Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the opening rate of tire enterprises is expected to have little overall fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, after the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Heze Kexin, the domestic supply increment will gradually appear, and the inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the current production of enterprises tends to be stable, and orders in the middle and late ten - days are expected to increase slightly, which will still have a small driving effect on the overall opening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 48,828, with a week - on - week increase of 237 [2]. - The spread between August and September of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber is 2,390 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton; the price of Brent crude oil is 65.25 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 68.51 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the opening rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The opening rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the opening rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2]. Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Market Overview**: The closing price of the main contract on July 23 was 11,875, a daily decrease of 225 and a weekly increase of 350. The open interest was 48,591, a daily decrease of 760 and a weekly increase of 27,888. The trading volume was 125,082, a daily increase of 3,735 and a weekly increase of 67,633 [3][13]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The number of warehouse receipts was 9,840, a daily decrease of 10. The virtual - to - real ratio was 24.69, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 14 [3][13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis (Shun Ding) was 125, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 50. The 8 - 9 month spread was 20, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 40. The 9 - 10 month spread was 20, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 15 [3][13]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,900, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 400. The Chuanhua market price was 11,750, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 250. The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300 [3][13]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 194, a daily increase of 2 and a weekly decrease of 8. The on - screen processing profit was - 219, a daily decrease of 123 and a weekly decrease of 58. The import profit was - 85,824, a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 1,981. The export profit was - 608, a daily increase of 78 and a weekly decrease of 174 [3][13]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,700, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 400. The Jiangsu market price was 9,600, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 250. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300. The CFR China price was 1,100, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 30 [3][13]. - **Processing Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 716, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 460. The import profit was 986, a daily decrease of 447 and a weekly increase of 11. The export profit was - 1,476, a daily increase of 37 and a weekly decrease of 365 [3][13]. Downstream Profits - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 219, a daily decrease of 123 and a weekly decrease of 58. The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 575, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 75. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS 791 - H production profit was 590, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 150 [3][13]. Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,700, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 2,550, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][13]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The standard - non - standard butadiene rubber spread was 250, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, with no daily change and no weekly change [3][13].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-07-22 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 在11700-12400区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12100 | 105 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 49351 | 34358 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2400 | 300 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日 ...

值得注意的是，虽然电子等台湾地区外销主力产业4-5月份对美订单大幅增长，但这与美国厂商"提前备 货"有关，并不代表无风险。调查报告发现，台湾地区高科技产业中有逾四成厂商预估未来营收将明显 下滑，"显示美国关税政策若进一步延伸至半导体及关键零组件，台湾地区整体出口结构恐将面临深层 冲击"。 调查报告同时结合多场座谈与访谈，归纳出台湾地区中小企业当前面临的五大结构性挑战，包括汇率剧 烈波动、工业电价3年累计涨幅66%、AI与绿色转型门槛、缺工与人才排挤，还有当局协助政策信息落 差等。"民间版冲击影响评估"提出五大政策建议，分别为稳定汇率、检讨能源政策、扩大稳定就业措施 与劳工保障、设立AI转型专责单位、建立贸易协助单一窗口。管中闵还提醒说，若美国经济衰退1%， 台湾地区经济衰退约0.29%，但若大陆经济衰退1%，台湾地区最高恐衰退0.39%，"因此关税战对大陆的 影响也要注意"。学者林祖嘉称，这是初步调查，未来还要思考如果"对等关税"超过30%可能带来的冲 击，以及新台币升值对产业的影响。 美国政府8月1日的"关税大限"将至，台"经济部长"郭智辉21日称"目前还在谈判中"，台"行政院副院 长"郑丽君将第4次赴美谈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The reduction of butadiene inventory supports the raw material price of synthetic rubber. However, the overall supply of the cis - butadiene rubber fundamentals remains relatively loose. Although the factory inventory is being depleted smoothly, the inventory of traders continues to accumulate. The market is waiting for an increase in new downstream orders. It is expected that the synthetic rubber will remain in a destocking state in the short - term, and the price will remain stable and show an oscillating upward trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and PetroChina's sales companies' ex - factory prices decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis in China was between 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton. The early continuous price - pressing transactions led to a significant market inversion. The price cut at the beginning of the week was in line with market expectations. The spot supply side changed little, the raw material end saw better transactions after the price decline, and the futures market of synthetic rubber quickly strengthened, driving the low - price range of the spot end to rise significantly. However, downstream terminals still maintained price - pressing purchases, and the spot market followed up slowly [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 101,800 tons (- 2.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical 3, and a set of Shanghai Secco remained shut down. Sheng Hong restarted after a short - term shutdown, which affected the production decline [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons (- 2.16%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.54%. Only a few devices had a slight decline in load this week. Some maintenance devices in North China may restart in the next cycle [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The domestic replacement market was stable during the cycle. The market had regular shipments. The continuous high - temperature weather in many regions slightly boosted the terminal replacement, but the current market inventory was high, and the focus was on digesting the existing inventory. - **All - steel tires**: Similar to the semi - steel tire market, there was no obvious performance yet. Market merchants at all levels were mainly digesting previous inventories. Some brand agents carried out small - scale self - promotions this month according to their own inventory situations. - **Overall situation**: Currently, enterprise production scheduling tends to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle of the month, which is expected to slightly drive the overall start - up, but the overall fluctuation is expected to be small. The overall market shipment is tepid, the channel supply is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. Although the hot weather has driven the downstream market demand to some extent, the overall effect is average [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.69%. The import shipments last week were limited, the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed, and the recent trading volume was limited, which led to a significant decline in the sample port inventory. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, but there was no overall pressure [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The expected price cut of the supply price, affected by the failure of an upstream device in East China at the butadiene raw material end, led to a slight overall increase in the production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in the sample trading enterprise inventory [3]. 3.4 Other Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 165 yuan/ton, in East China was - 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 65 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures price oscillated upward, the basis narrowed and remained stable, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price [3]. 3.4.2 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 3,090 yuan/ton (12.57%), the NR - BR spread was 955 yuan/ton (25.66%), and the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.32% [3]. 3.4.3 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 66 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit by C4 extraction was 1,750.82 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 276 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 2.30% [3]. 3.4.4 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC maintained its 2025 crude oil demand forecast in its July report, and oil - producing countries continued their production increase progress. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and diesel inventories increased significantly. The refined oil market was weaker than the crude oil market. China's average annual growth rate of foreign investment exceeded 5%, and the total scale ranked among the top three in the world. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy continued, and China's "anti - involution" policy continued to advance [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance situations, and geopolitical issues [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. In the medium - term, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may restrict price elasticity and upside potential [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price was 11,720 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 90,365 lots (up 20,978 lots), the open interest was 17,214 lots (down 1,197 lots), and the trading volume was 529.173 million yuan (up 129.436 million yuan) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 70 yuan (down 100 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 25 yuan (unchanged). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) increased by 50 yuan, 70 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 150 yuan and 100 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) were 12,100 yuan/ton and 10,900 yuan/ton respectively, up 150 yuan and 100 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate was 66.3354%, up 1.05% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The butadiene profit was - 482 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Industry News] - As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price and the spot and futures market once rose significantly, with the inventory of sample production enterprises decreasing and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increasing slightly [1]. - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. The reasons are: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities; the rubber sector is generally strong, with the raw material price in Thailand stabilizing and the cup - lump price rebounding slightly, and there are many weather - related speculation points for natural rubber; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the explicit inventory of synthetic rubber decreasing slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the low arrival volume of butadiene in July leading to tight port supplies [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position**: On July 17, the closing price of the main contract was 11,570, up 45 from the previous day and down 45 week - on - week; the position of the main contract was 18,411, down 2,292 from the previous day and down 8,895 week - on - week; the trading volume of the main contract was 69,387, up 11,938 from the previous day and down 34,296 week - on - week [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,100 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 9.49, down 1 from the previous day and down 6 week - on - week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30, up 55 from the previous day and up 145 week - on - week; the 7 - 8 spread was - 40, up 90 from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week; the 8 - 9 spread was - 50, down 25 week - on - week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,600, up 100 from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 188, down 2 from the previous day and down 104 week - on - week; the on - screen processing profit was - 218, down 57 from the previous day and down 249 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,823, up 20 from the previous day and down 765 week - on - week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 200 week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, up 50 from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 400 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 446, up 190 from the previous day and up 530 week - on - week; the import profit was 651, up 124 from the previous day and up 245 week - on - week; the export profit was - 1,293, down 38 from the previous day and down 357 week - on - week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The ABS production profit was 518, up 73 from the previous day and up 210 week - on - week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 670, down 70 from the previous day and down 135 week - on - week [4]. Spread - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The RU - BR spread was - 3,746, up 2,457 from the previous day and up 9,155 week - on - week; the NR - BR spread was - 5,826, up 2,387 from the previous day and up 9,080 week - on - week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,820, up 20 from the previous day and up 120 week - on - week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.