1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year turned positive, and the enterprise profitability continued to improve. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve, and the stock - bond allocation will continue to switch with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Profit - Industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year turned positive, and the monthly year - on - year increased significantly to 20.4%. From January to August, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, up 2.6 pct from January to July; in August, it increased by 20.4% year - on - year, up 21.9 pct from July [4] - Analyzing from volume, price, and profit margin, from January to August, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.2% year - on - year, down 0.1 pct from January to July; the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, the same as January to July; the profit margin of large - scale industrial revenue decreased by 1.87 percentage points year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 2.76 pct compared with January to July [4] Structure By category - From January to August, the total profit of the mining industry decreased by 30.6% year - on - year, the manufacturing profit increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the public utility profit increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The decline in mining profit narrowed by 1.0 pct, and the increase in public utility profit expanded due to the increase in water and electricity consumption caused by the large - scale high - temperature weather in August [4] - From January to August, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 2.6 pct compared with January to July. Among them, the profit of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 7.2%, driving the profit of all large - scale industrial enterprises up by 2.5 pct, which significantly supported the profit recovery of large - scale industrial enterprises [4] By enterprise nature - From January to August, the profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, that of joint - stock enterprises increased by 1.1% year - on - year, that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The profit growth of private enterprises was 2.4 pct higher than the average level of all large - scale industrial enterprises, and 1.5 pct faster than January to July [5] - From January to August, the profit of large - scale industrial medium - sized enterprises increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and that of small enterprises increased by 1.5% year - on - year. The efficiency of small and medium - sized enterprises improved significantly [5] By industrial chain position - From January to August, the proportion of the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining in the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 12.1%, that of mid - stream material manufacturing was 15.6%, that of downstream equipment manufacturing was 37.5%, that of downstream consumer goods manufacturing was 21.3%, that of other manufacturing was 0.6%, and that of public utilities was 12.9% [5] Inventory and Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.1% and 5.0% respectively, down 0.3 pct and 1.0 pct respectively, and the decline in real inventory year - on - year accelerated; at the end of August, the overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 58.0%, up 0.1 pct month - on - month [6] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise; the stock - bond allocation will continue to switch, and bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [6][7]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 8 月工业企业利润数据：利润增速回升 8 月，根据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业利润同比由上月下降 1.5% 转为增长 20.4% 。若考虑基数影 响，今年和去年两年合计的增速，则 2025 年 8 月利润相比 2023 年 8 月同比为 -1.4% ，前值为 3.0% 。 库存方面，截止至今年 8 月，库存同比 2.3% ，前值为 2.4% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看 ， 量弱价升，收入增速小幅改善。 PPI 同比， 8 月同比为 -2.9% ， 7 月为 -3.6% 。工业增加值 8 月增速为 5.2% ， 7 月为 5.7% ；收入端 8 月增速为 2.3% ， 7 月为 1.13% 。利 润率方面， 8 月为 5.8% ，去年同期（可比口径）为 4.97% 。 利润率拆分来看（改善主要来自其他损益 收入和毛利率）， 8 月毛利率为 14.38% ，去年同期为 14.2% ；费用率 8.30% ，去年同期为 8.41% ；其 他损益收入比为 0.25% ，去 ...

9月27日，国家统计局公布1~8月份全国规模以上工业企业（以下简称规上工企）利润数据。 存货方面，杨畅指出，8月末产成品存货6.73万亿元（前值6.67万亿元），绝对值继续增加，同比增长 2.3%（前值增长2.4%），增速回落0.1个百分点。 装备制造支撑作用明显 1~8月份，制造业利润总额增长7.4%，较1~7月份加快2.6个百分点。分行业看，1~8月份，规模以上装备 制造业利润增长7.2%，拉动全部规上工企利润增长2.5个百分点，是拉动作用最强的板块之一，对规上 工企利润恢复支撑作用明显。 中泰证券（600918）研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅在接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时表示，这或 受两方面因素影响。一方面，8月单月利润约6726.2亿元，是二季度以来次高点，相较7月环比增加；另 一方面，上年同期基数明显走低，根据国家统计局公布的上年累计值计算，上年8月单月利润约5535.6 亿元，是去年年内最低点。考虑到上年9月开始基数逐步回升，可能会对后续同比增速形成压制。 从营收上看，8月份，营业收入增长加快。1~8月份，规上工企营业收入同比增长2.3%，与1~7月份持 平。其中，8月份营业收入增长1.9%，较 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 两类行业利润改善——8 月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 ❖ 8 月工业企业利润数据：利润增速回升 8 月，根据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业利润同比由上月下降 1.5%转为增 长 20.4%。若考虑基数影响，今年和去年两年合计的增速，则 2025 年 8 月利 润相比 2023 年 8 月同比为-1.4%，前值为 3.0%。库存方面，截止至今年 8 月， 库存同比 2.3%，前值为 2.4%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量弱价升，收入增速小幅改善。PPI 同比，8 月同 比为-2.9%，7 月为-3.6%。工业增加值 8 月增速为 5.2%，7 月为 5.7%；收入端 8 月增速为 2.3%，7 月为 1.13%。利润率方面，8 月为 5.8%，去年同期（可比 口径）为 4.97%。利润率拆分来看（改善主要来自其他损益收入和毛利率）， 8 月毛利率为 14.38%，去年同期为 14.2%；费用率 8.30%，去年同期为 8.41%； 其他损益收入比为 0.25%，去年同期为 0.83%。从行业情况看，8 月，采矿业 增速为-23%，前值为-39.24%；制造业增速为 ...

工业增加值：2025年8月，中国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，较7月放缓0.5个百分点，累计 增长6.2%，较7月放缓0.1个百分点。这一增速主要受夏季高温加剧供应链中断、出口订单季节性波动及 房地产投资持续低迷拖累，但较7月放缓幅度收窄，显示政策传导效应渐显。制造业和高技术产业表现 更稳，凸显中国工业向高质量转型的韧性。然而，全球需求不确定性和极端天气对后续增长构成更大制 约。 （原标题：未名宏观｜2025年8月经济数据点评：重"质"稳"量"，经济阶段性回调） 要点： 内容提要 "稳中求进"总基调不变，政策调整信号释放，重"质"稳"量"，经济下行压力阶段性增加。"反内卷"或成 为影响下半年经济走势的主要因素，短期内经济下行压力存在，但长期利好高质量发展。8月，无论是 供给端还是需求端均有不同程度的回调，货币供应稳健扩张，狭义货币M1同比有所上升，反映出企业 活期存款增长加速，经济活跃度有所提升。 供给端 需求端 消费方面：2025年8月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，较前月下降0.3个百分点，政策调整，消费 额增速阶段性回调。居民收入增速依然相对不高，消费额增速难以长期可持续大幅上涨。8月全 ...

1 — 8 月份，采矿业实现利润总额 5661.1 亿元，同比下降 30.6% ；制造业实现利润 总额 35233.5 亿元，增长 7.4% ；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 6035.1 亿元，增长 9.4% 。 1 — 8 月份，主要行业利润情况如下：电力、热力生产和供应业利润同比增长 13.0% ， 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长 12.7% ，农副食品加工业增长 11.8% ，电气机械和器材制 造业增长 11.5% ，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 7.2% ，专用设备制造业增长 6.9% ，通用设备制造业增长 5.8% ，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比减亏，黑色金属冶炼 和压延加工业同比由亏转盈，汽车制造业下降 0.3% ，非金属矿物制品业下降 2.2% ，化学 原料和化学制品制造业下降 5.5% ，纺织业下降 7.0% ，石油和天然气开采业下降 12.4% ，煤炭开采和洗选业下降 53.6% 。 1 — 8 月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入 89.62 万亿元，同比增长 2.3% ；发生营 业成本 76.70 万亿元，增长 2.5% ；营业收入利润率为 5.24% ，同比下降 0 ...

1 — 8 月份规模以上工业企业利润 同比实现增长 ——国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁 解读 2025 年 1 — 8 月份工业企业利润数据 1 — 8 月份，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年同期低基数等 多重因素作用下，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 0.9% ，装备制造业支撑有力，不同规模 企业利润均有所改善。 工业企业利润明显改善。 1 — 8 月份，规模以上工业企业利润由 1 — 7 月份同比下降 1.7% 转为增长 0.9% ，扭转了自今年 5 月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。从三大门类 看， 1 — 8 月份，制造业增长 7.4% ，较 1 — 7 月份加快 2.6 个百分点；电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应业增长 9.4% ，加快 5.5 个百分点；采矿业下降 30.6% ，降幅收窄 1.0 个百分点。从月度看， 8 月份规模以上工业企业利润两位数增长，由 7 月份下降 1.5% 转为 增长 20.4% ，工业企业当月利润改善明显。 不同规模企业利润均有改善，私营企业利润明显加快。 1 — 8 月份，分规模看，规模以 上工业中型、小型企业利润同比分别增长 2.7% 、 1. ...

Core Insights - In the first eight months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1][2][8] Group 1: Profit by Ownership Type - State-owned enterprises reported a total profit of 15,156.5 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1][6] - Joint-stock enterprises achieved a profit of 34,931.9 billion yuan, up 1.1% [1][6] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises made a profit of 11,723.6 billion yuan, increasing by 0.9% [1][6] - Private enterprises saw a profit of 13,076.1 billion yuan, marking a growth of 3.3% [1][6] Group 2: Profit by Industry - The mining industry experienced a profit of 5,661.1 billion yuan, down 30.6% year-on-year [1][8] - The manufacturing sector generated a profit of 35,233.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.4% [1][8] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit of 6,035.1 billion yuan, up 9.4% [1][8] Group 3: Revenue and Costs - Total operating revenue for industrial enterprises above designated size was 89.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2][8] - Operating costs amounted to 76.70 trillion yuan, growing by 2.5% [2][8] - The operating profit margin was 5.24%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Group 4: Financial Indicators - As of the end of August, total assets of industrial enterprises reached 185.08 trillion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [2][3] - Total liabilities were 107.34 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [2][3] - Total equity stood at 77.73 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.4% [2][3] - The asset-liability ratio was 58.0%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Group 5: Accounts Receivable and Inventory - Accounts receivable amounted to 27.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [3] - Finished goods inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 70.1 days, an increase of 3.7 days year-on-year [3]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 32.6111 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5% on a comparable basis [1] - Private fixed asset investment experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry totaled 646.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry reached 11.8246 trillion yuan, growing by 7.6% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry was 20.1404 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.4% [3] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 7.7%, with mining investment up by 3.0%, manufacturing investment up by 5.1%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply up by 18.8% [3] - In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 2.0%, with water transport investment up by 15.9%, water conservancy management investment up by 7.4%, and railway transport investment up by 4.5% [3] Investment by Region - Eastern region investment declined by 3.5% year-on-year, while the central region saw a growth of 2.5%, the western region grew by 2.3%, and the northeastern region experienced a decline of 6.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment grew by 0.5%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises increased by 2.3%. In contrast, foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 15.4% [4]

值得关注的是，工业企业利润明显改善，装备制造业"压舱石"作用明显。1—8月份，规模以上装备制造 业利润增长7.2%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.5个百分点，是拉动作用最强的板块之一，对 规模以上工业企业利润恢复支撑作用明显。从行业看，装备制造业的8个行业中有7个行业利润实现增 长，其中，铁路船舶航空航天、电气机械行业利润增长较快，增速分别达37.3%、11.5%；专用设备、 电子行业利润分别增长6.9%、7.2%。 此外，受市场需求增加、价格回升、成本有所下降等因素带动，1—8月，原材料制造业利润同比增长 22.1%，较1—7月加快10.0个百分点，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.5个百分点；消费品制造业 利润由1—7月下降2.2%转为增长1.4%。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 国家统计局27日发布的数据显示，1—8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元，同比 增长0.9%。 数据变化的背后，是宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年同期低基数等多重因素作 用，装备制造业支撑有力，不同规模企业利润均有所改善。 "1—8月，规模以上工业企业利润由1—7月同比下降1.7%转为增长 ...