1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - Due to resource - structural issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply of overseas iron ore is fluctuating at a high level with a marginal decline, and the demand side is gradually recovering after the end of production restrictions [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities has not ended, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the phased callback pressure of prices under the expectation of macro - recession and the high - volatility attribute under the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector is under relatively low pressure, and the withdrawal of funds that previously long - allocated non - ferrous metals and short - allocated black metals may support the prices of the black sector to some extent [9][14]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese ore end and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound are insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the cost providing strong support in the short term. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate and find a bottom, with the current fundamentals being weak [17][20]. - Float glass is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and soda ash is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation trend [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 49,286 tons, a net increase of 7,610 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.3872 million lots, a net decrease of 62,026 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3297 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 522,795 tons, a net increase of 48,799 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0982 million lots, a net decrease of 44,974 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Strategy Views - The real - estate data from January to February was still weak, and the support of the real - estate sector for steel demand was limited in the short term. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered quickly, and the inventory entered the destocking stage. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The overall steel fundamentals were in a "weak balance" state [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 815.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.99% (+ 8.00). The position changed by + 3294 lots to 450,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 880,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.39 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.82% [3]. Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained basically stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly in Hebei after the end of production restrictions, and it was expected that the pig - iron output would continue to rise. The port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased. Affected by resource - structural issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices oscillated at a high level [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 20, affected by the typhoon, the manganese - silicon futures strengthened significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) once rose above 6600 yuan/ton or nearly 7% during the session and then gave back some gains in the late session, finally closing up 3.43% at 6400 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6200 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6390 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) followed the sentiment of manganese silicon and rose, closing up 1.85% at 5932 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the futures price [7]. Strategy Views - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but most of these factors had been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market would be affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese ore end and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 20, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.99% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1272.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 101.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1304.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 133.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 44 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1740.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1725.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - In the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound of coking coal and coke were insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, coking coal prices were still optimistic, especially from June to October. However, the high volatility of oil and gas would also bring high volatility to coking coal prices [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8455 yuan/ton, with a change of + 2.05% (+ 170). The weighted contract position changed by - 4914 lots to 374,013 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 645 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 345 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures - market price [16]. - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 37,765 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.04% (- 785). The weighted contract position changed by + 340 lots to 51,255 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 42 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 43.5 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5735 yuan/ton [18][19]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon continued to rise slightly, and the demand improvement was weak. The cost could provide strong support in the short term, and the price was expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of polysilicon were weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to oscillate and find a bottom [17][20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1065 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (- 1) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, a net decrease of 1.413 million cases (- 1.86%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 4049 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 25,370 lots [22]. - On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1217 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+ 6) from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1207 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, a net decrease of 77,900 tons (- 1.86%) from the previous week, including 890,700 tons of heavy - soda - ash inventory, a net decrease of 27,400 tons, and 963,100 tons of light - soda - ash inventory, a net decrease of 50,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 1998 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 6617 lots [24]. Strategy Views - For float glass, the supply contraction provided some support, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase. It was expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. For soda ash, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory decreased slightly. It was expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation trend [23][25].

2026 年 3 月 23 日 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产地价格 | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 585.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | | | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 528.0 | 2.0 | 58.0 | | | 陕西榆林5800 | 元/吨 | 599.0 | 7.0 | 70.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 735.0 | 6.0 | 62.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 652.0 | 6.0 | 62.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 572.0 | 7.0 | 54.0 | | 海外价格 | 印尼FOB Q3800 | 美元/吨 | 59.8 | 0.0 | 8.8 | | | 澳大利亚FOB Q5500 | 美元/吨 | 85.8 | 0.0 | ...

2026 年 03 月 23 日 商 品 研 焦炭：市场情绪发酵，震荡偏强 焦煤：市场情绪发酵，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1171 | 11.5 | 1.0% | | | | 12605 | 1740. 5 | 19.5 | 1.1% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 753774 | 384256 | -7338 | | | | J2605 | 14432 | 31289 | 3d | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1470 | 1470 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1468 | 1468 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1254 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.32%, falling over 50 points at the open, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also opened lower by 1.78% and 1.54% respectively [4][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3900-point mark during trading, and the ChiNext Index dropped below 3300 points [5] Sector Performance - The coal sector showed resilience, becoming one of the main highlights of the market, with multiple stocks in the sector rising over 5%, including Liaoning Energy, which hit the daily limit [2][7] - In contrast, the non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, communication, and electronics sectors led the decline, with the non-ferrous metals sector dropping over 3%, and several gold stocks, including Chifeng Jilong Gold, hitting the daily limit down [6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.93% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.9%, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a decline of around 3% at one point [8][9] - Notable declines in Hong Kong included China Hongqiao down over 9% and Laopu Gold down over 8%, while stocks like Geely Automobile and CNOOC saw gains [9] Company Highlights - Chifeng Jilong Gold's Hong Kong stock plummeted over 25% during trading [10] - Guoxia Technology experienced a significant increase, with a rise of over 12% after announcing that its revenue, net profit, and cash flow from operating activities are expected to grow by over 100% for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, compared to the previous year [10][11] - The substantial growth in Guoxia Technology's performance is attributed to the booming global energy storage market, driven by the explosion of multi-scenario applications, increasing demand for grid frequency regulation services, and rapid growth in AI computing infrastructure [10]

焦煤焦炭周报 2026 年 3 月 23 日 能源替代传导 焦煤大幅拉涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 赵奕 从业资格号：F03153902 投资咨询号：Z0023788 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 (2)涨跌=周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； (3)涨跌幅=（周五收盘价-上周五收盘价）/上周五收盘价*100%； 数据来源：iFinD，铜冠金源期货 ⚫ 下游：上周高炉复产加速，铁水产量转增，原料需求回 升。钢厂的焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量平稳，库存增 加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化利润大幅转好，焦企开工持稳，焦炭产量增 加，下游采买增加，库存继续下降。全国平均吨焦盈利 +38（环比+4 ...

Market Trends - Recent increase in U.S. Treasury yields due to rising oil prices has pressured liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and the tech sector[1] - The current market adjustment reflects a contraction in risk appetite rather than a deterioration in fundamentals[10] PPI and Earnings Outlook - PPI turning positive is expected to boost A-share earnings, with a projected increase in non-financial net profit growth from 11% under neutral assumptions to 17% under optimistic scenarios for 2026[2] - The contribution of cyclical resources and manufacturing to overall A-share profits is significant, accounting for 45% of non-financial profits over the past five years[2] Index and Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has retraced approximately 64% from its peak, nearing historical pullback levels seen in previous bull markets[3] - Current valuations remain high, with the Shanghai Composite PE-TTM at 16.6x and the overall A-share market at 22.6x, both around the 75th percentile of the last 20 years[3] Key Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and oil price trends are critical, with three scenarios outlined: easing, maintaining, and escalating tensions in the Middle East affecting market liquidity and asset prices[4] - Changes in domestic and external demand are crucial, with recent data indicating a shift towards stronger domestic demand, particularly in real estate[4] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on low-volatility assets, while maintaining a strategic emphasis on cyclical resources throughout the year[9] - Structural opportunities in inflation-benefiting sectors, particularly upstream industries, are highlighted as key areas for investment[4]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a coking coal daily report from the Black Team of the Research Center, dated March 23, 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1468.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 15.00, and a yearly increase of 16.05% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1063.00, with a daily decrease of 10.00, a weekly decrease of 27.00, a monthly increase of 48.00, and a yearly increase of 23.60% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1420.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 20.00, and a yearly increase of 12.70% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1470.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and a yearly increase of 15.75% [2] Futures Prices - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1162.00, with a daily decrease of 5.00, a weekly decrease of 19.00, a monthly increase of 37.50, and a yearly increase of 12.54% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1276.50, with a daily decrease of 0.50, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly increase of 73.00, and a yearly increase of 15.83% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1483.50, with a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 105.00, and a yearly increase of 28.50% [2] Group 3: Inventory Information - The total inventory is 3754.41, with a weekly decrease of 169.44 and a yearly decrease of 10.70% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 254.09, with a weekly decrease of 23.59, a monthly increase of 2.47, and a yearly decrease of 31.82% [2] - The port inventory is 267.55, with a weekly decrease of 0.15, a monthly increase of 9.14, and a yearly decrease of 32.03% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 777.63, with a weekly increase of 1.99, a monthly decrease of 60.62, and a yearly increase of 2.01% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 969.43, with a weekly increase of 19.98, a monthly decrease of 360.56, and a yearly increase of 24.20% [2] Group 4: Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.31, with a weekly increase of 0.40, a monthly increase of 1.42, and a yearly increase of 3.87% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 86.46, with a weekly increase of 0.57, a monthly increase of 0.13, and a yearly decrease of 1.14% [2] - The 05 basis is -20.85, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 53.48, a monthly decrease of 22.56, and a yearly increase of 48.66 [2] - The 09 basis is -135.35, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 38.48, a monthly decrease of 58.06, and a yearly decrease of 0.03 [2] - The 01 basis is -342.35, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly increase of 21.48, a monthly decrease of 90.06, and a yearly increase of 0.79 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -114.50, with a daily decrease of 4.50, a weekly decrease of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 35.50, and a yearly increase of 0.65 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is -207.00, with a daily decrease of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 17.00, a monthly decrease of 32.00, and a yearly increase of 2.94 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 321.50, with a daily increase of 6.00, a weekly increase of 32.00, a monthly increase of 67.50, and a yearly increase of 1.64 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a sustained increase in international oil and gas prices, which is expected to positively impact domestic coal price expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Energy Price Trends - The sustained rise in overseas energy prices is likely to improve domestic coal price expectations [2]. - Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, domestic coal prices have underperformed expectations, but the overall price performance has been better than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Coal Price Outlook - Domestic coal prices are expected to transition from a short-term weak fluctuation phase to a steady upward trend due to three main factors: 1) Improved profitability in the chemical sector may increase coal demand [3]. 2) Year-on-year improvements in industry data for the first two months suggest a better-than-expected annual fundamental outlook [3]. 3) Continued overseas price premiums for coal due to the ongoing conflict [3]. Group 3: Market Performance - The coal sector has shown significant excess returns since the onset of the Middle East conflict, with cumulative excess returns increasing from 6.39% in the first week to 15.79% after three weeks [4]. - The thermal coal sub-sector has performed the best, driven by the direct impact of rising oil and gas prices, with leading thermal coal companies also having coal chemical business attributes [4]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The thermal coal sector is expected to maintain a stable and positive performance in the context of rising domestic coal prices, while the coking coal sub-sector has greater potential for price increases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The evolving situation in the Middle East is expected to significantly impact the global energy supply and demand landscape, potentially raising the energy price baseline. The coal industry in China, as a key energy pillar, is likely to undergo a revaluation [1]. Group 1: Energy Price Trends - Since the escalation of the Middle East situation, global oil, gas, and chemical product prices have risen, indirectly pushing up overseas thermal coal prices. As of March 13, Newcastle thermal coal prices increased by 17% to $136/ton, while European ARA port thermal coal prices rose by 16% to $124/ton [1]. - Domestic coal prices may follow suit but are expected to rise less than overseas prices due to strong domestic energy supply capabilities and lower reliance on imported coal. Domestic coal prices have declined since the end of February, reflecting weaker demand expectations during the traditional off-season [1]. Group 2: Future Price Projections - In extreme scenarios, domestic thermal coal prices could exceed 1,000 yuan/ton. The CICC commodity team forecasts that by 2026, the oil price baseline could reach $76, $93, or $109 per barrel under moderate, risk, and extreme risk scenarios, respectively. The actual price performance will depend on domestic energy supply efforts at that time [2][5]. - Coal demand is expected to remain rigid, supporting the coal price baseline. Even if geopolitical risks ease, the coal price baseline is likely to have strong support due to the complex global geopolitical backdrop, leading countries to increase reserves of upstream resources to mitigate supply chain risks [2]. Group 3: Opportunities in the Coal Industry - The coal industry is anticipated to see improved profitability and heightened strategic significance, presenting revaluation opportunities. The midstream sector may benefit from domestic energy cost advantages and supply chain stability, enhancing export competitiveness [2]. - However, there is a caution regarding the rapid increase in some raw material prices, which could squeeze midstream profit margins [2]. Group 4: Regional Energy Supply Dependencies - Countries such as India, South Korea, and Taiwan have a relatively high dependence on LNG supplies from the Middle East. If the situation persists longer than expected, Japan's natural gas generation may decline, complicating power peak regulation and potentially increasing coal demand [7][9]. - Similarly, South Korea's natural gas generation is expected to decline, leading to challenges in power peak regulation and a corresponding rise in coal demand [12]. Taiwan's high dependence on Middle Eastern natural gas may also result in tighter electricity supply conditions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has led to unexpected supply shocks in the oil market, with potential risks of price surges accumulating due to disruptions in oil trade and production [1][3]. Oil Market Analysis - The escalation of the US-Iran situation since February 28 has prompted multiple reports assessing its impact on the oil market, indicating that the supply shock may exceed market expectations [1]. - As of March 16, satellite data shows that oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, with only about 10% of the usual trade volume remaining [2]. - Middle Eastern countries are experiencing significant production cuts, with UAE reducing output by 1.5 million barrels per day (42% loss) and Kuwait by 1.3 million barrels per day (51% loss), leading to a total loss of 8-8.5 million barrels per day in the region [2]. - The potential for Brent crude oil prices to rise significantly is highlighted, with scenarios predicting quarterly averages of $80 to $150 per barrel depending on the duration of the trade disruptions [3]. Natural Gas Market Analysis - Qatar's LNG exports are currently nearly halted due to damage to liquefaction facilities, which could impact global LNG supply expansion, particularly as Qatar is expected to contribute 20% of global LNG supply by 2025 [4]. - Despite the disruptions, the US natural gas market may not see significant benefits, as US LNG export capacity is already operating at near full capacity, with a projected 20% year-on-year increase in exports [5]. Coal Market Analysis - The energy supply shock from the Iran situation is affecting the global coal market, with rising oil and gas prices potentially shifting the market from an oversupply to a tight balance [6]. - Coal consumption is expected to benefit from oil and gas substitution, particularly in regions heavily reliant on natural gas for power generation [7]. - Domestic coal supply risks are considered manageable, with sufficient inventory levels and government policies aimed at stabilizing coal prices [8].