Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Stock Exchange has imposed self-regulatory measures on Zhejiang Haokun Shengfa Asset Management Co., Ltd. due to serious abnormal trading behaviors that manipulated the stock price of Huawi Design (920427.BJ) [2][5]. Group 1: Abnormal Trading Activities - On January 21-22, 2026, the closing price of Huawi Design experienced a cumulative increase of 68.07%, triggering abnormal trading conditions, with Haokun Shengfa's accounts significantly buying shares to inflate the price [5]. - On January 23, 2026, Haokun Shengfa's accounts continued to engage in price manipulation, with a price increase of 6.42% during a specific time frame, where 436,700 shares were bought for 10.1374 million yuan, accounting for 67.90% of the total transactions [5]. - In another time frame on the same day, the price increased by 2.45%, with 137,900 shares bought for 310.50 thousand yuan, making up 87.95% of the transactions [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions and History - The Beijing Stock Exchange has restricted trading for Haokun Shengfa's accounts for three months and recorded this in the securities and futures market integrity archive due to repeated violations of trading regulations [7]. - Previously, Haokun Shengfa had faced multiple penalties, including a warning from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau in November 2025 for unfair treatment of different fund properties and misleading promotional materials [7]. - The company has also been listed in the business anomaly directory by the Hangzhou Yuhang District Market Supervision Administration in 2018 and 2021 due to uncontactable registered addresses or business locations [8].

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the local AMC industry, indicating a steady credit level in the future [5][12]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that regulatory policies in 2026 will continue to guide AMCs back to their core responsibilities, focusing on risk resolution for small financial institutions and real estate [5][11]. - The profitability of local AMCs is expected to weaken due to increased competition and challenges in asset disposal, despite government support enhancing their capital strength [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable liquidity reserves and effective liquidity management to withstand market fluctuations [5][7]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The current economic environment in China is characterized by moderate recovery and structural transformation, facing challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and rising credit risks [8]. - Local AMCs are increasingly recognized as vital components of the regional financial system, particularly in managing non-performing assets [8]. Industry Policy - Regulatory policies are expected to push AMCs towards their main responsibilities, enhancing their governance and risk management capabilities [9][11]. - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Local Asset Management Companies" is anticipated to create short-term pressures on some AMCs while promoting long-term professional development [9][10]. Industry Financing - The financing costs for local AMCs are projected to continue declining due to low market interest rates and improved debt structures [15][19]. - The report notes that the net financing amount for local AMCs is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with ongoing trends of shareholder capital increases [15][19]. Industry Operations - The report highlights that the acquisition of non-performing assets will remain a significant business opportunity for local AMCs, despite challenges in asset quality and disposal difficulties [29][30]. - Local AMCs are expected to innovate their asset disposal methods and enhance operational capabilities to improve recovery efficiency [29][30].

【环球网财经报道 记者谭雅文】2025年，除了存款储蓄，你的钱都投向哪了？从最新披露的行业数据来看，一个明显 的趋势是，公募基金与理财市场正迎来增量资金，规模均取得突破。通过购买各类资管产品进行多元化配置，成为居 民财富管理的重要选择。 官方发布最新的统计数据显示，截至2025年底，公募基金与银行理财市场规模分别为37.71万亿元和33.29万亿元，全 年增长4.89万亿元和3.34万亿元，同比增幅达14.89%和11.15%。业内专家认为，规模增长背后反映的是居民财富管理 需求持续释放，其核心驱动力源于低利率环境下的资产配置重构。 这一偏好结构也预示着市场的资金流向，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙分析认为，风险偏好较高的资金可能配置 股票或基金；风险偏好较低、追求稳定回报的资金可能流入债市。因此2026年股市与债市都有一定机会，但股市上涨 带来的财富效应可能吸引更多资金偏向股市。 规模扩张可期，能力建设面临挑战 面对持续涌入的增量资金预期，资管行业准备好了吗？专家用"量能充足，质效待提"概括了当前的承接态势。 规模增长背后：双重因素影响财富流向 "从规模数据看，截至2025年末，银行理财存续规模突破33万亿 ...

比特币周五跌至两个月低点，因为市场猜测美联储下任主席可能会收紧金融系统中的现金，这打击了加 密货币，并抬高了美元。在特朗普的领导下，加密货币一度有望迎来流动和友好监管的黄金时代，但加 密货币的日子并不好过，市场领先的比特币自10月份创下历史新高以来已贬值三分之一。比特币周五下 跌2.5%，报收于82，300美元，延续了上一交易日的跌势，连续第四个月下跌，创下八年来最长连跌纪 录 。前美联储理事沃什即将被特朗普任命为接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选的猜测愈演愈烈，导致抛售加 剧。沃什曾呼吁中央银行进行制度变革，并希望，除其他外，美联储的资产负债表规模要小一些。比特 币和其他加密货币一直被认为是庞大资产负债表的受益者，在美联储为货币市场注入流动性的同时，它 们往往会反弹--这是对投机资产的支持。"当你开始谈论从资产负债表下抽出地毯时．．．．．．人们 一直追捧的所有资产负债表扩张对冲工具--黄金、加密货币，显然还有债券，都开始有点抛售。"悉尼 威尔逊资产管理公司（Wilson Asset Management）投资组合策略师Damien Boey说。以太币也跌至两个 月低点，交易价格下跌2.9%，报2，735.48美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is generating significant market speculation, particularly around the candidates Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder, with Warsh currently favored to be nominated [1][2]. Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is viewed as a "moderate hawk" who has historically criticized the Fed's policies, particularly its quantitative easing measures, and advocates for a combination of balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Rick Rieder, as the Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, manages approximately $2.4 trillion in assets and has a strong influence in financial markets. He has not held government positions but has interacted with the U.S. government and the Fed [6][7]. Policy Perspectives - Warsh emphasizes the Fed's core responsibility to control inflation and has criticized the Fed for maintaining an excessively large balance sheet, advocating for a strategy that combines balance sheet reduction with interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Rieder believes that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, suggesting that a slightly higher inflation rate could be acceptable to stabilize debt dynamics and maintain employment [7][8]. Market Implications - There are concerns regarding the potential impact on the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance under new leadership [2][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current political pressure on the Fed could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations and upward pressure on interest rates, which could affect U.S. stock valuations [9][10]. Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that the new Fed chair may lead to a stronger likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026, with expectations that global macroeconomic conditions may improve due to fiscal expansion [10]. - The Fed's reliance on data will be crucial in determining its policy direction, with potential risks associated with both hawkish and dovish scenarios depending on economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, focusing on Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh, highlighting their differing views on monetary policy and the implications for the market and the Fed's independence [2][3][5]. Candidate Profiles - Kevin Warsh is favored by President Trump and is known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, having criticized quantitative easing (QE) in the past. Recently, he has adopted a more dovish tone, suggesting that not lowering interest rates could threaten the Fed's credibility [3][4]. - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, manages approximately $2.4 trillion in assets and has significant influence in financial markets. He has not held a government position but has interacted with the U.S. government and the Fed [6][7]. Policy Divergence - Warsh emphasizes the Fed's core responsibility to control inflation and has criticized the Fed for maintaining a large balance sheet, which he believes has contributed to rising inflation. He advocates for a strategy combining balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Rieder argues that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, suggesting that a slightly higher inflation rate could be acceptable to stabilize debt dynamics and maintain employment [7][8]. Market Implications - There are concerns about the potential impact on the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance under new leadership. Investors are advised to pay more attention to non-U.S. asset investments [4][9]. - The market is currently focused on the Fed's independence, with some analysts expressing concerns that any perceived weakening of this independence could undermine confidence in U.S. monetary policy and the financial system [10][11]. Future Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the new Fed Chair may lead to a stronger likelihood of interest rate cuts, potentially exceeding market expectations, which could keep liquidity levels high. Global fiscal expansion may also improve marginal global demand [11][12]. - The Fed faces "hawkish risks" if unemployment rates drop and inflation rises, while "dovish risks" could emerge if unemployment exceeds 5% and inflation falls significantly [12].

2026.01. 30 本文字数：3472，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 封图 | 左为里德尔，右为沃什 "我选了一位非常棒的人来领导美联储，不会太令人意外，是我候选名单上的其中一人，该候选人在 金融界很有名。"当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储 主席人选时表示，将于"明天上午"（即当地时间1月30日上午、北京时间30日晚间）宣布美联储主席 人选。 在特朗普最新表态后，稍早杀出的候选人黑马——贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔 （Rick Rieder）在预测市场Polymarket上的提名概率在1月29日一度飙升至46%后回落至10%左右， 而美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的胜率从前一日的约44%飙升至87%。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓告诉第一财经，沃什属于特朗普喜欢的一类人，适合上电视 发表讲话。在货币政策上，崔晓介绍道，2008年沃什当选美联储理事时，其实非常"鹰派"，很不喜 欢量化宽松（QE）。"他离职后，对美联储政策也是批评颇多，但由于最近非常想获得美联储主席这 个位置，在利率问题上又变得很'鸽派'，甚至称美 ...

"我选了一位非常棒的人来领导美联储，不会太令人意外，是我候选名单上的其中一人，该候选人在金 融界很有名。"当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储主席人 选时表示，将于"明天上午"（即当地时间1月30日上午、北京时间30日晚间）宣布美联储主席人选。 在特朗普最新表态后，稍早杀出的候选人黑马——贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）在预测市场Polymarket上的提名概率在1月29日一度飙升至46%后回落至10%左右，而美联储理 事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的胜率从前一日的约44%飙升至87%。 他还多次警示美国政府的债务风险，认为庞大的债务利息支出正在变得难以为继。因而，美国要实现去 杠杆、降低债务规模，名义GDP增速必须高于债务成本。而要实现这一目标，有两条路径：一是保持较 高的经济增速，二是降低债务成本，但都需要降息。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓告诉第一财经，沃什属于特朗普喜欢的一类人，适合上电视发 表讲话。在货币政策上，崔晓介绍道，2008年沃什当选美联储理事时，其实非常"鹰派"，很不喜欢量化 宽松（QE）。"他离职后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence the Fed's independence, future policy direction, and investment strategies, with a focus on potential shifts towards a more dovish stance in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Perspectives - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate, is viewed as a "moderate hawk" who emphasizes inflation control as a core responsibility of the Fed, advocating for a strategy of balance sheet reduction combined with cautious interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Rick Rieder, another candidate, has a contrasting view, suggesting that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, proposing a more neutral monetary policy stance [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market anticipates that the Fed's independence will not face fundamental threats, but there is a growing expectation for a more dovish approach in future monetary policy, prompting investors to consider non-U.S. assets [2][8]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence have increased due to public pressure from the U.S. government, which could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy and the financial system [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential for rising inflation expectations could lead to upward pressure on interest rates, which may negatively impact U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sectors sensitive to discount rate changes [9][10]. - The global economic landscape may see a shift towards fiscal expansion, which could improve overall demand and lead to an increase in long-term interest rates, while the Fed's new chair may face pressure to lower rates further [10][11].

作者丨吴金铎 曾静娇 第一轮 是2022年黄金突破1800美元/盎司，2023年伦敦金价格较2022年上涨7.85%。 第二轮 是2025年美国向全世界推出所谓"对等关税"。美元是自由贸易的最大受益者，关税政策的推出，较大程度破坏了自由贸易，也不可避免 地影响了美元的信用地位。2025年伦敦金现货价格和COMEX黄金期货结算价（活跃合约）分别上涨至3439.2美元/盎司和3467.3美元/盎司，同 比涨幅均超过44%。2022年—2025年短短的四年时间，伦敦金上涨了91.1%。 第三轮 是2026年以来，美国政府新的对外政策冲击了世界政治和经济秩序，如在委内瑞拉的行动，以及对格陵兰岛主权的主张。世界各国对美 国和美元资产的信任受到极大冲击，黄金涨幅不断创新高，2026年1月29日，黄金价格已超过5500美元/盎司，市场不断上修黄金价格的预期。 编辑丨陆跃玲 在美元信用为主的国际货币体系受到冲击的条件下，黄金价格突破历史新高。 1月29日早间，"去中心化"资产黄金价格超过5500美元/盎司，深夜黄金突然跳水，一度回吐所有涨幅，而后探底反弹。 （回顾） | | | 黄金还会继续涨吗？ 现行的国际货币体系是197 ...