Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Contract Information**: From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - plate glass remained at 996.0, while Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - plate glass dropped by 17.0 to 976.0. The FG05 contract price decreased by 41.0 to 1103.0, and the FG09 contract price decreased by 29.0 to 1209.0. The FG 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.0 to - 106.0 [1]. - **Base and Profit Information**: The 05 Hebei basis changed from - 151.0 to - 127.0, and the 05 Hubei basis changed from - 154.0 to - 113.0. The North China coal - fired profit decreased by 11.4 to 90.3, and the cost decreased by 5.6 to 885.7. The South China natural gas profit remained at - 188.1, and the North China natural gas profit decreased by 12.8 to - 364.5. The 05FG and 09FG on - screen natural gas profits also changed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Shahe factory's glass production and sales were fair, with poor spot - futures trading; Shahe traders' prices were around 975, with average shipments. Hubei factories' prices were around 990, with fair trading. Hubei's mid - stream spot - futures 05 - 150 had poor trading. The glass production and sales rates were 135 in Shahe, 90 in Hubei, 91 in East China, and 105 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price and Contract Information**: From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased by 40.0 to 1150.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 36.0 to 1192.0. The SA01 contract price decreased by 26.0 to 1115.0, and the SA09 contract price decreased by 36.0 to 1259.0. The SA01 Shahe basis changed from 49.0 to 35.0, and the SA month - spread 01 - 05 remained at - 77.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost Information**: The North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased by 17.5 to - 218.0, and the cost decreased by 2.5 to 1338.0. The North China combined - soda process profit decreased by 54.9 to - 319.7 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry remained stable, and the mid - stream inventory slightly increased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Supply: Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, leading to a continued decline in glass output. With current profit pressures on glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [5][14]. - Demand: Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [5][18]. - Inventory: Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. With cold repairs implemented, the glass supply - demand pattern has improved. It is advisable to adopt a slightly bullish trading strategy, with the glass index expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes) [5][22]. - Cost and profit: Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. - Key events to watch: Glass output, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - Supply: Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [6][47]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons), and the weekly apparent demand for soda ash was 589,200 tons (-138,100 tons) [6][53]. - Inventory: Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to adopt a bearish trading strategy when prices are high, while controlling risks. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1170 - 1280. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [6][57]. - Cost and profit: According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. - Key events to watch: Alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass output [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of January 9th, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1040 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The glass price in the mainstream market was running strongly [10]. Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, and glass output continued to decline. With current weak profits of glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [14]. Demand - Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [18]. Inventory - Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes). In North China, overall inventory decreased, but there was significant differentiation. In Shahe, production enterprises had good sales and significant inventory reduction, driving down the overall inventory in North China, while the surrounding areas had mediocre sales. In Central China, production and sales varied, with the second half of the week showing better production and sales than the first half, and overall inventory decreased compared to the previous period. Last week, the end - of - period inventory of glass factories in East China was 11.425 million weight boxes (-44,600 weight boxes); in North China, it was 9.3296 million weight boxes (-816,800 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 11.468 million weight boxes (-232,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 6.565 million weight boxes (-185,000 weight boxes) [22][26]. Cost and profit - Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 124, a week - on - week decrease of 37; the spread between the glass 5 - 9 contracts was - 94, a week - on - week decrease of 10. The glass spot price weakened, and the futures price fluctuated, resulting in a weaker basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis level is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The glass spread shows a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contracts [37]. Soda Ash Price - As of January 9th, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton. The price of light soda ash in the mainstream market remained stable, while the price of heavy soda ash was running strongly [43]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [47]. Demand - Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons) [53]. Inventory - Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [57]. Cost and profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 40, a week - on - week increase of 37; the spread between the soda ash 5 - 9 contracts was - 67, a week - on - week decrease of 2. The soda ash spot price increased significantly, while the futures price declined after rising, resulting in a stronger basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The high inventory of alkali plants exerts some pressure on the spot price. The different - month spreads of soda ash show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contract supply - demand pattern [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Glass Market - Last week, the sentiment in the glass market shifted from strong to weak, with the futures market experiencing a volatile correction. The supply - side daily melting volume remained at a low level, and there were no obvious restart plans in the short term. On the demand - side, downstream processors were gradually entering the holiday mode. Although there was some rush - work in certain areas, the overall restocking intention was weak, and the speculative demand from traders was also inactive. The consumption side remained sluggish. In terms of inventory, despite the low production driving the continuous reduction of factory inventory, the current inventory level was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Downstream players generally maintained a low - inventory operation strategy, and procurement was mostly for immediate needs. In the spot market, some manufacturers tried to raise prices at the beginning of the week, but due to the decline in futures prices and insufficient actual order support, the price increase was not fully implemented. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the glass market remained in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal drivers. It was expected that the futures market would continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range between 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [13][14]. Soda Ash Market - Last week, the soda ash market continued to show a weak and volatile pattern. Fundamentally, the industry's operating rate on the supply - side remained at a high level, and the overall market supply was abundant. The demand - side remained weak, with downstream enterprises being cautious in procurement, mostly focusing on low - price immediate needs. The market trading atmosphere was generally dull. As a result, new orders from manufacturers were mediocre, and although the enterprise inventory had a slight reduction, the overall pressure still existed. Currently, the supply - demand game in the soda ash market continued, and there were no obvious driving factors for the market. It was expected that the market would continue to undergo weak consolidation in the short term, with the main contract reference price range between 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [13][37]. - **Demand**: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 159 yuan/ton (- 39), the 05 - 09 spread was - 107 yuan/ton (- 17), the 09 - 01 spread was 266 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, an increase of 0.70 days from the previous week. The operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [51]. Soda Ash Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots. The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][71][79]. - **Supply**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [62][101][104]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: As of January 17, 2026, the price of thermal coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [101][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints For Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals of steel have slightly improved, but due to cold weather, the demand in the off - season will deepen. The market is hesitant, and steel mills' profitability is low, so there is still upward pressure. For iron ore, overseas shipments are falling, but previous shipments are arriving at ports, resulting in a loose supply situation, high port inventories, and a slight decline in daily hot metal production. It is recommended to operate with caution [69]. - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment situation [70]. For Glass and Soda Ash - In the medium - to - long - term, the number of glass production lines remains stable, weekly production decreases, supply is at a low level, and inventory pressure is relieved but still high year - on - year. The real - estate off - season continues, and cost support weakens, so the glass fundamentals are under pressure. For soda ash, industry maintenance is mostly over, capacity utilization has significantly increased, overall inventory is high, downstream glass production has decreased, and weak terminal demand persists [73]. - In the short - term, glass and soda ash will maintain a weak operation, waiting for demand guidance [74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2026/1/9 Closing Price | 2026/1/16 Closing Price | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2605 | 3144 | 3163 | 19 | 1 | 3300 | 137 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2605 | 3294 | 3315 | 21 | 1 | 3310 | - 5 | | Iron ore | I2605 | 815 | 812 | - 3 | - 0 | 832 | 20 | | Coke | J2605 | 1748 | 1717 | - 31 | - 2 | 1570 | - 147 | | Coking coal | JM2605 | 1196 | 1171 | - 25 | - 2 | 1370 | 199 | | Glass | FG605 | 1144 | 1103 | - 41 | - 4 | 1170 | 67 | | Soda ash | SA605 | 1228 | 1192 | - 36 | - 3 | 1234 | 42 | [3] Rebar Supply Side - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons; the rebar output was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons [13]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9034 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,800 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 86,175 tons [19]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the social inventory of rebar was 2.9541 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,700 tons [24]. Iron Ore Supply Side - In the week of January 9, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3.1809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.015 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 190,300 tons [29]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17.2887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244,260 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9.26222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 272,630 tons [34]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 335,020 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1940 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 98,120 tons [39]. Float Glass Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 212, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,052,315 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6930 tons. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [44]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 53.013 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 days [49]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from downstream glass manufacturers was 9.3 days [53]. Soda Ash Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.82%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 775,300 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons compared with last week [56]. In - plant Inventory - As of January 16, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2300 tons [61]. Production and Sales Rate - As of January 16, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is oscillating weakly [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, soda ash production is increasing, demand is average, and the purchasing willingness is weak. With the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there may be a rebound due to interest - rate cut news, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed lower, showing a weakening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened wide, indicating a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 210,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 30,978 lots. The highest price was 1228, the lowest was 1185, and the closing price was 1193, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market was stable with oscillations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably with few overhauls, and production remained at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment was average, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and mainly low - price replenishment [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from 84.39% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the water - cooling and cold - repair of glass production lines [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to increased costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Recently, a glass production line started production, and the cold - repair rhythm slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery of the rigid demand for soda ash. Additionally, there is some short - term support under continuous losses. Overall, with increasing soda ash production, average demand, weak purchasing willingness, and the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although it may rebound due to interest - rate cut news, considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the text Group 3: Glass Summary Price and Contract Information - From January 7 - 14, 2026, the price of 5mm glass plates from different manufacturers showed fluctuations. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 985.0 to 996.0, while the price of FG05 contract decreased from 1148.0 to 1096.0 [2] - The FG 5 - 9 spread decreased from -105.0 to -115.0, and the 05 Hebei basis increased from -164.0 to -116.0 [2] Production and Sales - Shahe's glass production - sales rate was 91, Hubei's was 91, East China's was 95, and South China's was 110 [2] - Shahe factory's glass production - sales declined, with poor spot - futures trading; Shahe traders' prices were around 980 with average sales; Hubei factories' prices were around 990 with declining sales; Hubei's mid - stream spot - futures trading for 03 contract at -80 was also poor [2] Profit and Cost - North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 86.4 to 86.2, and the cost increased from 897.6 to 893.8 [2] - South China's natural gas glass profit remained at -188.1, and North China's natural gas glass profit decreased from -358.6 to -366.8 [2] - The 05FG and 09FG on - disk natural gas profits decreased from -263.8 to -265.9 and from -164.6 to -163.9 respectively [2] Group 4: Soda Ash Summary Price and Contract Information - From January 7 - 14, 2026, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1230.0 to 1170.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased from 1271.0 to 1222.0 [2] - The SA01 Shahe basis increased from 14.0 to 34.0, and the SA monthly spread 01 - 05 decreased from -76.0 to -86.0 [2] Industry Situation - The upstream inventory of soda ash slightly decreased, and the mid - stream inventory slightly increased; the production of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased [2] Profit and Cost - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from -211.8 to -191.8, and North China's combined - soda process profit increased from -303.0 to -284.0 [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: aa Soda Ash Futures Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [5] - Futures Practitioner License Number: F03108920 [5] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0018403 [5] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the prices of heavy - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, and Shache were 1200, 1170, and 1160 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 0, and - 70. The price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Northwest was 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20. The prices of light - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, North China, and the Northwest were 1120, 1140, 1220, and 890 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 20, 40, and 20. The light - heavy price difference in East China was 30 [4]. Futures Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were all 0, with daily changes of - 1212, - 1273, and - 1136 and weekly changes of - 1271, - 1329, and - 1183. The main contract's open interest was 0, with a daily change of - 1183 and a weekly change of - 1041221. The main contract's trading volume was 0, with a daily change of - 1041362 and a weekly change of - 2265606. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with a daily change of - 5213 and a weekly change of - 5276 [4]. Basis (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the basis of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were N/A [4]. Spread (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05 - 09, SA09 - 01, and SA01 - 05 spreads were N/A, with daily changes of 2, - 16, and 143 and weekly changes of 8, - 11, and 3 [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - As of January 9, 2026, the soda ash production was 750,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The capacity utilization rate was 84%, with a week - on - week increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.57 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The apparent demand was 590,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%. The profit of the combined soda process was - 40 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13% and a year - on - year increase of 326%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 58 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 39% and a year - on - year decrease of 16% [4]. Group 3: Market Judgment Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shache changed by - 25 to 1160 Yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai changed by 0 to 860 Yuan/ton. The price of light - duty soda ash in East China changed by 0 to 1140 Yuan/ton, and the light - heavy price difference was 38 Yuan/ton [7]. Important News - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The domestic soda ash market showed general trends, with small price fluctuations and narrow - range adjustments. The equipment was operating stably without maintenance. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly on - demand. The futures price declined, the sentiment slowed down, and the wait - and - see sentiment was strong. The soda ash market in Shache showed narrow - range fluctuations, the futures price declined at a low level, and there was appropriate low - price trading in the market. The current spot - futures basis quotes are as follows: Hebei warehouse pickup 03 - 40 or 05 - 50 to 80, Shache delivery 05 - 50, Hubei warehouse pickup 05 - 50, Inner Mongolia factory pickup 05 - 300 to 320, Shandong factory pickup 05 - 30 [8]. Logical Analysis - The soda ash trend was weak, with more declines than increases in commodities. The daily production was 111,000 tons. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The inventory decreased slightly on Monday. As of now, 32% of downstream glass enterprises' raw material samples had a factory inventory of 23.91 days, an increase of 3.2 days. On the cost side, the theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 40 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. With poor fundamentals, the high - inventory pressure will be tested by pre - Spring Festival rigid - demand purchases. Looking at a longer cycle and waiting for an opportunity to short, the market will fluctuate widely this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely this week and wait for an opportunity to short. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices for far - month contracts [10] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of soda ash basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipt number, main contract open interest, main contract trading volume, weekly production, factory inventory, apparent demand, ammonia - soda process profit, and combined soda process profit [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1239 yuan/ton to 1212 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.18%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1185 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The main basis changed from - 54 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.70% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - alkali method is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production method is - 40 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.65%, and the weekly output is 75.36 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.45 tons, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass has weakened [4]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 157.27 tons, an increase of 11.67% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and the industry output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4].

Group 1: Glass Market - The main contract for glass traded weakly, closing at 1096 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.09% [7][8] - On the spot market, manufacturers' prices remained stable compared to the previous day, with traders showing cautious sentiment and a wait-and-see approach [7][8] - Market sentiment has cooled, with a noticeable decrease in speculative demand; although maintenance continues, overall supply has contracted, but demand has not improved significantly, leading to weakened support from the supply side [7][8] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - The main contract for soda ash also showed a weak performance, with a slight decline in the closing price [8] - On the spot market, some manufacturers have lowered their prices, while downstream enterprises are primarily focused on essential purchases [8] - There has been a slight increase in operating rates, but medium to long-term supply pressure remains unrelieved; attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity releases and cost changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest price, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, providing a basis for market analysis and investment decisions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From January 6th to January 13th, 2026, prices of various glass products in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 959.0 to 996.0, with a weekly change of 37.0 and no daily change on January 13th. FG05 contract price had a weekly change of 4.0 and a daily change of - 47.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 110, Hubei's was 112, East China's was 93, and South China's was 125. Shahe factories had high production - sales, with middle - stream buyers purchasing. Shahe traders' prices were around 984, with average sales. Hubei factories raised prices to around 990, with good sales [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's coal - fired glass profit increased from 64.9 to 94.4, with a weekly change of 29.5 and a daily change of 6.3. The cost of North China's coal - fired glass had a weekly change of 8.5 and a daily change of - 6.3 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From January 6th to January 13th, 2026, prices of different types of soda ash in various regions changed. For instance, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1190.0 to 1150.0 on January 13th, with a daily change of - 40.0. SA05 contract price had a weekly change of 22.0 and a daily change of - 27.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Upstream inventory of soda ash slightly decreased, and the output of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased. The spot price of heavy soda at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150 [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's ammonia - soda method profit decreased from - 181.2 to - 211.8, with a weekly change of 11.7 and a daily change of - 30.6. North China's combined - soda method profit decreased from - 269.8 to - 303.0, with a weekly change of - 25.7 and a daily change of - 33.2 [2].