2月11日，美国众议院投了一次不同寻常的票。219票赞成，211票反对，共和党占多数的众议院，罕见 地通过了一项决议，公开反对特朗普对加拿大加征关税。6名共和党议员"倒戈"投下赞成票，这在美国 政治中是非常少见的场面。 与此同时，大洋彼岸，中国央行刚刚公布的数据显示，截至2026年1月末，中国黄金储备达到7419万盎 司，这已经是连续第15个月增持黄金。两件事放在一起看，信息量很大。 中国抛美债、增黄金，步步为营握牢主动权 很多人以为，中国抛售美债、增持黄金，只是偶然的市场操作，实则不然——这是中国蓄谋已久的战略 布局，每一步都踩在了美国经济的软肋上，既不盲目激进，也不被动防守，尽显大国谋略。 这些年，美国为了维持霸权地位，疯狂印钞发债，靠举债度日，债务规模一路飙升，美债的信用根基早 已千疮百孔。中国作为美债的主要持有国之一，早就看透了其中的风险，没有被美国的霸权迷魂汤迷 惑，反而一步步有序抛售美债，逐步降低对美元资产的依赖。这一次，中国再次出手抛售美债，直接成 为压垮美债的"最后一根稻草"，让美债价格腰斩，创下17年来的最低纪录。 可能有人会问，中国为啥要这么做？说白了，就是不想被美国"绑架"，不想看着自己 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截至2月13日，恒生指数夜期(2月)收报27703点，跌283点或1.049%，低水330点。 未平仓合约总数为113661张，减少16251张；未平仓合约净数报44586张，增加2476张。 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/12 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | 河 | | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.173 | 4.476 | 3.378 | 2.791 | 3.396 | 3.161 | 0.283 | 3.391 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.232 | 6.145 | 1.797 | - | 4.756 | 4.485 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | ...

【阅读须知】：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解 析，旨在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改 正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解。） 中国对美债的态度，正在从配置变成撤离。 这不是交易，这是战略撤收。 中国持有的美国国债，已经跌到2008年以来最低。这个数字不只是账面变化，它是一个信号，中国在主 动降低对美元信用的暴露。 钱抛出来去哪了？ 答案很直接，去买黄金。黄金价格也在配合剧情，截至2026年2月10日，伦敦金现货突破5040美元/盎 司，国内金店零售价冲到1560元/克，涨得很凶。 中国已经连续14个月增持黄金。 连续性比力度更重要，这意味着不是一时兴起，而是长期配置逻辑变了。 外汇储备的核心不是"赚更多"，而是"活得更久"。当外部信用开始动摇，最先考虑的是抗风险，不是收 益率。黄金在这个阶段就是硬盾牌。 那为什么现在要加速抛。核心在美国债务这颗雷，已经越来越难装作没看见。达利欧前几天的警告把话 说得更狠，他说美国处在债务大周期，逼近秩序崩溃的第六阶段。 达利欧的分期你可以不全认，但他点出的变量很 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak labor market data and changes in monetary policy outlook [1][3] - The labor market data showed a significant drop in job openings, with December's JOLTS vacancies falling to 6.54 million from 6.93 million in November, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The yield curve has steepened following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance influencing short-term rates while long-term rates are affected by liquidity concerns [3] Group 2 - Gold prices increased by 1.6% over the week, recovering from previous declines, but the market is expected to take time to rebuild confidence and structure [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve chair's proposal to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet may delay the issuance of long-term bonds, providing limited support for gold prices [2] - Chinese demand for precious metals is a key driver, but may weaken temporarily due to the upcoming Lunar New Year, potentially reducing volatility in the global precious metals market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities declined, with the 30-year UST down 2 basis points to 4.85%, and the 10-year UST down 3 basis points to 4.2% [3] - The usage of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) fell to $3.11 billion, a decrease of $7.31 billion from the previous week [3] - The net short positions in 2-year and 10-year UST futures increased, indicating a bearish sentiment among non-commercial investors [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 97.6, moving in tandem with gold prices, which suggests an increasing correlation between the two [7] - The total holdings of the dollar index decreased, with non-commercial long positions down by 1,335 contracts to 17,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 4,888 contracts to 17,000 contracts [10] - Offshore dollar liquidity costs have risen, as indicated by the decline in the 3-month Basis Swaps for both the yen and euro [13] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio fell to 2.63, indicating a marginal decline in global demand momentum as copper prices dropped while gold prices rose [16] - The gold-silver ratio increased due to the rise in gold prices and the decline in silver prices, reflecting market dynamics [19] - Gold premiums increased after a price correction, indicating strong domestic buying support [28] Group 6 - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 331,000 ounces to 35.294 million ounces, while silver inventory fell by 1.523 million ounces to 39.0466 million ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.44 tons to 1,079.7 tons, remaining near the lower median of the past decade [39] - COMEX gold total positions fell by 78,769 contracts to 489,000 contracts, with a notable increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [39]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments blaming Chinese traders for the volatility in the global gold market highlight a deeper issue: the U.S. has lost control over gold pricing, while China's significant gold reserves have become a key factor in this shift [1][3][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The global gold price recently experienced extreme fluctuations, with a drop from $5,600, marking the largest decline in nearly a decade, leaving analysts bewildered [3]. - The U.S. has historically dominated gold pricing, but recent events indicate a shift in power towards China, which has been steadily accumulating gold reserves [1][5][12]. Group 2: China's Gold Accumulation - As of January 2026, China's gold reserves reached 2,307.57 tons, equivalent to 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces in January alone [5][6]. - Unlike other countries that may only account for gold purchases, China has physically transported its gold back to the country, ensuring tangible assets are held domestically [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's strategy involves not just accumulating gold but also establishing a global gold storage and delivery network, aiming to create a new pricing benchmark in Shanghai and challenge Western dominance in gold pricing [7][10]. - The growing trend of countries accumulating gold reflects a loss of trust in the U.S. dollar, as nations seek to secure their financial stability against potential U.S. economic instability [9][12]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - The global central banks' gold holdings have surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years, indicating a shift in confidence from the dollar to gold as a stable asset [12]. - The U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has been declining, reaching a low of 56.92% in Q3 2025, suggesting a growing trend of de-dollarization among nations [9][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the U.S. dollar remains a major global currency, its credibility and pricing power are diminishing, with the trend of countries seeking alternatives to the dollar becoming increasingly evident [13][14]. - China's gold reserves serve as a dual insurance policy for financial security and a means to enhance its bargaining power in international markets [11][16].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices surged sharply, with spot gold reaching $5040.88 per ounce, up 1.5%, and spot silver at $81.601 per ounce, up nearly 5% [1][2] - The market anticipates a weak U.S. employment report, which has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, confirmed the expectation of weak employment data, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - A political crisis in the UK has impacted the financial markets, with the resignation of two senior officials from Prime Minister Starmer's office within 24 hours. This has led to a decline in the FTSE 100 index, which fell by 0.26%, and the British pound dropped 0.5% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since January 22 [4][5] - The yield on UK 10-year government bonds has risen, approaching the highest level since November of the previous year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing a decline as the relief rally fades and concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) resurface, with futures for major indices showing a downward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to drop, with futures down 35 points, or 0.1% [1]. - S&P 500 futures have decreased by 0.2%, while contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 are down 0.5% [1]. - The Dow had previously reached a record high of 50,000 for the first time ever, indicating a significant rebound in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market surge was initially driven by dip-buying in technology stocks, which escalated following a positive consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan that exceeded expectations [1]. - This positive sentiment suggests that the economy remains robust, contributing to the earlier market gains [1]. Group 3: International Market Movements - Japan's flagship index has surged to a new high following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in parliamentary elections, indicating strong domestic market performance [1].

新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议 席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年潜在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区 机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关注的重要地缘风险之一。在1月27日的报告《日元日债稳住了 吗？——多极化进程中的日本资产逻辑嬗变》中，我们已就涉日地缘变化对日元、日债市场的影响展开 分析。结合此次日本大选的最新结果，现将相关内容整理如下，供投资者参考： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：王涵论宏观 要点 日元日债稳住了吗？这个问题需要在全球秩序变化的大框架来讨论。年初以来，日本资本市场出现大幅 波动，日元、日债双双走弱，日元避险属性明显弱化。近期，在日本政府的干预与引导下，情绪面虽暂 获安抚，市场呈现企稳迹象。但我们认为，日元与日债此番呈现的结构性变化，其深层次原因不能简单 归因于短期经济波动，而应置于更宏大的叙事框架下理解——正如我们在去年底发布的报告兴证王涵 | 2026年展望：叙事映射！中所指出的，全球秩序正从单极化向多极化深刻演进，这一进程正在系统性地 重塑 ...

尽管全球对美国的好感度持续下滑，但外国投资者正以创纪录的规模涌入美国金融市场。这种"白天批 评美国、晚上疯狂买入"的矛盾现象，正将美国市场推向前所未有的依赖境地——其经常账户赤字如今 几乎完全依靠投机性外资填补。 周一，英国《金融时报》专栏作家Ruchir Sharma在最新文章中表示，去年外国投资者向美国金融资产 注入约1.6万亿美元，其中近7000亿美元流入股市，双双创下历史新高。从新加坡到首尔，投资者熬夜 使用美股盘后交易平台已成常态，外国机构持有的美股占比升至创纪录的15%，较十年前增长一半。 然而数据显示，即便意见恶化，资金仍在以前所未有的速度涌入。除了去年4月短暂的"抛售美国"浪潮 外，外国投资者在2025年每个月都是大买家，像美国散户一样积极"逢低买入"。美国企业债券的外国 购买量也大幅上升。 外国机构目前持有近15%的美国股票，创历史新高，较十年前增长一半。外国投资者持有的美国资产总 额已接近70万亿美元，是十年前的两倍。少数例外是各国央行，它们一直在将资金从美元转向黄金。 2025年唯一的新谨慎迹象是，全球投资者对其空前庞大的美元敞口进行了比前一年更多的对冲。 惯性思维与科技崇拜驱动买盘 投 ...