韩国央行行长李昌镛就近期韩元汇率波动及货币政策表态。他表示，为应对韩元贬值压力，韩国央行已 与福利部和国民年金公团（NPS）合作，近期通过外汇对冲操作帮助稳定外汇市场。若外汇市场持续不 稳定，央行将不会同意每年向美国流出200亿美元的投资资金。政府将于今日晚些时候就美国贸易协议 和外汇市场发表声明。韩元近期贬值主要受地缘政治风险和居民海外投资增加的影响。散户投资者海外 股票购买行为再次上升，加剧了资本外流压力。尽管如此，李昌镛强调，韩元疲软尚未反映韩国经济基 本面，且当前拥有充足的美元储备。李昌镛指出，韩元走弱可能引发通胀压力，进而推动利率上调。如 果希望通过政策利率稳定外汇市场，利率可能需要上调约200至300个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The event held on January 14 marked the first public data product supply and demand matching meeting for 2026, achieving an intention to transact over 3 million yuan in a single day [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was guided by the Nanjing Data Bureau and co-hosted by the Nanjing Public Resource Trading Center and Jiangsu Data Exchange [1] - It focused on financial scenarios, showcasing 8 high-value public data products and facilitating deep exchanges on their financial applications and value release paths [1][2] - Approximately 50 representatives from financial institutions, data development companies, and ecosystem partners attended the event [1] Group 2: Product Highlights - Three data development entities presented high-value public data products aimed at financial scenarios, including a financial risk control product based on high-value spatial data, a credit evaluation index for enterprises, and a trusted verification service based on tax and invoice data [2] - These products address core pain points in financial operations, demonstrating the practical value and application potential of public data in enhancing risk control, optimizing credit processes, and strengthening credit assessments [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The event facilitated efficient interaction between supply and demand sides, with Nanjing Big Data Group announcing plans to attract more market participants for public data value co-creation [2] - A total of 16 data demand items were released by representatives from strategic and certified data companies, fostering a virtuous cycle of "demand-driven supply and supply-creating demand" [2] - Initial statistics indicated that multiple products successfully matched with interested partners, resulting in preliminary cooperation intentions and a total intention to transact exceeding 3 million yuan [2][3]

值得警惕的是，当前，部分贷款中介机构利用金融机构以征信为核心的信贷审批规则，将征信受损的贷 款求助者异化为诈骗工具人。 "有机构通过虚构贷款需征信加分等事实，煽动征信受损人员寻找增信主体，并以无责担保、协助走账 等名义诱骗征信良好的第三方入局，进而冒用他人信用身份申请贷款，非法绕过金融机构风控体系、转 嫁信贷风险并占有贷款资金。"张允源说。 在2024年12月北京市朝阳区人民法院审结的范某某诈骗案中，被告人范某某伙同他人以帮助被害人办理 消除问题征信为由，骗取被害人3.5万元，后被告人范某某将钱款用于个人消费等。法院认定其构成诈 骗罪，对其判处有期徒刑10个月，缓刑1年，罚金2000元。 法官在调研中发现，在传播内容伪装上，不法分子在短视频平台、社交群组、电商平台等网络空间，刻 意规避"征信修复""征信洗白"等敏感词汇，以"征信咨询""债务减免"等名义，并频繁使用"z信优化""崔 收协商""上岸规划"等谐音或暗语，或通过图文结合、表情包内嵌等形式发布虚假征信修复广告，以规 避平台审核机制。 "在传播流程设计上，不法分子采用'多平台跳转'引流策略，在网络平台发布模糊化信息后，引导涉征 信风险人员添加其私人微信、 ...

Sea Limited's 30-day performance gain of 1.06% reflects investor confidence despite a recent slight dip.The company has a projected stock price increase of 45.08%, with analysts setting a target price of $182.20, indicating significant growth potential.SE's strong Piotroski Score of 8 out of 9 underscores its solid financial health and operational efficiency.Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) is a prominent player in the digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial services sectors, primarily operating in S ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [15]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - **Alumina**: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - **Platinum**: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - **Palladium**: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - **Stainless steel**: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - **Polysilicon**: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - **Iron ore**: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Coke**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Coking coal**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Steam coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - **Para - xylene**: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - **PTA**: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The center is moving up [15][87]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - **PP**: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - **Caustic soda**: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15][100]. - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - **Urea**: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - **PVC**: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - **Fuel oil**: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - **Staple fiber**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - **Bottle chips**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - **Offset printing paper**: Hold short positions [15][160]. - **Pure benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - **Palm oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - **Soybean oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - **Soybean meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - **Sugar**: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - **Egg**: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - **Live pig**: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating [15][196].

数据显示，1月份有6000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期。中国人民银行1月15日开展9000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，意味着当月加量续作，加量规模3000亿元，为6个月期买断式逆回购连续第5个月加量续 作，加量规模较上月增加1000亿元。 此前，中国人民银行已于1月8日开展11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，结合当月11000亿元到 期量，1月份3个月期买断式逆回购为等量续作。"这样来看，1月份两个期限品种的买断式逆回购合计加 量续作3000亿元，加量规模较上月增加1000亿元，为中国人民银行连续第8个月通过买断式逆回购向市 场注入中期流动性。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 上海金融与发展实验室副主任、招联首席研究员董希淼分析认为，1月份是银行信贷投放较为集中 的月份，也是企业缴税大月，叠加春节之前取现等因素影响，市场对流动性需求增加。1月份买断式逆 回购实现净投放，继续向市场注入中期流动性，有助于更好地维护市场流动性充裕，保障岁末年初金融 市场平稳运行。此操作直接向银行体系注入流动性，实现补充基础货币、支持信贷投放等目的。 在王青看来，中国人民银行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，能够引导资金面 ...

重启"金融抑制" "金融抑制"（financial repression）最早由新自由主义学派经济学家麦金农和肖在1970年代提出，指的是"政府通过各类政策将原本在自由市场环境下会流 向其他地方的资金引导至自身"[5]。这一过程往往伴随着人为压低利率曲线，以为某种公共政策目标进行廉价融资[6]。虽然新自由主义学派提出这一概念 是为了批判当时发展中国家控制汇率、利率的政策，并推崇"金融自由化"[7]，但事实上，在债务杠杆高企而政府又不得不为功能性财政买单时，"金融抑 制"不失为一种有效的手段。例如，1940年代，美国曾通过"金融抑制"的手段为政府筹款和快速调动生产潜能（参见《美国1930-1960：脱虚向实，走向复 苏》）。自1942年4月至1947年7月，美联储通过无限量购买国库券和承诺购买长债的方式配合财政，将3月期国库券利率控制在0.375%，10年期利率控制 在2.5%[8]（图表1，图表2）。 我们认为，当前特朗普政府的政策目标是明确的：即中长期看解决债务压力和产业空心化问题，而短期则是为了赢得2026年中期选举（参考《2026全球市 场展望：泡沫加速》）。前者要求财政主导、货币配合，后者则要求通胀可 ...

Group 1 - Coca-Cola has abandoned the plan to sell Costa Coffee due to the private equity buyer's offer not meeting expectations, marking another setback for the company during its ownership of the struggling UK coffee chain [5] - In 2025, China's automotive industry is projected to produce and sell 34.53 million and 34.40 million vehicles respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, maintaining its position as the world's largest automotive market for 17 consecutive years [6] - Ctrip has received a notification from the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding an investigation into alleged monopolistic behavior, and the company will cooperate fully with the regulatory authorities [1] Group 2 - JD Logistics plans to offer a cash option to Debon shareholders worth approximately RMB 3.797 billion as part of a proposal to withdraw Debon's shares from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4] - Audi's global vehicle deliveries in 2025 are expected to be around 1.623 million units, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the previous year [8] - Baoneng Group's chairman has filed a complaint against local authorities regarding alleged illegal actions in a case involving Qoros Auto, claiming that the assets involved are significantly undervalued [9] Group 3 - Tesla has implemented new rules for its supercharging stations, including a more user-friendly fee structure for overstaying and an extended grace period for drivers [10] - Amazon plans to appeal a reduced antitrust fine in Italy, arguing that the accusations of market dominance are unfounded [10] - The U.S. government announced a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and related products, effective from January 15 [18]

Market News - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, Nasdaq down 1%, and S&P 500 down 0.53%. Tech stocks generally fell, with Oracle and Broadcom down over 4%, and Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta down over 2%. Intel rose over 3% [1] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil down 1.61% at $59.95 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.53% at $64.47 per barrel. Precious metals prices increased, with spot gold up 0.87% at $4626.55 per ounce and silver up 6.56% at $92.63 per ounce [1] - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.53%, France's CAC40 down 0.19%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.46% [1] Industry Insights - China successfully launched two satellites on January 13, marking the beginning of a high-density launch schedule for the year. The satellite industry is projected to target a market space worth trillions, with over 60 institutions applying for satellite data to the ITU [2] - The satellite internet sector is expected to grow significantly, with the satellite communication industry projected to exceed 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 10%-28% [3] - Shanghai's Economic and Information Technology Commission released a plan to promote high-level autonomous driving, aiming for large-scale application by 2027 and establishing a competitive smart connected vehicle industry cluster [4] - The "vehicle-road-cloud integration" is expected to generate an additional output value of 725.9 billion yuan by 2025 and 2.5825 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.8% [4] - The policy aims to enhance data collaboration and trust among automotive, information communication, and transportation sectors, addressing issues of data silos and unstandardized data formats [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of "financial repression" in the U.S. under the Trump administration, focusing on measures to lower financing costs and stimulate the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Repression - "Financial repression" refers to government policies that direct funds to itself by artificially lowering interest rates for public policy goals [4]. - Historical examples include the U.S. in the 1940s, where the Federal Reserve controlled Treasury bill rates to finance government spending [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The Trump administration is expected to implement policies to address debt pressure and industrial hollowing, including capping credit card interest rates at 10% and increasing the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2][3]. - Proposed measures include limiting interest rates on consumer loans and small business loans, increasing supply control over key energy resources, and accelerating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The anticipated environment of fiscal and monetary easing is expected to shift the dollar liquidity cycle from tight to loose, benefiting corporate valuations and accelerating asset bubbles [7][8]. - The article suggests that sectors such as resources, technology, and heavy industry may continue to lead in performance, while consumer and real estate sectors may catch up as the nominal economic cycle improves [7][8].