Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views Plastic - In the transition phase between the off - season and peak season, the plastic 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The recommended range for attention is 7200 - 7500, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Sino - US talks, domestic policies, and crude oil price fluctuations [5]. PP - The PP futures face significant upward pressure. In the short term, the PP2509 contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended range for attention is 6900 - 7200, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for plastic [7]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7351 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average price of LDPE was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a 1.05% week - on - week increase; HDPE was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7525.29 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.29 yuan/ton, a 5.94% decrease, and the 6 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton (down 48) [5][9]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.29 per barrel, down $1.06 from the previous week; Brent crude was at $66.13 per barrel, down $0.19. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (up 20) [5][19]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 164 yuan/ton, up 188 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PE was 930 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will strengthen and that of coal - based PE will weaken [24]. - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.20%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase. The maintenance loss was 7.22 tons, down 0.65 tons [27]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.82%, up 0.75%; PE packaging film was 49.07%, down 0.23%; and PE pipes was 30.00%, up 1.00% [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.86 tons, down 0.71 tons from the previous week, a 1.23% decrease [5][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 7345 lots, up 1523 lots from the previous week [41]. PP Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7084 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7246.67 yuan/ton (unchanged). The PP basis was 163 yuan/ton (down 22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan/ton (down 2) [7][45]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: Similar to plastic, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [5][58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 149.67 yuan/ton, up 193.84 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PP was 439.56 yuan/ton, down 79.73 yuan/ton [7][62]. - **Supply**: China's PP petrochemical enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.91%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase; PP powder was 7.00 tons, a 3.41% increase [7][67]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate was 49.35% (up 0.30%). The operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes were 41.40% (up 0.30%), 61.30% (up 0.33%), 56.73% (unchanged), and 36.30% (up 0.07%) respectively [7][74]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - $525.85 per ton, down $5.42 from the previous week; the export profit was - $12.76 per ton, down $3.02. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [78]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.75 tons (+0.07%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.60% week - on - week; the trader inventory decreased by 4.06%; and the port inventory decreased by 0.98%. The finished - product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises was 913.87 tons, a 2.70% decrease, and the BOPP raw - material inventory was 8.96 days, a 0.11% increase [80][82]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On August 5, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 12860 lots, up 320 lots from the previous week [86].

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors involve overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4975 - 5045 [8][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure decreased this week, and the expected production is likely to increase next week as the expected maintenance decreases. The downstream overall and most sub - sectors'开工率 is lower than the historical average, with the current demand potentially remaining sluggish. The cost side shows that the losses of calcium carbide and ethylene methods are decreasing, but the profit is still lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling. The fundamentals are considered neutral [6][8] - **Basis**: On July 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 80 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, with the calcium carbide factory inventory down 1.61% and the ethylene factory inventory up 0.22%. The social inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month, and the production enterprise's in - stock inventory days decreased by 0.32%. The inventory situation is considered neutral [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as the operating rates of downstream industries [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18] - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the trends of MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, and MA120, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [26][29][31][34] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profits, daily and weekly production volumes, and maintenance losses of PVC [40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment - related indicators [44][45][49][54][55][57] - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide and ethylene factory warehouses, social inventory, and the inventory days of production enterprises [60] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method of PVC production [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory and social inventories, demand, and export from May 2024 to June 2025 [64][65]