【影视板块盘初活跃 慈文传媒触及涨停】智通财经12月9日电，影视板块盘初活跃，慈文传媒、博纳影 业触及涨停，中国电影、幸福蓝海、欢瑞世纪、金逸影视跟涨。消息面上，灯塔专业版数据显示，截至 12月8日，《疯狂动物城2》在中国内地的票房已突破30亿元，最终有望冲击40亿元大关。 转自：智通财经 ...

36氪获悉，华泰证券发布传媒行业2026年度展望：聚焦游戏产品向上周期，寻找AI应用突破性机会。 展望2026年，看好传媒行业三大配置方向：1.游戏板块自下而上选择有业绩α的公司，行业规模稳健增 长，2026年部分现运营产品流水或仍攀升，多款重点新品有望上线；2.AI应用有望涌现及加速商业化， 大模型能力跃迁、推理成本下降带动AI应用渗透率提升，Agent或迎来奇点，重点看好AI+广告、AI+电 商等；3.影视行业在政策利好的驱动下，持续优化内容供给。AI技术已深度赋能制作环节，AI漫剧商业 化落地迅速。 ...

人民财讯12月9日电，华泰证券发布传媒行业2026年度展望：聚焦游戏产品向上周期，寻找AI应用突破 性机会。展望2026年，看好传媒行业三大配置方向：1)游戏板块自下而上选择有业绩α的公司，行业规 模稳健增长，2026年部分现运营产品流水或仍攀升，多款重点新品有望上线；2)AI应用有望涌现及加速 商业化，大模型能力跃迁、推理成本下降带动AI应用渗透率提升，Agent或迎来奇点，重点看好AI+广 告、AI+电商等；3)影视行业在政策利好的驱动下，持续优化内容供给。AI技术已深度赋能制作环节， AI漫剧商业化落地迅速。 ...

美国《纽约时报》 12 月 6 日文章，原题：网飞收购华纳兄弟将终结好莱坞 一个世纪以来，人们一直在预 言好莱坞的消亡。从电视、家庭录像带、互联网到人工智能（AI），总有人认为新一代影视科技会取 代好莱坞的地位。但好莱坞总是能重塑自我，继续发展，挺过一次又一次的"存亡危机"。然而，流媒体 巨头网飞12月5日宣布，将以每股27.75美元的交易收购华纳兄弟探索公司的核心业务。一旦收购完成， 这个由来已久的好莱坞"末日预言"或许终将到来。 好莱坞多次 " 死里逃生 " 1895年，法国的卢米埃尔兄弟在巴黎第一次向公众放映影片《工厂大门》《火车到站》，标志着电影这 一艺术正式诞生。20世纪初，位于美国西海岸加利福尼亚州洛杉矶郊外的好莱坞，因其依山傍水的旖旎 景色被摄影师发掘，逐渐成为美国电影"圣地"。后来迪士尼、华纳兄弟、环球影业等电影巨头及顶级唱 片公司纷纷汇聚于此，让好莱坞成为全球时尚发源地与电影、音乐产业中心。 然而，在过去100多年的光景中，随着科技与媒体的不断迭代，好莱坞也曾遭遇数次挑战。上个世纪， 电视、家庭录像带走进千家万户，让人们足不出户便能欣赏形形色色的影视作品，但媒介形式的变化并 未动摇好莱坞的地 ...

自立自强，科技长牛-科技组 26 年策略报告 20251208 模型平权与成本下降推动 AI 应用爆发，国内大模型 API 调用成本仅为海 外模型的 1/5，加速生产力平权。关注企业级 AI Agent（如金蝶）、垂 直 know-how 专家（如静态科技、群核科技）以及 AI 原生内容与交互 （如万兴科技、美图）等赛道。 国产算力渗透率快速提升，预计 2026 年将达 40%以上，受益于地缘政 治及政策驱动。国产芯片性能提升，中国 AI 应用生态正建立在自主可控 的算力基础上，利好相关产业链公司。 产业焦点从训练转向推理，资本市场关注创造价值的应用推理场。应关 注以 AI 原生理念构建产品核心架构的公司，而非仅添加 AI 插件的企业。 光模块板块持续看好，1.6T 产品预计 2026 年将迎来十倍甚至十五倍放 量。推荐中际旭创，其在 1.6T 产品上具有代际领先优势，下游客户需求 强劲。 卫星互联网发展前景乐观，火箭发射运力提升将带动卫星产业链业绩兑 现。推荐普天科技，其在太空算力运营商逻辑上具有优势，有望在主题 行情中表现优异。 摘要 2025 年整体市场的主线非常清晰，主要是在交易北美算力的高景气度背景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Core Insights - The "Haina International Young Director Development Plan" and "Chunmiao Screenwriter Plan" are launched by Tiger Whale Entertainment Group to support young Chinese filmmakers returning from abroad [1][4] - The initiative aims to create a systematic support framework for overseas Chinese creators, encouraging them to develop their careers in China [1][4] Group 1: Talent Development - The "Haina Plan" has attracted 70 overseas Chinese young directors since its inception, establishing a comprehensive growth path from learning to practical creation [1][4] - The program emphasizes the importance of integrating overseas directors into the local cultural context, suggesting that their first works should leverage established narratives to resonate with domestic audiences [3][4] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The collaboration between Tiger Whale Entertainment and Hainan Smart Lingfa Industrial Development Co., Ltd. aims to establish the Haina Chunmiao Creation Base, providing full-cycle support for young creators [4][5] - The base will offer a one-stop service space for the entire film production process, enhancing the local film industry's infrastructure [5][8] Group 3: Market Outlook - The Chinese film market is projected to see steady growth, with annual box office and audience numbers expected to surpass previous years by 2025 [4] - The shift from attention economy to emotional resonance economy highlights the need for innovative and talented creators to drive the industry forward [4][5] Group 4: Cultural Exchange - The program focuses on the unique challenges and opportunities faced by overseas filmmakers, emphasizing the need for cultural integration and collaboration in cross-border projects [3][4] - The initiative aims to foster a creative environment where diverse stories can emerge, benefiting both creators and audiences [3][4]

Core Insights - The "Haina International Youth Director Development Plan" and "Chunmiao Screenwriter Plan" are launched by Tiger Whale Entertainment Group to support young Chinese filmmakers returning from abroad [1][4] - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive support system for overseas Chinese filmmakers, encouraging them to develop their careers in China [1][7] Group 1: Talent Development Initiatives - The "Haina Plan" has attracted 70 overseas Chinese youth directors since its inception, focusing on a full-cycle growth path from learning to practical application [1][4] - The plan emphasizes the importance of integrating overseas filmmakers into the local culture, suggesting that their first projects should be based on mature story texts to avoid cultural disconnection [3][4] Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Support - A partnership agreement was signed between Tiger Whale Entertainment Group and Hainan Smart Lingfa Industrial Development Co., aiming to establish the Haina Chunmiao Creation Base in Lingshui [4][5] - The Lingshui Haigui Town is being developed as a comprehensive film industry cluster, featuring over 90 high-standard filming locations and a one-stop service space for all stages of film production [5][6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The Chinese film market is projected to see steady growth in box office revenue and audience numbers by 2025, driven by innovative and talented creators [4][5] - The shift from attention economy to emotional resonance economy highlights the need for a new generation of creators who can blend aesthetic, technical, and commercial perspectives [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [51]. Core Insights - Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. aims to enhance content production capabilities and expand IP assets, with a transaction value of approximately $82.7 billion, expected to complete within 12-18 months. This acquisition is anticipated to drive user growth for Netflix and enhance Warner Bros.' content distribution through Netflix's streaming channels [3][5]. - Kuaishou has launched the Keling AI Video O1 model, the world's first unified multimodal video model, which integrates various video generation and editing functionalities, potentially transforming applications in e-commerce, advertising, and film [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of Netflix and Warner Bros.' acquisition and business synergy, as well as the potential benefits for core suppliers like Holovis from Netflix's theme park business [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index and the media index experienced fluctuations, with the media index declining by 3.59% last week [10]. 2. Sub-industry Ratings - The film sector is rated as "Positive" [3]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements include G-bits' shareholder return plan, Century Huatong's share buyback, and New Media's cash dividend distribution [38]. 4. Industry News - Significant developments in AI include the release of new video models by Runaway and Mistral AI, and Kuaishou's introduction of the Keling AI Video O1 model [40][41][43].

市场对美联储12月降息的预期押注大幅上升，据CME FedWatch数据显示，12月降息的可能性目前约为87%。 利率决议结果将于北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3:00 公布，这将是年底前影响市场走势的关键事件。 01 美联储降息预期升温 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 12月降息概率87% 美国商务部周五公布的一份关键通胀指标显示，9月份通胀率低于预期。这份报告因政府停摆而延迟发布。 市场人士认为，美国 9 月核心 PCE 通胀指标的意外降温，显示物价月度涨幅温和，这可能会为下周美联储降息铺平道路。 受美国劳动力市场降温、 11 月 ADP 就业数据意外下降等一系列疲软数据影响，市场对美联储降息的押注持续升温。 CME" 美联储观察 " 最新数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率已升至 87.2% ，维持利率不变的概率仅为 12.8% ；到明年 1 月累计降 息 25 个基点的概率为 65.8% ，累计降息 50 个基点的概率达 25.1% 。 下一任美联储主席的热门人选、白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特周五重申预期，认为美联储决策者将在下周会议上降息。他表示： " 现在是美 ...