然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月8日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月7日 | 5月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -110 | -115 | 5 | 4.35% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14450 | -50 | -0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -410 | -365 | -45 | -12.33% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | રૂડે રેટ | 53.05 | 0.50 | 0.94% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 59.50 | 59.25 | 0.25 | 0.42% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13000 | 13000 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on glass and soda ash prices, profits, and related market indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in some regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Safety 5mm large - plate dropped from 1220.0 to 1198.0, a decrease of 22.0; the price of Hubei large - plate low - price dropped from 1140.0 to 1110.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 1108.0 to 1071.0, a decrease of 37.0; the FG05 contract price decreased by 36.0 from April 29 to May 6 but increased by 7.0 from April 30 to May 6 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.7 to 268.5, an increase of 9.8; the 09FG disk surface natural gas profit decreased from - 286.2 to - 313.6, a decrease of 27.3 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price was around 1173, and the Hubei factory low - price was around 1110. The sales volume in Shahe was 98, in Hubei was 93, in East China was 107, and in South China was 114 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1330.0, a decrease of 20.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1290.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1329.0 to 1281.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 contract price decreased by 50.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 84.7 to - 122.1, a decrease of 37.5; the North China combined - alkali profit decreased from 69.5 to 18.4, a decrease of 51.1 [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The heavy soda spot price in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1290, and in Shahe warehouses was around 1340. There were many maintenance expectations in May [1].

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the report. It mainly provides detailed data on glass and soda ash prices, profits, production and sales, etc. Summary of Glass Section Price Data - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from different manufacturers changed from April 22 to April 29, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1278.0 to 1220.0, with a weekly change of - 58.0 [1]. - Futures contract prices also changed. The FG09 contract price decreased from 1124.0 on April 22 to 1108.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 16.0 [1]. Profit Data - The profit of glass production using different energy sources and in different regions changed. For example, the profit of 09FG盘面 natural gas decreased from - 257.4 on April 22 to - 286.2 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 28.8 [1]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratios in different regions on April 29 were: Shahe 70, Hubei 89, East China 88, and South China 96 [1]. Summary of Soda Ash Section Price Data - The price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions changed from April 22 to April 29, 2025. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased from 1290.0 to 1350.0, with a weekly change of 60.0 [1]. - Futures contract prices also changed. The SA05 contract price increased from 1274.0 on April 22 to 1329.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of 55.0 [1]. Profit Data - The profit of soda ash production using different methods and in different regions changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased from - 149.8 on April 22 to - 84.7 on April 29, with a weekly change of 65.1 [1]. Other Data - The SA month - difference 05 - 9 decreased from - 41.0 on April 22 to - 47.0 on April 29, with a weekly change of - 6.0 [1].

2025-04-28 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 75.51 | -0.05 | 73.71 | 69.94 | 阿拉善周内产量短时波动，供应整体高位运行；5月检修计划逐步明 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.55 | -0.10 | ...

Glass Price and Contract Information - The price of 5mm glass plates from various manufacturers showed minor changes from April 15 to April 22, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm glass plates from Shahe Anquan remained at 1278.0, while the price of 5mm glass plates from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1216.0 to 1198.0 [1]. - The FG09 contract price decreased from 1181.0 to 1124.0, and the FG05 contract price decreased from 1144.0 to 1074.0 during the same period [1]. Profit and Basis Information - The profit of North China coal-fired glass increased from 254.9 to 259.1, while the profit of South China natural gas glass remained at -154.3 [1]. - The 05 Hebei basis decreased from 103.0 to 90.0, and the 05 Hubei basis decreased from 89.0 to 76.0 [1]. Spot and Sales Information - The spot price of glass in Shahe was around 1165, and the spot price in Hubei was around 1150. The sales volume in Shahe was 146, in Hubei was 103, in East China was 108, and in South China was 102 [1]. Soda Ash Price and Contract Information - The price of heavy soda ash in various regions showed different trends from April 15 to April 22, 2025. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1350.0 to 1290.0, while the price in South China remained at 1570.0 [1]. - The SA05 contract price decreased from 1331.0 to 1274.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1401.0 to 1335.0 during the same period [1]. Profit and Basis Information - The profit of North China ammonia-alkali soda ash decreased from -130.4 to -149.8, and the profit of North China combined-alkali soda ash decreased from -63.7 to -77.5 [1]. - The SA05 Shahe basis increased from 11.0 to 16.0, and the North China ammonia-alkali cost decreased from 1420.4 to 1419.8 [1]. Spot and Industry Information - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1270, and the spot price in Shahe warehouses was around 1290. The terminal delivery price was around 1320 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 11 to April 18, 2025, the price of FG09 contract dropped by 86.0 to 1122.0, FG05 contract decreased by 62.0 to 1084.0, and FG5 - 9 spread increased by 24.0 to -38.0. Some spot prices like that of 5mm large - board glass in certain regions remained stable, while others had minor changes, e.g., the price of 5mm large - board glass from Shahe Great Wall decreased by 26.0 to 1198.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: On April 18, 2025, the North China coal - fired profit was 266.8 with a weekly increase of 1.6 and daily increase of 2.5, and the North China coal - fired cost was 910.2 with a weekly decrease of 5.6 and daily decrease of 2.5. The South China natural gas profit remained at -154.3. The 09FG and 05FG contract natural gas profits decreased significantly [1] - **Spot and Sales**: Spot prices: Shahe traders' price dropped to around 1160, Hubei's factory low - price was around 1150. Sales ratios: Shahe was 66/58, Hubei was 77/84, East China was 81/70, and South China was 85/80 [1] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 11 to April 18, 2025, the SA05 contract price decreased by 41.0 to 1286.0, SA01 contract dropped by 53.0 to 1348.0, and SA09 contract decreased by 46.0 to 1324.0. Some spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions changed, e.g., the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 30.0 to 1310.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: On April 18, 2025, the North China ammonia - soda process profit was -131.7 with a weekly decrease of 23.7 and daily decrease of 9.4, and the North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1421.7 with a weekly decrease of 1.3 and daily decrease of 0.6. The North China combined - soda process profit decreased to -77.3 [1] - **Spot and Industry**: Spot prices: Heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouse was quoted around 1280 - 1290, and in Shahe warehouse around 1310. No information on the industry aspect was provided [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing fluctuations due to inventory adjustments and varying demand, with expectations of continued low-price volatility in the near term [1] Glass Market Summary - The glass market is seeing strong production and sales driven by midstream inventory replenishment, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] - In March, the main glass futures contract closed at 1181 RMB/ton, down 67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.37% for the month [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market increased slightly to 1268 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 3.27 RMB/ton [1] - The production capacity utilization rate for float glass was 78.99%, with a total output of 1.1088 million tons [1] - Total inventory for float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.87% to 65.757 million heavy boxes [1] Soda Ash Market Summary - The soda ash market is witnessing a recovery in production and inventory levels as companies resume operations after maintenance [1] - In March, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1373 RMB/ton, down 196 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.49% for the month [1] - The production of soda ash reached 713,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [1] - Total inventory for soda ash manufacturers rose by 4.38% to 1.7014 million tons [1] Market Strategies - The strategy for the glass market is to maintain a volatile trading range, while the strategy for soda ash is to lean towards a weaker volatility [1] - There are no cross-variety or cross-period strategies currently in place [1]