Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the volatility in multi-metal prices, particularly emphasizing the rising prices of rare earth elements. It notes that while short-term fluctuations in copper prices are expected due to macroeconomic factors, certain metals like rare earths and tantalum may continue to rise independently of supply-demand dynamics [1]. - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals market, including the temporary suspension of tariffs on key minerals by the U.S. and its impact on copper prices. It notes that the expectation of increased tariffs on refined copper has significantly decreased, although risks remain [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply chain, particularly in Chile, where production is affected by strikes, and the stable production guidance from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4,590 and $89.2 per ounce, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 13.1% [2]. - The report indicates that the U.S. core CPI is at a four-year low, which has led to a revival in market expectations for interest rate cuts, positively influencing gold prices [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown fluctuations, with LME copper closing at $12,822.5 per ton, down 2.63% from the previous week. The report notes an increase in copper social inventory and highlights the recovery in downstream production post-holiday [3]. - The report also discusses aluminum prices, which have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $3,128.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.65% decrease [4]. Energy Metals - Nickel prices have experienced significant volatility, driven by expectations of tightened production quotas in Indonesia. The report notes that domestic social inventory has increased, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with the report highlighting a tight supply situation in the Chinese market, expected to persist into the first quarter [9]. Strategic Metals - The report indicates a continued rise in rare earth prices, with specific increases noted for praseodymium and terbium oxides. It anticipates stable growth in both domestic and international demand for rare earths, suggesting a potential new inventory replenishment cycle [12]. - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in rare earth production and related sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [12].

这不是普通的贸易措辞，这是政策的试探，是市场情绪的燃点，也是投机资金的弹药库，因为白银既是贵金属，也是工业金属，太阳能电池的需求、投机性 买盘以及对黄金高价的替代买入，共同把它推上了过山车轨道。 有人欢呼，有人深呼吸，市场的逻辑被政治插手后变得不那么纯粹，投资者在行情里找不到唯一答案，究竟是基本面主导，还是资金潮水在说了算，这个问 题值得反复问。 商务部完成的232调查给了这场闹剧一个法律与程序的外衣，结论指向——加工关键矿物及其衍生品的大量进口，可能威胁国家安全，这句话是沉甸甸的， 是既定事实，也是政策工具的借口。 然而特朗普此刻选择"谈判优先"，短期内缓和了市场对于全面征税的恐慌，这一决定被道明证券称为"更精准的方法"，但精准的背后，是不确定，带来的正 是价格与情绪的剧烈波动，谁能从中获利不言而喻。 试问，所谓国家安全，是对外部供应链脆弱性的真实担忧，还是瞬时政治利益与选举考量的包装，难以界定，但对市场而言，政策的摇摆足以催生非理性行 为。 再看地缘政治与宏观背景，美联储被特朗普指责、委内瑞拉局势、格陵兰岛的"玩笑式觊觎"、以及中东的不稳定，这些因素像风一样吹过市场，吹起避险买 盘，贵金属因此受益，但风向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market concern revolves around the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, which could lead to significant energy supply disruptions [1][30]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in Iran has escalated with ongoing anti-government protests, leading to increased tensions with the U.S., which has threatened military action [2][17]. - The U.S. is deploying additional military resources to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier and missile defense systems, in response to the rising tensions with Iran [17][18]. - Analysts suggest that Iran's internal and external crises could have profound impacts on the global oil market, with geopolitical instability driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2][18]. Group 2: Economic Conditions in Iran - Iran is experiencing its largest social unrest in three years, driven by a plummeting currency and rising living costs, with inflation projected to reach 43.3% in 2025 [3][20]. - The Iranian government has announced a subsidy of 10 million rials (approximately 48 RMB) per month for eligible citizens to alleviate economic burdens, although many citizens view this as insufficient [20][21]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Iran's GDP growth to slow to 0.6% in 2025, a significant drop from 3.7% in 2024, indicating severe economic challenges [20]. Group 3: Oil Market Reactions - Brent crude oil prices have shown volatility, rising by 10% in a week before dropping by 3%, currently hovering around $65 per barrel, as investors react to potential supply disruptions from Iran [29]. - Iran's oil production exceeds 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 2 million barrels per day, making it a significant player in the global oil market compared to Venezuela, which has seen a decline in production [29][30]. - Concerns about the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices above $150 per barrel, leading to a global energy crisis [30]. Group 4: Safe-Haven Assets - The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices recently surpassing $4,600 per ounce and silver exceeding $90 per ounce [31][32]. - Analysts have raised their price targets for gold and silver, with expectations of $5,000 per ounce for gold and $100 per ounce for silver in the coming months, although a correction may follow after reaching these highs [32].

王爷说财经讯：暴跌预警？金银比创13年最低！ 注意了！金融市场又炸雷了！ 就在今天，2026年1月17日，一个让所有投资者惊掉下巴的数据诞生了：伦敦市场的金银比一度暴跌至50.57！这是什 么概念？这是整整13年来的最低 点！ 你敢信吗？仅仅一年时间，白银价格就像坐上了火箭，从低位飙升了190%，不仅突破了90美元/盎司的大关，更是把黄金远远甩在身后。要知道，黄金 虽然也涨了75%，但在白银这"暴力美学"般的涨幅面前，简直就像个慢吞吞的老大爷。 这到底是牛市的最后狂欢，还是新一轮暴涨的起点？金银比跌穿50大关，难道真的预示着这场史诗级牛市要见顶了？ 01、白银"喝高了"，黄金"在梦游"？ 咱们先把话说明白，啥叫金银比？ 简单来说，就是买一盎司黄金能换多少盎司白银。以前这比例高得吓人，100多盎司白银才能换一盎司黄金，那时候白银就像地里的烂白菜，黄金是高贵 的" 王"。 但现在，比例干到了50:1，意味着白银身价暴涨，或者说黄金相对便宜了。 为什么金银比会跌这么狠？ 核心原因就一个： 白银不再只是"钱"，它变成了"工业的维生素"！ 看看现在的高科技产业，从人工智能数据中心的服务器，到光伏太阳能板，再到满大街跑的 ...

格隆汇1月17日｜Marex分析师Edward Meir表示："在连续数周大涨后，大宗商品整体回落，出现一些获 利了结。中东紧张局势缓解也使黄金以及其他金属，尤其是白银，失去部分地缘政治溢价。"随着伊朗 抗议活动平息、美国总统特朗普采取观望态度、俄罗斯总统普京介入斡旋，地缘政治紧张局势似乎有所 缓和。Meir说："我仍认为金价在今年某个时间点有机会触及5000美元，但期间会伴随较大幅回调。" ...

在这个市场中，我们见证了人们的心态和本性，简洁而真诚的文字可能并不华丽，但却表达了深刻的意 义。要记住，成为盈利的投资者是一个旅程，而非一个目的地。努力在每天的交易中取得更好的表现， 从自身的进步中获得乐趣。专注于学习技术分析的技巧，提升自己的交易能力，而不仅仅关注盈亏的结 果。对于亏损的投资者来说，要保持良好的心态，勇敢面对市场，因为选择比努力更加重要！今天的选 择或许就是明天的转机！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（1月17日）美盘时段，现货黄金价格走低，部分交易员在金价实现年初7.4%的涨幅后选择减持头 寸。尽管2025年全年，避险需求与美联储降息预期一直为市场提供支撑，但今年金价的飙升，源于伊朗 突发的地缘政治事件——这一事件甚至引发特朗普总统威胁将采取战事行动。由于美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普对提名凯文·哈塞特担任美联储主席表现出犹豫，加剧了其继任者人选的不确定性，现货黄金周五 （1月16日）录得两周多以来的最大跌幅。在特朗普发表上述言论后，美元收复日内跌幅，现货黄金一 度急跌84美元至4536.45美元/盎司低点。不过随后强势反弹至4595.59美元收盘；金价此前涨势 ...

美国最新公布的数据显示出美国劳动力市场仍具韧性，市场预期美联储今年上半年可能不会降息，叠加美国方面对伊朗 的军事干预态度软化，部分投资者赶在贵金属价格攀升至历史新高后获利了结，令黄金和白银价格周五承压回落。 从周线上看，投资者对美联储独立性的担忧以及地缘政治风险，引发资金从风险资产撤离，买入贵金属寻求避险，黄金 创下收盘新高，白银价格连续四个交易日刷新历史纪录。纽约黄金期货主力合约价格全周累计上涨超2%，白银期货主 力合约价格累计上涨超11%。 16日美国三大股指集体收跌 全周累计下跌 16日欧洲三大股指全线下跌 当地时间周五，美国总统特朗普称，可能会对那些不支持美国得到格陵兰岛的国家加征关税。他同时表示，希望白宫国 家经济委员会主任哈西特继续留任现职，而非转任美联储主席。以上言论引发市场对于地缘风险以及美联储降息前景的 担忧。美国三大股指集体收跌。全周来看，一系列经济数据和报告都不支持美联储短期内再次降息，打击市场风险偏 好，美国三大股指累计下跌。其中，道指累计下跌0.29%，标普500指数累计下跌0.38%，纳指累计下跌0.66%。 由于针对丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛的相关外交谈判未取得突破性进展，地缘政治的不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged significantly, driven by various underlying factors including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the spot gold market experienced a breakthrough, reaching a peak of $4601.38 per ounce, surpassing the previous record set on December 29, 2025 [1]. - Spot silver also saw a nearly 6% increase, breaking the $84 per ounce mark, contributing to a wave of price surges in the precious metals market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Concerns regarding political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, leading to a weakening of the US dollar and US stock index futures, which in turn has made precious metals more attractive to investors [1][3]. - High geopolitical risks, particularly the US military intervention in Venezuela, have heightened global political uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like precious metals [3]. - The rising fiscal risks in the US, exacerbated by previous policies, have led to increased skepticism about the stability of the US economy, further driving investment towards gold and silver [3]. Group 3: Market Signals - Technical market signals indicate a tendency for investors to buy on dips and breakouts, suggesting that price corrections may present good entry points for investors [3]. - If political risks escalate further, precious metals are likely to serve as a "safety valve" for investors, providing a secure haven amidst market volatility [3].

Oil Market - Oil prices ended a volatile week with a slight increase, as traders assessed tensions in Iran and broader market sentiment [2][12] - WTI futures for February delivery rose by 0.4% to settle at $59.44 per barrel, recovering from a 4.6% drop earlier in the week, the largest decline since June [2][12] - Brent futures for March delivery increased by 0.6%, settling at $64.13 per barrel [2][13] - President Trump's comments regarding Iran's decision to cancel the execution of protesters reduced market expectations for immediate U.S. intervention [13][14] - The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, with at least one aircraft carrier deployed and more military assets expected in the coming days [13][14] - Traders typically hedge bearish bets before weekends during periods of heightened geopolitical risk [14] Precious Metals - Gold prices declined as President Trump expressed reservations about Kevin Hassett's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, adding uncertainty to the selection process [4][16] - Following Trump's remarks, the dollar narrowed its losses, and U.S. Treasury yields rose, leading to a 1.7% drop in gold prices [5][17] - Gold spot prices fell by 0.66% to $4,585.61 per ounce, while silver spot prices decreased by 3.25% to $89.4164 per ounce [17] Base Metals - Base metal prices on the London market experienced significant declines at the end of a dramatic week [18][19] - Benchmark futures for copper, tin, zinc, and aluminum all fell, with LME copper down 2.3% to $12,803 per ton and LME tin down 7.8% to $47,982 per ton [20] - The sell-off in the Shanghai market contributed to the speed and characteristics of the market movements, with traders likely closing long positions rather than driven by new demand or macro signals [19][20]