Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the current market sentiment remains high, with an influx of incremental funds and a continued "deposit migration" logic, leading to a sustained profit effect [2][5]. - It is expected that the A-share market will continue its upward trend unless there is policy intervention, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation focusing on mid-to-large cap and leading companies, particularly in the technology growth sector [2][5]. - The article suggests paying attention to the rotation and rebound opportunities in key sectors such as technology, new energy, cyclical industries (including military and rare earths), pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In the equity market, the style shifted from small-cap dominance to large-cap dominance, with growth style significantly outperforming [7]. - The volatility of both small and large-cap styles has decreased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has increased [7][10]. - The concentration of trading has increased, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries seeing a rapid rise in their transaction volume proportions [7][10]. Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals has slightly decreased, while the trend strength of energy and black metals has increased [12]. - The volatility of energy and black metal sectors has decreased from near-year highs, while the volatility of precious metals has slightly increased [12]. - Liquidity in the black and non-ferrous metal sectors has rapidly declined [12]. Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 remains high, indicating pressure on short positions due to strong upward movements [14]. - The skew of put options has dropped into negative territory, with an increase in the open interest of put options compared to call options, suggesting that market participants are beginning to take risk precautions [14]. Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced some volatility, with the premium rate for conversion dropping significantly from its peak to near the median of the past year, primarily due to the market's sharp rise [16]. - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has decreased, indicating that the recent valuation drop is mainly due to adjustments in previously high premium convertible bonds [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].

周五美联储降息预期随之升温，是迫于外界压力，还是内部存在分歧，暂且不论，毕竟美元走势已提前给出反馈。 周二美元震荡走高，亚盘强势上扬，欧盘陷入盘整，美盘再度拉升，日线收出大阳线。黄金昨日早盘急跌至 3351 附 近后迅速反弹，日线整体震荡，后半夜成功拉升至目标位 3393 附近，按常理今日看涨，但近期大阳后常有小阴修 正，需防收阴。目前行情在 3385 徘徊，上方关注 3400，操作上徐老师建议回调3372附近多，损3363，目标3385- 3390。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。本人解读世界经 济体制，全面剖析海内外交易品种，重点把握第一时间重要财经基本面的解说，引领投资者正确导向，投资是一个 完整体系包括投资理念，投资心态，资金管理，风险控制，投资策略，操作手法与思路，黄金白银、原油等，每日 行情解读，敬请关注！以上内容属徐老师原创，个人观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎） 生活就像一场充满未知的冒险，途中或许会有荆棘刺痛双脚，有迷雾遮挡视线，但请别害怕，更别放弃。每一次挫 折都是成长的磨砺，每一滴汗水都在浇灌成功的花朵。你拥有无限的潜力，只要心 ...

中信期货分析认为，美国劳动力市场趋势下行，9月美联储降息周期有望重启。美联储未来1-2季度海外 流动性维持扩张趋势，且市场可能阶段性交易美联储独立性的风险，这都对黄金趋势形成利多支撑。风 险在于全球权益市场整体表现强势，新兴市场尤甚，强劲的风险偏好使得复苏交易抬头，贵金属市场吸 引力下降。但基本面的弱现实并未逆转，在此阶段信心或有摇摆。降息+基本面下行的类滞涨组合更利 好黄金，若逻辑切换为降息+复苏组合，黄金的弹性将会受限，白银将更为受益。 8月26日，特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克，美联储独立性受质疑，避险情绪升温，金价持续走强创近 两周新高，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.75%报3443.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨0.27%，近10个交易日有8个交易日获资金净申购，累计获资金布局1.97亿，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨0.92%。 消息面上，8月26日美国总统特朗普发布致美联储理事库克的信称，解除美联储理事库克的职务，立即 生效。特朗普在信中提及抵押贷款相关指控，称有充分理由解除库克的职务。美联储理事库克表示，特 朗普无权将她从美联储解雇，她也不会辞职。 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 2.17%. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Indian refineries' Russian oil purchases are expected to drop from 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year to 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels per day after October. Before geopolitical risks further escalate, crude oil may enter a sideways trend [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals trended sideways with an upward bias. The market has priced in a September Fed rate cut, but the future economic direction remains uncertain. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials has reignited concerns about the Fed's independence, which may further erode the US dollar's credit. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Copper - Overnight, LME copper closed higher, while SHFE copper traded sideways below 79,500 yuan. The decline in US durable goods orders in July was better than expected, and consumer confidence remained weak. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose. At the beginning of the week, social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and aluminum rods by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. In the short - term, SHFE aluminum will test the resistance around 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of SHFE aluminum. The spot price of Baotai was raised to 20,200 yuan. There is room for the cross - variety spread between the spot and SHFE aluminum to further narrow [5]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. It is in a weak sideways trend, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [6]. Zinc - The increase in global zinc mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [7]. Lead - Due to weak demand, the rebound momentum is weak. However, the decline space is also limited [8]. Silver and Stainless Steel - SHFE silver rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Technically, silver prices still show an intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling opportunities [8]. Tin - Overnight, both domestic and overseas tin prices rose, breaking through the integer - level resistance. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading volume shrank. Adopt a bullish approach with risk control [10]. Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon decreased with reduced positions. In the short term, the price is under pressure due to emotional factors. Observe the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to trade sideways. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Continue to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market traded sideways. Overall, the supply - demand situation of iron ore is weakening marginally, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range [14]. Coke - The intraday price of coke declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [15]. Coking Coal - The intraday price of coking coal declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [16]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon was in a weak sideways trend. Observe the support at the previous low [17]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price of ferrosilicon was in a weak sideways trend. It mainly follows the trend of manganese silicon [18]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market for shipping continues to decline. The spot price is expected to continue to fall [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, oil prices tumbled. The LU - FU spread is expected to continue to narrow [20]. Asphalt - Overnight, oil prices tumbled, but the decline of BU was limited. Low inventory levels support both the futures and spot prices of asphalt [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market rebounded supported by import demand. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [22]. Urea - Urea futures prices were in a weak sideways trend, and spot prices continued to fall. In the short term, it is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to fall overnight. Pay attention to the macro atmosphere and the possibility of the restart of coastal MTO plants [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to trade in a narrow range overnight. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation may continue to be under pressure [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support has slightly improved, but there is no upward impetus. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not significant, but downstream demand has weakened. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is expected to increase slightly [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a sideways trend. The price of caustic soda has fallen from a high level. The current price is not cost - effective for chasing long positions [28]. PX and PTA - Overnight, PX continued its strong trend, while PTA had a weak rebound. Pay attention to the actual dynamics of the plants, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester capacity utilization increase [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is trading sideways around 4,500 yuan per ton. In the short term, it is relatively strong [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, driven by cost. Consider a long - position allocation if demand improvement is realized in the medium term. The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Glass - The spot price of glass is facing a weak reality of decline. Given the current low valuation and positive macro policies, the downward space of futures prices is limited [31]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil futures prices tumbled, while the price of Thai raw materials was stable with a slight increase. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash fluctuates slightly. In the long term, the supply of soda ash remains under high pressure. Consider short - selling at high rebounds [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of the week of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%. In the medium - to - long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal futures [34]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for China - US trade negotiations. Consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips in the medium - to - long term [35]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term sideways consolidation pattern, and the price center may shift downward [36]. Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 showed a weak decline. Domestic soybeans need to continue to pay attention to policies and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [37]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [38]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is weak, and the futures market follows the spot trend. The pig price is expected to remain weak in the medium term [39]. Eggs - Egg futures are in a weak trend. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of this year is increasing. Consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. Cotton - US cotton prices tumbled yesterday. Operate by buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [41]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices traded sideways. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a sideways trend [42]. Apples - Apple futures prices are in a sideways trend. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Wood - Wood futures prices are in a sideways trend. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to fall yesterday. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy or trade within the range [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the broader market traded in a narrow range with reduced volume. Maintain an increased allocation to the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. It is expected that the probability of a steeper yield curve will increase [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to political events, specifically President Trump's unprecedented dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member, which raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - On December 26, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $32.5, closing at $3443.2 per ounce, marking a 0.95% increase, with an intraday high of $3443.3, the highest since August 12 [1] - Market analysts suggest that Trump's direct intervention in the Federal Reserve and the government's direct investments in private enterprises could severely impact the economic system [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that India may lift restrictions on pension funds investing in gold ETFs, which is expected to stimulate demand for gold investments [1] - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery increased by 16 cents, closing at $39.210 per ounce, reflecting a 0.41% rise [1] - The U.S. durable goods orders for July were reported at a month-on-month rate of -2.8%, slightly better than the expected -4% [1]

截至8月26日，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为15274.70吨，较前一交易日减少14.12吨。 | Net Assets of Fund | $18,861,259,140 | Fund Inception | Apr 21, 2006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | | | | | Asset Class | Commodity | | Exchange | NYSE Arca | | | | | | Bloomberg Index Ticker | SLVRLN | | Reference Benchmark | LBMA Silver Price | | | | | | Shares Outstanding | 540,650,000 | | Indicative Basket Amount | 45,400.60 | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | | | | | Tonnes in Trust | 15,27 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices surged after finding support at 3351, breaking last week's high of 3378 and reaching a peak of 3386, before fluctuating between 3380 and 3367 [3] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to significantly impact interest rate expectations [3] - Current support levels are identified at 3365-3364, while resistance is noted at 3383-3386, with trading strategies suggested for both long and short positions [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and facing one's mistakes as fundamental to success in trading [3] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of the global economic system and highlights the need for investors to grasp key financial fundamentals [3] - The content encourages investors to pay attention to daily market interpretations of commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately [5]. - For gold, due to its strategic importance and role in the financial market, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background - Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have led to continuous premiums in the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals in the New York market. Although the expected 50% tariff on refined copper did not materialize, the Comex copper premium dropped significantly. The abnormal changes in the domestic - foreign premium have occurred frequently in the past, and this report summarizes the background and market sentiment of previous abnormal domestic premiums and provides views on future premium fluctuations [12]. Past 20 - year Premium Abnormalities Review Sub - prime Crisis Forced Adjustment of China's Gold Import Quota Policy - In 2008, the international gold price first reached a peak of $1000 per ounce in March and then dropped to $680 in October due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. With the implementation of the Fed's quantitative easing policy, the gold price rebounded to over $1200 in 2009. In China, due to inflation and limited investment channels, the demand for physical gold soared. The central bank increased its gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons, strengthening market bullish expectations. However, due to strict import quota management, only a few state - owned commercial banks could import gold, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and a significant difference between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London market. In the first half of 2009, the domestic market changed from a discount to a premium, and the premium returned to a reasonable range in the second half of the year after the import quota was gradually relaxed [13][14]. International Gold Price Fluctuations from 2011 to 2013 Led to a Rise in Domestic Premium - From 2011 to 2013, the international gold price reached a high in 2011 and then dropped sharply in 2013, and the domestic gold price premium increased abnormally. In August 2011, due to the European and American debt crises and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the international gold price soared, while the domestic supply could not meet the sudden increase in demand due to quota management, capital account restrictions, and exchange - rate expectations, resulting in a premium of about 20 - 30 yuan per gram. In early 2012, during the Chinese New Year gold consumption season, the domestic supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and the premium also reached over 20 yuan per gram. In 2013, the international gold price dropped sharply due to the Cyprus debt crisis and the Fed's plan to reduce bond purchases. Chinese consumers launched a gold - buying spree, and the central bank tightened the import channels, resulting in a premium of over 30 yuan per gram at the peak [24][25][26]. The "Financing Copper" Effect Pushed up the Domestic Copper Premium around the 8.11 Exchange - rate Reform - Around the 8.11 exchange - rate reform in 2015, the domestic copper premium increased significantly. The premium logic of the copper market is more complex, involving the dual game of "financing demand" and "depreciation arbitrage". The expectation of RMB depreciation led enterprises to conduct cross - border arbitrage through copper trade, causing the bonded - area copper inventory to exceed 600,000 tons and the domestic copper price to have a premium of up to 1,700 yuan per ton compared with the LME price. In early 2016, the supply - side reform led to expectations of copper smelter production cuts, further expanding the premium. The regulatory authorities took measures in the third quarter of 2016 to reduce the price difference, and the domestic premium peak in 2016 was about 2,000 yuan per ton [36]. The COVID - 19 Pandemic Caused Significant Premiums in Domestic Copper and Silver - In 2020, due to the different economic recovery paces between China and the rest of the world during the COVID - 19 pandemic, there were significant price premiums in the domestic silver and copper markets. The domestic silver price premium exceeded 200 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, and the copper price premium reached 1,500 yuan per ton in May. The silver premium was driven by the booming photovoltaic industry, blocked import channels, and increased investment demand. The copper premium was due to China's infrastructure stimulus plan, a sharp decrease in scrap copper imports, and exchange - rate - related hedging behavior. The regulatory authorities took measures such as increasing import quotas and releasing state - reserve copper, and by the fourth quarter of 2020, the premiums returned to normal levels [41][42][43]. The Adjustment of the Gold Import Quota Led to a Rise in the Domestic Premium from 2023 to 2024 - From 2023 to 2024, the domestic - foreign gold price difference was inverted due to the central bank's quota control on gold imports. Geopolitical risks and the downturn in the domestic real estate market increased investors' demand for gold. Some enterprises and investors found ways to bypass the quota policy through financial innovation, which weakened the policy's effectiveness and increased the complexity and volatility of the domestic gold pricing system. As the bank's gold import quota was gradually relaxed, the premium gradually returned [47]. Summary - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. After Trump took office, his tariff policies overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately. For gold, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [51].