快手 20250915 摘要 快手当前市盈率低于 10 倍，估值处于低位，为股价上涨奠定基础。在 互联网领域，如此低的估值已不多见，具备较强的反弹潜力。 快手主业企稳，尽管面临抖音视频号等竞争，但内容平台差异化竞争特 点显著，用户生态复杂，需求多样化，快手已实现 200 亿利润，且今年 一、二季度广告收入和电商 GMV 超预期，盈利可持续。 AI 技术赋能快手主业，提升变现效率。快手单位时长广告变现效率提升 空间大，AI 技术有望缩小与抖音的差距，提高广告位置效益和价格， AIGC 素材日均消耗已达 3,000 万左右水平。 快手 OneRack 推荐算法通过精准用户画像、降低成本和提高效率，提 升平台用户时长，并有望在商业化侧（广告和电商）应用，进一步提升 GMV。 可灵 AIGC 领域的新曲线发展迅速，商业化收入领先，一季度收入 1.5 亿元，二季度 2.5 亿元，5 月在 AI 视频市场规模占比达 30%，70%收 入来自海外市场，未来加大运营力度潜力巨大。 Q&A 快手的投资逻辑是什么？ 快手的投资逻辑可以分为以下几点。首先，快手当前的起始估值非常低。根据 2025 年财报，公司扣除短期负债后仍有近 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, with expectations of a potential rate cut [2][7] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.16% and significant net inflows from southbound funds [2][4] Company Overview - The specific company under review is Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B (2595.HK), established in 2017, focusing on developing new treatment solutions for tumors and autoimmune diseases [9] - The company has a product pipeline with eight candidate products, five of which are in clinical development [9] Financial Performance - Projected revenues for Jinfang Pharmaceutical are 70 million RMB in 2023, 100 million RMB in 2024, and 80 million RMB by April 30, 2025, with net losses of 510 million RMB, 680 million RMB, and 70 million RMB respectively [9] Industry Status and Outlook - The global oncology drug market is expected to grow significantly, from $143.5 billion in 2019 to $253.3 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 12.0%, and further to $596.7 billion by 2033 [10] - The Greater China oncology drug market is also expanding, projected to grow from $26.4 billion in 2019 to $35.9 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.3% [10] Advantages and Opportunities - Jinfang Pharmaceutical's first approved KRAS G12C selective inhibitor presents a strong market potential due to its safety and efficacy [11] - The company is diversifying its pipeline with innovative RAS-targeted candidates and has a robust R&D platform [11] IPO Information - The IPO period for Jinfang Pharmaceutical is from September 11 to September 16, 2025, with trading commencing on September 19 [13] - The cornerstone investors have committed a total of $100 million, indicating strong backing for the IPO [14] Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - Approximately 71% of the raised funds will be allocated to the development of core products GFH925 and GFH375, while 19% will support other candidates, and 10% will be used for operational expenses [15] Investment Recommendation - Jinfang Pharmaceutical's core product GFH925 is the first of its kind in China and the third globally, with a market capitalization estimated at around 7 billion HKD at the IPO price of 20.39 HKD [17]

最近我发现个超有意思的涨粉玩法 —— 做抖音 "今日话题" 赛道，不用复杂操作，新手也能快速起号。 前段时间我看朋友的账号，发了不到 70 个作品，粉丝量就突破了 10 万，涨粉速度特别惊人。我仔细研究后发现，这类账号的视频形式很简单：一段引人 深思的文案，配上简单的背景视频，但就是这种普通内容，很多作品点赞量超 10 万，按保守估计，播放量至少在百万以上，流量特别可观。今天就把这 个抖音今日话题涨粉项目的玩法，给大家彻底拆清楚。 今日话题: 乱套了。 要是副业没什么进展，很可能是项目选得有问题，付费买的课程实操性太差。要躲开这种陷阱，"星少思维" 这类公众号是好途径，它的教程很详尽，排 除了不接地气的项目，照着做，月入几千很轻松 先做项目介绍：这个项目本质是用 AI 工具和简单剪辑，把热门话题包装成能引发用户共鸣和讨论的视频，核心优势很突出。一是流量巨大，抖音算法对 热门话题内容有天然推荐倾向，容易获得高曝光，不用愁没播放；二是制作门槛低，不用真人出镜，也不用复杂拍摄剪辑，靠简单 AI 工具和剪映就能完 成，零基础也能上手；三是涨粉高效，这类内容能快速吸引对社会话题感兴趣的粉丝，实现快速起号。在我看来，这项 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/任梦妮 快手25Q2 实现营业收入350.46 亿元，同比增长13.1%，经调整净利润56.18 亿元，同比增长20.1%，对 应利润率16.0%，创单季度经调整净利润率新高，超出市场预期。 快手宣派上市以来的首次特别股息，每股派息0.46 港元，合共约20 亿港元。 投资要点： 商业化持续稳健增长，电商超预期跑赢大盘。25Q2，快手线上营销收入198 亿元，同比增长12.8%，环 比出现边际改善：1）外循环主要是短剧、本地生活和汽车行业同比驱动增长；2）内循环受益于全站推 等工具，销售转化率和eCPM 同向提升。快手其他收入52.37 亿元，同比增长26%，超出市场预期，电 商GMV 实现3589 亿，同比增长17.6%，跑赢大盘。电商月均买家数1.34 亿，复购频次提升。泛货架电 商GMV 占比超过32%。直播收入100 亿元，同比增长8%。OneRec 端到端模型在营销场景上，提升了点 击率和转化率，在电商场景上，提升了人货匹配的效率。 可灵技术持续迭代，25Q2 实现收入2.5 亿超预期。快手于2025 年5 月推出可灵2.1 系列模型，在模型质 量方面实现了全面提 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the transformation of the media landscape, highlighting the rise of short video platforms and the decline of traditional media [6][18][20] - It emphasizes that short videos have a low entry barrier, allowing anyone with a smartphone to become a content creator, which contrasts with the traditional media era where opportunities were limited to professionals [7][8][18] - The shift in content creation has led to a diverse range of voices and perspectives, as ordinary individuals gain visibility and influence through platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [8][24] Group 2 - The article notes that the monetization strategies have evolved, with traditional media relying on subscriptions and advertisements, while short video creators utilize live streaming and direct sales [11][16] - It highlights the effectiveness of the "short direct dual opening" model in short videos, which links advertising directly to sales, significantly increasing gross merchandise value (GMV) [14][16] - The author argues that the traditional media's focus on depth and quality is at risk if it continues to chase quick and superficial content [22][26] Group 3 - The article raises concerns about the loss of value-driven narratives in the short video era, suggesting that the algorithm-driven nature of these platforms may amplify negative societal values [24][25] - It posits that while short videos dominate the surface-level content, there remains a critical need for in-depth analysis and thoughtful journalism, akin to mining deeper resources [26][27] - The conclusion emphasizes that both short video content and traditional writing have their respective roles, with the latter being essential for deeper societal understanding [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of false medical advertisements, particularly on short video platforms, poses significant risks to consumers, comparable to telecommunication fraud [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of False Medical Advertisements - False medical advertisements create a "ripple effect," negatively impacting the healthcare industry and undermining public trust in medical professionals [2]. - Common fraudulent products include magnetic therapy mattresses, ganoderma lucidum spore powder, and various health supplements, which are often promoted by fake "doctors" using pseudoscientific claims [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Risks - Consumers, like the case of a man whose mother spent tens of thousands on sheep milk powder, often fall victim to these scams due to emotional attachment and misinformation [1]. - The fraudulent marketing strategies involve creating urgency through live broadcasts, where links are frequently changed to evade detection [1]. Group 3: Prevention Measures - Regulatory bodies have issued guidelines to clean up misleading medical content on social media, emphasizing the need for collaboration among platforms, the public, and regulatory authorities [3]. - Platforms are encouraged to implement strict penalties, including permanent bans and credit sanctions against violators [3]. Group 4: Warning Signs of Fraud - Consumers are advised to avoid engaging with suspicious advertisements that promise miraculous cures for serious conditions, as these often lead to exorbitant costs for ineffective treatments [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese internet investment landscape is experiencing a split, with the KWEB index up 30% year-to-date, while major companies report pressure on profitability [1] - The market is caught between the grand narrative of AI and the harsh realities of competition, raising questions about the sustainability of the internet sector's performance [1] Group 1: AI Development and Market Dynamics - UBS analysts emphasize that China's AI development focuses on efficiency and practical applications rather than mere capital frenzy [1] - The gap between Chinese and U.S. large models is narrowing, particularly in multimodal areas like video generation, showcasing China's global competitiveness [1] - Concerns over chip supply are deemed manageable, with leading companies employing strategies like inventory reserves and software optimization to mitigate risks [1] Group 2: Monetization Paths for AI - AI is primarily viewed as a tool for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in most Chinese enterprises, with initial profit impacts visible in financial reports [2] - Two clear monetization paths have emerged: cloud services driven by AI demand and improvements in advertising technology enhancing ROI for advertisers [2] - The development of AI agents is seen as a long-term monetization key, with enterprise-level applications expected to achieve breakthroughs first [2] Group 3: Current Internet Competition Landscape - The stock price increase in 2023 is attributed more to valuation adjustments than fundamental improvements, with funds shifting towards more certain vertical industries [3] - The intense competition in instant retail, exemplified by the food delivery subsidy wars, poses risks to long-term profitability by squeezing merchant margins [3] Group 4: Strategic Shifts in Gaming and Consumer Behavior - The gaming industry is shifting towards a more pragmatic approach, focusing on mature, long-lifecycle games rather than high-risk new releases [4] - Consumer behavior shows a divide, with physical retail struggling while sectors like gaming and music remain robust [4] Group 5: E-commerce Performance - Online retail continues to outperform offline, driven by increasingly intelligent operational strategies from e-commerce platforms [5] Group 6: Investment Outlook - UBS suggests investors seek certainty, favoring Hong Kong stocks and sectors with clear profit visibility, such as gaming and online tourism [6] - AI chip companies, despite high P/E ratios, are supported by scarcity, strong growth, and robust market demand [6] - The Chinese tech industry is entering a new phase, moving away from growth-at-all-costs narratives to a focus on tangible commercial value [6]

Core Insights - Kuaishou has seen significant growth in its creator ecosystem, with over 2.87 million followers for creator An Wan, who has leveraged the platform to revive traditional Qinqiang opera [1] - The number of creators with over 10,000 followers has increased by over 100% year-on-year, and the number of professional streamers has grown by 8% [1] - Kuaishou's integrated short video and live streaming approach has enhanced content creation efficiency, with dual-format creators achieving 4-10 times higher traffic efficiency compared to single-format creators [2] Group 1: Creator Growth and Monetization - Kuaishou reported that 26 million creators earned income on the platform last year, with nearly 12% growth in creators earning over 1,000 CNY monthly [1][3] - The platform's daily commercial content output exceeds 6.6 million, attracting over 320 million users and generating significant engagement with over 22 million likes [3] - Kuaishou has facilitated over 160 large-scale brand projects, engaging more than 1,300 clients with creators for collaborative marketing efforts [3] Group 2: AI Technology and Content Creation - Kuaishou's AI content viewership has surged by 321% since July, indicating a growing trend in AI-generated content [4] - The company has provided AI services to over 20,000 enterprises across various sectors, enhancing the content creation landscape [4] - New AI features such as "video sound effects" and "multi-image reference" have been introduced to improve the quality and consistency of content creation [5][7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Industry Trends - Analysts from Dongfang Securities are optimistic about Kuaishou's technological advancements, predicting that AI will accelerate market penetration and create new industry opportunities [7] - The ongoing evolution of AI tools is expected to enhance Kuaishou's competitive edge in content creation and monetization [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised Kuaishou's target price to HKD 83 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] - The firm believes Kuaishou demonstrates differentiated content, a sticky community ecosystem, and effective strategies in short video platform advertising and e-commerce [2] - Optimism regarding Kuaishou's artificial intelligence initiatives and the potential of its "Keling" feature has contributed to the upward revision of its valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating a constructive view on Kuaishou's differentiated content and sticky community ecosystem, as well as a more optimistic outlook on the company's AI plans and the potential of Kling [1] Summary by Categories Advertising and E-commerce Strategy - Kuaishou's management shared insights on the advertising and e-commerce strategies of the short video platform, which are seen positively by Goldman Sachs [1] Artificial Intelligence Integration - The report highlights how artificial intelligence is being integrated into Kuaishou's systems, contributing to a more favorable assessment of the company's future prospects [1] Valuation Adjustment - Goldman Sachs raised its valuation basis for Kuaishou, increasing the target price from HKD 77 to HKD 83 and adjusting the target price-to-earnings ratio from 13x to 14x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]