转自：北京日报客户端 在今天的高科技产品中，智能手机运行流畅、屏幕色彩绚丽，电动车加速迅猛——这些卓越性能的背后，往往离不开一类特殊的材料：稀土。 镧系的 15 个元素从镧到镥，加上性质相近的钪和钇，共同构成了稀土家族。它们具有独特的磁、光、电等物理特性，能够在极小的体积内提供强大的磁力 和复杂的光电转换，成为许多尖端技术中不可替代的功能材料。 就拿新能源汽车来说，其驱动电机需要钕铁硼永磁体，单台车的稀土磁体高达 2 千克。我们来算一下，截至 2025 年 10 月，北京市新能源汽车保有量已达 120 万辆。假设这些车当中只有 2/3 处于高频使用的状态，那也相当于大概 1600 吨稀土磁体，每天在这座城市的道路上来来去去。 内置式永磁同步电机，图片来源：参考文献 [14] 更不用说隐身战机、精确制导武器等国防系统，对稀土材料的性能要求非常严苛。据估算制造一架 F35 战斗机要使用超过 400 千克稀土材料。 这意味着从日常消费电子到国家尖端武器，都离不开稳定的稀土供应。 "稀土"指 15 种镧系元素 + 钪、钇 | Z | 化学符 | 名称 | 应用范围 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

12月7日，日本媒体突然报道，中国近期对稀土出口的审批速度变慢，尤其是针对日本企业的出口申请。这一消息一经披露，立即在日本政商界引发了不小 的反响。特别是最近，中日关系因高市早苗的涉台言论而变得异常紧张。 日本媒体将这两件事联系在一起，认为这可能是中国通过稀土出口放缓来释放信号。那么，这次审批放缓究竟是正常的行政流程，还是背后另有深意呢？日 本为何如此激烈反应，核心原因又在哪里？ 事件的源头是日本《读卖新闻》的一篇报道。该报道指出，一些日本企业近期发现，稀土出口审批明显比以往慢了很多，尤其是中国这一环节出现了明显的 延迟。尽管没有官方说明，也没有明确的出口限制，但审批变慢本身就足以让日本方面产生警觉。很快，有日本政府内部人士表示，他们正在评估这种变化 是否与当前中日关系的紧张局势有关。 这一事件之所以敏感，部分原因在于前不久，中国商务部对日本政客高市早苗在台湾问题上的言论进行了严厉批评，并表示这种言论是错误的，警告可能会 有回应措施。虽然中方并没有明确提到稀土问题，但日本媒体和部分政界人士立刻联想到，这次审批放缓可能就是中方的回应。 在日本政府内部，也有不同的声音。有官员认为，现阶段很难断定这是否是政治操作， ...

Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with significant net inflows from southbound funds and a shift in foreign capital [1][2]. Valuation and Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from early 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow Dynamics - Southbound funds have seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November 2023, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The inflow of ETFs surged to 51.3% from June to October, with August reaching 88%, indicating strong enthusiasm among domestic individual investors [3]. - Institutional investors favor sectors like non-bank themes and precious metals, while individual investors focus on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The AI industry chain in Hong Kong is strengthening, with a positive correlation between the Hang Seng Technology Index and the USD/JPY exchange rate [4]. - For 2026, investment opportunities should focus on sectors with performance certainty and valuation elasticity, particularly technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods [8]. Long-term Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a second round of valuation repair driven by internal and external factors, including the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and easing monetary policies globally [6][5]. - The potential for external capital inflow is expected to increase as the risk premium decreases due to improved Sino-U.S. relations [6]. Specific Sector Insights - The technology sector, especially the AI industry, is expected to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceutical sector is entering a growth phase supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with companies in precious metals and rare earths likely to benefit from rising commodity prices [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery as domestic policies stimulate consumption and improve income expectations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with a significant influx of southbound capital and a shift in foreign investment reshaping the funding landscape [1][2]. Valuation and Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from the post-Lunar New Year of 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth rate for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow and Investment Preferences - Southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The capital structure shows a clear differentiation, with institutional investors favoring themes like non-bank ETFs and personal investors focusing on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. - Foreign capital, while still experiencing outflows, has shown signs of recovery since August, with long-term foreign capital seeing its first phase of inflow since September 2022, particularly favoring the information technology sector [3]. Sector Performance and Outlook - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting sharply with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown volatility but continues to strengthen its core competitiveness, with the sector benefiting from advancements in AI and related technologies [4]. - The long-term trend of recovery in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, driven by policy dividends and external risk dynamics [5][6]. Investment Directions - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in four main sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods, focusing on "earnings certainty + valuation elasticity" [8][9]. - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is anticipated to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceuticals sector is entering a phase of certain growth, supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource products sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with expectations of rising commodity prices benefiting related stocks [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving income expectations [9].

● 本报记者 谭丁豪 2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。Wind数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒 生科技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "今年港股市场整体呈现估值修复的态势，有业绩支撑的行业估值扩张更为显著，例如原材料板块。在 此背景下，具有进一步基本面支撑的行业有望获得更大的估值上行空间。"徐广鸿说。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度看，2021年春 ...

近期韩政府召开资源安全协商会，审议了运营规程、资源安全强化方案、核心供需机构指定、稀土 供应链对策以及第5次石油储备计划等五大议题。政府将通过建立国家级综合数据库与预警体系，将危 机应对模式从事后处理转为事前预防与常态监测。 韩国《亚洲经济》12月5日报道，韩国政府依据《国家资源安全特别法》，全面推进能源与矿物资 源供应链政策重构，以应对长期化的全球地缘政治风险与关键资源供需不稳定。 稀土供应链被列为本次政策的最重要议题。韩国将17类稀土全部纳入关键矿物，推出短、中、长期 路线图：短期着重稳定从中国的供应与提升储备；中期推动美国、澳大利亚、日本、东南亚等多元化供 应链合作与联合投资；长期聚焦国内精炼能力培育、回收体系建设及相关研发投入。 政府同时强化政企联合危机响应架构，将炼油、天然气和矿物企业指定为核心供应机构，将半导 体、汽车等行业龙头指定为核心需求机构，并在供应风险或价格异常时实现快速汇报与多渠道协同处 置。海外资源开发政策将全面转向项目基准模式，国家将以定制化政策包支持企业分担风险，提高贷款 支持比例，并将关键矿物储备从100天提升至180天，同时推动天然气储备体系双轨化。 （原标题：韩重整关键矿产供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is attempting to reduce its reliance on Eastern countries for critical raw materials, particularly rare earth elements, to ensure supply chain security [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Strategic Initiatives - The EU has launched the "ResourceEU" plan, committing €3 billion (approximately 24.7 billion RMB) to key raw materials needed for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductors over the next year [2]. - The intention behind this investment is to diversify Europe's supply chain through recycling, joint procurement, and strategic reserves, aiming to regain some control over rare earth materials [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - The acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM) by USA Rare Earth signifies a critical blow to Europe's rare earth industry, as LCM is one of the few companies in Europe capable of converting rare earth oxides into metals and alloys [5][8]. - The loss of LCM means that Europe may not be able to produce the magnets required for electric vehicles, despite having access to raw materials [7][11]. - The current situation indicates that while Europe seeks to establish its own supply chain, it is losing existing capabilities to American companies, which could lead to a dependency shift from China to the U.S. [11][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. is leveraging its capital strength and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to acquire critical mineral assets globally, which poses a threat to Europe's industrial base [13][15]. - There is a growing realization that the EU's efforts to secure raw materials may inadvertently lead to a form of dependency on the U.S., rather than achieving true autonomy [12][20]. - The EU's current predicament reflects a struggle between wanting to reduce reliance on China while simultaneously facing the risk of becoming subordinate to U.S. interests in the critical materials sector [20][22].

哈喽，大家好！今天小界要和大家聊聊当特朗普在涉台法案上签署时，中国的稀土管制精准打击已直接 触及美国军工的要害。这不仅仅是资源的断供问题，而是一套让五角大楼完全束手无策的组合拳。就在 美国忙于应对这一困境时，另一个对中国稀土高度依赖的国家——日本，也遇到了最为担心的局面。中 国稀土这一王牌，为什么能让两个军事经济强国都面临压力？ 五角大楼早在上世纪就开始呼吁重建稀土供应链，但进展一直很缓慢，关键问题出在稀土提纯技术这一 技术壁垒上。开矿本身不难，美国本土的芒廷帕斯稀土矿储量非常丰富，但将这些矿石转化为F-35战机 和导弹芯片所需的高纯度材料，却需要一种极为复杂的化学分离工艺。 中国在稀土提纯领域的优势，正是经过数十年技术积累的结晶。从独家优化的萃取剂配方到自主设计的 分离设备，整个工艺形成了坚不可摧的技术壁垒。美国曾联合澳大利亚、加拿大等盟友投入上百亿美元 进行攻关，却发现即便复制了生产线，也需要至少五年时间调整工艺参数，再花五年培养熟练技工。业 内普遍认为，突破这一壁垒最少也需要10年。 然而，美国军工根本等不起这10年。F-35战机的生产线每天都需要稀土磁性材料，雷神公司的导弹订单 已经排到2030年以后 ...

据澎湃新闻，12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 路透社记者提问，近日多位欧洲领导人访问中国，表达了对中国向欧洲供应稀土的担忧。这些访问是否旨在寻求中方就确保欧洲稀土供应作 出承诺，或者承诺发放稀土通用许可证？第二个问题，日本媒体报道称，由于北京和东京之间的外交争端，中国向日本出口稀土出现延误。 中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示， 中方主管部门已经多次介绍了稀土相关物项出口管制的工作情况，中方正在依法依规处理有关问题。 ...