1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery has reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The inventory remains stable, and the cost support from crude oil strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of national sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% [8]. - **Basis**: On November 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port - diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The document provides the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The document shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are provided [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The document shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 are shown [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventories of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [49][50] - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are provided [53][55] - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical output trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56][57] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are shown [59][60] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The historical estimated trends of maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided [61][62] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented [64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown [68][69] - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided [71][72] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [74][75] - The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown [77][78][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are provided [80][81] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [83][84] - **Downstream Demand** - The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown [86][87][88] - The historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are provided [90][91][92] - The historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [95][96] - The historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [98][99] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation** - The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided [100][101][103] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, port - diluted asphalt inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

Group 1: Industry Performance - The petrochemical index saw an overall increase, with six indices rising and only the chemical machinery index declining by 4.02% [1] - The chemical raw materials index rose by 3.44%, the pharmaceutical index increased by 3.09%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index went up by 3.18% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 1.84%, the oil extraction index rose by 1.42%, and the oil trading index surged by 7.39% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices experienced slight upward fluctuations, with WTI settling at $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% from November 7, and Brent at $64.39 per barrel, up 1.19% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases included DMC (up 18.18%), natural rubber (up 13.22%), D4 (up 13.04%), 107 glue (up 12.71%), and methyl acrylate (up 8.03%) [1] - The five petrochemical products with the largest price declines were isooctyl acrylate (down 7.69%), 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (down 4.29%), dichloromethane (down 3.64%), diethylene glycol (down 3.53%), and vitamin D3 (down 3.33%) [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Shida Shenghua (up 43.44%), Yongtai Technology (up 33.89%), Aoke Shares (up 23.36%), Taihe Technology (up 23.59%), and Kaisheng New Materials (up 23.03%) [2] - The five listed chemical companies with the largest stock price declines included Xiangyuan New Materials (down 15.42%), Xinhang New Materials (down 14.15%), Dongcai Technology (down 13.52%), Kaili New Materials (down 12.60%), and Asia-Pacific Industry (down 11.16%) [2]

发布时间：2025年11月17日 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.7个百分点至29.0%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减 幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥青开工环比下降1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水 平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区供应减少，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少31.02%至21.3万吨， 处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比转而小幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。山东胜星等炼厂计划 转产渣油，沥青开工率将维持低位。北方气温持续下降，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增 量有限。欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短缺40万桶/日调 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 本周沥青跟随原油震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：本周沥青跟随原油震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）11月地炼排产降低：四大生产主体表现分化，11 月排产受季节、装置检修等因素影响呈现环比下滑态势。11 月国内沥青总排产计划 225 万吨，环 | | | | | | 比减少 18%），同比减少 7 万吨（降幅 3%），整体供应收缩。中石油：排产 41 万吨，环比减 14 万吨、同比增 8 万吨。北方气温走低导 | 48 万吨（降幅 | | | | | 致需求下滑，克石化、辽河石化等降产，叠加中油秦皇岛停产，拖累环比产量。中石化：排产 35 万吨，环比减 8 万吨、同比减 30 万吨。广石化检修至 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil price at $64.39 per barrel (up 1.19%) and WTI at $59.39 per barrel (down 0.75%) as of November 14, 2025 [2][19] - The oil and petrochemical sector outperformed the market, with a 2.29% increase compared to a 1.08% decline in the CSI 300 index [10] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 210.63% since 2022, indicating strong growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, increasing by $0.76 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, decreasing by $0.45 per barrel [2][19] Offshore Drilling Services - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 370, an increase of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 128 [21] Oil Supply - As of November 7, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [35] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 417, with an increase of 3 rigs [35] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.973 million barrels per day, an increase of 717,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40% [47] Oil Inventory - As of November 7, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 838 million barrels, an increase of 7.211 million barrels [55]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown an upward trend, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2336.60 CNY/ton, up by 25.35 CNY/ton (+1.10%) week-on-week, while the international price differential reached 1436.69 CNY/ton, increasing by 67.88 CNY/ton (+4.96%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price was reported at 63.92 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [2][3] - The report notes that the polyester and nylon sectors are experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly in the polyester filament segment, driven by increased demand and a rise in raw material prices [2][3] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Saudi Arabia has lowered the December crude oil selling price to Asia in response to ample supply, leading to concerns over oversupply and a subsequent decline in international oil prices [2][3] - In the latter part of the week, China's crude oil imports increased, and a decline in the US dollar boosted market sentiment, contributing to a slight recovery in international oil prices [2][3] - The report indicates that domestic diesel and gasoline prices have seen slight increases, with average prices at 6788.57 CNY/ton (+105.86), 7626.57 CNY/ton (+12.29), respectively [2][3] Chemical Sector - The chemical products market remains weak, with supply-side disturbances affecting prices. Polyolefin prices are stable but slightly declining, while EVA prices have also seen a minor decrease [2][3] - The report mentions that pure benzene prices have continued to decline due to increased supply at the East China terminal, leading to a slight narrowing of price differentials [2][3] - The profitability of nylon fibers remains weak, while polyester filament production is increasing, supported by seasonal demand for winter fabrics [2][3] Market Performance - The stock performance of six major private refining companies shows varied results, with Oriental Energy seeing a significant increase of 10.13% in stock price over the week [2][3] - Over the past month, Hengli Petrochemical has experienced a stock price increase of 14.38%, indicating positive market sentiment towards certain companies in the sector [2][3]

10月份，河南规模以上工业原煤生产同比微增，原油加工因部分企业检修增速下降，电力生产小幅下 降。与9月份相比，原煤生产增速放缓，原油加工由增转降，电力生产降幅收窄。 一、原煤、原油加工生产情况 原煤生产同比微增，与上月相比增速放缓。10月份，全省规模以上工业原煤产量913.00万吨，同比增长 0.8%，增速比9月份降低5.6个百分点，日均产量29.45万吨。 1-10月份，全省规模以上工业原煤产量8921.71万吨，同比增长3.2%。 原油加工由增转降。10月份，部分原油加工企业生产装置进行检修改造，全省规模以上工业加工原油 68.12万吨，同比下降11.1%，增速比9月份降低28.0个百分点。 1-10月份，全省规模以上工业发电量2905.03亿千瓦时，同比增长1.6%。 分品种看，10月份，火力发电量下降6.7%，降幅比9月份收窄5.2个百分点；水力发电量增长36.3%，增 速比9月份提高31.2个百分点；风力发电量由9月份的下降28.3%转为增长6.2%；太阳能发电量下降 19.4%，降幅比9月份扩大7.8个百分点。 附注： 1、统计范围 报告中的产量数据统计口径均为规模以上工业，其统计范围为年主营业务 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-6月山东省燃料油产量统计分析 2025年6月燃料油产量统计： 燃料油产量：141.1 万吨 2025年1-6月燃料油产量统计： 燃料油产量：867.5 万吨 同比增长：13.7% 同比增长：25.4% 增速较上一年同期变化：高41.8个百分点 据统计，2025年6月山东省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比增长了25.4%，达141.1万吨， 增速较上一年同期高41.8个百分点，增速较同期全国高23.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业燃料 油产量362.8万吨的比重为38.9%。 详见下图： 图1：山东省燃料油产量分月（当月值）统计图 增速较上一年同期变化：高17.1个百分点 据统计，2025年1－6月，山东省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比增长了13.7%，达867.5万 吨，增速较上一年同期高17.1个百分点，增速较同期全国高16.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 燃料油产量2160.8万吨的比重为40.1%。详见下图： 图2：山东省燃料油产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and the crude oil supply surplus situation is becoming more obvious, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and a weakening of the asphalt basis. The spot price is weak, and the market is cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%). Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken, while the increase in southern projects is limited [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 21,300 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Price: The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil supply surplus pattern has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The forward low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively, the asphalt basis in Shandong has weakened recently, and the spot price is weak, causing the asphalt futures price to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.10% to 3,037 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,001 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,021 to 192,751 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 37 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since late October, affected by supply - side disturbances and seasonal weakness in demand, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line. In a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that fuel oil will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. - In the context of increasing macro - risks, the fuel oil futures market is under short - term pressure, and its subsequent trend depends more on the structural changes on the supply side rather than the strong recovery of demand [3]. - Although the short - term macro - outlook is weak and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the fuel oil futures price, the restricted supply pattern of Russian fuel oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums will still exist. Affected by the recent sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it is expected that fuel oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since late October, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line [2]. Macro - factors - Recent "hawkish" signals from Fed officials mean that the US will maintain a high - interest - rate environment for a longer time, which boosts the US dollar index. The government "shutdown" has dragged down the economy, and the weakening macro - expectations will have multiple impacts on the fuel oil futures market [2]. - High - interest - rate environment suppresses global economic growth expectations and the demand for dollar - denominated commodities, increasing the volatility and risk of trading and indirectly suppressing the consumption demand for marine fuel oil [2]. Supply - side Factors - Since August 2025, Russian energy facilities have been frequently attacked, and its refining capacity has declined by about 20% as of the end of October. In November, the US and the EU further tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies, reducing its export capacity [3]. - In the Middle East, some Saudi refineries are in the maintenance cycle, and some Kuwaiti refineries have shut down part of their production capacity due to device fires. In Latin America, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in countries such as Mexico shows a seasonal decline, and new secondary processing devices in some refineries will also restrict supply growth [3]. Demand - side Factors - As the crude oil quota of domestic refineries is running out in the fourth quarter, some refineries tend to purchase high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock for delayed coking units, providing new demand support [4]. - The number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers globally has exceeded 4500 in 2025. Due to the economic advantages of using high - sulfur fuel oil after installation, the demand from this part of the fleet remains stable [4].