Consumer Macro Strategy - The overall performance of the discretionary consumption sector is flat as the year-end approaches, but high-end consumption, including duty-free shopping in islands, is expected to gradually stabilize overall consumption [2][10] - The implementation plan released on November 26 aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, with a goal to optimize the supply structure by 2027, creating three trillion-yuan consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-yuan consumption hotspots [2][10] - By 2030, a high-quality development pattern of mutual promotion between supply and consumption is expected to be established, with consumption steadily contributing to economic growth [2][10] New Consumption Manufacturing - The pet economy continues to thrive, with companies like Guobao Pet investing in high-end pet food factories in New Zealand, enhancing competitiveness in international markets [23][24] - The AI and 3D printing sector is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements expected in consumer-grade 3D printing by 2026, driven by companies like Huina Technology and Snapmaker [25][26] - The integration of AI with 3D printing is being promoted in educational settings, expanding the supply space for the industry [25] Light Industry Manufacturing - The home appliance sector is facing weak domestic demand, but there are opportunities for companies with overseas production capabilities and brand advantages as demand recovers [26][27] - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in e-cigarette exports to the U.S., which saw a significant increase in October [27][28] - The packaging industry is showing signs of profitability improvement despite a slight decline in revenue, driven by leading companies capturing market share from smaller firms [28] Textile and Apparel - The apparel sector is experiencing fluctuations in consumer demand, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate unique advantages in the market [30][31] - The export market remains under pressure due to trade tensions, but leading textile manufacturers are expected to present investment opportunities as they maintain strong positions in the industry [31] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector shows positive fundamentals, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales for cosmetics in October, although valuations have been affected by the new consumption sector [32][33] - The medical beauty segment is expanding, with new products gaining regulatory approval, indicating growth potential in the market [33] Home Appliances - Focus on two directions: resilient white goods leaders with strong cash flow and black goods leaders benefiting from optimized domestic sales and stable costs [34][35] - The white goods sector is facing pressure in domestic sales, while black goods are seeing improvements in average prices and export recovery [36][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, with core targets in the self-consumption sector (including gaming companies like Giant Network, Huatuo, and Kaiying, as well as Pop Mart, Cloud Music, and Damai) currently trading at a PE ratio of less than 20x for 2026, indicating a high safety margin [4][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural consumption dividend from young domestic users willing to pay for enjoyment, driven by globalization leading to a second growth curve. It suggests focusing on current layout opportunities [4][3]. - In the gaming sector, the report highlights the underestimation of the potential in the female-oriented market and the overseas expansion opportunities, with a significant portion of Gen Z users (65%) [5][3]. - For Pop Mart, the market's overly pessimistic expectations regarding single IPs are noted, with expansion in IP and regions (especially in Europe and North America) being crucial for mid-term growth [6][3]. Gaming Sector Summary - The gaming sector is characterized by a youthful demographic, with a significant opportunity in female-oriented games. The report suggests that the market underestimates the long-term operational capabilities of leading companies [5][3]. - Key companies highlighted include Giant Network, Tencent, Century Huatong, and Bilibili, with specific mentions of their upcoming products and growth strategies [5][3]. Toy Industry Summary - Pop Mart's global expansion is noted, with 171 overseas stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America and 28 in Europe. The report anticipates significant sales growth during the holiday season [6][3]. - The report also discusses the importance of extending the lifecycle of IPs and the successful innovation and iteration of products to maintain fan engagement [6][3]. Music Industry Summary - The valuation of Tencent's music companies is highlighted, with an average PE of 17x for 2026. The report indicates that the market is underestimating the potential for subscription-based revenue from young users [7][3]. - It contrasts Tencent's focus on premium content and community engagement with the low-cost model of competitors, suggesting a stable demand for music consumption [7][3]. Other Notable Companies - The report mentions other entertainment companies like Red Star and the potential for growth in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly with Alibaba Cloud's AI narrative and the expected benefits from AI applications [8][3]. - The report also notes the ongoing developments in AI technology and its implications for various sectors, including advertising and video content [9][3].

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 - ⚫ 我们认为悦己消费核心标的（游戏巨人、华通、恺英等，泡泡玛特、云音乐、大麦）当 前已经消化至 26 年 PE 不到 20x，有较高安全边际，同时全球化带动第 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady progress of globalization, with a positive outlook on overseas supply chain and channel expansion to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category possesses strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the company has expanded its overseas retail store count to 171, aligning with its strategic plan, with significant growth potential in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia [1] Group 2 - The performance of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the company's brand strength significantly improving [2] - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other leading IPs has elevated the company's brand power, as evidenced by participation in major events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 38.865 billion, 52.738 billion, and 66.946 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on store openings and product launches [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 13.648 billion, 18.429 billion, and 23.569 billion, indicating confidence in the company's long-term operational capabilities and competitive landscape [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the way individuals perceive the world shapes their understanding and actions within the business landscape, highlighting the importance of perspective in identifying opportunities and challenges [3][4][5]. Group 1: Business Landscape - The current market environment has fundamentally changed, with stable channel structures and heightened information density, requiring brands to return to their essence and address core questions about their identity and values [10][11]. - New brand creators are responding to these challenges by capturing emotional needs, integrating products and services into a cohesive experience, and maintaining stable aesthetics and values [11][12][13]. Group 2: Recognition of Leaders - The "WISE2025 Business Kings" initiative aims to identify individuals, companies, and products that define the era in the business field, showcasing those who have changed the commercial landscape through their unique perspectives and practices [6][7]. - The list of "Annual Brand Influence Figures" includes notable leaders such as Wang Ning (Founder and CEO of Pop Mart), Ye Guofu (Founder and CEO of Miniso), and Liu Jingkang (Founder and Chairman of Insta360), who have made significant impacts in their respective industries [14][16][19][21]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - In the technology sector, true leaders redefine problems rather than just focusing on solutions, leading to profound changes across various fields such as AI, life sciences, and smart manufacturing [37][38]. - The "WISE2025 Annual Technology Leaders" list features influential figures like Liu Xing (Founder and CEO of Horizon Robotics) and Wu Xin Hong (Founder and CEO of Meitu), who are pushing the boundaries of technology application [40][42][46]. Group 4: New Generation of Entrepreneurs - The new generation of entrepreneurs operates without the inertia of previous models, finding opportunities in fragmented demands and undefined trends, leading to the emergence of new products and lifestyles [72][74]. - The "WISE2025 Annual New Generation Pioneers" list highlights innovative leaders who are revitalizing the market by introducing fresh perspectives and solutions [75][77].

2025.11. 29 本文字数：1319，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 韦薇 咨询机构弗若斯特沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）数据显示，2015年至2024年，全球潮玩市场规模从87亿元增长至448亿元，年复合增速接近23%。在这 期间，包括欧美、日韩以及中国在内的潮玩市场均快速增长。如今，北美、欧洲和中国已成为全球前三大市场，而东南亚、东欧等新兴市场近年的增速 也不断加快。 载有Labubu的花车（来源：第一财经摄像） 近两年来，众多中国新消费企业进军海外市场，以寻求更高的利润率增长，包括名创优品、瑞幸咖啡、喜茶、霸王茶姬等。其中，名创优品股份有限公 司旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正加速海外开店。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、 渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范围，亦可能再度引发投资者兴趣。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的 海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, setting quantifiable targets of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, thereby optimizing the supply structure of consumer goods [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation Plan Goals - By 2027, the plan targets a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure, establishing three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1]. - By 2030, a high-quality development pattern characterized by positive interaction between supply and consumption is expected to be fundamentally established, with a steady increase in the contribution of consumption to economic growth [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - As of now, the total variety of consumer goods in China has reached 230 million, with over 100 categories, including home appliances and furniture, leading global production [2]. - In the first ten months of this year, retail sales of goods reached 36.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, which is an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Development - The plan emphasizes the cultivation of key areas such as elderly products and smart connected vehicles, reflecting the demand driven by demographic changes and technological upgrades [4]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the importance of the silver economy [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Implementation - The plan includes measures to enhance the supply of elderly products, such as developing necessary products like nursing robots and health monitoring devices, and promoting home modifications for the elderly [4]. - To achieve the set goals, the plan calls for accelerated technological innovation, market cultivation through new consumption scenarios, and the establishment of a supportive policy framework [5].

当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周 期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性"的。 未来，北美市场无疑将是中国新消费发力的重点。 泡泡玛特COO司德此前也解释称，美国市场非常大，购买力非常旺盛。同时，美国消费者对整个IP设 计、周边衍生品的需求是很旺盛的。美国市场的零售亦非常成熟，不管是购物中心体系、零售人才等各 个方面都足够好。但是，美国在产品更新、创意设计等方面的节奏，未必赶得上中国的设计效率和迭代 速度。 "其实这是我们两年前就看明白的事情，但我们也确实花了两年时间找到好的 ...

泡泡玛特这个名字对于很多美国人而言仍然陌生，但多数人都知道Labubu，尤其是孩子。一位被父母 带着来看花车巡游的小女孩茉莉对第一财经表示："我是在社交媒体上知道这些潮玩的。" 一位名叫迈克的"纽约客"对第一财经表示，"我是这个中国潮玩的粉丝，但你要确认Labubu究竟有几颗 牙齿，应该是9颗，不然就是假货。" 中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。 当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美 等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范 围，亦可能 ...

Core Insights - The implementation plan by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aims to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, based on comprehensive analysis of consumption trends, industrial foundations, and technological changes [3][4]. Trillion-Level Consumption Sectors - The three trillion-level consumption sectors identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics. For instance, the market size for elderly products has grown from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to an expected 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the significance of the silver economy [4]. Hundred-Billion-Level Consumption Hotspots - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots encompass a diverse range of products, including baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet food, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing. These sectors are showing strong growth momentum and significant development potential, contributing to a diversified and vibrant consumer market [4][6]. Emerging Trends - The rise of health-conscious living and the concept of national fitness are driving increased demand for outdoor products and fitness equipment [6]. - The IP economy, which leverages intellectual property to create economic value, aligns with the consumption preferences of younger demographics, leading to a rapid global popularity of trendy toy products [8]. Market Resilience - The multi-faceted and layered approach to consumption hotspots is expected to significantly enhance the resilience and vitality of the domestic consumer market, providing solid support for the construction of a new development pattern [8].