大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属小幅反弹。伦敦金震荡走高，当前交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银则交投于 36.5 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.49%，报 773.3 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 8919 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数低开后窄幅波动，当前交投于 97.45 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率窄幅波动，当前交投于 4.35%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.177 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①7 月 9 日，特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函：自 8 月 1 日 起，美国将对菲律 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月10日（周四）晚盘盘初下跌0.07%报768.0元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月10日（周四）晚盘盘初上涨0.43%报8890.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest that most officials do not see an immediate need for interest rate cuts, but there is a general expectation for potential rate reductions later in the year if inflation pressures from tariffs increase [1][2] - The latest gold T+D price is reported at 769.21 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.67% increase, indicating a rebound in the gold market during the European trading session [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Christopher Waller, who has previously expressed support for rate cuts, which could influence market expectations for the July policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, maintaining a downward trend but supported by a weekly upward trend channel, suggesting potential for further bullish rebounds if prices drop to support levels [3] - Key resistance levels for gold T+D are identified between 775-785 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 750-760 yuan per gram, indicating a range for potential price movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has closed the window for interest rate cuts in July, leading to significant movements in the gold market, with gold prices rebounding nearly $50 from the bottom, raising questions about whether a short-term peak has been reached [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision impacts market expectations and investor sentiment regarding interest rates [1] - Gold prices have shown a strong rebound, indicating potential volatility in the short term [1] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring gold's price movements for signs of a peak [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Hong Kong 300 Resource Index, which has shown a 2.39% increase over the past month, a 22.23% increase over the past three months, and a 9.29% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of securities from various industry themes such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, reflecting the overall performance of different thematic listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1] - The index's top ten holdings include China National Offshore Oil (29.27%), PetroChina (13.19%), Zijin Mining (10.84%), China Shenhua Energy (9.38%), Sinopec (9.08%), China Hongqiao Group (4.51%), China Coal Energy (3.47%), Zhaojin Mining (3.08%), Luoyang Molybdenum (2.86%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.39%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that oil and gas account for 51.92%, precious metals for 15.97%, coal for 15.72%, industrial metals for 14.86%, rare metals for 0.91%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.62% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers, acquisitions, or splits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with central banks increasing gold purchases and international gold prices experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [1][3]. Industry Pain Points: Dual Challenges of Volatility and Compliance Risks - The gold investment sector faces two main risks: uncontrolled short-term volatility and compliance issues with trading platforms. For instance, during the May 2025 Federal Reserve meeting, gold prices dropped by 3% in a single day, leading to account liquidations for some investors [3]. - The number of non-compliant platforms in Hong Kong surged by 45% in 2024, with issues such as false credentials and fund misappropriation becoming prevalent. Additionally, the average spread in the industry reached $0.5 per ounce, while 35% of platforms still used mixed account models, compromising fund safety [3]. Jinsheng Precious Metals' Three-Dimensional Risk Control System - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive risk management system that includes compliance, dynamic risk control models, and scenario-based solutions [4]. - The compliance framework features bank-level fund segregation and transaction transparency, with client funds stored in dedicated accounts at HSBC and subjected to third-party audits. This system has earned the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" certification for six consecutive years [4]. - The dynamic risk control model limits individual trade risks to 2% of total account funds, and during Q1 2025, the platform adjusted leverage from 1:200 to 1:100 in response to market volatility, reducing user risk exposure by 35% [5]. - Scenario-based solutions, such as the "key point warning radar," provide real-time risk alerts, helping users manage their positions effectively. In Q2 2025, the average drawdown for Jinsheng users was only 7.2%, significantly better than the market average of 15.6% [6]. Cost Optimization and Service Innovation - Jinsheng has introduced a "zero commission + instant rebate" policy, reducing the London gold spread to $0.3 per ounce, which is over 30% lower than the industry average. This can save high-frequency traders thousands in fees monthly [8]. - The platform offers a "21-day simulation training camp" and mini contracts starting from 0.01 lots, enabling new investors to quickly learn risk management strategies through AI-assisted trading [8]. Industry Benchmark Value: Compliance and Technology as Dual Drivers - Jinsheng has established a $1 billion risk reserve fund to act as a market maker during liquidity crises, ensuring priority execution of client liquidation orders [9]. - The research team publishes a daily "Precious Metals Morning Report," providing strategic insights based on Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events, helping users avoid potential losses exceeding 15% during critical periods [9]. - The combination of technology and service has led to a user recommendation rate of 98%, making Jinsheng a preferred choice for 30 million global investors. The company positions itself as a "wealth ark" for investors, emphasizing low costs, high transparency, and strong protection [9].

周一(7月7日)，白银交易价格大幅下跌，从早盘一度触及的37.20美元(略低于6月18日创下的13年高点37.29美元)回落。随着整体贵金属市场面临美 元走强和美联储政策担忧的阻力，白银正测试关键支撑位。 白银目前正测试36.30美元的短期枢轴位，分析师警告，若该水平失守，可能引发价格暴跌至35.40-34.87美元的主要支撑区间。从近13年高点回落 的走势表明，与黄金的下跌类似，市场正面临获利了结压力，因投资者在特朗普关税截止前和美联储政策明朗化前重新评估贵金属持仓。 1. 合规保障与透明交易 白银的工业属性在这一轮行情中尤为突出。国际能源署《2025 年全球光伏市场纵览》报告显示，2024 年全球光伏新增装机量突破 600 吉瓦，而白 银在光伏电池中占比超过 10%，是制造银浆的关键原材料。新能源汽车产业同样贡献显著，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银用量较传统汽车分别 提升了 21% 和 71%，随着市场渗透率提高，需求将持续扩张。东兴证券研报指出，2025-2027 年间全球白银供需缺口或由 6003 吨逐渐放大至 7248 吨，工业用银消耗量将作为核心动力持续增长。 美联储政策与地缘风险交织，波动中暗藏机 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月10日（周四）收盘上涨0.67%报769.21元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月10日（周四）收盘上涨0.36%报8900.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...