A股军工板块盘初拉升，陕西华达涨超10%，雷科防务涨停，中国卫通、晨曦航空、中国卫星纷纷上 扬。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, focusing on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2]. Economic Outlook - A series of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to support a moderate economic recovery, enhancing liquidity and providing strong support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The market is anticipated to show a trend of oscillating upward, with improved supply-demand structures across various industries [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities and emerging sectors, with an emphasis on safety and strategic industries supported by policies [6][7]. - The approach of "digging deep for Alpha while waiting for Beta" is recommended to navigate the market [7]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as essential for China's development path [5][6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity, with a strong alignment between market pricing and fundamentals [7][8]. Specific Industry Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry, characterized by substantial market potential and policy support, making it a long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The military industry is expected to experience an upward phase due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the centenary of the army, providing additional growth signals [8]. - The domestic IP operation market is evolving, with companies establishing comprehensive industry chain layouts, indicating potential for overseas expansion [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with strong performance in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, steel, cement, and coal, while communication equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer electronics lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed signs of adjustment, with the majority of Federal Reserve members expecting a rate cut later this year, while the U.S. economy remains robust [2] - Domestic manufacturing PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, reflecting resilience in the Chinese economy [2] - Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to significantly impact individual stock performance, reinforcing the importance of earnings in market dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the so-called "reconciliation agreement" between the US and China is more of a public relations effort by the US rather than a genuine resolution of deep-seated economic conflicts [1][8] - The agreement primarily focuses on China's expedited rare earth exports to the US in exchange for the US lifting trade restrictions, highlighting the US's strategic dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies [1][3] - The US Secretary of Commerce confirmed that the agreement is essentially a refinement of the Geneva consensus from May, rather than a new comprehensive trade deal, indicating a contradiction in the US's portrayal of the negotiations [1][3] Group 2 - China's response to the agreement emphasizes procedural justice and the need for official confirmation, indicating that the export of rare earths will not be unrestricted and that China has alternative supply agreements in place [3][6] - The US is under significant domestic pressure to demonstrate progress in trade negotiations, particularly with upcoming midterm elections, which may influence its approach to tariffs and trade agreements [5][6] - The core issues of the trade conflict remain unresolved, with the US retaining additional tariffs on certain products and China insisting that unilateral tariffs violate WTO rules, suggesting that the potential for renewed tensions exists [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant sector rotation despite the index showing a narrow range of fluctuations, indicating underlying volatility [1] - The banking sector has played a stabilizing role in the market, contributing positively to the index performance [1][2] - The implementation of policies aimed at reducing internal competition has provided new market excitement, particularly in industries facing price declines [1][3] Group 2 - The photovoltaic equipment industry is reportedly reducing production by 30%, which may help balance supply and demand, leading to price stabilization [2] - The steel industry, characterized by low profit margins and some companies operating at a loss, is also showing signs of recovery, potentially influenced by the positive sentiment from the photovoltaic sector [2][3] - Other sectors such as coal, building materials, and real estate are also experiencing upward movement, suggesting a broader market recovery [2] Group 3 - The current market conditions suggest limited downside risk for the index, with structural opportunities remaining evident [3] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance companies, have been crucial in stabilizing the index during downturns [4] - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing stocks that have recently surged, as some sectors may experience corrections [4]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数集体下跌，创业板指跌超1%，科技板块下跌，发生了什么？ 2、 中国经济"半年报"即将发布，外资纷纷上调 今明两年的中国经济增速预测，看好这些板块。 3、 A股周期板块逆势上涨，后市风格会切换吗？基金该如何做好配置应对波动？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1378 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数集体收跌，创业板指跌幅超过了1%，有超3200只个股下跌。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/2，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额出现缩量，为1.38万亿元，盘面上，钢铁、光伏、煤炭等周期板块逆势上涨，通信、军工、半导体等板块跌幅居前。 分析人士认为， 预计短期A股市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 A股下跌原因，依然有积极信号 虽然 今日市场出现调整，但结构性机会和积极信号依然存在。 1、A股下跌原因。 科技板块拖累 ：AI算力硬件、消费电子等泛科技领域回调，部分高估值题材股遭资金抛售，影响了情绪，对创业板指也造成了拖累。 外围市场传导 ：隔夜美股纳指下跌0.82%，特斯拉因政策风险跌超5%，间接压制A股新能源及科技板块。 资金 ...

国泰海通证券 6 月基金表现回顾 [Table_Authors] 魏玮(分析师) 重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优 本报告导读： 2025 年 6 月，A 股上涨，债市上涨，美股上涨，油价上涨，金价调整。基金方 面，部分重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优。 投资要点： 2025 年 6 月基金业绩回顾 基金研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.02 | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040123 | | | 庄梓恺(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040038 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基 金 研 究 基 金 月 报 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月资本市场回顾 股票市场：A 股上涨，TMT、军工、有色等行业表现较优。2025 年 6 月，5 月制造业 PMI 环比上升带动 A 股上行，但受中东局势影响， 市场于月中承压调整，后在伊以宣布正式停火、央行等六部门联合 发布《关于金融支持提振 ...

据韩联社：波兰完成了与韩国现代Rotem公司的谈判，接收第二批K2坦克。 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Xibu Superconductor (688122) has a comprehensive score of 63.31, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following prices: current main cost at 51.16 yuan, 5-day main cost at 51.23 yuan, 20-day main cost at 49.36 yuan, and 60-day main cost at 48.64 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the stock has not experienced any limit-up or limit-down events [1] Group 2 - The stock's short-term resistance is at 52.13 yuan, while the short-term support is at 50.06 yuan; the mid-term resistance is also at 52.13 yuan, with mid-term support at 47.13 yuan [2] - The current short-term and mid-term trends are unclear, awaiting direction from main funds [2][3] - On July 2, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 874.85 million yuan, accounting for -2% of the total transaction amount [2] Group 3 - The latest financial data shows earnings per share at 0.26 yuan, operating profit at 2.14 billion yuan, and net profit at approximately 186.74 million yuan [2][3] - The sales gross margin is reported at 35.288% [2] - The stock is associated with sectors such as non-ferrous metals (0.74%), new materials (-0.24%), military industry (-1.11%), and large aircraft (-1.29%) [2]