Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9475 yuan/ton, down by 75 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 145 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In August, China's butadiene production was 456,800 tons, up by 0.7% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, up by 5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.06 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month, but up by 4.4% year-on-year for January to August; full-steel tire production was 13.03 million units, up by 1% month-on-month, and up by 2.8% year-on-year for January to August [2] - As of September 11, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.3%, down by 0.2% month-on-month; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 73.5%, down by 3.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 72.6%, up by 8.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 66.3%, up by 9.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of September 10, butadiene port inventory is 25,600 tons, down by 5,350 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,300 tons, up by 1,650 tons, an increase of 6.7% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 8,210 tons, up by 950 tons, an increase of 13.1% month-on-month [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on September 11, during the current cycle (September 4-10), domestic butadiene sample total inventory slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 9.04%. Among them, sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 0.81% week-on-week, with sporadic device shutdowns or reduced load, and no significant inventory pressure from domestic manufacturers. Sample port inventory decreased by 17.29% week-on-week, with limited import shipments arriving at the port during the week, and downstream raw material inventory being normally digested, leading to a decline from last week's high point. However, there are still expectations for incoming shipments and some trade volumes for sale, necessitating cautious monitoring of inventory changes [4] Analysis - On September 11, BR followed the daily fluctuations of natural rubber, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2510 closing at 11,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, there is no significant pressure on butadiene supply in early to mid-September, while some downstream industries are expected to see a decline in operating rates. However, with concentrated arrivals of European shipments in September, the expected import volume remains relatively abundant, making it difficult for port inventory to drop to previous low levels. On the supply side, Haopu New Materials and Taiwan Rubber's styrene-butadiene rubber facilities are scheduled for maintenance in September, and some facilities in East China are also expected to undergo maintenance in October, indicating a clear expectation of reduced supply in the short to medium term. On the demand side, overall capacity utilization rates are recovering, and companies are expected to stock up inventory ahead of the National Day holiday, with capacity utilization running at a relatively high level. Overall, BR cost support is limited, and the supply-demand situation for BR remains loose, likely following fluctuations in natural rubber and commodities [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Overview - On September 10, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,720, up 30 from the previous day and down 165 from the previous week [3]. - The position volume of the main contract was 23,343, down 3,507 from the previous day and down 5,601 from the previous week [3]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 64,219, down 53,901 from the previous day and down 40,850 from the previous week [3]. Price and Basis - The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,670, up 30 from the previous day and up 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - The virtual - real ratio was 8.54, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [3]. - The Shun - Ding basis was 80, down 130 from the previous day [3]. Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 11,800, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [3]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,700, down 50 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [3]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 141, down 120 from the previous day and down 49 from the previous week [3]. - The on - disk processing profit was - 221, up 10 from the previous day and down 114 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was - 84,469, down 100 from the previous day and up 1,637 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was - 125, up 87 from the previous day and up 181 from the previous week [3]. Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 9,550, up 20 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,350, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [3]. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit was not available on September 10 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3]. - The import profit was 388, up 50 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week [3]. - The export profit was - 125, up 87 from the previous day and up 181 from the previous week [3]. Group 4: Downstream Profits - The ABS production profit data was not available on September 10 [3]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,055, unchanged from the previous day and up 105 from the previous week [3]. Group 5: Price Spreads Variety - to - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 7,363, up 3,547 from the previous day [3]. - The NR - BR spread was - 10,628, up 3,487 from the previous day and up 5,601 from the previous week [3]. - The Thai mixed - Shun - Ding spread was 3,200, up 100 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [3]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,000, up 100 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [3]. Variety - Internal Spreads - The Shun - Ding standard - non - standard price spread was 220, down 30 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [3]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 920, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [3].

Report Summary - The report focuses on the rubber market from September 3 - 9, 2025, analyzing its macro - and micro - level factors and providing a short - term outlook [5][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rubber fundamentals have no obvious contradictions. With the Fed's potential rate cut boosting monetary easing expectations and post - parade economic policies coming back as the trading mainline, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][28] Summary by Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - Rainfall in Southeast Asian natural rubber main - producing areas changed compared to the previous period, with varying impacts on tapping. The rubber market showed a narrow - range oscillation from Monday to Thursday and a stronger trend on Friday. Macro - factors improved market sentiment, and the cost side was supported. However, tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand had no strong recovery signs [5][6] - The market bets that the probability of the Fed's September rate cut is nearly 100% after the release of disappointing ADP employment data. The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month buy - out reverse repo operation [7] Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors include weather - related supply disruptions leading to stable - to - stronger raw material prices, rubber inventory reduction, and the Fed's potential rate cut with loose domestic funds. Bearish factor is the slight decline in tire operating rates [10] Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices are stable - to - stronger. As of September 4, Thai fresh glue was 55.8 baht/kg, cup - lump was 52.05 baht/kg, Yunnan glue was 14,600 yuan/ton, and Hainan glue was 13,400 yuan/ton [11] - Natural rubber inventory continued to decline slightly. As of August 31, 2025, China's social inventory was 126.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons month - on - month, and Qingdao's inventory was 60.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [14] - The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. As of September 4, the price in Shandong was 9,550 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 185 yuan/ton [15] - The supply - demand structure of butadiene rubber is relatively loose. As of September 5, the factory inventory decreased by 450 tons, while the trader inventory increased by 640 tons, and production increased by 125 tons [21] - Tire overall capacity utilization decreased. As of September 5, the capacity utilization of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased significantly due to planned maintenance, and terminal demand has not fully recovered [22] - The spread of the three major rubber contracts on the futures market was stable, indicating no internal differentiation in the rubber fundamentals [24] 后市研判 (PART 04) - From a macro perspective, the Fed's potential rate cut and domestic loose funds improved market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, raw material prices are supported, inventory pressure is reduced, but tire production utilization declined, and terminal demand is weak. Overall, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers a comprehensive set of data on synthetic rubber, including prices, basis, spreads, processing profits, and import/export profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Basis**: The BR price on September 4 was 11810, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 170. The basis and spreads showed various changes, such as the cis - butyl basis increasing by 75 daily and 120 weekly [3][4]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Virtual - Real Ratio**: The warehouse receipt quantity was 12540 on September 4, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 280. The virtual - real ratio decreased to 10.61 on September 4, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 67, the disk processing profit was - 157, the import profit was - 86106, and the export profit was - 306 on September 4 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit**: The Shandong market price of BD on September 4 was 9575, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 15. The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was 2137, the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186, the import profit was 377, and the export profit was - 975 [4]. Downstream Profits - **Production Profits**: The ABS production profit was 38, the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 20, the cis - butadiene production profit was - 157, and the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1125 on September 4 [4]. Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 10654, the NR - BR spread was - 13879, the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3080, and the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 2800 on September 4 [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 300, and the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1000 on September 4 [4]. BR Main Contract Market Overview - **Closing Price, Position, and Volume**: On August 28, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11980, the position was 30432, and the volume was 53945. On another date (not specified in detail), the closing price was 11515, the position was 41078, and the volume was 132297 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Ministry of Finance has extended the anti-dumping measures on fluororubber originating from or imported from China until February 26, 2026, affecting specific customs tariff numbers [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Anti-Dumping Investigation Timeline - The anti-dumping investigation on fluororubber from China was initiated by India on January 2, 2018 [1] - A positive final ruling was made on December 27, 2018, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties ranging from $0.078 to $7.31 per kilogram starting January 28, 2019 [1] - The first sunset review investigation was launched on February 7, 2020, with a positive final ruling on October 19, 2020 [1] - The anti-dumping duties were continued at rates of $1.04 to $8.86 per kilogram from November 27, 2020, set to expire on November 27, 2025 [1] - A second sunset review investigation was initiated on June 16, 2025 [1]

Report Overview - The report is the Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report, released by the Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team on September 3, 2025 [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR Main Contract Overview - The closing price of the main contract on September 2 was 11,820, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 25 [3][4] - The open interest of the main contract on September 2 was 31,283, a daily decrease of 1,887 and a weekly decrease of 11,837 [3][4] - The trading volume of the main contract on September 2 was 103,125, a daily decrease of 9,988 and a weekly decrease of 9,322 [3][4] 3.2 Price and Basis - The Shandong market price of BR on September 2 was 11,900, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - The Chuanhua market price of BR on September 2 was 11,800, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price of BR remained at 12,100 from August 26 to September 2 [4] - The basis of BR (Shun Ding) on September 2 was 80, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 25 [4] 3.3 Processing and Import/Export - The spot processing profit of BR on September 2 was - 67, a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly decrease of 76 [4] - The on - screen processing profit of BR on September 2 was - 147, a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly decrease of 51 [4] - The import profit of BR on September 2 was - 86,106, unchanged daily and an increase of 294 weekly [4] - The export profit of BR on September 2 was - 306, unchanged daily and an increase of 187 weekly [4] 3.4 BD (Butadiene) - The Shandong market price of BD on September 2 was 9,575, an increase of 25 compared to August 1 [4] - The Jiangsu market price of BD on September 2 was 9,375, a decrease of 125 compared to August 1 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price of BD remained at 9,500 from August 26 to September 2 [4] - The carbon four extraction profit of BD on September 1 was 2,208 [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on September 2 was 211, a decrease of 195 compared to August 1 [4] - The import profit of BD on September 2 was 402, an increase of 187 compared to August 26 [4] - The export profit of BD on September 2 was - 997, a decrease of 22 compared to August 29 [4] 3.5 Downstream Profits - The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) on September 2 was 1,138, unchanged daily and an increase of 75 weekly [4] - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) on September 2 was 1,090, unchanged daily and a decrease of 110 weekly [4] - The production profit of ABS on August 29 was 33 [4] 3.6 Price Spreads - The spread between Thai mixed rubber and Shun Ding on September 2 was 2,980, an increase of 60 daily and 130 weekly [4] - The spread between 3L and SBR on September 2 was 2,650, unchanged daily and an increase of 50 weekly [4] - The spread between standard and non - standard Shun Ding remained at 250 from August 26 to September 2 [4] - The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 on September 2 was 1,050, unchanged daily and an increase of 100 weekly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices, and the production in August reached a high level for the year. However, the pressure on production enterprises to sell goods has increased significantly under the game of rising mainstream supply prices of butadiene and cis - butadiene. The inventory of production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. This week, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. [2] - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' devices operated stably last week, but individual enterprises' overhauls dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' devices also ran stably, with most continuing the previous production - control state, and individual enterprises' overhauls and production reduction affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have overhaul plans at the beginning of this month, which may still drag down the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,670 - 12,200 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions had different changes. The basis of synthetic rubber was 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at 68.15 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.03 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was at 64.69 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.68 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 596.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.57%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.17 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.77%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, a decrease of 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. [2] - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of some devices and the increase in the load of private enterprises. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the pressure on spot sales remains. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, the operation of semi - steel tire enterprises is generally stable, but some enterprises' maintenance has affected the overall capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises continue the previous production - control state, and some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of this month may still affect the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11670 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 33170, down 2323; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, up 180 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions remains unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, and the other basis is 130 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 68.12 dollars/barrel, down 0.5 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.59 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, down 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.91%, down 0.24 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 24000 tons, down 3300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 49.57%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.85%, up 6.7 percentage points; the production profit is - 478 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.17 million tons, up 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25100 tons, up 1900 tons; the trader's inventory is 6620 tons, down 790 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12750000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56970000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.14 days, down 0.91 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. In August 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China is 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of butadiene rubber is "oscillating". In the short - term, the trend of cis - polybutadiene rubber is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the arrival of butadiene ocean - going vessels and the maintenance of cis - polybutadiene rubber on the fundamentals [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton this cycle. The cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber remained strong, but downstream buyers still tried to push down prices. Although the domestic production and capacity utilization of cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, considering the upcoming maintenance in September - November, the bearish sentiment in the market decreased [3][4]. - In terms of influencing factors, supply is bearish due to the operation status of some plants; demand is neutral with different situations in the semi - steel and all - steel tire markets; inventory is neutral with small changes and the need to pay attention to future inventory changes; basis, spread/price ratio are neutral; profit is bearish affected by production costs and market prices; geopolitical and macro factors are bearish because of OPEC+ production increase, weak domestic economic indicators and capacity reduction in the petrochemical industry [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber in China was 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of August 28, 2025. The production and capacity utilization of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, and the cost support led to an increase in the supply price of mainstream suppliers. However, downstream buyers still pressured prices [4]. 3.2 Price Comparison - The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - The prices of butadiene, cis - polybutadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber industry chain also had different degrees of change. For example, the market price of butadiene in Hangzhou increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [9]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries in China in 2025, including those of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC. It also details the maintenance situations of butadiene and high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber plants [10][11]. 3.5 Price Spread and Basis Analysis - Analyzes the cross - variety price spreads and month - to - month spreads of BR, as well as the seasonal analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC price spreads. It also presents the basis analysis of cis - polybutadiene rubber in different regions [12][13][22]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - In terms of butadiene, it shows the monthly production, apparent consumption, port and terminal inventory, as well as the production cost and profit. For cis - polybutadiene rubber, it includes the design capacity, production, import and export, inventory, cost, and profit. For styrene - butadiene rubber, it covers the capacity, production, inventory, and import and export [44][75][87]. 3.7 Downstream Market - Analyzes the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream products such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel) and conveyor belts [101][107][113].