Economic Performance - The GDP of Shangqiu City reached 170.17 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [1] - The primary industry added value was 23.21 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%; the secondary industry added value was 63.09 billion yuan, growing by 6.2%; and the tertiary industry added value was 83.86 billion yuan, growing by 8.9% [1] Agricultural Production - The summer grain production in Shangqiu reached 9.05 billion jin, indicating a stable agricultural production situation [1] - Vegetable and edible fungus production was 4.32 million tons, growing by 3.2%; fruit production was 1.53 million tons, growing by 1.9%; and meat production from pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry was 330,600 tons, growing by 3.0% [1] Industrial Growth - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 8.7%, with 23 out of 34 industrial sectors experiencing growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 67.6% [1] - The added value of coal, chemical, and aluminum smelting industries grew by 13.0%, 13.2%, and 42.1% respectively, collectively contributing 5 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Service Sector Expansion - The added value of the service sector grew by 8.9%, with wholesale and retail growing by 7.7%, transportation, storage, and postal services growing by 8.2%, accommodation and catering growing by 9.1%, and information transmission, software, and IT services growing by 11.2% [1] - From January to May, the operating income of the service sector above designated size increased by 10.3% [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in the city grew by 6.8%, with industrial investment growing by 24.8%, surpassing the overall investment growth by 18 percentage points [2] - Private investment increased by 9.9%, accelerating by 6.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter, and exceeding the overall investment growth by 3.1 percentage points [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 78.93 billion yuan, growing by 7.6%, with 17 out of 22 categories of goods experiencing growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 77.3% [2] - Notable growth in retail sales included home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 34.4%, communication equipment at 34.6%, and automotive products at 11.4%, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrading [2]

Domestic News - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 14.1271 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Key areas such as social security and employment saw a 9.2% increase in expenditure, while science and technology and education expenditures grew by 9.1% and 5.9%, respectively [1] - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated 162 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds in two batches earlier this year, with an additional 67 billion yuan allocated recently, and the remaining funds to be distributed in October [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to manage risks in key areas of the capital market, particularly focusing on resolving real estate company bond defaults and supporting a new model for real estate development [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is advancing the development of photovoltaic module futures, with a proposed trading unit of 720 modules per contract, equivalent to approximately 453.6 kW [2] - The insurance industry association announced that the current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, with the maximum rate for new insurance products set at 2.0% [3] - The total transaction volume in China's foreign exchange market reached 25.55 trillion yuan (approximately 3.56 trillion USD) in June 2025, with the interbank market accounting for 21.88 trillion yuan [3] - The Ministry of Transport reported that inter-regional passenger flow reached 33.76 billion trips in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3] International News - Japanese investors net purchased 571.9 billion yen (approximately 3.88 billion USD) worth of Japanese stocks in the week ending July 19, marking the 15th week of net buying in 16 weeks [4] - In the UK, retail sales increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, partially offsetting a 2.8% decline in May, driven by warm weather boosting sales of beverages [4] - Turkey's manufacturing confidence index slightly decreased to 100.2 in July 2025, the lowest level since January, while the export expectations index rose slightly to 112.7 [5]

Group 1: Digital Currency Development - Digital RMB has developed applications across various sectors including retail, dining, education, and public services, forming a replicable model for online and offline use [1][7] - As of April 2025, the cumulative transaction amount of digital RMB in pilot areas reached 10.8 trillion yuan, with 2.1 billion personal wallets opened through the digital RMB app [1][7] Group 2: Supply Chain Finance and Smart Contracts - Agricultural Bank of China has integrated digital RMB smart contracts into the supply chain of Luzhou Laojiao, enabling precise control of loan funds for 2,259 downstream distributors, resulting in 2.418 billion yuan in loans [2] - Smart contracts are effectively addressing financing challenges for small and micro enterprises, enhancing fund management efficiency and reducing compliance costs [2] Group 3: Prepaid Consumption Management - Postal Savings Bank has utilized smart contract technology to address the issue of "easy recharge, difficult refund" in prepaid consumption, covering over 700 merchants and preventing consumer losses [3] - Agricultural Bank has established a regulatory system for prepaid funds, incorporating over 4,000 merchants and 1.5 billion yuan into its network, ensuring consumer protection [3] Group 4: Inclusive Finance Innovations - CITIC Bank is exploring digital RMB loan services, launching products like "信保贷" and "政采e贷" to support small and micro enterprises [4] - Postal Savings Bank has created a payment loop from planting to retail in agricultural scenarios, demonstrating the practical application of digital RMB in rural finance [4] Group 5: Cross-Border Payment Enhancements - The "Currency Bridge" project aims to improve cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs, with 35 banks from four jurisdictions participating in real transactions [8][9] - The platform can process cross-border payments in 6 to 9 seconds, significantly cutting costs compared to traditional methods [9] Group 6: Expanding Digital RMB Usage - Didi Group has integrated digital RMB into its services, allowing users to pay for bike rentals and freight services in over 250 cities [5][6] - Tencent is enhancing the digital RMB experience for foreign visitors in China, enabling them to use digital RMB in various scenarios through WeChat [10]

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment in Henan Province for the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, driven by a significant increase in private investment and industrial investment, despite declines in infrastructure and real estate development investments [1][3]. Investment Overview - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - Private investment grew by 8.3% [2][8] - Industrial investment rose by 25.9% [2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 10.6% [2] - Real estate development investment fell by 8.5% [2] Sector Analysis - First industry investment decreased by 0.7% [2] - Second industry investment increased by 25.9% [2] - Third industry investment declined by 5.8% [2] Industrial Investment Breakdown - Mining industry investment surged by 40.5% [2] - Manufacturing investment rose by 24.8% [2] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 28.3% [2] Infrastructure Investment Details - Water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management investment decreased by 1.7% [2] - Transportation and postal services investment fell by 22.2% [2] - Information transmission investment declined by 18.2% [2] Project Investment Insights - Central project investment grew by 4.0% [2] - Local project investment increased by 5.1% [2] Policy and Economic Context - The investment growth is supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and enhancing the business environment [3] - Manufacturing investment accelerated with a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, reflecting a 3.3 percentage point rise from the first quarter [4] - Key industrial chains saw a 25.2% increase in investment, indicating a focus on high-quality development [5] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 12.1%, with significant contributions from the pharmaceutical sector [6] - Equipment procurement investment surged by 26.3%, driven by industrial needs [7] - The policies promoting private sector investment have led to an 8.3% increase in private investment, with a notable rise in non-real estate projects [8] - Major projects with planned investments of over 100 million yuan saw a 9.3% increase, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [9]

Group 1: Safety Production Overview - In the first half of the year, there were 8,562 various production safety accidents nationwide, resulting in 8,079 deaths, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.9% and 17.8% respectively [1] - Major accidents totaled 4, with 70 fatalities, showing a year-on-year decline of 20% and 25.5% [1] - There were 172 significant accidents, leading to 634 deaths, which is a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% and 9.7% [1] Group 2: Ongoing Safety Issues - Despite overall improvements, certain regions and industries still face significant safety issues, including major fire accidents in crowded places and hidden fire hazards in commercial areas [1] - The transportation sector has seen serious accidents in inland water transport, with illegal passenger transport on trucks and agricultural vehicles being a notable concern [1] - The chemical and fireworks industries have experienced explosion incidents, highlighting illegal and unsafe production of hazardous materials [1] Group 3: Natural Disasters Impact - In the first half of the year, natural disasters primarily included earthquakes, floods, and geological disasters, affecting 25.037 million people and resulting in 307 deaths or missing persons [2] - Emergency relocations involved 620,000 people, with 29,600 houses collapsed and 347,200 houses damaged, alongside 2,182.9 thousand hectares of crops affected, leading to direct economic losses of 54.11 billion [2] - The third quarter is traditionally a peak period for major accidents, compounded by summer tourism and critical flood prevention efforts, increasing safety risks in key industries such as transportation and construction [2]

Group 1 - The total number of migrant workers in China in 2024 is 299.73 million, with women accounting for 37.6%, exceeding 112 million [1] - Among local migrant workers, women make up 44.2%, while among those who migrate for work, women account for 31.7% [1] - The report highlights the significant presence of female migrant workers, referred to as the "she power" of the new era, while also acknowledging the challenges they face [2][3] Group 2 - The new generation of migrant workers, particularly those born in the 1980s and 1990s, exhibit a tendency towards individualization, frequently changing jobs and seeking romantic relationships [4][5] - Many of these workers transition from a carefree work life to a more responsible one after marriage and childbirth, often leading to long-distance relationships and a shift in lifestyle [6][7] - A significant number of young male workers remain unmarried, with estimates suggesting over 10 million men aged 32 and above are single [8][9] Group 3 - The characteristics of female migrant workers include their urban-rural migration, low job stability, and involvement in various industries such as manufacturing, service, and even male-dominated sectors [15][16][19] - The rise of the digital economy has also led to many women engaging in gig economy jobs, such as delivery and ride-sharing services [19][20] - The generational divide among female workers is evident, with older generations often remaining in rural areas post-marriage, while younger generations tend to migrate for work [21][22] Group 4 - The growth of female migrant workers has been gradual since the 1980s, with their proportion among all migrant workers nearing 40% [34][36] - Factors contributing to this growth include demographic changes, declining agricultural income, and increased job opportunities in urban areas [35][36] - The trend of rural women migrating to cities is expected to continue, driven by economic necessity and changing societal norms [40][42] Group 5 - The first generation of female workers faces challenges related to insufficient retirement resources and healthcare, leading many to continue working into old age [48][49] - The new generation of female workers encounters issues such as lack of career advancement opportunities and the disruption of their careers due to family responsibilities [54][55] - The need for social security and support systems for both generations of female workers is critical to address their long-term challenges [66][67]

Group 1 - The transportation industry is defined as a production sector that utilizes various transportation tools to facilitate the movement of passengers and goods along specific routes [1] - The main transportation tools include air transport, railways, highways, waterways, and pipelines [1] Group 2 - From 2015 to 2022, the passenger transport volume by road in China showed a declining trend, with a significant drop to 5.587 billion passengers in 2022. However, it is expected to rise to 11.781 billion passengers by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - The railway passenger transport volume in China experienced a steady increase from 2009 to 2019, but fell sharply to 2.2 billion passengers in 2020 due to the pandemic, a decrease of 39.9%. It is projected to recover to 4.31 billion passengers by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [6] - The civil aviation passenger transport turnover in China grew annually from 2015 to 2019, reaching 11,705.1 billion passenger-kilometers in 2019, an increase of 9.3%. However, it plummeted to 3,913.9 billion passenger-kilometers in 2022, a decline of 66.6% compared to 2019. By 2024, it is expected to reach 12,915.0 billion passenger-kilometers, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.3% [8] - The waterway passenger transport volume in China has shown fluctuations in recent years, with a significant decline following the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the volume was 16 million passengers, dropping to 11.6 million passengers in 2022. It is anticipated to recover to 25.8 million passengers in 2023, with stability expected in 2024 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The central government has prioritized the development of the central region of China, which consists of six provinces, emphasizing its strategic importance in national economic growth and modernization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - Since the implementation of the strategy to promote the rise of the central region in 2004, the economies of the six provinces (Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan) have experienced sustained rapid growth, solidifying their roles as key contributors to national economic development [2][3]. - The GDP of the central six provinces is projected to grow from less than 15 trillion yuan in 2015 to approximately 28 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%, outpacing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [6]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Modernization - The central region is focusing on building a modern industrial system, with an emphasis on advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, while also optimizing its industrial structure [3][8]. - The region has established several advanced manufacturing clusters, including rail transit equipment in Zhuzhou, engineering machinery in Changsha, and optoelectronic information in Wuhan, showcasing its competitive edge in various sectors [8][9]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The central region aims to enhance its R&D investment to reach the national average by 2025, targeting a ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP of approximately 2.5% [4]. - Cities like Hefei and Wuhan are leveraging their educational and research institutions to foster innovation, particularly in emerging industries such as quantum computing and laser technology [9]. Group 4: Urbanization and Population Dynamics - The urbanization rate in the central six provinces is increasing at a pace faster than the national average, with projections indicating that by 2024, the urbanization rate in Henan will be 59.2% and the other five provinces will exceed 60% [6][7]. - The demographic structure is favorable, with a lower proportion of the population aged 65 and above compared to the national average, indicating a robust labor supply and long-term consumption potential [7]. Group 5: Agricultural and Energy Security - The central region plays a crucial role in ensuring national food security, contributing 28.92% of the total grain production in China in 2024, with a total output of 204.318 million tons [10]. - Shanxi, as a major coal-producing province, is also pivotal in energy security, with a coal output of 1.269 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 26.7% of the national total [10]. Group 6: Policy Support and Future Directions - The implementation of policies aimed at promoting the rise of the central region is expected to provide strong support for future development, with a focus on high-quality growth and sustainable development [7][12]. - The central provinces are encouraged to enhance their advanced manufacturing capabilities, innovate in production processes, and support the transformation of traditional industries through new technologies and business models [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association indicates a recovery in the development index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), reflecting the positive impact of government policies aimed at supporting these businesses [1][2]. Group 1: SME Development Index - In May, the SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5, an increase of 0.3 points from April, ending a two-month decline and indicating a clear recovery trend [1]. - All sub-indices, including macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive operation, market, funding, labor, input, and efficiency indices, showed improvement compared to April, while the cost index remained stable [1]. - Various industries, including manufacturing, transportation, real estate, wholesale and retail, information transmission, software, and accommodation and catering, experienced rising indices, indicating overall stability and improvement in industry operations [1]. Group 2: Government Support Initiatives - A collaborative initiative involving 17 government departments has launched the "Together Benefit Enterprises" action plan for SMEs, introducing 73 measures to enhance policy support, environmental improvement, innovation, talent development, and legal protection [2]. - The "Hundred Events, Ten Thousand Enterprises" initiative aims to facilitate market expansion for SMEs through various activities [2]. - Financial institutions have reportedly provided over 18 trillion yuan in new credit to SMEs as part of a coordinated financing support mechanism [2]. Group 3: Challenges Facing SMEs - Despite the positive trends, SMEs still face significant challenges, including cautious lending practices from financial institutions due to their small scale, lack of management standards, and insufficient collateral [3]. - Market competition remains tough, particularly for private enterprises that often deal with delayed payments and discrimination [3]. - SMEs struggle with limited funding and talent, leading to inadequate investment in technology and innovation, which hampers their competitiveness [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Effective policy implementation is crucial, with fiscal and tax incentives tailored to different regions and industries to alleviate the burden on SMEs [4]. - Monetary policy should encourage financial institutions to increase credit availability and reduce financing costs for SMEs [4]. - A fair market environment is essential, requiring the elimination of discriminatory regulations and ensuring timely payments from larger enterprises and government entities to SMEs [4].