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专家学者看2025中国经济增长点(经济形势理性看)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-11 22:24
Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the strengthening of economic leadership and the positive trend in economic performance, with macro policies working in coordination to boost social confidence and high-quality development [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending has become a new highlight, with final consumption expenditure contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1, accounting for over half of the economic growth [2][4] - Service consumption is emerging as a new driving force for economic growth, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, reaching 43.4% of total per capita consumption expenditure [4] Service Consumption Policies - A series of policies have been implemented to promote service consumption, including the "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" and the "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan" [3] - The growth in service consumption is supported by the expansion of service supply and improvement in service quality, meeting the personalized and quality demands of consumers [3] Digital Technology in Services - Digital technology plays a crucial role in expanding service consumption and optimizing its structure, with applications in healthcare and e-commerce enhancing service efficiency and consumer experience [5] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries, particularly in AI and biotechnology, are becoming key areas for developing new economic momentum, with high-tech industry fixed asset investment growing by 11.6% year-on-year [7][8] - The digital economy's core industries accounted for about 10% of GDP, with significant growth in digital industry revenue and infrastructure [8] Green Development - The green low-carbon industry is showing strong momentum, with Q1 production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 3.182 million and 3.075 million units, respectively, with a market share exceeding 40% [11][12] - The share of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing energy structure optimization [12] Foreign Trade - Foreign trade showed resilience, with Q1 goods trade reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase, and exports growing by 6.9% [14] - The diversification of foreign trade markets has reduced reliance on traditional markets, enhancing stability and adaptability in the face of external pressures [16][17] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector demonstrated strong resilience, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in value added, supported by robust growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing [18][19] - The integration of digital technology into manufacturing is accelerating, with significant growth in smart manufacturing and a focus on energy efficiency and environmental sustainability [20] Rural Development - The rural economy is showing positive growth, with agricultural value added increasing by 4.0% year-on-year, supported by the development of rural industries [22][25] - The focus on developing rural industries is expected to enhance agricultural value and increase farmers' income, contributing to overall economic stability [23][24]
突围向“新” “外贸第一大省”如何在风浪中破题
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-05-11 13:31
这场会议也颇有"功夫在诗外"的意味:遭受冲击的虽是外贸企业,但"解题者"却从不仅限于外贸企业。通过电商平台的流量、数据和技术优势,精准对接国 内的消费需求,能让广东的外贸优品也能顺利转场,同样是值得思考和借鉴的"破题之道"。 既问"短计",也问"长策":面临的是全新的市场和挑战,外贸大省广东如何着眼当下,以变应变?国际贸易环境疾风骤雨,广东又将如何在挑战中开好"顶 风船"? 5月9日,距离美国挑起所谓的"对等关税"正好一个月,"外贸第一大省"广东高规格召开了一场"特别"的座谈会。 "特别"之处在于会议主题和参会人员:15家企业中,有12家来自全国各大电商平台。会议主题则聚焦"电商平台助力内外贸一体化"。 "内循环"里看韧性:风浪中如何"转场"? "从长远来看,外贸企业需要注重产能转化。"与会的平台企业负责人黄晓敏认为,外贸企业需要将目光转向国内,就要求外贸企业找准定位和相应产品。 适应新环境,作出新变化。对一路从风浪中走来的广东外贸企业而言,产能转化不仅意味着市场环境的转变,更意味着市场策略的深度转变。在众多转型行 业中,就有一条来自广东本土成长起来的"鱼","游"出了新的天地。 如果不是"关税战",可能连很 ...
宽信贷、稳订单、拓市场,多部门助力外贸企业转型
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-09 12:38
华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 张智 北京报道 面对越演越烈的关税战,我国政府部门以"内外贸一体化""加强信贷支持"等多个角度全方位缓解外贸企业压力。 近日,金融监管总局局长李云泽在国新办举办的发布会上表示,在当前外部冲击影响加大的背景下,金融监管总 局将制定实施银行业保险业护航外贸发展系列政策措施,按照市场化、法治化原则,从金融方面持续加大支持力 度。对于外贸依存度较高的企业,除了"不断贷、不抽贷"之外,我国还增供给,继续做深做实融资协调工作机 制,加大首贷、续贷、信用贷投放,带动普惠型小微企业贷款增速高于各项贷款的平均增速。 "中国进出口银行披露,今年一季度,进出口银行投放对外贸易领域贷款超过3000亿元,对外贸易领域贷款余额达 2.4万亿元,这个规模的投入,对于支持和稳定外贸的增长起到了非常重要的作用。"澳洲会计师公会华北区委员 会会长彭飞对《华夏时报》记者表示。 与此同时,商务部也在稳步推进内外贸一体化工作,在市场准入、渠道开拓、财政金融、服务保障等方面加大对 外贸企业拓内销的帮助力度,促进内外贸渠道对接、品牌对接、产销对接、标准对接。 不仅如此,在地方,内外贸一体化的支持 ...
安徽多举措稳外贸拓内销 “外贸产品展销专区”受青睐
news flash· 2025-05-09 06:27
为促进外贸稳定增长,助力外贸企业加速转内销,安徽各地积极行动、以变应变,通过拓展市场、加大 补贴等一系列举措,助力外贸企业发展。为帮助外贸企业快速打开国内市场,安徽省积极牵头协调,成 立徽派企业商贸流通合作联盟,举办外贸企业拓内销对接会等。此外,当地还通过搭建"数字桥梁",推 出"源头工厂直播""24小时极速入驻"等专项措施,为外贸企业开拓国内市场按下"快进键",推动"出口 品质"加速转化为"内销优势"。在合肥市的这家超市"外贸产品展销专区",货架上整齐摆放着琳琅满目 的日用品和食品。这些原本出口海外的优质商品,受到了不少市民的青睐。(央视新闻) ...
“外贸优品 质敬中国”2025首届出口转内销商品博览会正式启动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 03:51
首届出口转内销商品博览会将于2025年6月27日至29日在北京展览馆举办。作为国内首个整合外贸产业 链及国内流通渠道资源的展会,本届博览会以 "外贸优品 质敬中国"为主题,以"链内赋能 品质焕新"为 使命,在"双循环"新发展格局下,通过政策引导与市场机制协同,为中国外贸转型升级注入强劲动力。 本届博览会由新浪财经主办,阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、抖音电商联合主办,创新性整合头部电商平台 资源,突破行业壁垒,凝聚多方势能。通过首创"线上线下融合办展"模式,博览会搭建起外贸企业与国 内流通渠道直连的高效平台,首次实现全球贸易智慧与国内市场需求的深度对接。这一举措不仅是应对 当前国际经贸环境变化的主动作为,更是落实国务院《关于支持出口产品转内销的实施意见》的关键实 践,实现从"单向输出"向"双向循环"的战略转型。 【点击此处报名参加展会】 当前,全球贸易格局正经历深刻变革,以美国关税政策为代表的贸易壁垒,致使我国部分外向型企业对 美出口订单大幅缩减。在此形势下,多家外贸企业主动寻求内销转型,充分凸显我国外贸产业结构调整 与市场拓展的紧迫性。与此同时,数字化、在线化贸易模式加速向产业链各环节渗透,国内消费市场对 高品质、 ...
一揽子举措护航民企发展壮大
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-09 01:41
Core Points - The National People's Congress has passed the "Private Economy Promotion Law," effective from May 20, 2025, aimed at providing legal support for the high-quality development of the private economy [1] Group 1: Support for Private Enterprises - The law encourages private enterprises to participate in major national projects and strategic emerging industries, enhancing their role in technological innovation and modern industrial systems [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is establishing a long-term mechanism for private enterprises to engage in significant project construction, with private capital already accounting for 20% in some nuclear power projects [2] - A total investment of approximately 3 trillion yuan is planned for key areas such as transportation, energy, and urban infrastructure this year [2] Group 2: Financial Support and Innovation - The Financial Regulatory Administration is improving financial service models for technology and innovation, with 74 private equity funds established to support tech enterprises [4] - By the end of Q1 this year, loans to high-tech enterprises reached 17.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [4] - Measures have been introduced to support small and micro private enterprises in foreign trade, with export credit insurance exceeding 240 billion USD in Q1 [5]
物价率先反应外需变化——4月经济数据前瞻
一瑜中的· 2025-05-08 14:33
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in April, economic indicators will reflect changes influenced by external demand, with a potential state of "stable volume and weak price" expected in the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Import Trends - Export resilience is indicated by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container throughput at monitored Chinese ports as of April 27, compared to 8.9% in March [4] - Container shipping capacity from China to the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in April, down from 19.1% in March, suggesting some downward pressure on direct exports to the U.S. [4] - U.S. imports are expected to rise, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in overall import value as of April 24, compared to 0.1% at the end of March [4][11] - Vietnam's imports in early April increased by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting a "import grabbing" effect [4][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - Retail sales growth is projected at around 5.3% in April, supported by the "trade-in for new" policy, with specific growth rates of 5.0% for dining and automotive sectors [5][13] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to April, with real estate investment declining by 10.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.0% [5][14] Group 3: Financial Indicators - New social financing in April is expected to be around 660 billion, an increase of 1 trillion compared to the same period last year, with a social financing stock growth rate of approximately 8.6% [6][17] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by 2.1% [6][17] Group 4: Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to be around -3% year-on-year in April, influenced by declining prices of major commodities such as copper and crude oil [7][19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around -0.2% year-on-year, with food prices projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month [8][18]
外贸优品“转内销” 内外循环加速畅通
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-08 13:23
Group 1 - The article highlights the disruption of global trade order due to the excessive imposition of tariffs by the United States, prompting various departments and industry associations to assist foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic markets to navigate challenges [1] - The "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" initiative has been launched in multiple locations since mid-April, with e-commerce platforms facilitating rapid onboarding for foreign trade companies and local chambers of commerce organizing production and sales matching activities [3][5] - A significant turnout of over 52,000 attendees was reported at the "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" event in Nanjing, indicating strong interest and engagement from consumers [5] Group 2 - The article discusses the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic sales, emphasizing the need to adapt to different consumer habits and preferences between domestic and international markets [13] - Companies are increasingly training their foreign trade teams to operate on domestic e-commerce platforms, with expectations that domestic sales could account for 80-90% of total sales by the end of the year [14] - Financial support measures are being implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments to assist foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales and integrating domestic and foreign trade [16][18] Group 3 - The article mentions the establishment of a collaborative ecosystem for integrated domestic and foreign trade, with innovative models being developed in Yiwu to combine domestic channels with cross-border supply chains [23] - Statistics indicate that nearly 85% of export-oriented enterprises in China are also engaged in domestic sales, with domestic sales accounting for nearly 75% of total sales [29] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is expected to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain, drive value chain upgrades, and stimulate domestic demand [30]
广交会出口成交254.4亿美元,关税冲击下外贸订单不减反增!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 13:14
Core Insights - The 137th Canton Fair showcased a significant increase in foreign buyers, with 280,000 overseas purchasers from 219 countries and regions, marking a 17.3% rise compared to last year, indicating strong global interest in "Made in China" products despite ongoing U.S. tariffs [1] - Chinese enterprises secured $25.44 billion in intended export orders, a 3% increase year-on-year, with over 60% of the transaction volume coming from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, reflecting the expansion of China's foreign trade network [1] - The fair highlighted a surge in demand for traditional products like toys and textiles, as well as a notable increase in inquiries for smart and eco-friendly products, showcasing the adaptability of Chinese manufacturers [1] Trade Challenges - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. in April has caused significant challenges for Chinese exporters, particularly those reliant on the North American market, leading to inventory buildup and halted production in some factories [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has emphasized the need for integrated domestic and foreign trade strategies to assist exporters facing obstacles, promoting online and offline channels to facilitate access to the domestic market [3] Market Adaptation - Some foreign trade companies have successfully transitioned to domestic sales, with notable examples including Shuguang Toothbrush Factory selling 2 million units through e-commerce platforms and Jiamili Ceramic's sales exceeding 20,000 yuan on the first day of their promotion [5] - However, challenges remain for many exporters in adapting products for the domestic market, including brand development and supply chain adjustments [5] Diplomatic Developments - Following the Canton Fair, there were indications of a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, with China agreeing to engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff issues, signaling a willingness to negotiate [5] Future Outlook - The resilience of China's foreign trade sector is underscored by its ability to innovate and explore new markets, suggesting that with continued innovation and market engagement, the industry can navigate current pressures and emerge stronger [7]
外贸企业拓内销按下“快进键”
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 08:59
"和外贸企业接洽时,我们注意到,消化库存、回笼资金,寻找国内市场定位是不少企业的急切诉求; 而不熟悉国内规则、缺乏线上运营经验是企业面临的共性难题。"1688商家发展中心总经理王强表示, 为助力外贸企业转型,1688制定了"春雷计划2025",从包销库存、提供贷款、推动转型、减免年费、开 放AI产品等五方面助力外贸企业拓内销。其中,对于资金紧张的外贸厂商,1688将提供订单货款提前 回款服务,并联合网商银行等金融机构提供专项信用贷款。 新华财经北京5月8日电(记者丁雅雯、朱程)"在国际经贸环境波动与外部挑战增加的背景下,我们将 坚定发展内贸业务。一方面,通过电商、外贸优品内销对接活动等渠道消化库存;另一方面,面向附加 值较高的国内市场创新产品,并广泛参与商超的招投标。"浙江众鑫环保科技集团股份有限公司负责人 滕步相说。 记者了解到,面对充满不确定性的国际环境,不少外贸企业调整方向,大力开拓国内市场。他们借 助"外贸优品中华行"、电商等渠道实现了去库存、寻找市场定位等目标,拓内销按下"快进键"。 "国际经贸环境的波动起伏让我们有些措手不及,国内市场将成为未来重点。我们计划先通过电商平台 消化库存、回笼资金,后续 ...