Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [7]. Core Views - The report recommends focusing on the improving supply-demand dynamics in the aviation, oil shipping, and highway sectors while advising caution in container shipping, cross-border logistics, express delivery, and railways [1]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a slowdown in supply growth, with demand for domestic and international flights increasing by 1.7% and 26.9% respectively in March [2][14]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger load factor remains high at 83.3%, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline of ticket prices [14][17]. - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions [29]. Airports - Airports have seen a steady increase in passenger traffic, with Shanghai's two airports experiencing a 7.5% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput in Q1 2025 [30]. - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue streams to improve profitability [30][34]. Shipping and Ports - The report notes that the international freight market has been volatile due to tariff policies, with expectations of a decline in container volumes in April and May [3][37]. - Oil shipping rates are projected to improve in May due to OPEC+ production increases, while refined oil shipping rates may remain stable [39]. Highways - The highway sector demonstrated strong performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profits, making it a favorable sector for dividend plays [4]. - The report suggests that the current low interest rates and risk-averse sentiment support the valuation of dividend-paying stocks in this sector [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, with a significant year-on-year increase in parcel volume but a corresponding decline in average prices [5][61]. - The report advises caution regarding franchise-based express delivery companies while maintaining a positive long-term outlook for well-capitalized and service-oriented leaders in the sector [5][61].

跨越和德邦对利润的贡献：该行预计，25Q1，跨越的收入增速可达双位数，对公司利润贡献较为稳 定。公司和德邦的业务融合仍在有序推进。 国际业务：公司预计至2025年底海外仓面积将实现超100%的增长，并持续布局国内保税仓、直邮仓， 提升高效的全球供应链服务能力，推动国内和海外商品高效互通。 快递业务：25Q1，该行预计公司的快递业务量增速高于行业水平。快递业务方面，公司将持续加强时 效能力建设，预计2025年将投入更多的一线快递人员，保障高效物流水平。高端时效件利润水平相对较 高，公司也将着重发展该业务板块。 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，预计2025年京东物流(02618)总收入将达到2033亿 元/+11.2%，Non-IFRS净利润率达到4.0%.公司进入稳定盈利阶段后，该行对公司的估值方法由PS法转向 PE法。公司预计将在2025年加大投入，用以拓展客户和提升服务质量，该行认为其合理估值为15X，对 应目标价为19.79港币，维持"优于大市"评级。 报告指，2024年，京东物流总收入为1828亿元，同比增长9.7%。其中，来自外部客户的收入为1278亿 元，同比增长9.6%，占总收入的比例近7 ...

私募、基础设施基金上涨，黑石三季度业绩超预期。 今年第三季度黑石集团（BX.N）可分配给股东的收入同比增长 6% 至 13 亿美元。旗下私募股权基 金和基础设施基金表现强劲，分别上涨 6.3% 和 5.5%，推动基金价值上涨、幅度为三年来最高。盈 利指标超预期外，黑石资管规模创纪录、为 1.1 万亿美元。本季度，黑石还以 160 亿美元的企业价 值收购澳大利亚数据运营商 AirTrunk，是今年规模最大的一笔杠杆收购。 雀巢销量不及预期，正在精简组织架构。 雀巢（NESN.S）今年前三个季度销售额同比降 2.4% 至 671 亿瑞士法郎（约为 5521 亿元），各地 区销售额均同比降低。业绩不及预期的原因除了俄乌冲突后谷物、能源等成本变高之外，CEO 傅 乐宏还提到消费需求减弱，预期持续疲软，第四季度将进一步去库存。雀巢还在经历组织架构和执 行董事会的变动，为了 "提升集团绩效和加速转型"。 中国市场疲软，保乐力加季度表现低于预期。 烈酒公司保乐力加（PERP.PA）旗下有马爹利干邑和绝对伏特加等品牌。在截至 9 月底的财季里， 保乐力加销售额同比下降 5.9% 至 27.83 亿欧元。和 LVMH 集团一样 ...