Core Insights - In the first ten months, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][2] - In October, profits decreased by 5.5% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs [2] - The traditional industries are showing initial signs of improved productivity, with profits significantly above the industry average [3] Summary by Categories Profit Performance - From January to October, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] - In October alone, profits fell by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and increased financial expenses [2] - Cumulative profit growth has been positive since August, with mining profits down by 27.8%, manufacturing up by 7.7%, and utilities up by 9.5% [2] Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries have shown significant profit growth, with specific sectors like graphite and carbon products, biochemical pesticides, and cultural chemical products seeing profits rise by 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively, all exceeding their industry averages [3] - In the chemical fiber, rubber, and plastic sectors, profits in bio-based chemical fiber and recycled rubber manufacturing grew by 61.2% and 15.4%, respectively, also surpassing industry averages [3] Structural Optimization - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have maintained rapid growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0%, outpacing the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points [4] - Notable growth was observed in the smart unmanned aerial vehicle and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing sectors, with profits increasing by 116.1% and 114.9%, respectively [4]

前10个月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，连增三个月。 11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。10月当月受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费 用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。值得一提的是，国家统计局表示，前10个月累计，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明 显高于行业平均水平。 上年同期基数有所抬高等拖累利润表现 10月当月，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁分析，受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。 不过，8月份以来，工业企业利润累计增速连续三个月保持增长。从三大门类看，1—10月份，采矿业下降27.8%，降幅较1—9月份收窄1.5个百分点；制造业增长 7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.5%。 于卫宁表示，1—10月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长1.8%，营业收入持续保持增长，为工业企业盈利恢复创造有利条件。此外，营业收入利润率为 5.25%，同比提高0.01个百分点。 传统产业提质升级成效显现 据介绍，1—10月份， ...

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - Profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 is 1.9%, down from 3.2% in the previous period[1] - The main reasons for the narrowing profit growth are the weakening low base effect and declining production[1] - Industrial production in October 2025 decreased by 4.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price and Profit Margin Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight improvement in October 2025, increasing by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.1% in the previous month[1] - Profit margins slightly decreased to 5.25% from 5.26% in the previous month[1] - Mining industry profit margins improved slightly, while manufacturing and utility sectors saw a decline compared to September[1] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Weak demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.82% in October 2025[1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.3% in October 2025, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Implications - Future profit trends are expected to stabilize after short-term fluctuations, supported by domestic demand expansion policies[2] - External demand and geopolitical risks will also influence future profit trajectories[2] - Equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors remain the main drivers of profit growth[1]

2025年1—10月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）408914亿元，同比下降1.7%（按可比口径计算）。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降4.5%。从环比看， 10月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降1.62%。 分产业看，第一产业投资8075亿元，同比增长2.9%；第二产业投资148411亿元，增长4.8%；第三产业投资252429亿元，下降5.3%。 第二产业中，工业投资同比增长4.9%。其中，采矿业投资增长3.8%，制造业投资增长2.7%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长12.5%。 第三产业中，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比下降0.1%。其中，管道运输业投资增长13.8%，水上运输业投资增长9.4%，铁 路运输业投资增长3.0%。 分地区看，东部地区投资同比下降5.4%，中部地区投资下降0.5%，西部地区投资增长0.4%，东北地区投资下降11.7%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资同比下降1.7%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降1.8%，外商企业固定资产投资下降12.1%。 | 指 标 | 同比增长(%) | | --- | --- | | 固定资产投资(不含农户) | ...

从"量"、"价"角度看，1-10 月工业生产活动维持活跃，但价格端表 现仍较弱势。一方面，1-10 月工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，增速较前三季 度微幅下滑 0.1 个百分点，生产端仍能对当期工业企业盈利形成支撑。 另一方面，1-10 月 PPI、生产资料 PPI 同比增速仍为负，分别下降 2.7% 和 3.2%，但降幅均较 9 月微幅收窄 0.1 个百分点，工业品出厂价格表现 仍对工业企业盈利有所掣肘。 原材料价格仍是当前工业企业盈利能力的主要拖累。1-10 月生产资料 PPI 同比降幅仍较明显。在此前深度报告《我们如何理解国内"低通 胀"？》中，我们指出，国内工业品价格弱势受到国际大宗商品价格震 荡、国内地产投资不振等因素的共同影响，从 10 月的状况看： 首先，10 月煤炭开采和洗选业的进口价格指数（环比）为 73.7，低于 100 的上月基线水平，环比延续负增长，煤炭进口价格持续不振，1-10 月煤炭开采及洗选业对工业企业利润总额同比增速的负贡献为 4.2 个百 分点。 其次，地产投资仍对我国固定资产投资表现有所拖累，1-10 月累计同比 下降 14.7%，拖累当期固投增速 3.0 个百分点，仍是需求 ...

1—10月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入113.37万亿元，同比增长1.8%；发生营业成本97.00万亿 元，增长2.0%；营业收入利润率为5.25%，同比提高0.01个百分点。 10月末，规模以上工业企业资产总计187.23万亿元，同比增长4.7%；负债合计108.59万亿元，增长 5.0%；所有者权益合计78.64万亿元，增长4.3%；资产负债率为58.0%，同比上升0.2个百分点。 1—10月份，采矿业实现利润总额7123.3亿元，同比下降27.8%；制造业实现利润总额45050.3亿元，增 长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额7329.3亿元，增长9.5%。 1—10月份，主要行业利润情况如下：有色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长14.0%，电力、热力生 产和供应业增长13.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长12.8%，农副食品加工业增长8.5%， 电气机械和器材制造业增长7.0%，通用设备制造业增长6.2%，专用设备制造业增长5.0%，汽车制造业 增长4.4%，非金属矿物制品业增长1.0%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业同比由亏转盈，石油、煤炭及其 他燃料加工业同比减亏，化学 ...

11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同 比增长1.9%。10月当月受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润 同比下降5.5%。 值得一提的是，国家统计局表示，前10个月累计，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业 平均水平。 上年同期基数有所抬高等拖累利润表现 于卫宁表示，这体现了传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现。 工业企业效益结构持续优化 前10个月，装备制造业和高技术制造业保持较快增长。 于卫宁介绍，1—10月份，规模以上装备制造业利润同比增长7.8%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个 百分点；实现利润总额占全部规模以上工业企业利润总额比重达38.5%，较上年同期提高2.0个百分点，工业企 业效益结构持续优化。 10月当月，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁分析，受上年同期基 数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。 不过，8月份以来，工业企业利润累计增速连续三个月保持增长。从三大门类看，1—10月份，采矿业下降 27.8%，降幅较1—9月份收窄1 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to achieve its annual growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, where the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's level [1][11][24] - However, the economic growth rate slowed in the third quarter to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, primarily due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, reduced policy intensity, and ongoing weakness in the real estate sector [1][11][24] - The report highlights a divergence between domestic and external demand, as well as between supply and demand, with manufacturing investment experiencing rare negative growth due to external uncertainties and "anti-involution" policies [1][11][24] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, the actual GDP growth was 5.2%, with the third quarter showing a slowdown to 4.8%, reflecting a "high first, low second" trend [1][11][24] - The manufacturing sector faced negative growth for the first time since Q3 2020, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and a decline in real estate demand [1][11][24] - Service consumption and emerging export categories demonstrated resilience, becoming significant supports for economic growth [1][11][24] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, with a significant drop to -6.2% in Q3, driven by weak real estate sales and reduced local government spending on infrastructure [1][11][15] - The report anticipates a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in Q4, supported by new policy measures and a more favorable external environment [1][11][15] - Real estate investment remains a major drag on fixed asset investment, with a decline from -12.1% in Q2 to -19.2% in Q3 [1][11][15] Consumption Insights - Social retail sales growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a further decline to 3.5% [1][11][14] - Service consumption maintained strong resilience, with service retail sales growing by 5.2%, outperforming goods retail growth [1][11][14] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8%, with non-physical goods online retail sales surging by 26.7% [1][11][14] Export Performance - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth rising to 6.5% [1][11][16] - The growth was bolstered by a 12.6% increase in exports to non-US markets, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the US [1][11][16] - High-end manufacturing and green product exports showed significant growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 31.4% and electric passenger vehicle exports increasing by 51.2% [1][11][16] Policy Focus - The report emphasizes a shift in policy focus towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on innovation and domestic demand [1][11][6] - Recent macroeconomic policies have aimed to stabilize domestic demand, with significant financial tools and local debt issuance to support project construction and debt repayment [1][11][6] - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the direction for the next five years, focusing on building a modern industrial system and enhancing innovation efficiency [1][11][6]

于卫宁表示，今年各地区各部门着力做强国内大循环，积极畅通国内国际双循环，带动工业企业利润稳 定增长，工业经济高质量发展稳步推进。 在经历了两个月的高速增长之后，10月份规上工业利润增速出现回落。 国家统计局11月27日发布的数据显示，1-10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，自今年8月份 以来累计增速连续三个月保持增长。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，10月份，受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因 素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。 而此前的8月和9月，规模以上工业企业利润分别同比大幅增长20.4%和21.6%。 基数因素是导致工业利润增速波动的重要原因。2024年8月到10月，规模以上工业企业利润分别下降 17.8%、27.1%、10.0%。 于卫宁表示，下阶段，在国际环境复杂严峻，国内周期性结构性矛盾交织的背景下，要推动各项政策协 同发力，进一步扩内需、优结构、育新能，推动工业经济量质齐升、动能焕新，不断筑牢实体经济根 基。 关于下阶段工业利润走势，国泰海通证券宏观研报认为，要实现利润的持续改善，需在延续供给端结构 优化的同时，通过扩内需政策打通上下游价差传导堵点，关 ...

Core Insights - In October, the profit growth of industrial enterprises at or above designated size declined due to high base effects from the previous year and rising financial costs, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [1][3] - From January to October, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9%, maintaining growth for three consecutive months since August [1][3] - The mining sector saw a profit decline of 27.8%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 7.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.5% [3][4] Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points [4] - Specific sectors within high-tech manufacturing, such as smart electronic manufacturing and semiconductor manufacturing, reported significant profit growth, with increases of 116.1% and 89.2% respectively [4] - Traditional industries are also seeing improvements, with certain sectors like chemical and building materials showing profit growth significantly above the industry average, such as graphite and carbon products at 77.7% [5] Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is addressing issues of price competition in various industries to maintain a stable market environment, which is expected to support high-quality development [6] - Analysts suggest that for sustained profit improvement, policies to expand domestic demand and optimize supply structures are crucial, along with monitoring the balance between inventory replenishment and end-user demand [5][6]