分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 光伏煤炭行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-03 《市场分析：电网酿酒行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-02-02 《市场分析：农业通信行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-01-30 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（02 月 04 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4087 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度上行，盘中煤炭、光伏设备、航空机场以及玻璃玻纤 等行业表现较好；贵金属、游戏、文化传媒以及互联网服务等行业 表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市 场周三震荡整理，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ ...

Group 1 - The aviation and airport sector experienced a significant increase of 5.9% on February 4, with Huaxia Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed notable price increases, with Huaxia Airlines rising by 10.02% to a closing price of 11.53, and China Eastern Airlines increasing by 9.98% to 6.28 [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the aviation and airport sector was 796 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 396 million yuan [1] - Major stocks like Hainan Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had varying levels of net fund inflow and outflow, with Hainan Airlines seeing a net inflow of 336 million yuan from main funds [2] - Retail investors showed a negative trend, with significant outflows from stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, indicating a cautious sentiment among smaller investors [2]

A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%报4102点，深证成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创50指数跌1.2%。全市场成交额2.5万亿元，较前 一交易日缩量624亿元，超3200股上涨。 | 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | 5日涨幅* | | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | 航空 | 软饮料 | | +8.00% | +4.04% | +3.599 | | 建材 | 房地产 | 海运 | | +3.25% | +3.03% | +2.679 | 盘面上，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升，煤炭、煤化工板块大爆发，大有能源、山西焦煤及中煤能源等十余股涨停；马斯克团队秘访中国光伏企业，光伏设备 板块走高，晶科能源、中来股份等多股20CM涨停；航空机场板块拉升，华夏航空、中国东航涨停；玻璃玻纤、HIT电池、房地产开发及装修建材等板块涨 幅居前。另外，腾讯云板块下挫，泛微网络（维权）跌停；贵金属板块走低，四川黄金跌近9%；AI应用端普跌，智谱AI、Sora概念领跌，引力传媒跌停； 文化传媒、游戏及算力概念等跌幅居前。(格隆汇) | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | -- ...

Industry Dynamics Tracking - The overall container shipping rates have decreased, with the SCFI composite index dropping by 9.7% to 1317 points. Specific routes such as Shanghai-Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean saw declines of 11.1% and 12.0% respectively [3][4] - The refined oil tanker rates have increased, with the BCTI index rising by 4.6% to 890 points. The MR rates in the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed mixed results, with a notable increase of 12.7% in the Atlantic [8] - The logistics sector is witnessing a resilient demand, with the e-commerce express delivery industry expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy and a reduction in costs, leading to improved profitability for companies like SF Express and JD Logistics [12] Air Transport - The civil aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce their losses significantly [3] - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on transportation services among others, which is expected to support the aviation sector [3] Shipping and Port Operations - The dry bulk shipping market is experiencing a "strong off-season" due to a combination of high demand in the Atlantic region and tight capacity, with the BDI index rising by 12.0% to 1949 points [8] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence and Iran conducting live-fire exercises, which could impact oil shipping routes [6] - China's port cargo throughput has decreased, with a reported decline of 1.70% in total cargo and a 4.35% drop in container throughput [9] Road and Rail Transport - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volumes reported at 7441.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.35% [10] - Shenzhen International reported a 3.3% increase in toll revenue for December 2025, indicating stable revenue growth in the road transport sector [11] Investment Opportunities - In the express delivery sector, companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express are expected to benefit from market share growth and operational improvements, while SF Express is noted for its cost control and shareholder returns [12] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to continue its recovery, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Haitong Development highlighted as potential beneficiaries [13]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery business volume in China is expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year by 2025, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [1] - During the week of January 5-11, the total collection volume of postal express reached approximately 4.107 billion pieces, a week-on-week increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [1] - The total delivery volume for the same week was about 4.16 billion pieces, with a week-on-week increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [1] - By 2025, the express delivery revenue is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - The report recommends investing in SF Holding due to valuation, operational resilience, and improved shareholder returns, while also being optimistic about Zhongtong Express due to market share growth [1] Group 2: Logistics Industry - The chemical product price index (CCPI) in China is currently at 4024 points, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% but a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [2] - The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 169 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.98% [2] - Shanghai has introduced favorable policies for intelligent driving, aiming to expand the application of L3-level autonomous vehicles and enhance smart logistics [2] - The report recommends Hai Chen Co. due to improved demand in its main business [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The average daily number of flights in China has decreased by 5.66% year-on-year, with domestic flights down by 6.18% [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.25% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.76% [3] - The report suggests that supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream suppliers will slow supply growth, leading to improved ticket prices and airline profit elasticity, recommending China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [3] Group 4: Shipping Industry - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1209.85 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% [4] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 18.5% month-on-month and 60.2% year-on-year [4] - The dry bulk freight index (BDI) is at 1586.4 points, showing a month-on-month decrease of 10.5% but a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [4] - The report indicates that the total number of trucks on highways decreased year-on-year by 2.02% [4]

Group 1 - The aviation and airport sector increased by 2.35% on February 3, with Southern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance, with Southern Airlines closing at 7.65, up 5.37%, and China Eastern Airlines at 5.71, up 4.20% [1] Group 2 - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 43.44 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 106 million yuan [3] - Notable inflows from speculative funds were recorded at 149 million yuan [3] - The stock performance of major companies included China Eastern Airlines with a net inflow of 69.47 million yuan from institutional investors [4] Group 3 - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and experienced a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7] - The Tourism ETF (product code: 562510) tracked the CSI Tourism Theme Index and saw a decline of 2.92%, with a net subscription of 8.91 million yuan [7]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The overall container shipping rates have decreased, with the SCFI composite index dropping by 9.7% to 1317 points, and specific routes such as Shanghai-Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean seeing declines of 11.1% and 12.0% respectively [1][8] - The refined oil tanker rates have increased, with the BCTI index rising by 4.6% to 890 points, while the MR rates for the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed mixed results [1][9] - The dry bulk market has shown strength during the traditional off-season, with the BDI index increasing by 12.0% to 1949 points, driven by a mismatch in supply and demand [1][8] Group 2: Express Logistics - YTO Express held a conference emphasizing the importance of building a resilient supply chain and adhering to national postal policies [2] - The State Post Bureau has prioritized the governance of illegal charges in rural express delivery as part of its 2026 initiatives [3] - Macro trends indicate a resilient demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while others like China Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce losses significantly [4] - The State Council has issued a plan to enhance service consumption, which includes transportation services, aiming to stimulate economic growth [4] - Spring Festival travel demand is strong, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [5][6] Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence, which could impact oil shipping routes [7] - The Atlantic freight market is experiencing a surge, with dry bulk rates showing unexpected strength due to concentrated cargo volumes and tight capacity [8] - China's port cargo throughput has decreased, with a reported decline of 1.70% in total cargo and a 4.35% drop in container throughput [10] Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volumes showing a slight decline of 3.35% [11] - Shenzhen International reported a 3.3% increase in toll revenue for December 2025, indicating stable growth in road transport [12] - Zhongyuan Express plans to recognize credit impairment and asset impairment provisions totaling 950 million, forecasting a 30% decline in annual net profit [12]

Group 1: Transportation Industry - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend driving up prices and releasing profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable long-term competitive environment for e-commerce logistics [17] - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while others like China Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce losses, setting a solid foundation for 2026 [8][9] - The shipping market is witnessing a "strong off-season" for dry bulk freight rates due to a combination of concentrated cargo volumes and tight capacity, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showing a notable increase [13][14] Group 2: Energy Storage Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which is expected to enhance the energy storage sector's growth [21] - By the end of 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity for energy storage is projected to reach 213.3 GW, a 54% year-on-year increase, with new energy storage technologies, particularly lithium-ion batteries, experiencing rapid growth [21] - A total of 13 core companies in the energy storage industry have been identified, including Changhong Energy and Haixi Communications, which are positioned to benefit from the expanding market [21] Group 3: Media and Internet Industry - Google's Project Genie has launched, allowing users to create and edit interactive 3D environments, indicating a significant advancement in AI applications within the media sector [25] - The AI gaming creation tool "TapTap Manufacturing" has been introduced, enabling creators to develop games without leaving the chat interface, showcasing the integration of AI in game development [25] - The competition for AI entry points is expected to continue evolving, with major platforms like WeChat and Douyin playing crucial roles in user education and ecosystem integration [25][28] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - Weidong Delicious is recognized as a leading player in the spicy snack sector, capitalizing on the trend of health-conscious consumption and maintaining a strong brand presence [4] - The company has established a robust multi-category product strategy, which is expected to drive growth and sustain high profitability [4] Group 5: Real Estate Industry - China Merchants Shekou is focusing on core cities and leveraging its state-owned enterprise advantages to optimize its asset structure and enhance its competitive position [4] - The company has proactively addressed historical burdens by writing down approximately 22.6 billion yuan in asset and credit impairments since 2020, positioning itself for future growth [4]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 1）圆通速递举行 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会，强调"守底线、强基 石、开新路"。1 月 26 日，圆通速递 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会召开， 圆通速递董事局主席喻渭蛟表示：要打造安全畅通、便捷高效、自主可控、可持续、 有韧性的供应链；要贯彻执行国家邮政局局长赵冲久关于深入推进交通强国邮政篇 建设等 9 个方面的工作，要以"守底线、强基石、开新路"为管理理念和工作指南， 做好各项重点工作。圆通速递总裁潘水苗围绕"守底线、强基石、开新路"对 2026 年重点工作作了具 ...