Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View In July 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a steady - advancing development trend, with sustained growth in production and demand, overall stable employment and prices, the cultivation and expansion of new - quality productive forces, and new achievements in high - quality development [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In July, the national above - scale industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. From January to June, the total profit of above - scale industrial enterprises was 34365 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Service - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to July, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.6%. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284238 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 86835 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year [5]. Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.3%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [6]. Import and Export - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39102 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256969 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports increased by 7.3%, and imports decreased by 1.6% [7]. Price - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to July, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. In July, it was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [9].

Economic Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decrease from 4.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% from January to July[1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, down from 2.8% in the previous period, with an annual growth target of 3.2%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points in July, primarily due to weak domestic demand and external pressures[3] - Mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, down 1.1 percentage points, while manufacturing added value increased by 6.2%, down 1.2 percentage points[4] - Export delivery value only grew by 0.8% in July, a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% in July, primarily due to the suspension of the old-for-new consumption policy in some regions[6] - The retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies increased by 20.6%, 28.7%, and 13.8% respectively, but growth rates decreased compared to June[6] - Cumulative retail sales growth from January to July was 4.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to July was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[8] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points, influenced by external environment fluctuations and the implementation of anti-"involution" policies[8] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 12.0% from January to July, with a worsening drop of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period[10] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in August, with potential policy measures anticipated in the fourth quarter to stabilize the economy[12] - The macroeconomic policy may include increased fiscal support, interest rate cuts, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market[12] - The overall economic growth target for the year is around 5.0%, with expectations of a decline in industrial production growth due to weakening export momentum[12]

Economic Overview - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with industrial added value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods reaching 38,780 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [1][2][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.0%, 6.2%, and 3.3% respectively [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was recorded at 49.3, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [3] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with notable growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0, indicating stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6, suggesting positive future expectations [4] Retail Sales - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 38,780 billion yuan in July, marking a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with urban and rural retail sales growing by 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively [5] - Online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2% [6] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [6] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39,102 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [7] - From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256,969 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [7] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, with a slight seasonal increase [8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with core CPI rising by 0.8% [9]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, overall stability in employment and prices, and significant achievements in high-quality development [2][11]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [3]. - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively [3]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises from January to June was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0%, indicating stable business conditions [4]. Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 70,790 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [7]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [7]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - Exports grew by 8.0%, while imports increased by 4.8% [8]. Group 6: Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, with a seasonal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were 48.5 hours [9]. Group 7: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady growth of China's economy in July, driven by robust industrial production, service sector expansion, and increasing consumer demand, despite facing external challenges and domestic issues [3][13]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [4] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.4% and 9.3% respectively, outperforming the overall industrial growth [4] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 34,365 billion yuan from January to June, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [4] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [5][6] - From January to July, the service sector production index increased by 5.9%, and the revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.5% [5][6] Group 3: Market Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [7] - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and physical goods online retail sales grew by 6.3% [7] Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [8] Group 5: Trade and Employment - In July, the total import and export value reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [9] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, with a slight seasonal increase [10][11] Group 6: Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [12] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure [12]

Group 1 - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - From January to July, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Among the three major sectors, mining increased by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% in July [1] Group 2 - In July, 35 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in chemical manufacturing (7.2%), transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%), electrical machinery (10.2%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.2%) [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.4% increase in added value, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, both exceeding the overall industrial growth rate by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The policy for equipment updates has stimulated demand across industries for upgrading equipment, supported by financial assistance and policy incentives [1] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 188 billion yuan of special government bonds for equipment updates have been allocated, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - Analysts predict that industrial production momentum may weaken in the second half of the year due to declining exports and increased domestic consumption and investment efforts [3] - The overall industrial production growth rate is expected to slow down, potentially aligning with or slightly below GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic growth drivers towards the service sector [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [4] - The ministry aims to support major industrial provinces in implementing supportive policies, fostering new growth points, and enhancing industrial transformation to stabilize industrial economic operations [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with mining growing by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [4] - Among the economic types, state-controlled enterprises saw a 5.4% increase, joint-stock enterprises grew by 6.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.8%, and private enterprises grew by 5.0% [4] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value in July. Notable growth was seen in black metal smelting and rolling (8.6%), non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (6.8%), and general equipment manufacturing (8.4%) [2][4] - The automotive manufacturing sector grew by 8.5%, with new energy vehicles increasing by 17.1% [3][4] Product Output - In July, among 623 industrial products, 335 saw a year-on-year increase in output. Steel production reached 12.295 million tons (up 6.4%), while cement production fell to 14.557 million tons (down 5.6%) [3] - The output of ethylene was 3.12 million tons (up 9.1%), and automobile production was 2.51 million units (up 8.4%) [3][4] Sales and Exports - The sales rate for industrial enterprises was 97.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The export delivery value reached 1.2904 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% [3][4]

Group 1 - The national mining industry's capacity utilization rate for the second quarter of 2025 was 72.7%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The cumulative capacity utilization rate for the national mining industry in the first half of 2025 was 73.6%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - A study by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPRRA) indicates that despite billions in foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into Kenya, these investments are not directed towards critical industrial sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and construction, but rather into service sectors like retail, finance, information and communication technology, and hospitality [1] - The report highlights that even when investments do enter industrial sectors, they often take the form of greenfield projects, which require a long time to yield benefits and frequently do not align with local industrial needs [1] - The study found that in the four key sectors analyzed, both foreign direct investment and domestic direct investment (DDI) have statistically insignificant impacts on industrial output, revealing deep structural issues in Kenya's ability to attract and manage capital investments [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of various industries, particularly focusing on industrial enterprises, public utilities, and manufacturing sectors in a low-interest-rate environment. The overall profit share of industrial enterprises is expected to remain above 15% in 2023-2024, with a slight decline to 12.5% in the first half of 2025, still higher than the pre-pandemic average of 5.9% [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profit Recovery in Key Sectors**: Industrial enterprises' profit share has significantly rebounded, with public utilities also seeing an increase to 12.1% as of mid-2023, up from a pre-pandemic average of 6.9% [2]. - **Manufacturing Sector Decline**: Manufacturing profit share has decreased to approximately 75%, with export-oriented industries like computers and electronics maintaining stable profits due to overseas demand recovery [1][2]. - **Mining Sector Volatility**: The mining sector's profits have been affected by fluctuations in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a notable decline in 2023 due to commodity price adjustments and insufficient demand [1][4]. - **Investment Returns**: High capital return rates are observed in public utilities, coal, and petrochemical sectors, while the real estate sector shows lower returns, particularly since 2021 [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Driving Factors for Profit Changes**: Key drivers include price fluctuations, overseas demand, policy support for equipment updates, and consumer recovery in sectors like beverages and metals [4]. - **Sector-Specific Performance**: High-performing sub-sectors include energy metals, coal, oil and gas extraction, aerospace, and electronics, with strong growth potential in smaller segments despite overall weaker performance in some primary categories [6]. - **Impact of PPI on Utilities**: A decrease in mining PPI has alleviated cost pressures for public utilities, leading to a recovery in profit margins, although this trend may reverse due to insufficient end-demand [7]. - **China's Export Dynamics**: China's export share has improved due to pandemic-related shifts, with a temporary recovery in 2023-2024 driven by inventory replenishment in Western manufacturing [8]. - **Outward Expansion of Chinese Enterprises**: The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas has positively impacted profitability, particularly in home appliances, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [9][10]. - **Policy Support for Emerging Industries**: Recent industrial policies emphasize the importance of maintaining industrial security and promoting new industrialization, benefiting sectors like energy metals and biomanufacturing [11]. - **Growth Potential in Service Consumption**: There is significant potential for growth in service consumption, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing domestic demand and expanding service sectors such as health care and home services [12].