本报讯（记者 张梦）为了进一步打造"期货期权、场内场外"联动贯通的市场格局，近日，郑商所携手 中国期货市场监控中心（下称监控中心）在湖北武汉成功举办玻璃和纯碱产业企业"期权+"专题培训活 动。据期货日报记者了解，本次培训选址玻璃、纯碱主产区，面向产业企业、期现贸易商及期货公司的 风险管理公司，旨在提升企业综合运用期货、期权工具及期现业务的能力与水平，满足企业在风险管理 和贸易模式转型升级中的多样化需求。 "期货市场在发挥功能的同时，因高杠杆、跨市场等特性也具有高风险特征，强化风险防控始终是期货 市场发展的重要任务。"上述监控中心相关负责人称，在现代市场经济条件下，金融市场的复杂性、技 术性特征日益突出，大家要充分了解和全面认识期货市场的总体特征和功能。本次培训正是基于此初衷 给玻璃和纯碱产业企业提供学习、交流和共享的平台，帮助大家充分了解期货市场的运作原理和运行机 制，掌握交易策略的基本规则和风险管理技能。 据记者了解，本次培训从当前宏观经济与大宗商品风险管理实际出发，涵盖玻璃、纯碱期货和期权基础 知识，以及基差贸易、期权体系、含权贸易、交割等内容，系统讲解了期货工具在企业采购、销售和库 存管理中的实际应用， ...

今日纯碱期货市场整体呈现弱势震荡格局，价格承压下行。尽管碱厂延续去库态势，且部分下游企业节前补库带动需 求，但供应维持高位、库存总量仍处历史同期较高水平，市场心态普遍谨慎。玻璃期价持续走弱进一步拖累产业链情 绪，纯碱现货报价虽暂稳，但行业利润亏损扩大，加之供需过剩格局未改，制约价格反弹动力，整体表现疲软。 | 规格 | 市场 | 9 月 19 日 | 9 月 22 日 | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1150-1550 | 1150-1580 | 0/30 | | | 华中市场 | 1140-1320 | 1140-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000-1200 | -1000-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1360-1430 | 1360-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1300-1400 | 1300-1400 ...

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1180左右，送到沙河1210左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存较大幅度下行 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1143 1155 1143 1060 1082 1079 1199 1329 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/22） 昨日(9/19） 一周前(9/15） 一月前(8/22） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure. However, with the "anti - involution" hype, there may be changes. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the supply and demand situation remains at a low level. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1293 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1199 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: down 8 yuan/ton; soda ash main contract open interest: 1420087 hands; glass main contract open interest: 1274079 hands, down 18252 hands [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 234955, up 24971; glass top 20 net open interest: - 193441, up 10196 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2154 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 754 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 108 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass basis: - 119 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - 1 - 5 month glass contract spread: - 127 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; 1 - 5 month soda ash contract spread: - 89 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - North China heavy soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1080 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.53%, down 1.76%; float glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 175.56 million tons, up 0.85 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6090.8 million heavy boxes, down 67.5 million heavy boxes [2]. 下游情况 - Real - estate new construction area cumulative value: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; real - estate completion area cumulative value: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant increased production, with a light soda ash quote of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia problems, with stable prices [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year soda ash plant reduced operation, with a load of about 70% [2]. - Shandong Haihua's 3 million tons/year soda ash plant reduced operation [2]. - Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 tons/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% load [2]. - Henan Tongbai Haijing's plant had one line under maintenance from September 13th, expected for 10 days, with stable prices [2]. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory's plant boiler was ignited [2]. - The Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, with expected increased supply after plant resumption, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. 提示关注 - There is no news today [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price changes, production and sales, and profit margins [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40, while the price of Shandong 5mm large - plate remained unchanged. Futures contracts such as FG05 and FG01 also had price increases [2] - **Production and Sales**: In the glass market, the production and sales in Shahe area declined, with poor shipments at low prices. In Hubei, factory transactions were acceptable, but the transactions of new products in the middle - reaches were poor. The production and sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 88, Hubei 102, East China 99, and South China 102 [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources varied. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 7.7, and the profit of South China natural - gas glass decreased by 6.3. The cost of North China coal - fired glass increased by 16.7 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions generally increased. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased by 30, and the price of North China light soda increased by 40. Futures contracts such as SA05 and SA01 also had price increases [2] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased significantly, while the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of soda ash production in different production methods and regions also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 6.2, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 35.5. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 28.3 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

Report on Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment showed a trend of first declining and then rising during the week. Driven by the strengthening of futures, local trading improved slightly. However, the overall terminal demand remained weak, with downstream procurement being cautious and a strong wait - and - see sentiment. On the supply side, there were limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply was relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintained stable prices for shipments, with actual transactions flexibly adjusted. Regional inventory performance was significantly differentiated, with better destocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still faced certain inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, the market lacked unilateral driving factors, and the price fluctuation range was limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume and open interest decreased this week, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong, but the price center continued to rise. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the trading volume is expected to form support at low levels, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels with a light position [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [13]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [13]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [13]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the supply side, it was generally stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu resumed production one after another, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance still led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stocking willingness of some enterprises gradually increased, and they replenished inventory in moderation at low prices, driving the enterprise inventory to show a downward trend. Some manufacturers' orders were basically fully signed, and the mentality of stabilizing prices was strengthened. However, the current industry supply was still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level was still relatively high, so the upward driving force of the fundamentals was still limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume this week was small, and an effective breakthrough could not be formed. The form was relatively loose, and it was still in a volatile market. It was recommended to be cautious [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [62]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week [62]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [62]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [62]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [62]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in Northwest China was 205 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [96]. 05. Inventory - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [101][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, with a divergence in far - month pricing and uncertainty about near - term direction, which depends on the downstream destocking ability during the peak season [2] - For glass, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, the phased restocking ability is weak, some production lines may have ignition plans, and policy expectations fluctuate. The daily melting on the supply side is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expected. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high, normal maintenance continues, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II in the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and there is an expectation of price increase. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.60% and a historical percentile of 74.3% over 3 years. For soda ash, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 19.07% and a historical percentile of 13.9% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory, short FG2601 futures at 1400 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Glass Purchase Management**: For low glass purchase inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash product inventory, short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Purchase Management**: For low soda ash purchase inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Glass and Soda Ash Market Data Glass - On September 19, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1343, 1405, and 1216 respectively, with daily increases of 1.13%, 1.3%, and 0.66% [4] - The spot prices of glass in most regions remained stable on September 19, 2025, with only slight declines in some brands in the Shahe area [5] Soda Ash - On September 19, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1407, 1454, and 1318 respectively, with daily increases of 0.5%, 0.83%, and 0.92% [6] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged on September 18, 2025, except for a 12 - unit increase in the Shahe heavy - soda price [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, as well as the production and sales situation of glass [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of 5mm glass plates from different manufacturers showed various trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1144 to 1155, and that from Wuhan Changli increased from 1060 to 1100 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG05 contract price decreased by 14 from 1342 to 1328 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and FG01 contract price decreased by 26 from 1234 to 1208 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 4.1 to 241.2 on September 18th compared to September 17th, while the profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 188.1 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe factories had fair production and sales, but Shahe traders had poor sales at low prices. Hubei factories raised prices and had good transactions, while the middle - stream in Hubei had poor sales [1]. - **Production and Sales Rates**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 108, Hubei's was 95, East China's was 101, and South China's was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of heavy and light soda ash from different regions also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 20 from 1230 to 1210 on September 18th compared to September 17th [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased by 18 from 1418 to 1400 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and SA01 contract price decreased by 28 from 1334 to 1306 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 33.8 to - 144.6 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 33.1 to - 119.0 [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventories decreased significantly, while delivery warehouse inventories increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [1].