 - Despite ongoing improvements in fundamentals, the valuations of the "Chinese Prominent 10" remain at historical lows, with an average trading valuation of 13.9 times the expected P/E ratio, only 22% higher than the MSCI China Index [11] - If these private enterprises achieve similar valuation premiums as their U.S. counterparts, their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding approximately $313 billion in market value [11]

风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，地方成建制连锁品牌仍然稀缺，看好存量头部机构持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：宏观经济影响奢侈品销售表现，景气略有承压，但部分抓住需求趋势的品牌表现突出，建议关注。 咖啡茶饮：行业景气度稳健向上，京东近期减少中小商家外卖补贴力度，关注平台补贴节奏变化对行业影响。 OTA：行业景气度稳健向上，旅游大盘稳健增长，OTA 渠道价值依旧不容忽视，携程海外业务"招兵买马"加速扩 张。 电商：电商大盘景气略有承压，阿里/京东/美团在电商&外卖&即时零售上的竞争依旧持续，近期部分地区国补暂 停;电商平台依旧处于"618"活动大促期，关注大促收官平台表现。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需相关的优质互联网资产，规模效应持续驱动盈利杠杆释放，行业高景气度维 持，我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台。本周 TME 拟全资收购喜马拉雅，音乐和长音频形成用户和内容互补。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：本周《Genius 法案》通过美参议 ...

讲好企业家故事，弘扬企业家精神 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于中国企业家杂志 ，作者陈浩 中国企业家杂志 . "三驾马车"落位，迪士尼能否撼动Netflix王位？ 作者丨陈浩 编辑丨张昊 来源丨中国企业家杂志 在完全收购流媒体平台 Hulu后，迪士尼终于敢把眼睛"瞄"向Netflix。 2025年6月10日，迪士尼正式宣布，将向康卡斯特 旗下 NBCUniversal额外支付约4.387亿美元， 收购Hulu剩余33%的股权，并明确表示该交易将于7月24日之前完成。 Hulu拥有超5 4 00万用户数，加上迪士尼本来1.2亿的用户数，离Netflix巅峰用户规模——3亿，近 了一大步。 科技博客 Business Insider的分析师曾指出，迪士尼对Hulu的收购会加剧其债务压力，但管理层最 终还是选择"下重本赌这一平台"。在对Hulu 剩余 33 % 股份 的收购上，迪士尼已 累计 付出了超 90亿美元。 2019年，迪士尼通过713亿美元并购21世纪福克斯关键资产，取得 了 Hulu 67%股权 。 该 收购 还 约定 2023年起，康卡斯特 将 出售 Hulu剩余股权 于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney's acquisition of Hulu aims to strengthen its position against Netflix, with a focus on integrating content and expanding user base [3][8][39] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Disney announced the acquisition of the remaining 33% stake in Hulu from Comcast for approximately $438.7 million, expected to be completed by July 24 [4] - The total investment in Hulu has exceeded $9 billion, including a previous $86 billion payment to Comcast [5] - Hulu's user base has grown from 25 million in 2019 to approximately 54.7 million by the second quarter of 2025, indicating significant growth potential [6][24] Group 2: Financial Performance - Disney's streaming business, including Hulu, achieved a profit of $47 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, a significant improvement from a loss of over $500 million in the same period of 2023 [12] - Despite this progress, Disney's streaming services still lag behind Netflix, which reported a net profit of approximately $2.89 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with a projected increase to over $3 billion in the second quarter [13][35] Group 3: Market Positioning - The merger of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to create a "super content library," capturing 24.6% of the U.S. subscription video on demand (SVOD) market, surpassing Netflix's 16.6% [10] - Disney's strategy includes integrating Hulu's content into Disney+, addressing the high costs of international expansion by leveraging existing platforms [6][36] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Disney and Netflix is intensifying, with both companies facing challenges in user growth and profitability [26][35] - Disney's CEO Bob Iger emphasizes the importance of seamless integration between Hulu and Disney+ to enhance user experience and retention [8][36] Group 5: Historical Context - Iger's leadership has been marked by strategic acquisitions, including Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, which have significantly increased Disney's market value from approximately $56 billion in 2005 to $231 billion by 2020 [18] - The launch of Disney+ in 2019 was part of a broader strategy to compete with Netflix, which has transformed the entertainment landscape since its inception [21][27]