芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/26 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 6/19 78.9 643 904 5190 7120 64.66 261.0 247 -3 85.1 79.1 37684 270 0.30 2025/0 6/20 77.0 646 898 5275 7165 81.77 252.0 369 -34 86.1 79.1 37020 265 0.40 2025/0 6/23 71.5 642 899 5260 7225 117.80 257.0 350 38 86.1 79.1 36600 275 0.55 2025/0 6/24 67.1 586 859 5100 7225 94.11 273.0 414 214 86.1 79.1 36396 265 0.20 2025/0 6/25 67.7 579 849 5050 7170 83.16 270.0 417 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - For PTA, the near - term TA operation rate continues to rise, polyester operation rate slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic operation rate decreases month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and its structure continue to weaken. In the future, the contradiction in bottle - grade chips may drag down the polyester load, TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting processing fees at high prices [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, the operation rate rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates, downstream stocking levels decline, and basis weakens. The fastest de - stocking stage at ports has passed, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in Iranian imports [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn operation rate declines, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month. It is expected that the processing fee will remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of some raw materials and products decline. The domestic profits of some products change, and attention should be paid to the market dynamics [11]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, crude oil rose by 3.3, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, PTA internal - market spot price rose by 15, while the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 22.10, and PTA processing fee dropped by 88 [2]. - **Device Changes**: The 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the MEG internal - market price rose by 20, and the MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, while the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 76 [7]. - **Device Changes**: The 900,000 - ton device of Satellite was under maintenance, the 400,000 - ton device of Yankuang increased its load, and the 900,000 - ton device of Hengli restarted [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by 20, short - fiber profit increased by 1, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [7]. - **Operation Conditions**: The near - term device operation was stable at an operation rate of 92.1%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of Shanghai 3L rubber rose by 50, and the price of Hainan glue rose by 100 [7]. - **Market Conditions**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [7]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the pure - benzene (East China) price decreased by 85, the styrene (CFR China) price dropped by 15, and EPS domestic profit increased by 115 [11].

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/12 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 68473 215 0.40 67.0 568 808 4830 6850 76.50 240.0 417 102 85.6 81.3 73663 225 0.70 66.9 574 817 4855 6880 83.34 243.0 388 113 85.6 81.3 87345 215 0.55 69.8 572 812 4825 6880 60.09 240.0 383 138 85.6 81.3 87345 220 0.25 变化 2.9 -2 -5 -30 0.00 -23.25 -3.0 -5 25 0.0 0.0 0 5 -0.30 近端TA开工逐步回升，聚酯在瓶片减产下开工进一步下行，库存去化，基差震荡偏强，现货加工费仍有改善；PX海内外 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/28 64.9 563 837 4880 6990 86.78 274.0 298 162 87.3 76.4 56248 180 0.65 2025/0 5/29 64.2 570 852 4950 6980 99.28 282.0 292 96 87.3 76.4 56248 200 0.65 2025/0 5/30 63.9 559 842 4945 6990 90.11 283.0 334 106 85.3 76.4 56044 220 0.35 2025/0 6/03 65.6 562 824 4915 6990 80.56 262.0 409 137 85.3 76.4 55840 200 0.35 2025/0 6/04 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 76.4 55840 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Proximal TA start - up increased, polyester start - up decreased from high levels, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level. PX domestic start - up increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN decreased slightly, the structure remained, isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread increased. In the future, polyester output is expected to decline, and the low processing fee state of bottle chips continues. TA has fully implemented maintenance in the first half of the year and still has production plans, so it has high requirements for further inventory reduction. When the downstream exceeds expectations, the inventory reduction link will gradually shift to PX. Pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the far - month TA processing fee [1] - **MEG**: Proximal domestic oil - based start - up decreased slightly, coal - based maintenance and restart coexisted, start - up decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrivals, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase. Overall, there are unexpected device situations in the near term. With the supply of oil - based products decreasing more than expected and the short - term resilience of the demand side still existing, the reduction of port inventory is expected to be more significant. Pay attention to the staged positive set opportunity [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Proximal Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, start - up decreased to 93.2%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn increased, raw material inventory decreased, and inventory increased month - on - month, with benefits still weakening. Generally, the benefits of staple fiber are low, but the start - up has not decreased significantly. With high self - supply and downstream profit under pressure, the fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly. However, the disk processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level and is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to subsequent production reduction actions [2] - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory decreased slightly, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm for tapping rubber at this price is expected to be okay. The strategy is to wait and see [2] - **Styrene and Derivatives**: The prices of related products such as styrene, EPS, and PS changed, and the domestic profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated. The price of pure benzene and its spread with naphtha also changed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated, PTA spot prices changed between 4860 - 4910, PTA processing fees ranged from 85.54 - 97.22, and PTA load remained at 77.1. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+185) [1] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device restarted [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of MEG in Northeast Asia remained at 780, the port inventory price fluctuated between 521 - 530, and the profit of MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) changed between - 372 - 540. The negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4524 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+150) [2] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton MEG device in Sanjiang reduced its load [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber was around 6515, and the market basis was around 07 - 30 [2] - **Device Situation**: Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, and the start - up decreased to 93.2% [2] Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - latex, Thai cup lump rubber, etc., changed. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14540 to 13800 [2] Styrene and Derivatives - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, EPS, etc. changed. For example, the price of styrene in China decreased from 7825 to 7650, and the price of pure benzene decreased from 8850 to 8750. The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated [2]

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/08 62.8 555 778 4615 6505 93.88 223.0 328 -19 85.8 72.5 97814 115 0.50 2025/0 5/09 63.9 569 785 4715 6580 100.54 216.0 393 -42 86.9 72.5 91568 145 0.65 2025/0 5/12 65.0 590 870 4840 6675 87.60 280.0 324 -87 86.9 72.5 88754 180 1.15 2025/0 5/13 66.6 576 846 4935 6840 87.60 270.0 298 -29 86.9 72.5 85172 200 0.50 2025/0 5/14 66.1 590 870 5095 7000 87.60 280.0 324 -59 86 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/13 P T A 日期 原油 2025/0 5/06 2025/0 5/07 2025/0 5/08 | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | 790 | 685 | 5555 | 5300 | 870 | | 7130 | 7315 | 8375 | | 2025/05/07 | 790 | 700 | 5650 | 5300 | 880 | | 7240 | 7415 | 8350 | | 2025/05/08 | 785 | 693 | 5600 | 5330 | 865 | | 7140 | 7315 | 8350 | | 2025/05/09 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5350 | 865 | | 7135 | 7340 | 8350 | | 2025/05/12 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5550 | 865 | | 73 ...

| 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/09 | P T A | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. PTA processing fees have fully recovered, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking PTA processing fees at high prices in the long - term [2]. - For MEG, the marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to hidden inventories. The far - month supply - demand mainly focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - based production benefits under the influence of subsequent tariffs [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the future, but the futures processing fee is not high, and the price is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the relatively low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the state of stockpiling. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.9, the price of PTA internal - market spot remained unchanged, the PTA processing difference decreased by 58, and the polyester gross profit increased by 73 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Taihua's 1.2 million - ton device was restarted [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: PX and PTA are expected to continue de - stocking in May, but the far - month supply - demand will weaken as polyester reduces its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 26, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 26 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited, and the far - month supply - demand depends on tariff - related factors [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: The daily change on May 6 showed that the short - fiber profit increased by 48, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - **Device Maintenance**: No device maintenance information was provided this week [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: There is still pressure for inventory accumulation, but the futures processing fee is not high, and it is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 30, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 240 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The main contradictions are the low explicit inventory, the rebound of cup - lump rubber price, and the stockpiling situation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by $56, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 265, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 175 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 79, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 55 [6].

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/06 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 4/24 66.6 582 744 4350 6280 94.19 162.0 225 -3 86.0 77.7 122028 15 0.60 2025/0 4/25 66.9 582 752 4415 6265 91.59 170.0 247 -63 86.2 78.9 111956 20 0.75 2025/0 4/28 65.9 578 758 4585 6395 95.25 180.0 383 -86 86.2 77.7 109868 80 0.60 2025/0 4/29 64.3 572 756 4540 6420 101.35 184.0 358 -24 86.2 77.7 105532 90 0.35 2025/0 4/30 60.2 546 737 4555 6420 101.08 191.0 358 -37 86 ...