行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航运港口 2025 年 05 月 16 日 衰退预期缓解，抢运开始 看好 ——对等关税对航运影响进入二阶段 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 联系人 张慧 (8621)23297818× zhanghui@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 重要信息回顾： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 事件：2025 年 5 月 12 日中美在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，并发布《中美日 内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。双方承诺将于 2025 年 ...

中美最新关税政策调整后，外贸企业出口需求旺盛。南都记者多方采访了解到，连日来，外贸企业纷纷 抢抓90天窗口期重启美国市场供应，恢复的积压订单量及新增订单带动外贸出货持续走高，以至海 运"一舱难求"，订单已排到6月。同时，多家船运公司赶在客户订舱潮前发布涨价公告。 数据服务商Wind统计显示，5月14日，北方国际集装箱运价指数（天津—美西）涨超11%。受政策和市 场行情影响，近日航运港口板块多个相关概念股股价上涨明显，部分因连日股价涨幅偏离值累计超20% 而发布风险预警。 "抢运潮"下，集装箱预订量飙升 2025年4月初，美国政府宣布在此前单边加征关税的基础上，对华加征所谓"对等关税"，一度引发全球 股市动荡。彼时，不少美国企业赶在新关税生效前，将商品送上前往中国的航班，就曾短暂引发"抢运 潮"。业内普遍认为，高关税将推高跨境电商（尤其是依赖美国市场的电商）物流成本，长期看将降低 跨境物流需求，全球航运港口及供应链物流或面临周期性承压。4月，全球航运市场重要景气指标的波 罗的海干散货指数（BDI）率创今年新低，中国对美国出口330.24亿美元，同比下降21%。 据5月12日发布的《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》， ...

（原标题：揭秘涨停丨超百万手买单抢筹这只热门股） 今日A股市场收盘共78股涨停，剔除掉27只ST板块个股后51股涨停，34股封板未遂，整体封板率为 69.64%。 连云港：公司将进一步加强国际枢纽海港建设，充分发挥陆海联运、东西双向开放的区位优势，不断提 升公司市场占有率和经营质效。 南京港：子公司龙集公司目前是长江上规模化、 现代化、专业化的集装箱港口，是省市重点打造的海 港枢纽经济区。 涨停战场：宁波海运超百万手买单封板 从收盘涨停板封单量来看，热门股宁波海运封单量最高，有134.89万手；其次是综艺股份、宁波远洋、 吉林化纤，涨停板封单分别41.29万手、37.63万手、37.58万手。 从连续涨停天数来看， *ST亚振8连板，成飞集成7连板，苏州龙杰、迎丰股份5连板，宁波海运、宁波 远洋、集泰股份等9股3连板，综艺股份、吉林化纤、*ST天择等11股2连板，其他还有交大昂立5日4板 等。 以封单金额计算，11股封单资金超亿元，宁波海运、宁波远洋、成飞集成封单资金居前，分别为5.49亿 元、4.18亿元、3.7亿元。 宁波海运已连续3个交易日一字涨停。宁波海运日前在投资者问答平台上表示，公司主要经营国内沿 ...

Group 1 - China Chemical's subsidiary, China Chemical Siding Ningbo, is involved in a lawsuit regarding false securities statements by Kangde Xin, with a claim for 5.147 billion yuan in damages [2] - ST Huijin has applied to revoke its risk warning status after addressing issues from a previous administrative penalty, pending approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [3] - Ningbo Ocean has stated that there are no undisclosed significant information and that its business operations remain normal despite recent stock price fluctuations [4] Group 2 - ST Dongyi's controlling shareholder, Dongyi Tianzheng Investment, is set to auction 32 million shares, representing 7.63% of the company's total shares, without affecting the company's control [5] - Jingyuan Environmental Protection's subsidiary has signed a 365 million yuan contract for a computing cluster construction project, with expected revenue recognition of approximately 320 million yuan upon project completion in 2025 [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with 50 stocks hitting the daily limit, while 18 stocks faced a limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 73% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.91% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 164.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Chengfei Integration achieved a 7-day limit up streak, while Wanfeng Co. and Suzhou Longjie both recorded a 5-day limit up streak [1][3] - The upgrade rate for consecutive limit-up stocks rose to 64.7% [3] - The stocks that performed well included those in synthetic biology, food, ST stocks, and ports, while software development, cross-border payment, computing power, and Hongmeng concept stocks saw declines [1] Sector Analysis Shipping and Logistics - Following the reduction of tariffs between the US and China, container shipping bookings from China to the US surged by nearly 300% [16] - Stocks in the shipping and logistics sector, such as Ningbo Shipping and Ningbo Ocean, saw consecutive limit-up performances [16] Textile and Apparel - The textile sector benefited from a surge in orders from US clients following the tariff reductions, with stocks like Wanfeng Co. and Suzhou Longjie achieving consecutive limit-up performances [20][21] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector maintained high interest, with companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber announcing price increases for various products [6][24] - Stocks such as Jitai Co. and Youfu Co. recorded consecutive limit-up performances [24] Health and Beauty - The advertisement for Kelong Pharmaceutical's ergothioneine capsules sparked interest in related sectors, leading to a collective surge in stocks like Chuaning Biological and Tuoxin Pharmaceutical [5][30] Robotics - The robotics sector showed mixed performance, with some stocks like Daya Co. and Zhongjian Technology performing well despite overall sector weakness [7][28] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with significant attention on the performance of large financial and dividend stocks to stabilize the indices [8] - The internal divergence within high-performing stocks may lead to a consolidation phase, with potential opportunities for low-priced stocks to emerge [6][8]

Market Overview - The market experienced a weak fluctuation, with all three major indices closing down. The consumer sector showed resilience, while over 3,800 stocks declined [1][3] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4,600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17%. They maintain an overweight rating on Chinese stocks and suggest focusing on multiple themes for excess returns [1] Sector Performance - New hotspots emerged in the market, particularly in the ergot sulfur concept, with Chuaning Biological hitting a 20% limit up. Other sectors such as beauty care and medical aesthetics also saw significant gains [1] - The food and beverage sector rebounded in the afternoon, with several stocks, including Xiwang Food, hitting the limit up. The shipping and port sector continued its upward trend, with Nanjing Port achieving three consecutive limit ups [1] - The textile and apparel sector showed recovery, with Huafang Co. achieving six limit ups in eight days. Other sectors like coal, chemicals, synthetic biology, rare earths, and ST stocks also performed well [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 1,407 stocks rose, while 3,856 stocks fell, with 149 stocks remaining flat. There were 78 stocks hitting the limit up and 12 stocks hitting the limit down [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% to 3,380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.3 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% to 10,186.45 points, with a trading volume of 688.7 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.91% to 2,043.25 points [3] Fund Flow - Main funds focused on sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, small metals, and passenger vehicles, with notable net inflows into stocks like BYD, Chuaning Biological, and Shenghe Resources [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expediting the introduction of a comprehensive policy package to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [5] Industry Insights - The anti-aging industry is divided into medical and non-medical tracks, with the former focusing on basic medical research and the latter encompassing various fields such as sociology and artificial intelligence [2] - The China Academy of Sciences has made breakthroughs in the electro-catalytic reforming of waste plastic PET to produce biodegradable plastic PGA, with projected market demand reaching millions of tons [6] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Minsheng Securities suggest that China's asset resilience may be higher than that of overseas markets, with a focus on consumption sectors and undervalued financial stocks [9] - Huazhong Securities indicates that the market will continue to experience fluctuations until significant improvements in the macroeconomic fundamentals are observed [10]

金十图示：2025年05月15日（周四）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行股走势分化，半导体、券商股走低 保险 中国太保 R 中国人保 中国平安 0 3661.75亿市值 3274.76亿市值 9879.05亿市值 18.64亿成交额 30.95亿成交额 26.49亿成交额 54.25 8.28 34.04 -0.69(-1.99%) -0.44(-0.80%) +0.04(+0.49%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 20501.27亿市值 2555.83亿市值 5188.55亿市值 40.43亿成交额 19.48亿成交额 7.16亿成交额 1632.01 209.50 133.67 -2.98(-0.18%) -1.20(-0.57%) -1.59(-1.18%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2291.08亿市值 2826.18亿市值 3303.12亿市值 12.53亿成交额 23.52亿成交额 12.28亿成交额 428.90 677.00 142.11 -8.04(-1.84%) -6.99(-1.02%) -2.11(-1.46%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on May 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3389.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.12% to 10238.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.35% to 2055.06 points [1] - The shipping and logistics sectors continued to rise, with notable performances from companies like Lianyungang, Nanjing Port, Ningbo Maritime, and Ningbo Ocean, achieving three consecutive days of gains [1] - The consumer sector showed strong performance, particularly in the beauty and personal care segment, which rose by 4.49%, while the food and beverage sector followed closely [1] Group 2 - The shipping market is experiencing a surge due to improved export demand expectations and adjustments in U.S.-China tariff policies, leading to a rush in shipping activities as the traditional transportation peak season approaches [2] - Some leading shipping companies have indicated price increases for June, creating a forward price anchoring effect, while the overall market sentiment has shifted positively due to the easing of trade tensions [2] - The futures market has seen significant increases, with the European shipping contract rising over 40% in four trading days, reflecting the bullish sentiment in the shipping sector [2] Group 3 - Future sustainability of the shipping market recovery depends on three key variables: the strength of inventory replenishment in Europe and the U.S., shipping companies' capacity control measures, and geopolitical risk premiums [3] - If the PMI new orders index remains above 55 in May, the peak season could extend until August, while significant capacity management by major shipping lines could push freight rates up by 15% to 20% [3] - Long-term supply pressure remains, with a 10% year-on-year expansion in the global container fleet, which may challenge the recovery cycle by the end of Q3 [3]

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of China-US tariff policies, combined with the approaching traditional transportation peak season in Europe and the US, has led to a significant surge in the A-share shipping and port sector, with notable stock performances from companies like Guohang Yuanyang and Huaguang Yuanhai [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping sector experienced a wave of stock price increases, with Guohang Yuanyang and Huaguang Yuanhai hitting the daily limit of 30% [1] - The international shipping market demand is showing steady growth against the backdrop of a mild global economic recovery [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Guohang Yuanyang has expanded its foreign trade routes to cover regions including Europe, North America, South America, Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia, and Africa, while maintaining growth in capacity [1] - Huaguang Yuanhai plans to adhere to its strategy of developing the Yangtze River inland branch and actively seeks suitable acquisition targets to expand its international logistics footprint [1] - Beibu Gulf Port emphasizes the importance of expanding its international route network and has launched irregular services to the US, focusing on export demand from hinterland enterprises [1] - Haitong Development indicates that its exposure to US-related routes is low, and the impact of tariff increases on its revenue is minimal, with plans to closely monitor policy changes and adopt proactive strategies [1]