新思界行业分析人士表示，液体异戊二烯橡胶作为一种高性能液体橡胶，应用范围较广。未来伴随市场 需求逐渐释放，我国液体异戊二烯橡胶行业发展速度有望加快。但目前，我国液体异戊二烯橡胶行业尚 处于起步阶段，未来本土企业亟需加大研发投入力度，以提升自身技术水平及产品质量。 文章来源：新思界网杨光 体异戊二烯橡胶（LIR） 根据新思界产业研究中心发布的《2025年全球及中国液体异戊二烯橡胶（LIR）产业深度研究报告》显 示，液体异戊二烯橡胶作为一种高性能液体橡胶，在电线电缆、汽车轮胎、密封件制造等领域应用较 多。在电线电缆领域，液体异戊二烯橡胶可用于制造电线电缆护套；在汽车轮胎领域，其可用于提升橡 胶轮胎的耐油性以及耐磨性；在密封件制造领域，其可用于制造航空航天密封件。未来伴随下游行业发 展速度加快，液体异戊二烯橡胶市场空间将进一步扩展。 全球液体异戊二烯橡胶市场主要参与者包括日本可乐丽株式会社（kuraray）、日本瑞翁株式会社 （Zeon）等。在本土方面，目前，我国液体异戊二烯橡胶行业尚处于起步阶段，受技术壁垒高、生产 成本高等因素限制，市场参与者较少。玛斯尼弹性体、荣灿生物、中国石化等为我国液体异戊二烯橡胶 主要生 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view was presented in the provided content; the report mainly offers data on the synthetic rubber market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on December 24 was 11395, with a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 355. The open interest was 99013, with a daily decrease of 4086 and a weekly decrease of 2363. The trading volume was 191046, with a daily increase of 34482 and a weekly increase of 63612. The warehouse receipt quantity was 23490, with a daily increase of 980 and a weekly increase of 3310. The long - short ratio was 21.08, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. - **Price Differences**: The cash - and - carry spread was - 345, with a daily decrease of 170 and a weekly decrease of 155. The butadiene - styrene price difference was not fully clear from the data. The 02 - 03 spread was - 10, with a daily increase of 5 and a weekly increase of 0; the 03 - 04 spread was - 5, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 20. The RU - BR spread was 4255, with a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 25; the NR - BR spread was 1220, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 195 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11050, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 200. The Transfar market price was 10950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11100, with a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1625, with no daily change [4]. - **Profit Indicators**: The spot processing profit was 767, with a daily decrease of 27 and a weekly increase of 149. The import profit was - 571, with a daily increase of 64 and a weekly decrease of 173. The export profit was 1166, with a daily decrease of 57 and a weekly decrease of 22 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price on December 24 was 7925, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 50. The Jiangsu market price was 7700, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7800, with no daily or weekly change. The CFR China price was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 60 [4]. - **Profit Indicators**: The ethylene cracking profit data was incomplete. The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1254, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 120. The import profit was 164, with a daily increase of 84 and a weekly decrease of 511. The export profit was - 945, with a daily increase of 279 and a weekly increase of 802. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1313, with a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS production profit was - 425, with no daily or weekly change [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of new ethylene-propylene rubber production capacity, with a project to produce 50,000 tons annually being publicly evaluated for environmental impact [1][8] - The project is initiated by Guangxi Huayi Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd., and is located in the Qinzhou Port Petrochemical Industrial Park in the China (Guangxi) Pilot Free Trade Zone [1][2][8] - Ethylene-propylene rubber is a synthetic rubber widely used in various applications, including automotive parts, waterproof materials for construction, wire and cable sheathing, heat-resistant hoses, tapes, automotive seals, and lubricant additives [2][9] Group 2 - Another project for a 50,000 tons/year ethylene-propylene rubber facility is being proposed by Lihua Yi (Lijin) Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd., with a planned location in the Lihua Yi area of the Lijin Coastal New Area Chemical Industry Park [3][10] - The project will occupy an area of 68,024 square meters and will include the construction of a corresponding auxiliary engineering, storage and transportation facilities, and environmental protection projects [3][10] - Additionally, Inner Mongolia Keda New Materials Co., Ltd. is planning a project to produce 50,000 tons of ternary ethylene-propylene rubber and 50,000 tons of rare earth polybutadiene rubber, with a total investment of 111.016 million yuan [4][11]

l js 合成橡胶早报 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 -BR基差 IIII 11400 1200 1000 11200 800 11000 600 10800 400 10600 200 10400 10200 5/1 10/1 7/1 11/1 -200 10000 -400 9800 -600 视总 05合约 02号约 03号起 04号约 01号钓 -800 2024 2025 -- 12/23 --- 12/22 --- 12/19 --- 12/16 -- 11/21 BR02-03 苯-BR基差 000 2500 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 AAN 1000 11/1 12/1 -200 500 -400 0 -600 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2024 2023 2024 2025 2025 顺丁出口利润(东南亚 BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing have increased, while downstream factories are mainly digesting their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and overall outbound shipments are lower than expected. In terms of demand, last week tire companies adjusted production flexibly, some companies controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies was weak, entering the seasonal off - peak season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory climbed, and under production and sales pressure, some companies had production suspension or limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,885 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 146,529 lots, down 1,229 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,329 lots, down 1,663 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 38,999 lots, down 105 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 13,460 lots, up 1,166 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 88,730 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 735 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,952 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 2,065 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 58.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.31 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, up 35,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 12.96%, down 0.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.64%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.78%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.79%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

2500 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 AAV 1000 11/1 2/1 -200 500 -400 0 -600 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2024 2023 2024 2025 2025 顺丁出口利润(东南亚 BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 11/1 10/1 r 12/ 9VV V12/ 11/1 5/1 - 6/1 8/1 10/1 4/1 7/1 3/1 2/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 2020 2023 2020 2024 -2021 2024 ·2025 2021 2022 2025 -2022 2023 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 10/1 12/1 6/ AMA -1000 MAF 1000 -2000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber from the United States, South Korea, and the European Union, with the measures set to expire for imports from the UK on December 20, 2025 [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping tax rates are set at 214.9%-222% for U.S. companies, 12.5%-24.5% for South Korean companies, and 14.7%-31.7% for EU companies [1] - The domestic supply structure for EPDM rubber has been restructured since the implementation of the anti-dumping policy in 2020, allowing current domestic and imported sources to meet downstream demand [1][7] Group 2: Industry Performance - The operating load rate of domestic EPDM rubber enterprises increased from 51.47% in 2020 to a projected 78.58% by 2025 [7] - The domestic EPDM rubber industry has seen significant growth in competitiveness over the past five years [8] Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - In 2020, the main sources of EPDM rubber imports to China were the U.S. (52,900 tons), South Korea (42,500 tons), and the EU (19,400 tons), accounting for 61% of total imports [9] - By 2024, imports from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan are projected to be 66,700 tons, 65,300 tons, and 14,700 tons, respectively, making up 88% of total imports [12] Group 4: Production and Demand Trends - China's EPDM rubber production is expected to grow from 278,300 tons in 2021 to 326,300 tons in 2025, reflecting a 17.25% increase [13] - The automotive sector's consumption of EPDM rubber is projected to reach 223,000 tons by 2025, indicating a stable demand structure in downstream applications [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The EPDM rubber industry is anticipated to shift from scale competition to performance customization, with technological innovation and global integration becoming core competitive advantages [14] - The continuation of anti-dumping duties is based on domestic companies' concerns about potential dumping from the U.S., South Korea, and the EU, which could harm the domestic industry [15]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 比-0.13个百分点，同比-8.67个百分点；中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为63.61%，环比-0.94个百分点， 及预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率偏弱运行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 同比+3.72个百分点。各企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，样本企业产能利用率偏弱运行。 进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 合约短线预计在15000-15650区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12200-12650区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15205 30 | 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 20号胶2-3价差 ...

l 衣 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/22 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 11/19 | 12/15 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约(12) | 10705 | 10845 | 11160 | 11040 | 11020 | -20 | 175 | | | | 持つ量 | 71378 | 98043 | 105416 | 101376 | 101995 | 619 | 3952 | | | 需可 | 成交量 | 120480 | 210063 | 181436 | 127434 | 127276 | -158 | -82787 | | | | 仓単数量 | 12030 | 19180 | 19680 | 20180 | 20810 | 630 | 1630 | | | | 虚实比 | 29.67 | 25.56 | 26.78 | 25.12 | 24.51 | -1 | -1 | | | | ...