美国普加关税，亚洲地区轮胎成本优势未必下降 目前乘用车轮胎及轻卡轮胎在232关税项下，新增税率为25%，全钢胎当前税率为10%(后续是否加征对 等关税目前仍存在不确定性)。美国轮胎有三个来源，自产、高成本地区进口和低成本地区进口，进口 自低成本地区的轮胎由于价格较低，同样的加税比例，单条轮胎关税增加的绝对值比进口自高成本地区 的更低，这样意味着进口自低成本地区的轮胎相对高成本地区更有优势。 据美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)，2024年美国进口半钢胎均价62美元/条，其中来自泰国、柬埔寨、越南半 钢胎均价在40美元/条，2024年美国进口全钢胎均117美元/条，其中来自柬埔寨、越南全钢胎均价在80- 85美元/条左右。若考虑加征25%关税，我国轮胎与北美、日韩企业轮胎价差或进一步扩大，成本优势 持续巩固。 根据2022年情境预演，大部分关税将向客户传导2022年，海运费暴涨，泰国至美国的海运费单价14美 元/条半钢胎，占轮胎价格的比例高达44%，较2020年上升约30个百分点。同时，泰国半钢胎出口至美 国的反倾销税率初裁税率为17.08%。两项叠加，企业约等于承担了60%的关税损失，2022年森麒麟泰国 工厂净利 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 供需格局优化，复合肥、金属铬、 细分农药迎景气提升，重点关注低 估值高成长标的 看好 ——《化工周报 25/04/21-25/04/25》 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230124070001 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has faced pressure on performance due to rising raw material prices, with a notable decline in earnings in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. However, the "7+5" strategic layout is progressing steadily, with the Serbia project successfully commencing production [1][6][7] - The company reported a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 23% [5][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company sold 24.11 million tires, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, but faced a 91% drop in net profit compared to the same quarter last year. The average price of tire products increased by 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The company’s raw material costs rose significantly, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in the cost of key materials [6] Strategic Initiatives - The "7+5" global strategy aims to establish 7 production bases in China and 5 overseas, enhancing the company's competitiveness in international markets. The Serbia plant is the first tire factory built by a Chinese company in Europe and is expected to drive growth in sales and profits [7][9] Market Position and Sales - The company has established a strong marketing presence, supplying tires to over 200 production bases of more than 60 major automotive manufacturers globally. It has maintained a leading position in tire supply for domestic manufacturers and has made significant inroads into the electric vehicle market [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 2.08 billion yuan and 2.41 billion yuan, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.42, 1.64, and 1.90 yuan [9][11]

2025年4月，贵州轮胎股份有限公司公布了2024年年度报告。报告显示，公司在营业收入增长的同时， 净利润却出现下滑，经营活动现金流量净额更是大幅减少。本文将深入解读各项关键财务指标，剖析公 司财务状况及潜在风险。 关键财务指标解读 营收增长但利润下滑营业收入：2024年公司营业收入为10,690,550,119.05元，较2023年的 9,601,195,952.98元增长11.35%。这一增长表明公司在市场拓展方面取得了一定成效，业务规模有所扩 大。从业务构成来看，轮胎销售业务收入为10,618,508,716.83元，占比99.33%，是营收增长的主要驱动 力。净利润：归属于上市公司股东的净利润为615,485,040.26元，相较于2023年的832,650,411.91元，下 降了26.08%。净利润下滑的原因可能是多方面的，成本上升、市场竞争加剧等因素都可能对利润空间 产生挤压。扣非净利润：归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为595,680,404.32元，较 2023年的822,893,024.06元下降27.61%。扣非净利润的下滑幅度大于净利润，说明公司主营业务的盈利 能力面临较大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Linglong Tire (601966) with a target price of 20.85 CNY, while the current price is 14.77 CNY [1][3]. Core Insights - Linglong Tire is expanding its global footprint by investing 1.19 billion USD (approximately 8.71 billion CNY) in a new production base in Brazil, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness and market share in the Americas [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 22.06 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion CNY, up 26.01% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in net profit for Q4 2024, which was 0.41 billion CNY, down 90.6% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the latter part of the year [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Linglong Tire produced and sold 89.12 million and 85.45 million tires, respectively, marking increases of 12.65% and 9.57% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of tires in 2024 was 255.3 CNY per tire, a slight increase of 0.2% from 2023 [7]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 22.06%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.05 percentage points, although the margin decreased in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs [7][8]. Future Projections - The report projects revenues of 27.7 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.6%, and a net profit of 2.04 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.4% [8]. - For 2026 and 2027, the expected revenues are 31.28 billion CNY and 34.03 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.72 billion CNY and 3.39 billion CNY [8].

Group 1 - The company approved a cash management proposal using its own funds during the board meeting on April 25, 2025, with unanimous support [1] - The company has a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.27% as of December 31, 2024, allowing for safe investment of idle funds [3] - The company plans to invest in low-risk financial products that comply with regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] Group 2 - The company’s subsidiary, Triangle (Qingdao) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., is set to provide accounts receivable factoring services related to electronic debt certificates, with a maximum rolling limit of 50 million RMB [6][12] - The board meeting on April 25, 2025, approved the proposal for the subsidiary to engage in these transactions without requiring shareholder approval [7] - The independent directors believe that the related transactions will enhance the company's capital efficiency and competitiveness without compromising its independence [15] Group 3 - The company plans to continue its relationship with Xinyong Zhonghe Accounting Firm for the 2025 financial audit, pending shareholder approval [19][28] - Xinyong Zhonghe reported a revenue of 4.046 billion RMB in 2023, with a significant portion coming from audit services [20] - The company’s audit fees for 2024 were 900,000 RMB, and it expects similar costs for 2025 [26] Group 4 - The company announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.53 RMB per share, totaling approximately 424 million RMB [88][89] - The proposed dividend represents 38.45% of the company's net profit for the year [89] - The profit distribution plan is subject to approval at the upcoming shareholder meeting [90] Group 5 - The company will hold its annual shareholder meeting on June 27, 2025, to discuss various proposals, including the profit distribution plan and the appointment of auditors [93][94] - The meeting will utilize both in-person and online voting methods [94] - Investors can submit questions in advance for discussion during the meeting [50]

截至4月25日，A股9家轮胎上市公司中已有6家披露2024年年报。其中，从营收方面看，山东玲珑轮胎 （601966）股份有限公司(以下简称"玲珑轮胎")以220.58亿元的营业收入位居第一；从净利方面看，青 岛森麒麟（002984）轮胎股份有限公司(以下简称"森麒麟")则以归母净利润21.86亿元居行业榜首。 政策支持下，汽车市场实现了新的突破，特别是新能源汽车。根据中国汽车工业协会数据，新能源汽车 2024年产销首次突破千万辆大关，渗透率已达到40.9%。 玲珑轮胎有关人士对《证券日报》记者表示，近年来创新成果不断涌现，如发布首条智能发电轮胎等， 公司在低滚阻、高耐磨、超强操控性产品上走在行业前列。此外，公司还建成全球首条百吨级绿色水基 蒲公英橡胶生产线，加快绿色低碳产品开发。 在袁帅看来，绿色材料替代与智能制造升级是轮胎行业"双碳"转型的关键。玲珑轮胎有关负责人也表 示，绿色环保已成为轮胎行业的新标准，轮胎企业需加速创新和深化绿色转型，实现绿色低碳高质量发 展。 "当前，中国轮胎加速'出海'，有望实现品牌力及市占率的进一步提升。"玲珑轮胎有关人士表示。玲珑 轮胎的塞尔维亚基地一期项目在2024年9月份成功 ...

行业观点 公募基金配置化工行业水平回落的同时龙头企业的持仓集中度也有下滑。2025 年 1 季度公募基金配置化工行业 比例降低至 4.1%，同比下滑 1.6pct，环比下滑 0.7pct，整体处于历史中低位的水平。从公募基金配置化工板块的风 格来看，前十大重仓股总市值占公募基金重仓化工行业的比例明显下滑，由 2024 年 4 季度的 46.2%降低至 2025 年 1 季度的 41.9%，其中聚氨酯龙头万华化学、轮胎龙头赛轮轮胎、煤化工龙头宝丰能源和电解液龙头新宙邦的持仓市值 在化工板块的占比明显下滑，今年 1 季度相比去年 4 季度的降低幅度分别为 2.2pct、1.1pct、1.6pct、2.7pct。 今年 1 季度关注度主要集中在民爆和氟化工板块。从个股重仓市值来看：4 季度获得加仓前五大标的是广东宏大、 振华股份、圣泉集团、三棵树、巨化股份；减仓前五大标的是万华化学、新宙邦、宝丰能源、赛轮轮胎、天赐材料。 从基金持有数量看：持仓数量环比增加前五为振华股份、卫星化学、圣泉集团、三棵树、芭田股份。新晋重仓与退出 重仓来看：新晋重仓标的方面，按 2025 年 1 季度重仓市值排序前五分别为大位科技、唯科科 ...

Core Viewpoint - Linglong Tire plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength, competitiveness, and international brand image, while supporting its global business development and strategy implementation [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Linglong Tire achieved a revenue of 22.058 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.39% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.752 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 26.01% [3]. Group 2: Global Strategy - Linglong Tire has established a "7+5" global layout strategy, with production bases in China and overseas locations in Thailand and Serbia, indicating steady progress in its globalization efforts [3]. - The company aims to complete the H-share issuance within the validity period of the shareholders' resolution, subject to necessary approvals from regulatory bodies [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - Linglong Tire is committed to technological innovation, with a global R&D system established across multiple locations, including China, the US, and Germany [6]. - The company has developed a range of high-performance products, integrating proprietary technologies and focusing on high quality and added value [6]. - Advanced technologies such as industrial internet, big data, and AI are utilized to enhance product quality and ensure efficient production processes [6]. Group 4: Sustainability and Industry Leadership - The European Linglong factory incorporates cutting-edge technologies and has achieved full automation and digital management, significantly improving product quality and production efficiency [5]. - The factory promotes a new model of "green, clean, civilized, and lean" manufacturing, leading the industry towards more environmentally friendly and efficient practices [5]. - In 2023, the European factory received a high score of 94 in a sustainability audit conducted by a third-party organization, highlighting its commitment to social responsibility [5].

关于 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号—— 化工》等要求，山东玲珑轮胎股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现 将 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 轮胎产量(万条) | 轮胎销量(万条) | 营业总收入(万元) | 其中：轮胎产品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 收入(万元) | | 2,302.86 | 2,140.96 | 569,683.73 | 565,327.37 | 证券代码：601966 证券简称：玲珑轮胎 公告编号：2025-022 山东玲珑轮胎股份有限公司 2、主要原材料的价格变动情况 受天然胶、合成胶等主要原材料价格波动等影响，公司第一季度 天然橡胶、合成胶、炭黑、钢丝帘线四项主要原材料综合采购成本环 比 2024 年第四季度降低 0.40%，同比 2024 年第一季度提升 13.95%。 三、需要说明的其 ...