小盘价值风格表现突出，多只宽基指数 ETF 呈现资金流出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 科 创 板指 数将 迎来 样本 调 整，私募新规发布—公募基 金周报 2026.03. 02 权益市场震荡修复，宽基指 数多数呈现资金流出态势— 公募基金周报 2025. 02.25 公募 FOF 规模超过 2800 亿 元，权益市场震荡回撤—公 募基金周报 2025. 02.09 核心观点： ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 2 月沪深市场主要指数涨跌互现，其中，中证 500 和中小板指涨幅居前，上涨幅度均超 过 3%，科创 50 跌幅最大，为 1.42%。31 个申万一级行业中 23 个行业上涨，涨幅前 5 的行业分别为综合、钢铁、建筑材料、环保和机械设备；跌幅前 5 的行业为传媒、商业 贸易、非银金融、银行和医药生物。 新开户情况方面，根据上交所最新披露的数据，2026年 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 后市展望： 大盘探底回升，三大指数集体收红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4067.74 | 1.29% | 51.99 | | | 深证成指 | 14127.11 | 2.19% | 302.75 | | | 沪深 300 | 4660.11 | 1.18% | 54.13 | | | 创业板 | 3324.89 | 1.86% | 60.78 | | | 科创 50 | 1471.07 | 1.39% | 20.17 | | | 北证 50 | 1549.51 | 3.27% | 49.08 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market downturn was primarily caused by significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with the A-share market showing no clear deterioration in trading sentiment [1][9] - Historical data suggests that the average duration of spring market rallies is 39 trading days, with a maximum increase of 15.8%, while the current rally has lasted 31 days with a 9.8% increase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][9] - The report categorizes the triggers for the end of spring market rallies since 2010, noting that significant pullbacks often occur when domestic fundamentals decline alongside tightening overseas liquidity or geopolitical shocks [2][13] Group 2 - Evidence of performance recovery for listed companies in 2025-2026 is becoming increasingly clear, with a projected 5.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][15] - The report highlights that the proportion of companies with upward revisions to earnings expectations for 2026 has risen from 65% to 100% since late November 2025, reflecting optimism about corporate profit recovery [3][15] - Industrial profits are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 0.6% in 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022, with stable profit margins being a key support factor [3][15] Group 3 - The report suggests a shift in the funding landscape, with a transition from short-term speculative capital to long-term household deposits, as a significant amount of household savings is set to mature in 2026 [4][21] - There has been a notable outflow of approximately 1 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs since the beginning of the year, indicating a cooling of short-term speculative money [4][21] - The issuance of public funds has shown a significant recovery, with new public equity products increasing from 22.1 billion yuan in May 2025 to 69.6 billion yuan by January 2026 [4][21] Group 4 - The report emphasizes a focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, particularly cyclical industries, non-bank financials, and technology sectors with solid fundamentals [5][28] - Specific sectors highlighted include non-bank financials, which have seen a 550% increase in the proportion of companies with upward earnings revisions, and cyclical industries such as metals and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side incentives [5][28] - The report identifies key themes in technology, such as satellite navigation and commercial aerospace, which are projected to have significant earnings growth in 2026 [5][28]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.10% as of 13:58, with a trading volume of 1,241.22 million shares and a total transaction value of 22,399.03 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 10.83% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Basic Chemicals: Up by 2.11% with a transaction value of 1,066.38 billion yuan, an increase of 6.61% from the previous day, led by Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, which rose by 10.06% [1]. - Defense and Military: Increased by 1.94% with a transaction value of 1,217.27 billion yuan, down by 6.48%, with the leading stock being Hangya Technology, up by 15.46% [1]. - Social Services: Rose by 1.28% with a transaction value of 212.48 billion yuan, down by 2.04%, led by Electric Science Institute, which increased by 14.34% [1]. Declining Sectors - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Computer: Decreased by 1.44% with a transaction value of 1,703.51 billion yuan, down by 23.00%, led by Zhizhen Technology, which fell by 10.00% [2]. - Communication: Down by 1.23% with a transaction value of 1,173.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.98%, with Ruijie Networks declining by 12.04% [2]. - Banking: Fell by 0.85% with a transaction value of 223.59 billion yuan, down by 25.07%, led by Ningbo Bank, which decreased by 3.34% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights significant movements in various sectors, particularly focusing on the performance of ETFs and the implications of rising gold prices on the market [5][6][8]. Sector Performance - The construction materials, power equipment, and electronics sectors showed positive daily gains, with increases of +1.12%, +0.88%, and +0.58% respectively, while sectors like retail and beauty care experienced declines of -1.65% and -2.07% [3]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were power equipment (¥3.656 billion), basic chemicals (¥1.278 billion), and construction materials (¥358 million), while the sectors with the highest outflows included defense and military (-¥5.769 billion), electronics (-¥5.504 billion), and communications (-¥4.054 billion) [3]. ETF Performance - The new materials ETF recorded a 1.19% increase, while the green energy ETF rose by 1.04%, and the smart electric vehicle ETF increased by 0.91%. The electronic ETF saw a 0.77% rise, and the non-ferrous ETF gained 0.74% [4]. - The financial technology ETF attracted significant capital, with net inflows exceeding ¥340 million over two days, indicating strong investor interest [8]. Gold Market Insights - International gold prices have surpassed $4,500, marking a historical high, which is expected to positively impact the performance of gold companies starting in 2026 [6][7]. - The outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is optimistic, with potential for a prolonged bull market driven by various strategic metals, including lithium and copper [7]. Market Activity - A-share annual trading volume has exceeded ¥40.5 trillion for the first time, setting a new record, with expectations of continued market activity into 2025 and 2026 [8]. - The leverage funds have recently increased their positions, with the latest financing balance approaching ¥400 million, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [8].

Core Insights - The report indicates that today, four industries experienced net inflows of capital, while 27 industries faced net outflows. The industry with the highest net inflow was the electric equipment sector, with a net inflow of 3.793 billion yuan and a price change of 1.12% [1][2] - Conversely, the defense and military industry saw the largest net outflow, amounting to 8.698 billion yuan, with a price change of -1.42% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Electric Equipment** - Trading volume: 9.019 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +14.57% - Turnover rate: 3.59% - Price change: +1.12% - Net capital inflow: 3.793 billion yuan [1] - **Basic Chemicals** - Trading volume: 6.046 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +8.07% - Turnover rate: 2.21% - Price change: +0.22% - Net capital inflow: 1.002 billion yuan [1] - **Construction Materials** - Trading volume: 1.917 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +19.91% - Turnover rate: 2.56% - Price change: +0.88% - Net capital inflow: 0.422 billion yuan [1] - **Defense and Military** - Trading volume: 4.727 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +10.23% - Turnover rate: 5.32% - Price change: -1.42% - Net capital outflow: -8.698 billion yuan [2] - **Automotive** - Trading volume: 7.062 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +14.38% - Turnover rate: 3.18% - Price change: -0.95% - Net capital outflow: -5.197 billion yuan [2] - **Commercial Retail** - Trading volume: 6.132 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -10.33% - Turnover rate: 5.09% - Price change: -1.60% - Net capital outflow: -3.513 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - A new individual business named Guanyun County Yaoteng Plastic Pipe Business has been established, focusing on various plastic and construction materials sales [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the newly established business is Hu Jinchang [1] - The registered capital of the business is 100,000 RMB [1] Business Scope - The business operates in the following areas: - Sales of plastic products - Manufacturing and sales of daily miscellaneous goods - Sales of waterproof building materials - Sales of synthetic materials - Operation of wires and cables - Wholesale of hardware products - Sales of building decoration materials - Research and development of hardware products - Retail of hardware products - Sales of rubber products - Sales of building materials (excluding projects that require approval) [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.43% as of 10:29 AM, with a trading volume of 608.72 million shares and a transaction value of 965 billion yuan, representing a 31.11% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - **Telecommunications**: Increased by 3.80%, with a transaction value of 870.50 billion yuan, led by Tianfu Communication, which rose by 16.64% [1]. - **Comprehensive**: Increased by 2.01%, with a transaction value of 30.29 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang, which rose by 4.03% [1]. - **Defense and Military Industry**: Increased by 1.97%, with a transaction value of 603.60 billion yuan, led by Hengyu Xintong, which rose by 16.60% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - **Coal**: Decreased by 1.89%, with a transaction value of 59.55 billion yuan, led by Antai Group, which fell by 3.80% [2]. - **Steel**: Decreased by 1.17%, with a transaction value of 45.09 billion yuan, led by CITIC Special Steel, which fell by 3.95% [2]. - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Decreased by 0.71%, with a transaction value of 45.01 billion yuan, led by Heshun Petroleum, which fell by 8.13% [2]. Detailed Industry Data - **Non-Bank Financials**: Increased by 1.86%, with a transaction value of 548.82 billion yuan, led by Industrial Securities, which rose by 10.00% [1]. - **Electronics**: Increased by 1.60%, with a transaction value of 1,705.96 billion yuan, led by Dongtianwei, which rose by 20.00% [1]. - **Computers**: Increased by 1.44%, with a transaction value of 686.69 billion yuan, led by Rongke Technology, which rose by 19.85% [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.22% as of 10:29 AM, with a trading volume of 596.58 million shares and a transaction value of 903.29 billion yuan, representing a 22.37% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Non-ferrous Metals: Up 2.97% with a transaction value of 758.34 billion yuan, led by Asia Pacific Technology, which rose by 10.06% [1]. - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up 1.58% with a transaction value of 57.59 billion yuan, led by Zhun Oil Co., which increased by 3.24% [1]. - Communication: Up 1.46% with a transaction value of 696.65 billion yuan, led by Guanghe Tong, which surged by 15.64% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Electronics: Down 0.36% with a transaction value of 1,546.99 billion yuan, led by Canxin Co., which fell by 7.91% [2]. - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Down 0.29% with a transaction value of 129.44 billion yuan, led by Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, which decreased by 3.67% [2]. - Non-bank Financials: Down 0.18% with a transaction value of 160.33 billion yuan, led by Haide Co., which dropped by 9.97% [2].

Group 1 - A new company, Bengbu Wanyun Electromechanical Equipment Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xu Yuyan [1] - The company's business scope includes a variety of services and sales, such as installation of general machinery, sales of household appliances, and manufacturing of lighting equipment [1] Group 2 - The company is involved in the sales of textiles, ceramics, and daily necessities, as well as construction materials and cooling equipment [1] - Additional services offered by the company include conference and exhibition services, graphic design, and industrial engineering design [1] - The company is permitted to operate legally in areas not prohibited or restricted by laws and regulations [1]