国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年3月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格小幅回撤 | | 本周尽管地缘冲突转入僵持阶段，双方暂时没有进一步加剧冲突的意向。从当前的物流数据来看，中东地区的燃料油出口物流3月可能仍然将下 降，但物流的流向正在发生转变，波斯湾区域内的出口正在下降，而红海区 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The downstream sector shows resistance to high-priced products, leading to a noticeable decline in the prices of certain chemical products [1]. - The price difference for key domestic refining projects decreased by 9.05% week-on-week, while the price difference for international projects increased by 7.46% [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's average price increased by 7.65% week-on-week, reaching $104.61 per barrel [2][3]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Geopolitical tensions, including attacks on oil tankers and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices [2][15]. - As of March 20, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $112.19 and $98.23 per barrel, respectively [15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have risen, but the price differences have narrowed [15]. Chemical Sector - Some chemical product prices have significantly corrected due to supply recovery and demand resistance to high-priced goods [2]. - Polyolefin price differences are fluctuating, while EVA prices are supported by supply constraints [2]. - Benzene prices have decreased due to market dynamics, with a notable drop in styrene prices as production resumes [2][52]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - In the polyester sector, PX prices have decreased, while PTA and MEG prices continue to rise [2]. - The supply of polyester filament has increased, but demand remains weak due to transportation issues [2]. Market Performance - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed significant declines, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 16.96% in the past week [2]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical's stock has decreased by 22.48% [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年3月20日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.2个百分点至21.8%，较去年同期低了4.7个百分点，处于近 年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年3月份国内沥青预计排产218.7万吨，环比增加25.1万吨， 增幅为13.0%，同比减少4.3万吨，减幅为1.9%。本周，春节假期结束后，下游逐步复工，沥青下游各 行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨1个百分点至10%，仍低于1月底水平。本周，华东 地区炼厂供应减少，加上高价抑制成交，其出货量下降较多，全国出货量环比减少37.6%至10.99万吨， 仍处于偏低水平。沥青厂库库存率环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。山东地区沥青价格 稳定，基差有所修复，但仍处于偏低水平。中国进口委内瑞拉原油预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降， 加上现如今美以袭击伊朗，中东原料供给将受影响，市场担忧国内炼厂原料短缺，关注国内炼厂原 料短缺情况。中国进口伊朗沥青不多，进口阿联酋、伊拉克等中东沥青占比沥青进口量的一半，不 过相比于中国沥青产量也仅有6%左右。下周齐鲁石化复产，但华东华南主力炼厂降负荷，预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 2187,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - Basis: On March 19, the spot price in Shandong was 4200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 425 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1,179,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%; the in - plant inventory was 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. Social inventory continued to accumulate, in - plant inventory continued to deplete, and port inventory continued to deplete, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and overall demand is lower than expected. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4534 - 4716 [7]. - Bullish factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main positions, and expectations are comprehensively analyzed. The overall fundamental situation is bullish, and it is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4534 - 4716 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase, with the 06 contract rising by 5.11%. The basis of most contracts increased, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13.23%. The prices of some monthly spreads also changed [14]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased by 2.61%, in - plant inventory decreased by 0.25%, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 5.88%. Weekly开工率, output, shipment volume, and profit data also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2023, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [24]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: The report provides the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among different products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The report shows the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The report presents the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the relative profitability of different production processes [43]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: The report shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation [46]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report presents the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply of raw materials [49]. - Output: The report shows the weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the overall supply situation [52]. - Venezuelan crude oil price and monthly output trend: The report presents the historical price trends of Venezuelan crude oil and its monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [57]. - Local refinery asphalt output: The report shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply structure [59]. -开工率: The report presents the weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity [62]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: The report shows the historical maintenance loss volume estimate trends from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on supply [65]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the inventory situation [68][69]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory structure [72]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation [76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the international trade situation [79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: The report shows the historical price difference trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the cost advantage of imports [82]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke output: The report shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the demand for related products [85]. - Apparent consumption: The report presents the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year are used to analyze the downstream demand situation [91][92]. - Downstream machinery demand: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, which helps to analyze the demand for construction machinery [96][98]. - Asphalt开工率: The report presents the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream开工率 from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in different fields [100][102][105]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the gradual accumulation of damage to Middle Eastern energy facilities. However, after the oil price has continuously risen to a high level, market volatility has further intensified, and any marginal news changes may cause significant price fluctuations, disturbing the trends of FU and LU [1]. - The potential risks in the fuel oil market are still huge. If the Strait is blocked for too long, the contradiction will be more prominent after the accumulated on - land and floating storage inventories of fuel oil are consumed. The number of attacked refineries in the Middle East is increasing, and the shutdown of Middle Eastern refineries is rising, making the refined oil contradiction more prominent. Even if the Strait is navigable, the supply of Middle Eastern fuel oil may not recover quickly in the short term. The potential incremental supply may come from Russia, whose refineries are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to late March, and there is room for an increase in the supply of refined oil including fuel oil. Although the direct export proportion of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is not high, the production of refineries in the Asia - Pacific region has declined passively due to insufficient raw materials, and the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low - sulfur fuel oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures dropped 3.28% to 4,806 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 3.46% to 5,886 yuan/ton. The market situation is still tense, and market fluctuations have intensified after the oil price has reached a high level [1]. Potential Risks and Incremental Supply - Potential risks in the fuel oil market are huge. If the Strait is blocked for a long time, the fuel oil inventory consumption will lead to more prominent contradictions. The number of attacked refineries in the Middle East is increasing, and the supply may not recover quickly even if the Strait is navigable. Russia's refineries are expected to resume operation in mid - to late March, and there is room for an increase in the supply of refined oil including fuel oil, which may hedge the supply gap to some extent, but the problem needs the Strait to resume navigation to be substantially alleviated. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the production in the Asia - Pacific region has declined due to raw material shortages, and the diesel premium has a boosting effect [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly, with large market fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly, with large market fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cross - variety: No recommendation. - Cross - period: No recommendation. - Spot - futures: No recommendation. - Options: No recommendation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of A-share companies during the annual report disclosure period, highlighting both strong performers and those reporting losses, indicating a significant transformation in the A-share ecosystem [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Companies - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688.SH) reported a loss of over 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, with revenue declining by 13.28% to 75.563 billion yuan, marking a 552.64% decrease in net profit [6][12]. - Lai Mei Pharmaceutical (300006.SZ) also recorded a loss, with revenue of 0.776 billion yuan, down 2.5%, and a net loss of 0.135 billion yuan, a 53.42% decline [7][12]. - A total of 144 A-share companies disclosed their 2025 annual reports, with 24 companies reporting net losses, accounting for less than 20% of the total [3][10]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The primary reason for the losses among several companies is the downturn in industry cycles, with many facing cash flow issues and undergoing painful transformations [3][16]. - Shanghai Petrochemical's losses were attributed to fluctuating international oil prices and a decline in product prices, alongside reduced production due to maintenance [6][12]. - Lai Mei Pharmaceutical's losses were linked to decreased sales volume and prices, as well as ongoing R&D investments impacting operational profits [7][8]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Insights - The phenomenon of companies voluntarily disclosing losses reflects a rationalization of the market, with firms aiming to manage financial pressures proactively [4]. - Analysts predict that the overall performance of A-share companies will face challenges due to macroeconomic transitions and industry clearances, although sectors like high-end manufacturing and hard technology show strong structural growth [16][17]. - The article emphasizes the need for investors to focus on the quality of earnings and cash flow, particularly in light of the concentrated release of negative information from loss-making companies [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report High - sulfur Fuel Oil - The core view is neutral - bullish. The escalation of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing about 35%+ of the global seaborne high - sulfur fuel oil exports (mainly from Iran) to be interrupted. The increase in Russian fuel oil exports cannot make up for the shortfall in Middle Eastern fuel oil exports. The Asian fuel oil trading window is active, and the spot price of Sin 380 cst is strengthening. In the short term, the contraction of supply and the recovery of demand are in resonance, and the market remains tight. Although OPEC+ announced on March 1st that it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April to suppress the panic premium, the rigid supply gap and the irreversible logistics cost caused by geopolitical factors cannot be eliminated in the short term. The fuel oil price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the high - level shock pattern will continue [4]. - The crack spread is neutral - bullish. Driven by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the supply cut from Iran, the crack spread of Sin 380 high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened recently, and the discount has narrowed. The crack spread has strengthened to $10 per barrel. In the future, under the game of a small increase in production by OPEC+ and continuous geopolitical disturbances, the crack spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is likely to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - The supply is bullish. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has hindered shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and fuel oil seaborne transportation faces the risk of interruption [4]. - The demand is neutral. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of Asian shipping has driven up the bunker demand [4]. - The inventory is neutral. Singapore has seen inventory accumulation, while Fujairah has seen inventory depletion [4]. Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The core view is neutral - bullish. The escalation of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade have led to about 20% of global crude oil transportation being受阻, causing oil prices to soar. The cost of low - sulfur fuel oil has been directly increased. Refineries have prioritized the production of gasoline and diesel due to the tightening of raw materials, resulting in a tightening of low - sulfur supply. The domestic low - sulfur production and production scheduling have remained at a low level. The RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery restarted in mid - February, and the subsequent low - sulfur supply will decrease. The low - sulfur supply in Singapore has tightened. The first batch of low - sulfur export quotas in 2026 was issued at 8 million tons, the same as in previous years. The low - sulfur power generation season has not yet arrived. Future attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and refinery equipment conditions [5]. - The crack spread is bullish. The strong support from the crude oil cost side, the marginal tightening of low - sulfur supply, and the recovery of bunker demand have closed the east - west arbitrage window [5]. - The supply is bullish. The RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery restarted in mid - February, and the subsequent low - sulfur supply will decrease. In March 2026, the domestic low - sulfur production scheduling was 955,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease [5]. - The demand is neutral. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of Asian shipping has driven up the bunker demand [5]. - The inventory is neutral. Singapore has seen inventory accumulation, while Fujairah has seen inventory depletion [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Focus - **Geopolitical Conflict and Oil Export Reduction**: The escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in Iran's oil product exports. As of March 15, 2026, the inventory in Fujairah dropped to 1.07 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the previous month. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a depletion of arrivals, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has plummeted by 17% in a single week, and the supply - demand gap is difficult to repair in the short term. As of March 17, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been fully blocked by Iran, and shipping has actually stagnated, directly affecting about 20% - 25% of global seaborne crude oil (daily throughput: 18 - 21 million barrels per day) and more than 35% of high - sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) (daily throughput: 250,000 - 300,000 barrels per day) seaborne exports. OPEC+ announced on March 1, 2026, that it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April 1, 2026, higher than the market expectation of 137,000 barrels per day [7][16]. - **Tightening of the Asian Fuel Oil Market**: The core supply sources have decreased. Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil exports have dropped to zero, and the supply from other Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait) is restricted. More than 90% of the HSFO exports from these countries pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade of the strait has led to an interruption of about 250,000 - 300,000 barrels per day of Middle Eastern HSFO exports, accounting for 35% - 40% of the global total. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, Asian shipping activities have recovered, and the bunker demand has gradually increased, further depleting the low - level inventory. Iran has stopped supplying natural gas to Iraq, and Iraq has restarted fuel oil power generation, increasing internal consumption and reducing exports. Due to the escalation of the US - Iran - Israel conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, market panic has spread, and the geopolitical premium of HSFO has increased significantly, with active buying and strong reluctance to sell. In March, the Asian fuel oil trading window was active. As of March 16, 2026, a total of 300,000 tons of high - sulfur fuel oil and 240,000 tons of low - sulfur fuel oil were traded in the Asian window [17][21][22]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals High - sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - **Increased Russian Exports**: The US has relaxed sanctions on Russia, and Russian fuel oil exports have increased. In early March, the price of Russian oil bottomed out and rebounded, and the flow direction has changed. The discount of Russian oil has risen significantly. Currently, the Espo discount is at +$3 per barrel (it was -$5.5 per barrel in early March). After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, the high - sulfur exports from the Middle East were interrupted by about 250,000 - 300,000 barrels per day (accounting for 35% - 40% of the global total), and the Asian supply was in short supply and prices soared. Russia has accelerated shipments to China, Singapore, and South Asia, and the shipment volume in early March has exceeded 70% of the total in February. As of March 16, 2026, the weekly average export of Russian HSFO was 660,000 tons. The US issued a global - applicable exemption on March 12 (until April 1), allowing the trading of Russian oil/oil products loaded before March 12. About 30 million barrels of Russian oil have been snapped up. After the exemption expires on April 11, new shipments will still be subject to sanctions, and exports may decline again. However, the increase in Russian fuel oil exports cannot fill the shortfall in Middle Eastern fuel oil exports. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an almost complete cut - off of high - sulfur fuel oil exports from the Persian Gulf, with a monthly average reduction of about 3 - 3.5 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia in March are expected to be about 2.45 million tons. Even with a significant month - on - month increase, the monthly increase is capped at about 1 million tons, and the net shortfall is still 2 - 2.5 million tons per month [26][29]. - **Reduced Middle Eastern Exports**: Recently, the high - sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) exports from the Middle East have suffered a cliff - like interruption due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 15, 2026, the weekly export of Middle Eastern HSFO was 530,000 tons, and the weekly export of Iranian HSFO was 110,000 tons. Iraq's SOMO has tendered for 6 million tons of HSFO from January to June. In the short term, the weekly export volume of Middle Eastern HSFO is expected to remain at 850,000 tons. Iraq's continuous increase in output and Saudi Arabia's stable output will offset the decline in Iran. The resumption of navigation in the strait is difficult to fully recover in the short term, and Middle Eastern exports may only recover to 30% - 50% of the normal level before April [30][34]. - **Increased Mexican Exports**: As of March 15, 2026, the weekly average export of HSFO from Latin America was 340,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. After the US took control of Venezuela's oil industry, Venezuela's high - sulfur exports have recovered, with a weekly average export of 100,000 tons, the same as in February. From February to March 2026, the operating rate of the Olmeca refinery has recovered to 85% - 87%. Although the new coking unit (470,000 tons per month) in Tula has been put into operation, the feed load has been insufficient and the operation has been unstable from February to March, and the high - sulfur fuel oil yield has recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil from Mexico matches the demand of heavy refineries in the US Gulf, and the geopolitical risk is low, the logistics is short, and the freight is low, so the arbitrage window has been significantly opened [36][38]. - **Tightened Supply in Singapore and Malaysia**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an interruption of exports from major high - sulfur producing countries in the Middle East such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, resulting in a global monthly loss of about 3 - 3.5 million tons of high - sulfur supply. About 30% of Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil comes from the Middle East, and the arrival volume from the Middle East in March has decreased by more than 70% month - on - month. The main import sources have shifted from the Middle East to Russia, Malaysia, and the US. As of March 16, 2026, the floating storage of HSFO in Singapore was 350,000 tons, and the fuel oil inventory was 380,000 tons [39][48]. Low - sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - **Reduced Supply after Dangote Refinery Restart**: The RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery restarted in mid - February, and the subsequent low - sulfur exports will decrease. According to Bloomberg, the Dangote refinery (650,000 barrels per day) promoted the month - on - month increase in LSFO output and exports in December due to the overhaul of the RFCC unit (240,000 barrels per day) (starting on December 4, planned for 50 days), and the full - month export is expected to be 150,000 - 180,000 tons. The AI - Zour refinery's device overhaul and production reduction have led to a decrease in exports. The AI - Zour refinery originally planned to start its annual overhaul in April but actually started the overhaul of key devices in mid - to late February, which is expected to result in a monthly export reduction of 400,000 - 600,000 tons. In 2025, from October to November, the catalytic cracking units of the Redonda and Ponta da Madeira refineries under the Brazilian National Petroleum Company (Petrobras) were overhauled, resulting in a decrease in LSFO output. The overhauls were gradually completed in December, and the device load recovered to about 90%, with the daily LSFO output increasing to 35,000 - 40,000 barrels. In December 2025, Brazil's low - sulfur exports were 1 million tons, and in January 2026, Brazil's low - sulfur exports were 1.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 170,000 tons [49][51][53]. - **Reduced Imports and Exports in Singapore and Malaysia**: As of March 15, 2026, the weekly average import of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Malaysia was 150,000 tons, and the weekly average export was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. The import has decreased significantly. The Strait of Hormuz was basically blocked in early March. About 20% of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil comes from the Middle East, and the arrival volume from the Middle East in March has dropped by more than 70%. The east - west arbitrage window has closed. The sharp increase in crude oil and freight rates and the soaring insurance costs (war risk insurance rates have risen to 1% - 3%) have led to a more than 60% month - on - month decrease in low - sulfur cargoes from Europe to Singapore in March. The supply from the Middle East and Africa has decreased. The device of the Nigerian Dangote refinery restarted on February 15, and the low - sulfur fuel oil exports have decreased from 360,000 tons in January to 170,000 tons in February, significantly reducing the supply to the Singapore and Malaysia regions. Due to the geopolitical disturbances in Iran, exports are restricted, and Middle Eastern low - sulfur supplies have been diverted to Europe/other regions, resulting in a decrease in arrivals. The bunker demand has increased. Before the Spring Festival, there was bunker stockpiling, and the bunker demand in Singapore has recovered. Traders have given priority to meeting the local market and reduced export volumes [58][62]. - **Increased Chinese Production Scheduling**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' production of low - sulfur bunker fuel for bonded use was 832,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,000 tons, a decline of 2.46%. Sinopec's production increased month - on - month, while PetroChina's and CNOOC's production decreased month - on - month. Sinochem and local refineries have not produced low - sulfur fuel oil for the time being. In February, due to the poor production and processing profit of low - sulfur fuel oil and the fewer natural days, the production enthusiasm of major refineries was still not high, dragging down the domestic low - sulfur fuel oil supply to remain at a low level. The total production scheduling of domestic low - sulfur fuel oil in March 2026 is expected to be about 960,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the February output. The first batch of fuel oil export quotas in 2026 was issued, totaling 8 million tons, the same as the first - batch export quotas in previous years. Among them, PetroChina received 3.06 million tons, Sinopec received 3.72 million tons, Sinochem received 60,000 tons, and CNOOC received 1.16 million tons. In 2025, Sinopec and PetroChina converted a total of 900,000 tons of low - sulfur quotas into refined oil quotas, and CNOOC converted 700,000 tons of refined oil quotas into low - sulfur quotas. It is expected that the conversion scale in 2026 may reach 1 - 1.2 million tons, further restricting the actual low - sulfur export volume [63][67]. High - sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - **Power Generation Demand**: The LNG device in Egypt is under maintenance until the end of March, and the HSFO power generation demand in Q1 2026 has increased quarter - on - quarter. After the device returns, the HSFO imports will decrease by 100,000 tons per month. In February 2026, Egypt's HSFO imports were 250,000 tons. The Jafurah gas field in Saudi Arabia was put into operation in December 2025. The production has been climbing in 2026, with a target of supplying 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day in 2030. It is expected to replace 200,000 tons per month of high - sulfur fuel oil power generation demand in 2026, and up to 500,000 tons per month during the power generation peak season [68][77]. - **Bunker Demand**: In February 2026, the total bunker volume in Singapore was 4.67 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 850,000 tons, - 10.6%; a year - on - year increase of 12.8%), of which the high - sulfur fuel oil bunker volume was 1.83 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 15.2%), and the low - sulfur fuel

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The risk of supply in the Middle East is continuously accumulating, and the market support remains relatively strong. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly. There are potential drivers on both the supply and demand sides. If the Strait is blocked for too long, the contradiction will be more prominent after the inventory of fuel oil on land and in floating warehouses is consumed. The increase in refinery start - up rates in Russia may hedge the supply gap to some extent, but the substantial alleviation of the problem still requires the resumption of navigation in the Strait [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.4% at 4,771 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.09% at 5,641 yuan/ton. Due to the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to energy facilities in the Middle East, the fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening. The situation remains tense, with the number of passing ships in the Strait of Hormuz remaining low, and the scope of attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East expanding. On the demand side, countries like Egypt and Pakistan may increase fuel oil procurement due to tight natural gas supply, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increases ship fuel consumption and shifts the bunker fueling demand to ports in the Asia - Pacific region [1] Potential Increment - The potential increment comes from Russia. After the refinery start - up rate in Russia recovers, the supply of refined oil products including fuel oil has room for growth, which may hedge the supply gap to some extent. However, the substantial alleviation of the problem requires the resumption of navigation in the Strait [2] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with large market fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with large market fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report Core View - No information provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The data shows the prices and spreads of different fuel oil types in Rotterdam from March 10 - 16, 2026. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 0.64 from March 10 to 16 [1]. - The spreads such as Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 and Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 also changed during this period, with increases or decreases [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - In Singapore, the prices of 380cst, 180cst, VLSFO, and GO M1, as well as their spreads with Brent and other factors, are presented. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 15.05 from March 10 to 16 [1]. - The Singapore fuel oil spot data shows the FOB prices of 380cst and VLSFO, 380 - base, and high - and low - sulfur internal - external spreads. The high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 14.9 from March 10 to 16 [2]. Domestic FU Data - The prices of domestic FU contracts (FU 01, FU 05, FU 09) and their spreads (FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, FU 09 - 01) are provided. For example, the price of FU 01 increased by 82 from March 10 to 16 [2]. Domestic LU Data - The prices of domestic LU contracts (LU 01, LU 05, LU 09) and their spreads (LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, LU 09 - 01) are given. The price of LU 01 increased by 113 from March 10 to 16 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support. Given the tense situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the expectation of refinery production cuts has increased. It is predicted that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations. Investors should participate with caution and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the supply side, last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the estimated domestic asphalt production is 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [3] - After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production. After the price increase, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the shipment volume increased significantly. The national shipment volume increased by 12.67% week-on-week to 176,100 tons, but it was still at a relatively low level [3][25] - The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week-on-week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [3][35] - The asphalt price in Shandong adjusted downward, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. With the current attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries in March [3] - A small amount of Iranian asphalt is imported into China. Asphalt imported from the Middle East, such as the UAE and Iraq, accounts for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production [3] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovered. The asphalt market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support [3] Price and Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to -119 yuan/ton, being at a relatively low level [15] Operating Rate - Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years [20] Demand - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [30] - As of the week ending March 13, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][30] Inventory - As of the week ending March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared to the week ending March 6, and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35]