| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1110 | 1120 | -10 | -0.89% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1096 | 1101 | -5 | -0.45% | | | 玻璃2509 | 682 | ે જેટ | -3 | -0.30% | | | 05基差 | 84 | 79 | 5 | 6.33% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Group 1 - The supply of soda ash remains in excess, requiring upstream low operating rates to maintain supply-demand balance, with high visible inventory levels in the midstream and upstream sectors [1][5] - Domestic soda ash is in a capacity expansion cycle, with new capacity of 2.5 million tons expected in 2024 and an additional 900,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025, leading to an overall effective capacity growth rate of approximately 5.6% by 2025 [2][4] - From August 2024, due to domestic soda ash surplus and declining prices, the export window has opened, with some producers actively exploring overseas markets, resulting in a net export status for soda ash [2][4] Group 2 - The float glass production is currently at a low level, with significant losses reported since July 2024, leading to an increase in cold repairs and a decrease in daily melting capacity from 170,000 tons to 158,000 tons [3] - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a rebound, with daily melting capacity increasing to around 100,000 tons by the end of April 2025, although inventory levels are rising, which may hinder further increases [3] - Light soda ash demand growth is projected at 7.2% for 2024, but the growth rate for 2025 is expected to be lower at around 5.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% observed from January to April 2025 [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for soda ash remains oversupplied, with significant new production capacity planned for 2025, including 4.05 million tons from various producers [4] - The current high levels of visible inventory in the upstream sector indicate that while there may be short-term rebounds, sustained low operating rates will be necessary to maintain balance [5] - The forecasted operating rate for 2025 is approximately 83.7%, down from 86.4% in 2024, indicating a continued oversupply situation for soda ash [4]

天胶观点 交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月30日 现货价格及基差 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 14050 -200 -1.42% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -30 245 -275 -112.24% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13800 14400 -600 -4.17% 非标价差 -80 295 -675 -113.45% 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 49.95 51.60 -1.65 -3.20% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 62.75 -0.50 -0.80% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12200 12800 -4.69% -600 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13300 12600 -700 -5.26% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12900 13100 -200 -1.53% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单 ...

成交一般； 产销：沙河83，湖北129，华东102，华南110 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1310.0 | 1260.0 | 1260.0 | -50.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1315.0 | 1268.0 | 1260.0 | -55.0 | -8.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1280.0 | 1240.0 | 1240.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1279.0 | 1212.0 | 1207.0 | -72.0 | -5.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1288.0 | 1 ...

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北重碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 华北氨碱法利润 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 华北联碱法利润 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北轻碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 100 纯碱开工率（%） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 0 100 150 200 250 纯碱厂库+交割库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, and raw material pressure may gradually emerge. Demand from tire enterprises is in a state of restorative improvement, but tire factory inventories have resumed accumulating, with significant inventory pressure on semi - steel tires. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate weakly, and previous short positions should be held. Attention should be paid to the performance at the 14,000 level [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The spot price in East China has continued to decline by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while the price in Xinjiang has stabilized. With an expected increase in supply, the price of industrial silicon futures SI2507 has decreased by 305 yuan/ton to 7,610 yuan/ton. The supply side is expected to grow despite weak demand, mainly due to the resumption of production of small enterprises in Southwest China, the commissioning of new production capacities, and the resumption of production of large enterprises. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, continues to weaken, but the organic silicon industry shows some signs of improvement. With limited demand growth, declining raw material costs, and an expected increase in production, the fundamentals remain bearish, and prices are still under pressure [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is gradually stabilizing, but the far - month futures price has dropped significantly due to the decline in the price of raw material industrial silicon and the expected increase in supply. The price of PS2507 has decreased by 1,205 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decline of over 3%. Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production in conjunction with capacity replacement or are still in the commissioning phase. The 06 contract is relatively firm as the first delivery is approaching in June, with a position of about 14,000 lots and no increase in warehouse receipts, which remain at 470 lots. Technically, the polysilicon futures price is still under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in polysilicon production [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Despite the negative pressure of the commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products. The recent production decline due to maintenance is significant, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance in June. Therefore, the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. Considering short - term supply changes, it is more likely that inventories will remain stable. Fundamentally, the resumption of production in the photovoltaic industry has brought some demand for soda ash, but the overall demand has not increased significantly due to the stable and slightly decreasing float glass production capacity. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after the maintenance period ends. From May to June, the implementation of maintenance can be monitored. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial for the June - July contracts. Short - term operations can involve short - selling on rebounds for far - month contracts, and calendar spreads between July and September can be considered [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. This week, the spot price of glass has mainly continued to weaken, with widespread price cuts in various regions. During the decline in the futures market, spot - futures traders have mainly sold, affecting the production and sales rate of manufacturers. From April to May, downstream deep - processing orders have gradually improved, and the demand from processing plants has seasonally recovered, leading to a phased improvement in glass supply and demand. However, market expectations are poor, with an expected slowdown in demand after June due to the summer rainy season. The actual fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are moderately bearish. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and will operate weakly with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether the 09 contract can break through the 1,000 level, as a breakthrough may lead to further decline [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai has decreased from 14,700 yuan/ton on May 23 to 14,300 yuan/ton on May 26, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.72%. The basis of whole - latex (switched to the 2509 contract) has decreased from 165 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton or 160.61%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased from 14,400 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.35%. The non - standard price difference has increased from - 135 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 62.96% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread has increased from - 785 yuan/ton to - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 3.18%. The 1 - 5 spread has decreased from - 105 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 19.05%. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from 890 yuan/ton to 885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.56% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production in Thailand decreased by 29.16% to 105,700 tons, the production in Indonesia decreased by 7.26% to 194,100 tons, the production in India decreased by 14.34% to 45,400 tons, and the production in China decreased by 58.10% to 15,800 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires has decreased by 0.11 percentage points to 78.22%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires has decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 64.96%. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07% to 102.002 million units, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 7.87% to 57.39 million units. The total import volume of natural rubber in March increased by 18.07% to 594,100 tons, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April decreased by 9.21% to 690,000 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) has decreased by 0.73% to 614,189 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE has decreased by 38.02% to 43,544 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched S15530 industrial silicon has decreased from 8,650 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) has decreased from 770 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 11.04%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon has decreased from 9,500 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The basis (based on SI4210) has decreased from 820 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 16.46%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon has remained unchanged at 8,020 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread has remained unchanged at - 30 yuan/ton, the 2507 - 2508 spread has decreased from - 30 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 16.67%, the 2508 - 2509 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00%, the 2509 - 2510 spread has increased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 40.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55% to 167,500 tons, the production in Yunnan increased by 9.35% to 13,500 tons, and the production in Sichuan increased by 145.65% to 11,300 tons. The national operating rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%, the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased by 22.18% to 60.74%, the operating rate in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% to 18.13%, and the operating rate in Sichuan increased by 1389.80% to 7.30%. The production of organic silicon DMC in April decreased by 8.04% to 172,800 tons, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 5.28% to 610,000 tons, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1.64% to 60,500 tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang has decreased by 6.95% to 187,400 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan has increased by 1.26% to 24,100 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan has decreased by 0.44% to 22,500 tons, the social inventory has decreased by 2.84% to 582,000 tons, the warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 1.00% to 324,600 tons, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 5.06% to 257,400 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, and N - type granular silicon has remained unchanged at 36,500 yuan/ton, 30,000 yuan/ton, and 34,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type feedstock (average price) has increased from 410 yuan/ton to 1,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 293.90%, and the basis of cauliflower feedstock (average price) has increased from 5,910 yuan/ton to 7,115 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 20.39% [5]. Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spreads - The price of PS2506 has decreased from 36,090 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,205 yuan/ton or 3.34%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread has increased from 1,105 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 90.05%, the PS2507 - PS2508 spread has increased from 735 yuan/ton to 852 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton or 16.33%, the PS2508 - PS2509 spread has increased from 265 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 32.08%, the PS2509 - PS2510 spread has decreased from 270 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 57.41%, the PS2510 - PS2511 spread has increased from 80 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 137.50%, and the PS2511 - PS2512 spread has decreased from - 1,715 yuan/ton to - 1,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 1.17% [5]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13,300 GM, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 21,500 tons. Monthly: In April, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 69.49% to 10,000 tons, the polysilicon export volume decreased by 37.06% to 13,000 tons, the net polysilicon export volume increased by 127.44% to 3,000 tons, the silicon wafer production increased by 14.95% to 58,350 GM, the silicon wafer import volume increased by 46.90% to 900 tons, the silicon wafer export volume increased by 7.13% to 6,300 tons, and the silicon wafer net export volume increased by 2.64% to 5,500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 260,000 tons, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18,950 GM, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,180 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,310 yuan/ton, the Central China price decreased by 0.88% to 1,120 yuan/ton, and the South China price remained unchanged at 1,320 yuan/ton. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 1.25% to 1,130 yuan/ton, and the price of Glass 2509 increased by 1.90% to 1,019 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 21.88% to 50 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,500 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,450 yuan/ton, the Central China price remained unchanged at 1,400 yuan/ton, and the Northwest price remained unchanged at 1,120 yuan/ton. The price of Soda Ash 2505 decreased by 0.85% to 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 0.08% to 1,254 yuan/ton. The 05 - 7 spread increased by 5.47% to 212 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04% to 78.63%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 2.05% to 663,800 tons, the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 156,700 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 99,990 tons. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% to 21 yuan [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67,769,000 weight boxes, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06% to 1.6768 million tons, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.82% to 368,000 tons, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 18.1 days [6]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year) - The new construction area increased by

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/5/22 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/20 | | 2025/5/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/20 | | 2025/5/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1173.0 | 1138.0 | 1138.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1046.0 | 1025.0 | 1034.0 | -12.0 | 9.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1164.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -34.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1098.0 | 1081.0 | 1088.0 | -10.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The demand for natural rubber is expected to remain weak, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production season will suppress the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate widely, with the operating range referring to 14,500 - 15,500. It is advisable to short at high levels within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On May 21, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, a rise of 175.00%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The non - standard price difference increased by 70 to - 270, a rise of 20.59% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 815 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.00%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, Thailand's production decreased by 197,200 tons to 149,200 tons, a decline of 56.93%. Indonesia's production increased by 11,700 tons to 209,300 tons, a rise of 5.92%. India's production decreased by 21,000 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 28.38%. China's production increased by 15,800 tons to 15,800 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 19.98 percentage points to 78.33%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 20.32 percentage points to 65.09%. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 544,400 to 102,002,000, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 490,000 to 5,739,000, a decline of 7.87%. In March, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 90,900 tons to 594,100 tons, a rise of 18.07%. In April, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 70,000 tons to 690,000 tons, a decline of 9.21% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased by 4,506 tons to 618,693 tons, a rise of 0.73%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 4,435 tons to 70,257 tons, a decline of 5.94%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points to 7.04%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points to 5.17%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 1.06 percentage points to 6.14%, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points to 7.38% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash has new pressure with the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. Although the production decreased significantly due to maintenance last week and the market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, the inventory is expected to remain flat in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after the maintenance. From May to June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance is implemented, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For single - side trading, short - term high - selling operations on the far - month contracts are recommended, and for inter - month trading, a long - July and short - September strategy can be considered [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market of glass is generally weak, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic. The spot price of glass has further declined recently. Although the downstream deep - processing orders have gradually improved from April to May and the demand of processing plants has seasonally recovered, the market expectation is poor, and there is an expectation of a summer rainy - season off - peak from June. The actual fundamentals have marginally improved, but the expectation and sentiment are moderately weak. It is expected that the glass price will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is necessary to observe whether the 1000 level can provide support for the 09 contract [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On May 22, the North China quotation remained unchanged at 1,180 yuan/ton, the East China quotation decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,310 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76%, the Central China quotation remained unchanged at 1,130 yuan/ton, and the South China quotation remained unchanged at 1,320 yuan/ton. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,136 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%, and that of Glass 2509 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1,034 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.88%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.73% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotations of soda ash remained unchanged at 1,500 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,400 yuan/ton, and 1,120 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Soda Ash 2505 remained unchanged at 1,315 yuan/ton, and that of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.61%. The 05 basis remained unchanged at 185 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply Volume**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 8.51 percentage points to 80.27%, and the weekly production decreased by 63,000 tons to 677,700 tons, a decline of 8.52%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 156,700 tons, a rise of 1.03%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 99,990 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass increased by 1 yuan to 20.49 yuan, a rise of 5.02% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 522,000 weight - boxes to 68,082,000, a rise of 0.77%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 1,712,000 tons, a rise of 0.63%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 365,000 tons, a decline of 2.90%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged at 18.1 days [3]. - **Real Estate Data Year - on - Year**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, that of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, that of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and that of sales area increased by 12.13 percentage points to - 1.55% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon in East China continued to decline by 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price continued to be under pressure and declined. The price has been continuously falling mainly because, even at low prices, the supply is still expected to increase while the demand remains weak. The fundamentals have not shown signs of improvement, and the price may continue to be under pressure. The price fluctuation range is adjusted down to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the capacity clearance [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: On May 21, the price of oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 835 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.18%. The price of SI4210 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03%. The basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 935 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.56%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 990 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.55% [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2506 - 2507 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.67%. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.67%. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.29%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decline of 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 41,400 tons to 300,800 tons, a decline of 12.10%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 43,300 tons to 167,500 tons, a decline of 20.55%. Yunnan's production increased by 1,200 tons to 13,500 tons, a rise of 9.35%. Sichuan's production increased by 6,700 tons to 11,300 tons, a rise of 145.65%. The national operating rate decreased by 6.57 percentage points to 51.23%. Xinjiang's operating rate decreased by 17.31 percentage points to 60.74%. Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 1.84 percentage points to 18.13%. Sichuan's operating rate increased by 6.81 percentage points to 7.30%. The production of organic silicon DMC in April decreased by 15,100 tons to 172,800 tons, a decline of 8.04%. The production of polysilicon decreased by 700 tons to 95,400 tons, a decline of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 34,000 tons to 610,000 tons, a decline of 5.28%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1,000 tons to 60,500 tons, a rise of 1.64% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17,000 tons to 201,400 tons, a decline of 7.79%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan decreased by 200 tons to 23,800 tons, a decline of 0.83%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 100 tons to 22,600 tons, a rise of 0.22%. The social inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 599,000 tons, a rise of 0.50%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 328,300 tons, a decline of 0.90%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 270,700 tons, a rise of 2.26% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The SMM - quoted price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of PS2507 increased by 235 yuan/ton to 35,860 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply - demand fundamentals, the demand is highly likely to decline in May, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation expectation due to the non - decreasing supply. It was originally expected that production enterprises would increase maintenance and reduce production in May and postpone the restart plan, and slow inventory reduction was expected according to industry self - discipline. However, the uncertainty of joint production reduction has increased, and the polysilicon production is expected to increase with the restart of some enterprises. As it gradually enters mid - May and the first delivery is approaching in June, the warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The warehouse receipts increased significantly by 310 to 450. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of the market. Although the quality of the warehouse - receipt products traded in the futures market is higher, and special production lines need to be planned in advance for producing delivery products, which will increase the reduction power consumption and cost, so the expected price of deliverable products by enterprises will have a significant premium compared with ordinary spot products. The overall decline in the spot price will also lower the expected futures price. It is expected that the main fluctuation range of the futures price will move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and the fundamentals will weaken [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On May 21, the average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.67%. The average price of P - type cauliflower material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 30,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.23%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 34,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) decreased by 1,235 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton, a decline of 65.87%. The basis of cauliflower material (average price) decreased by 1,235 yuan/ton to 6,140 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.75% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The price of PS2506 increased by 235 yuan/ton to 35,860 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.66%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.56%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 570 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.04%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread remained unchanged at 240 yuan/ton. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread increased by 85 yuan/ton to 285 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.50%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 70.83%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,765 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.92% [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The production of silicon wafers increased by 70 MW

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| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/5/20 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/16 | | 2025/5/19 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/16 | | 2025/5/19 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1190.0 | 1150.0 | 1138.0 | -52.0 | -12.0 | FG09合约 | 1045.0 | 1005.0 | 1018.0 | -27.0 | 13.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1181.0 | 1138.0 | 1130.0 | -51.0 | -8.0 | FG01合约 | 1086.0 | 1062.0 | 1075.0 | -11.0 | 13.0 | | 沙河5m ...