一月春季行情延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 27 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 挖掘经济潜能，股市慢牛延续 2025.12.12 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流 动性等因素影响。（1）春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响 1 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影响 1 月 A 股走势的核心因素：首先，积极的政策和外部事件可能导致上证综指上涨， 如 2019 ...

Group 1 - The UK government announced that defense export transactions will exceed £20 billion (approximately 189.5 billion RMB) by 2025, marking the highest level in over 40 years. This record is attributed to several major defense cooperation agreements, including a £10 billion (approximately 94.8 billion RMB) deal with Norway for the construction of at least five Type 26 frigates, which is the largest naval export transaction in UK history [2] Group 2 - Tianjin has launched the "2026 New Spring Consumption Season" with over 1,000 promotional activities aimed at boosting consumption across various sectors, including food, accommodation, transportation, and retail. The campaign will run throughout the first quarter of 2026, focusing on key events such as New Year's and the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - Srey New Materials stated that its liquid rocket engine thrust chamber is a critical component of the engine, requiring materials with excellent high-temperature resistance and thermal conductivity to ensure proper engine operation during rocket launches [4] Group 4 - The "Artificial Intelligence and Food Safety Risk Governance" research results were released in Beijing, showcasing platforms for food safety supervision and digital transformation guidelines for food industries. The event highlighted seven research outcomes, including the "2025 China Food Safety Status Research Report" [6] Group 5 - The China Industrial Internet Research Institute has officially released an industrial data resource database, which aggregates key data on materials, components, and processes to support industrial AI model training. The database includes 230 million digital industrial products, 180,000 raw material specifications, 35 terabytes of real-time equipment operation data, and 300,000 process data entries [7] Group 6 - Shengyuan Environmental Protection received a warning letter from the Xiamen Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to timely disclose significant losses from a private equity product subscribed by its subsidiary, which violated information disclosure regulations [8] Group 7 - Suzhou Tongxin Medical Technology Co., Ltd. has had its IPO application accepted by the Science and Technology Innovation Board, aiming to raise 1.064 billion RMB for projects related to implantable left ventricular assist systems and working capital [9] Group 8 - National grain procurement has exceeded 200 million tons, an increase of 3.2 million tons compared to the same period last year, marking the highest level in recent years. The procurement progress for various grains, including indica rice and corn, is reported to be on track [10] Group 9 - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, including Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, announced production cuts due to high upstream raw material prices and cost pressures. The production adjustments are described as necessary maintenance and do not affect overall order fulfillment [11] Group 10 - Greebo stated that its commercial cleaning robots are in the pre-mass production testing and optimization phase, focusing on adapting to complex commercial scenarios and ensuring performance stability before market launch [12] Group 11 - A lawsuit involving a subsidiary of Xinwangda, claiming quality issues with delivered battery cells, has been filed for over 2.314 billion RMB. The case has been accepted by the Ningbo Intermediate People's Court [13]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's defense budget for the fiscal year 2026 is set to exceed 9 trillion yen, marking a historical high and continuing a trend of 14 consecutive years of military spending increases [1] Group 1: Defense Budget Overview - The initial defense budget for fiscal year 2026 accounts for 7.4% of Japan's total general account expenditures and 10.8% of tax revenue, indicating that over 10 yen of every 100 yen in tax revenue will be allocated to military spending [1] - In fiscal year 2025, Japan's defense spending reached 11 trillion yen, which is approximately three times the per capita defense spending of China for 2025, positioning Japan as the fifth-largest military spender globally [1] - Japan's military expenditure has doubled in just 3 to 4 years, a growth rate not seen since World War II [1] Group 2: Funding and Economic Implications - Japan's defense budget heavily relies on national debt, which exceeds 260% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of such military investments [1] - The government is seeking to boost the domestic economy through arms exports, aiming to finance military spending via the defense industry [1] Group 3: Military Strategy and Regional Implications - The focus of Japan's defense spending will shift towards offensive capabilities, including long-range missiles, attack drones, and space warfare equipment, with plans to procure U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles and upgrade anti-ship missiles [1] - Japan is actively fortifying military bases in the southwestern islands, indicating ambitions for military intervention in the Taiwan Strait through its alliance with the U.S. [1] - The international community is increasingly wary of Japan's militarization and potential resurgence of militarism, necessitating a multi-faceted response from China to enhance its own defense capabilities and regional stability [1]

Core Insights - The UK government announced that defense export transactions will exceed £20 billion (approximately 189.5 billion RMB) in 2025, marking the highest level in over 40 years of recorded history [1][2] Group 1: Major Defense Contracts - A significant contract was signed between the UK and Norway for the construction of at least five Type 26 frigates, valued at £10 billion (approximately 94.8 billion RMB), representing the largest naval export deal in UK history [1] - The UK will export 20 Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey, with a transaction value of £8 billion (approximately 75.8 billion RMB), marking the largest fighter jet export order in decades [1] - Additionally, the UK will export 12 C-130 transport aircraft to Turkey, with a transaction value exceeding £550 million (approximately 5.21 billion RMB) [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The UK government stated that the 2025 defense export achievements fulfill the goal of driving the defense industry as an economic growth engine, as outlined in the Strategic Defense Review [2] - In 2026, the UK will continue to promote defense exports, focusing on advanced fighter jets, new maritime technologies, and "Boxer" armored personnel carriers, while further expanding its global partner network [2]

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally is likely to continue in January, with A-shares expected to show a strong upward trend, driven by technology growth and certain cyclical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - Historical data indicates that when the spring market rally starts early, A-shares tend to perform strongly in January, influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity [2]. - Key factors affecting A-share performance in January include positive policies and external events, which can lead to an increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, as seen in past instances like the easing of US-China trade tensions in 2019 and the optimization of pandemic policies in 2023 [2]. - Liquidity plays a crucial role in January's A-share performance; a loose liquidity environment may lead to an increase in A-shares, while tight liquidity could result in weaker performance [2]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Outlook - Positive policy expectations are anticipated to rise in January, with potential announcements of provincial "14th Five-Year" plans and consumer stimulus measures [3]. - Global central banks are expected to continue easing, and the relationship between China and the US is likely to remain stable, with limited external risks [3]. - Economic recovery is expected to continue, albeit weakly, with corporate profit growth likely to improve, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance Expectations - Technology growth and certain cyclical industries are expected to outperform in January, driven by upward trends in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, and demand for non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4]. - Historical analysis shows that when the spring market rally begins early, technology growth sectors tend to perform relatively better in January [4]. - The upcoming themes in January, such as commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion, are expected to catalyze market interest [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for January, focusing on technology growth, cyclical sectors, and consumer industries [5]. - Specific sectors suggested for investment include machinery (robots), military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), and media (AI applications, gaming) [5]. - There is potential for recovery in brokerage firms and consumer sectors (food, retail, and social services) that may see marginal improvements in fundamentals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with significant capital inflow into the CSI A500-related ETFs, while certain industry-themed ETFs, particularly in the military sector, faced substantial outflows [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 9.73 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 4.05 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 5.68 trillion yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 1.88% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89 points, up 3.53% [2]. - A total of 380.69 billion yuan net inflow was recorded for stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs, with broad-based index ETFs seeing a net inflow of 490 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Outflows - The CSI A500-related ETFs experienced a net inflow of 493 billion yuan this week [5]. - In contrast, 64 industry-themed ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding 1 billion yuan, with significant losses in military-related ETFs [13]. - The top ten large-scale broad-based index ETFs collectively faced a net outflow of 17.85 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 ETF alone seeing a net outflow of 34.08 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Industry Themes - Industry-themed ETFs such as satellite, new energy, and gaming ETFs attracted significant capital, with net inflows of 15.51 billion yuan, 13.04 billion yuan, and 11.92 billion yuan respectively [10]. - Conversely, military-related ETFs faced substantial outflows, with the military leader ETF and military ETF seeing reductions of 26.66 billion and 12.48 billion shares, respectively, resulting in net outflows of 19.42 billion yuan and 16.11 billion yuan [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that the recent capital inflow into the CSI A500 index reflects a strategic positioning by long-term capital in anticipation of structural market changes [22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as macroeconomic data impacts diminish, liquidity and risk appetite will increasingly influence the market, potentially leading to a "spring rally" characterized by significant index movements [9]. - The upcoming launch of two new ETFs tracking Hong Kong stocks and AI-related sectors is expected to attract additional investor interest [23].

Group 1 - The Taiwan issue is a core interest of China, and any external interference is considered a red line that cannot be crossed [1] - The Chinese government and people are committed to safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, viewing Taiwan as an inseparable part of China [1] - Any actions aimed at splitting the country will face strong opposition from the Chinese populace and will be judged by history [1] Group 2 - The recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, including the "HIMARS" long-range rocket system, is viewed as a blatant provocation and a betrayal of commitments [2] - This arms sale is characterized as the largest and most severe, breaking the boundaries of the U.S.'s own "Taiwan Relations Act" [2] - China has responded by placing 20 military companies and 10 executives on a sanctions list, freezing assets and banning cooperation [2] Group 3 - China's capability and determination to protect its core interests are demonstrated through military displays and its industrial strength [3] - The country possesses the world's strongest shipbuilding capacity and a large missile force, capable of addressing potential threats [3] - Economic cooperation and modernization efforts are being emphasized as a means to share development opportunities with Taiwan [3] Group 4 - China's rise is framed as a return of peaceful power rather than a threat, with core interests focused on national dignity rather than expansion [4] - The U.S. is urged to cease its dangerous actions of arming Taiwan and sending incorrect signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [4] - China is prepared to use all necessary means to defend its sovereignty and development interests, indicating that the costs of provoking China will exceed expectations [4]

12月26日，三大指数继续上涨，沪指录得8连阳，年末重返4000点或势在必得。两市成交额2.18万亿元，创12月新高。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 159876 | 有色ETF华宝 | | 0.991 | 0.036 | 3.77% | | 2 | 516020 | 化工ETF | | 0.871 | 0.019 | 2.23% | | 3 | 562010 | 绿色能源ETF | | 1.005 | 0.019 | 1.93% | | 4 | 159231 | 通用航空ETF华宝 | | 0.641 | 0.009 | 1.42% | | 5 | 516380 | 智能电动车ETF | 1 | 1.025 | 0.013 | 1.28% | | 6 | 512810 | 军工ETF华宇 | The Real Property of Children | 0.771 | 0.008 | 1.05% | | 7 | N2000 | 券商ETF | | 0.588 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600118 股票简称：中国卫星 编号：临2025-034 中国东方红卫星股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 股价短期涨幅过大的风险。公司股票自2025年12月3日以来收盘价格累计上涨幅度为91.43%，同期申 万军工行业涨幅13.70%，上证A指涨幅2.19%，公司股票短期涨幅高于同期行业及上证指数涨幅，处于 历史相对高点，但公司基本面未发生重大变化，存在市场情绪过热的情形。敬请广大投资者注意二级市 场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ● 经营相关风险。2024年度公司营业收入同比减少25.06%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少 82.28%。2025年1-9月归属于上市公司股东的净利润1481.14万元，2025年1-9月毛利率9.62%，归母净利 率0.48%，公司盈利水平相对有限。公司特别提醒投资者注意经营相关风险。 ● 估值偏高的风险。公司最新滚动市盈率为1646.18，最新市净率为14.9 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $11.8 billion in October 2025, bringing its total to $688.7 billion, the lowest level since 2008, marking a strategic withdrawal that has seen nearly half of its holdings cut since the peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 [1] - The total US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, which is more than military spending, indicating a potential "Ponzi scheme" characteristic of what was once considered a safe asset [1] - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5-3.75%, a move seen as a desperate measure to manage debt rather than a standard economic stimulus [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve for larger and faster rate cuts, with each 1% cut potentially saving the government nearly $400 billion in interest payments, highlighting the political challenges to the Fed's independence [3][5] - The market's confidence in US Treasuries is waning, evidenced by a failed 20-year bond auction in May 2025, where yields surged to 5.047%, reflecting extreme distrust in long-term US debt [5] - Global capital is reassessing the risks associated with US Treasuries, with Canada reducing its holdings by $56.7 billion in October 2025, the largest monthly decline of the year [5] Group 3 - China is strategically reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, which reached 2,292 tons by March 2025, with a significant monthly import of 127.5 tons in April, up 73% year-on-year [7] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is progressing, with the CIPS system connecting 1,729 institutions across 189 countries, and Renminbi settlements in Southeast Asia coal trade exceeding 30% [7] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement supports local currency transactions, allowing Chinese exports to Southeast Asia without needing to convert to US dollars, gradually eroding the dollar's dominance in the region [7] Group 4 - The US-China trade consensus reached at the end of 2025 reflects a pragmatic choice under pressure, as various stakeholders in the US oppose tax increases, emphasizing the importance of maintaining low-cost imports to control inflation [8] - China's export controls on critical metals and rare earths are impacting the US high-end military supply chain, with significant delays in production for companies like Lockheed Martin [10] - The Federal Reserve's plan to restart a $40 billion monthly bond purchase program is seen as a self-financing scheme, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt without foreign buyers [10] Group 5 - China's trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a growing demand for Renminbi to purchase Chinese goods, with its share in cross-border trade settlements rising to 5.8% [10] - The digital Renminbi is making strides in cross-border applications, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, which could enhance settlement efficiency and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system [12] - The US consumer confidence index has dropped to 52.9, a 30% decline year-on-year, with a significant portion of the population reporting worsened financial conditions due to high prices, painting a contrasting picture of the US economy [12] Group 6 - China is adopting a gradual approach to reducing its US Treasury holdings, opting for a strategy of "not renewing" maturing bonds at a pace of $50-80 billion annually, signaling caution without causing market volatility [13] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, contrasting with the decline in US Treasury holdings, indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization" in reserve management [13] - In the context of Fed rate cuts and global sell-offs of US debt, China benefits from a complete industrial chain, diversified reserves, and a large domestic market, providing greater strategic flexibility [13]