Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) saw a more than 4% increase in stock price, reaching 60.7 HKD with a trading volume of 517 million HKD [1] - Lithium carbonate main contract rose over 8% to 149,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant price increase in the lithium market [1] - UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium price supercycle, with a persistent supply-demand gap supporting prices significantly above market consensus [1] Group 2 - UBS has raised its 2026 lithium spodumene price forecast by 74% to 3,131 USD/ton and lithium carbonate to 26,000 USD/ton, driven by the electric vehicle sector achieving "triple parity" and surging energy storage demand [1] - Global lithium demand is expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium recently released a performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 to 1.65 billion RMB for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses [1] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities reported that lithium salt shipments in Q4 2025 are expected to remain stable, with price increases contributing to profit elasticity [1] - For 2026, Ganfeng Lithium's lithium salt shipment volume is projected to reach 210,000 tons, a 25% year-on-year increase, with self-supply resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons [1] - Assuming a lithium carbonate price of 150,000 RMB/ton, the company could contribute over 9 billion RMB in profit [1]

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw its stock price increase by over 4%, reaching HKD 60.7 with a trading volume of HKD 517 million [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate rose over 8% to RMB 149,000 per ton, indicating a significant price surge in the lithium market [1] - UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium price supercycle, with a persistent supply-demand gap supporting prices significantly above market consensus [1] Group 2 - UBS has raised its forecast for lithium spodumene prices by 74% to USD 3,131 per ton and for lithium carbonate to USD 26,000 per ton, driven by the demand from electric vehicles and energy storage [1] - Global demand for lithium is expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium recently issued a profit forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.65 billion for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses [1] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities reported that lithium salt shipments are expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, with price increases contributing to profit elasticity [1] - For 2026, Ganfeng Lithium's lithium salt shipment volume is projected to reach 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with self-supply resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons [1] - Assuming a lithium carbonate price of RMB 150,000 per ton, this could contribute over RMB 9 billion in profit [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price has reached an average of 136,500 RMB/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.37% from the previous trading day, with a price range of 132,500 to 140,500 RMB/ton [4] - The supply side is characterized by domestic production cuts due to maintenance and an increase in overseas imports, leading to a temporary tightening of domestic supply [5][6] - Demand for lithium carbonate is showing structural differentiation, with strong support from the energy storage sector, while the demand from the power battery sector is experiencing seasonal adjustments [7][8] Supply Side Summary - Domestic lithium salt production is facing temporary reductions due to maintenance, while overseas imports are increasing significantly, with a notable rise in port arrivals [6] - Despite the expected increase in imports, overall industry inventory continues to decline, indicating a cautious selling attitude among upstream enterprises [6] Demand Side Summary - The energy storage sector is driving strong demand for lithium carbonate, supported by the acceleration of large-scale energy storage projects and increased policy support [8] - The power battery sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in production plans due to the upcoming Spring Festival, but robust exports to overseas electric vehicle markets are providing a buffer against domestic demand fluctuations [8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the lithium carbonate sector, anticipating a price rebound post-holiday as demand recovers [9] - Key companies to watch include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Dazhong Mining [9]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场冷清，行情震荡 市场分析 2026-02-10，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于136500元/吨，收于137340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.03%。当日 成交量为295231手，持仓量为345989手，前一交易日持仓量344071手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4000元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单35537手，较上个交易日变化940手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价132000-140000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价129000-136000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1965美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。当前 下游材料厂为2月的备库已基本接近尾声，多数企业转向谨慎观望，采购心理价位偏低，仅少数厂家仍维持刚需采 购。整体来看，市场询价与成交情况稍显清淡。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为105463吨，环比-2019吨。其中冶炼厂库存为18356吨，环比-647吨；下游库 存为43657吨，环比+3058吨；其他库存为43450吨，环比-4430吨。2月需求 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91%. The total trading volume for the two markets was 1.30 trillion yuan, a decrease of 949 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Strong Performing Sectors - The rare earth and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced significant gains, with gold, zinc, and copper leading the charge. Stocks such as Xinjin Road and Xianglu Tungsten Industry hit the daily limit [1][3]. - The chemical and dye sectors continued to rise, with stocks like Vinegar Chemical and Huatai hitting the daily limit. Other stocks such as Hongtiansun and Rongsheng Petrochemical also saw gains [1][4]. - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Reascend Technology hitting the daily limit. Other companies such as Tianli Composite and Lais Information also performed well [1][5]. - The computing power leasing concept surged again, with stocks like Dazhi Technology hitting the daily limit. Other companies such as Nanjing Technology and Capital Online also saw significant gains [1][6]. - The lithium mining sector experienced fluctuations, with stocks like Dazhong Mining rising over 9% [1][7]. Institutional Insights - Minsheng Securities indicated that the week before the Spring Festival is an optimal window for positioning, suggesting investors take advantage of pullback opportunities before the holiday [2][10]. - China Galaxy Securities noted that the upcoming Spring Festival holiday could provide ample time for box office releases, with a focus on the performance of quality films during this period [11]. - CITIC Securities projected that the photovoltaic battery component industry may accelerate its "anti-involution" trend, with leading manufacturers likely to benefit from cost differentiation and technological advantages [12].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector experienced a significant rally, with major companies like Dazhong Mining seeing a rise of over 9% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dazhong Mining's stock increased by more than 9% amid the lithium mining concept surge [1] - Other companies such as Chuaneng Power, Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Co. also saw gains [1] Group 2: Commodity Price Movement - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 5%, reaching a price of 144,500 yuan per ton [1]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 137,340 | 340 | -10,760 | -42,260 | -6,080 | 56,500 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 295,231 | -10,090 | -324,311 | -87,082 | -174,248 | 240,532 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 345,989 | 1,918 | -9,781 | -76,444 | -164,885 | 216,498 | | | 盘 面 | 2607合约（收盘价） | 137,520 | 400 | -11,120 | -42,460 | -6,620 | 57,080 | | | | 2607合约（成交量） | 30,388 ...

Group 1 - The cinema sector experienced a collective surge, with significant gains attributed to the success of films like "Ne Zha 2," leading to continuous stock price increases for some listed companies [1] - The liquor industry faced a decline, influenced by comments from a key figure, indicating that the recent price increases were not supported by fundamental improvements, making long-term growth challenging [1] - The solar and lithium mining sectors have shown substantial market performance due to fundamental changes in their respective industries, indicating a more sustainable growth trajectory [1] Group 2 - The securities market is perceived to be in a prolonged period of stagnation, with expectations of a quick recovery not materializing, suggesting a need for patience in the current market environment [2] - The end of the year has brought unexpected developments, indicating that market activity remains robust despite initial assumptions of a slowdown [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Critical Minerals Ministerial Meeting" hosted by the U.S. aims to establish a coalition against China's dominance in the rare earth and critical minerals sector, despite the apparent focus on technical cooperation among participating countries [3][5][18]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Objectives - The U.S. emphasizes "supply chain security" and proposes the creation of a "Critical Minerals Preferential Trade Group" to set price floors and implement adjustable tariffs for resource extraction and refining [3][5]. - The U.S. has allocated $100 billion in loan authority to entice countries to join this coalition, which includes both traditional allies and resource-rich nations [5]. - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with nearly 70% of rare earth compounds sourced from abroad, particularly from China, making the goal of supply chain independence challenging [7][18]. Group 2: Argentina's Position - Argentina's Foreign Minister publicly stated that the agreement with the U.S. does not exclude Chinese investment in Argentine minerals, challenging the notion of a U.S.-led exclusive alliance [9][11]. - Argentina's relationship with China is crucial, as it is a significant lithium resource country and China's second-largest trading partner, with substantial Chinese investments in local energy and infrastructure [11][13]. - The Argentine stance reflects a broader sentiment among participating countries, indicating a desire to balance relationships rather than fully align with the U.S. against China [15][25]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The global supply chain for rare earths is highly interdependent, with countries seeking to maximize their economic benefits rather than strictly choosing sides [17][25]. - China's dominance in the rare earth sector is underscored by its control over 34% of global resources and 92% of refining capacity, creating significant barriers for the U.S. to replicate this industrial ecosystem [18][20]. - The U.S. attempts to manipulate market dynamics through political means, such as price floors and tariffs, which may disrupt the established supply chains tied to high-tech industries [23][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of oscillatory consolidation, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, with trading volume dropping to 305,300 lots and open interest increasing to 344,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio of net positions increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 820 lots to 34,597 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 135,500 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Currently, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, most enterprises have a low psychological purchase price, and the market inquiry and transaction are relatively light. Before the festival, liquidity tightens, policy expectations diverge, and potential macro - level disturbances may amplify market fluctuations through the emotional channel, and capital risk - aversion suppresses speculative demand [1] Fundamentals Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [2] Demand - Last week's data showed that the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [2] Inventory - SMM data showed that last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days rose to 11.8 days (a month - on - month increase of 9.26%), with passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [2] Macro - Policy - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, and will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. In the macro - environment, the central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]