纯碱学名碳酸钠，是一种基础化工原料，广泛应用于工业制造、食品加工和日常生活三大领域，是被誉为"化 工之母"三酸两碱中的两碱之一。周光耀从20岁参加工作起，便与纯碱结下了不解之缘。 周光耀1954年在大连碱厂参加工作成为一名技术人员，1965年调入化工部第八设计院成为一名纯碱设计工程 师，后任中国成达工程公司副总工程师、首席技术专家，1995年7月当选中国工程院化工、冶金与材料工程学 部院士，成为化工部所属设计院第一位中国工程院院士。期间，他研发多项高效、低碳绿色技术，成功运用 到纯碱工程项目建设中，有力推动了我国纯碱产业的大型化、绿色化和现代化发展。在周光耀院士90岁之 际，特刊发此文，致敬其为我国纯碱事业发展做出的重要贡献。 矢志求学 走上纯碱报国之路 周光耀1935年12月出生于浙江宁波鄞县的一个小镇。家中有兄弟姐妹8个，他排行老四。父亲在镇上开了一家 小杂货店，勉强维持家中基本生活。 1942年初，周光耀在鄞县姜山小学读书。1949年初，周光耀考入宁波一所著名的私立学校效实中学读初中。 在中学，他对化学很感兴趣，每次做化学实验时，都会被玻璃器皿里奇妙变幻的液体和气体所吸引。 1951年7月，周光耀以年级 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据 显示：本周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且 伴随淡季到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰 动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需 采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加 0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位 震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯 碱价格的影响。 策略 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】128 ...

1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 玻璃、纯碱： 上半年偏弱 下半年或有好转 ---2026 年玻璃纯碱期货行情展望 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 Zhangchi4@gtht.com 报告导读： 玻璃方面，玻璃行业核心矛盾仍然在需求偏弱，2026 年需求预计难有大幅好转。期货升水现货，仓单对估值压 力进一步促使玻璃价格持续走弱。需求不佳而期货高升水情况下，如果供应端能够大幅收缩，市场或能逆转。 2025 年下半年政策端开始反通缩、反内卷为未来供应收缩提供了可能，尤其需要注意 2026 年下半年湖北地区 能源转换方面的进度，或是 2026 年供应端变动幅度较大区域。2025 年四季度到 2026 年上半年部分装置因窑 龄、环保等因素停产，幅度预估在 3%-5%左右，如能执行则对市场有明显支撑。在需求端，预计房地产行业仍 将维持匍匐状态，难有大规模扩张，限制行业发展的债务问题需要时间。当然政策端一系列稳市场措施将会对 近年来困扰行业多年的资金周转因素或有可能阶段性缓解，有利于玻璃需求稳定。在估值方面，占国内总产能 56%的天然气装置亏损幅度 15.8%左右，其他煤制气、石油焦类装置基本在盈亏平衡 ...

10，成交尚可 玻璃产销：沙河79，湖北79，华东98，华南104 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1110.0 | 1140.0 | 1140.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1158.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1100.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1094.0 | 1133.0 | 1127.0 | 33.0 | -6.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1218.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of 5mm glass in various regions decreased. For example, the price of 5mm glass at Shache Anquan dropped from 1044.0 to 984.0, a decrease of 60.0; FG05 contract price decreased from 1076.0 to 1038.0, a decrease of 38.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shache's glass production - sales rate was 98, Hubei's was 75, East China's was 94, and South China's was 104. Shache factories had fair production - sales, while Shache traders' low - price sales were average, and futures - spot sales were good. Hubei's factory transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 91.8 to 63.9, a decrease of 27.9; 05FG's spot natural gas profit decreased from - 278.3 to - 313.0, a decrease of 34.6 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of heavy soda ash in some regions increased. For example, Shache's heavy soda ash price increased from 1120.0 to 1140.0, an increase of 20.0; SA05 contract price decreased from 1186.0 to 1170.0, a decrease of 16.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Upstream soda ash inventory accumulated, and Yuanxing's second - phase project was put into production. North China's light soda ash price increased by 50.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda ash profit increased from - 277.1 to - 250.4, an increase of 26.7; North China's combined - soda ash profit increased from - 390.5 to - 363.9, an increase of 26.5 [2].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 967 984 967 990 940 935 1016 1092 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 12合约 01合约 05合约 09合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(12/12） 昨日(12/11） 一周前(12/5） 一月前(11/12） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations; the near - month 01 contract of glass will follow the delivery logic with a focus on warehouse receipt games, while soda ash is cost - priced with limited upward valuation elasticity; currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, and soda ash is in a state of supply - demand surplus [2]. - For short - term trading, the 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. With unclear short - term drivers, it is advisable to observe [6]. Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: Some glass production lines may undergo cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, affecting far - month pricing. The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, and the middle - stream high inventory and off - season demand suppress spot prices [2]. - Soda ash: It is cost - priced. Although there are occasional supply cut - backs, new production capacities are pending, and the output remains at a medium - high level. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: There are still differences in the near - term spot market. The cold repair expectation and middle - stream high inventory require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. Observe due to unclear short - term drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average price of glass spot decreased slightly. The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 3.51%, the 09 contract by 3.02%, and the 01 contract by 2.2% [8][9]. - Soda ash: The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash also declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 2.34%, the 09 contract by 2.31%, and the 01 contract by 0.91% [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, leading to potential supply - side policy expectations [12]. - Bearish information: The high inventory of glass in the middle - stream persists, and there is still room for price cuts, affecting the delivery price of the 01 contract. New production capacities of soda ash are expected to be put into operation, and the expectation of glass cold repairs will reduce the rigid demand for soda ash [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near delivery. The increase in near - term cold repairs and middle - stream high inventory lead to differences in the spot market, while far - month supply cuts and cost increases may affect market pricing and expectations [15]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass began to narrow this week, showing a positive spread trend, mainly because the near - month contract has a low valuation and short - sellers shifted to far - month contracts. - Soda ash: It generally maintains a C - structure. This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread of soda ash strengthened from around - 70 to around - 30. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term outlook has deteriorated again [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas - fired production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,240 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1,170 yuan/ton [33][34]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in October exceeded 21 million tons, maintaining high expectations [36]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [43]. - Soda ash: The current daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 104,000 - 105,000 tons. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [46]. 5.2 Demand - side and Projections - Glass: Terminal demand remains weak, downstream replenishment is limited in the off - season, and the middle - stream maintains high - level low - price replenishment. The 01 contract mainly focuses on warehouse receipt games [49]. - Soda ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is temporarily stable, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken [58][59]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The manufacturer's inventory is 58.227 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.216 million weight boxes (- 2.05%), and a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [65]. - Soda ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4943 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons. The upstream inventory is being depleted, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good [65].

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供需弱平衡状态， 高库存制约涨势 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/12/13 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 价格：截至2025/12/13，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1040元/吨，环比-30元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报935元/吨，环比-59元/吨；基差105元/吨， 环比上周+29元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/12/13，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-196.42元/吨，环比+26.58元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价4400元/吨， 环比+250元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为6.51元/吨，环比-0.01元/吨；以石油焦为 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 谨慎追空 PTA 加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车 检修 5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能 源 1#检修中），供应端压力有所缓解；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织 造订单持续下行）。成本端支撑弱化。短期来看，供需偏紧，但 12 月存 累库预期。 乙二醇 ★ 偏空 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下降（茂名石化月初停车 2 月，中海壳牌 2 期本周停车检修 10 天，中化泉州停车 2 月，富德能源本周停车检修，盛 虹炼化 100 万吨装置停车至明年 5 月。值得注意的是，煤化工前期检修装 置复产，整体有所提负），海外装置整体也略有降负（台湾中纤、东联停 车，伊朗 Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周；美国南亚装置停车中、GCGV 降负运行）；下游需求相对较好但预期 走弱。12 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低，但缺乏向上驱动。短期跟随成 本波动，原油短期反弹但不改承压态势。 甲醇 ★ 偏空 太仓现货止跌，港口库存环比 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 1002.0 | -42.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1131.0 | 1062.0 | 1053.0 | -78.0 | -9.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1010.0 | 964.0 | 956.0 | -54.0 | -8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...