证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，相比黄金ETF和期货等其他黄金投资品，稳定币的去中心化 特征提升了黄金交易的便捷程度。黄金稳定币市场目前呈现"双雄分治"的局面，Tether公司发行的 XAUT币和Paxos公司发行的PAXG币各占市场份额的近一半。截至2025年6月，黄金稳定币市场的市值 规模达到16亿美元，约占全部稳定币市值规模的0.67%，是排在美元稳定币和加密货币抵押型稳定币之 后的第三大类稳定币。 相比黄金ETF和期货等其他黄金投资品，稳定币的去中心化特征提升了黄金交易的便捷程度： 降低时空限制：黄金稳定币运行在区块链上，可实现任意时间的全球快速交易; 降低投资门槛：黄金稳定币对应黄金条块的所有权，在交易的过程中可以实现黄金条块的碎片化分割， 最高可分割至小数点后六位(约0.02元); 降低交易费用：黄金稳定币仅收取较低的交易费用(如PAXG币收取万分之二)。 黄金稳定币的发展：需突破三类困难 国泰海通主要观点如下： 黄金与稳定币的结合存在优势，不过未来发展也需要突破一些障碍。如果机制改善，黄金稳定币可以承 担价值储藏的功能，以及特定条件下的支付和结算功能。 黄金稳定币：悄然崛起的"币圈新宠" ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

3. 稳定币存在刚需场景 （跨境支付等），但也并非所有现实场景都能长驱直入。监管下场有私心，美国想增加短债买家，欧、中想抵抗美元霸权。 加密货币系列前两篇（《Coinbase业务逻辑》、《稳定币讨论》）( 已发布在长桥App「动态-投研」板块，也可添加文末小助手微信入群获取 )，海豚君介绍了 Coinbase的商业模式，稳定币市场规模以及USDC的稀缺性问题。为防大家信息迷失，我们先来拎一下重点： 1. Coinbase目前主要靠 加密货币交易费创收，散户收费 为主。但竞争加剧下（监管加入有利有弊，出清低合规Crypto交易平台，但刺激传统经纪商进入市场），因 此降费是大趋势。 未来增长要靠非交易收入——a订阅类（托管、质押、借贷、稳定币等）; b. 数据、云等链上基础服务类。这一众收入来源中，稳定币是最具想象力的业务。 2. 稳定币的监管认可打开了加密货币的价值上限 ，也给了Coinbase更大的增长想象力；必须先分析稳定币前景，才能算清Coinbase的稳态价值。 在估值之前，我们有必要先来回溯下Coinbase和Circle之间的合作协议变化。 从2018年至今，可以分为三个时期，简单概括为： 2018 ...

Core Insights - The global cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant rebound, with altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ethereum (ETH) driving Bitcoin (BTC) prices to surpass $109,000 for the first time in three weeks, nearing its historical peak from May [1][3][5] Market Performance - Dogecoin has surged over 8% in the past 24 hours, reaching $0.171, while Ethereum has also seen a price increase, breaking the $2,590 mark with a daily gain close to 8% [3] - Bitcoin's price briefly exceeded $109,200, marking a more than 3% increase from the previous day, and it approached a high of $109,600, remaining about 2% shy of its May peak of $111,814 [3][5] Investor Sentiment - The upward momentum in Bitcoin is attributed to optimistic expectations regarding the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs and improved liquidity expectations due to macroeconomic policy shifts [3][5] - Recent positive signals from the U.S. regulatory environment, including Ripple's application for a national bank charter, are seen as steps towards further integration of the crypto industry with traditional finance [5][7] Economic Context - The overall strength in risk assets is reflected in the recent historical highs of tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a broader market recovery [7] - Despite the strong performance in the cryptocurrency market, uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape persist, including challenges in U.S. budget proposals and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that many tokens may reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by increased regulatory transparency and the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies potentially boosting risk asset prices [5][7] - The XBIT decentralized exchange has gained traction in this bullish market, offering zero-fee trading and high liquidity, which enhances trading efficiency and attracts DeFi users [7]

Market Insights - The US ADP employment numbers unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a prior expectation of an increase of 98,000. The revised May data showed an increase of only 29,000 [1][2] - A group of billionaires from Silicon Valley has applied for a charter bank license in the US, aiming to establish a national bank focused on supporting startups in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The UN reported that 2023 has seen some of the most extensive and destructive droughts on record, highlighting severe challenges posed by climate change and resource pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May, recovering from zero growth in the previous month but falling short of the market expectation of 0.5% [3] - South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 2.1% and marking a return to above 2% inflation after two months [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.56% to $3,368.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $36.79 per ounce [6] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery increased by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a rise of 3.06%, while Brent crude oil futures for September delivery also rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, up 2.98% [6] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell by 0.05% to 96.777, with the euro trading at 1.1800 against the dollar, up from 1.1781, and the British pound at 1.3636, down from 1.3738 [7] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1670 against the dollar, down 52 basis points from the previous trading day [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential of stablecoins in enhancing Coinbase's business model, particularly in expanding transaction, custody, and staking services, while also generating interest income from reserves primarily held in U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics of Stablecoins - The valuation of Circle at $6.8 billion post-IPO surged to a peak of 10 times within a month, indicating a speculative bubble driven by high expectations for the stablecoin market [2]. - Stablecoins are seen as essential for reducing transaction costs in traditional finance, especially in high-inflation regions like Latin America, where they can significantly lower cross-border trade costs [5][6]. - Current market expectations project the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2028, with optimistic forecasts suggesting $3.7 trillion by 2030, while conservative estimates range from $500 billion to $1.6 trillion [6][19]. Group 2: Demand and Use Cases - Stablecoin demand is categorized into three main areas: crypto-native demand, B2B transactions, and securities trading, with the latter two expected to drive significant growth [15][16][24]. - The global B2B payment market is valued at $114 trillion, with cross-border payments accounting for $38 trillion, presenting a substantial opportunity for stablecoins to penetrate this space [15]. - The potential for stablecoins in securities trading is highlighted by recent initiatives to tokenize shares of major companies, which could streamline transaction processes and reduce costs [16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Circle's USDC and Tether's USDT dominate the stablecoin market, collectively holding a 90% market share, with USDC being more compliant with emerging regulations [26][30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of regulatory compliance as a competitive advantage for USDC, especially with the introduction of the GENIUS Act, which sets standards for stablecoin issuers [31][32]. - The future market share distribution is projected to favor USDC and other traditional financial institution-backed stablecoins, potentially capturing 70% of the market in various use cases [41]. Group 4: Future Projections - The stablecoin market is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market cap for USDC could reach between $688 billion and $2.1 trillion by 2030, depending on various scenarios [42]. - The article concludes that the stablecoin market's growth will largely depend on regulatory clarity and the willingness of traditional financial institutions to embrace change [21][39].

订阅数字货币资讯 +订阅 据华尔街日报：瑞波寻求获得美国银行牌照，加入了寻求进入主流金融的加密货币公司的行列。 ...

瑞波币发行人Ripple申请获得美国银行许可。（华尔街日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of stablecoins in expanding Coinbase's business opportunities, emphasizing their role in transactions, custody, and staking, while also highlighting the income generated from stablecoin reserves, primarily in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics of Stablecoins - Circle's IPO valuation reached $6.8 billion, and within a month, it peaked at ten times that value, indicating a speculative bubble driven by high expectations for the stablecoin market [3]. - Stablecoins are seen as essential due to their ability to reduce transaction costs in traditional finance, particularly in high-inflation regions like Latin America [3][4]. - The average intermediary cost in traditional cross-border payments is around 6%, while using stablecoins can reduce transaction fees by 99% [7][8]. Group 2: Future Market Expectations - The market expectation for stablecoins is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2028, with more optimistic forecasts suggesting $3.7 trillion by 2030 [8][9]. - As of June 30, the total market cap of stablecoins was approximately $263 billion, indicating significant growth potential if the market reaches the projected figures [9][11]. - The demand for stablecoins is categorized into three main areas: crypto-native demand, B2B transactions, and securities trading [16][17][18]. Group 3: Demand Scenarios and Market Penetration - The crypto-native demand for stablecoins is currently the primary use case, with an annual trading volume projected to reach $18 trillion by 2025 [16]. - B2B payments represent a significant growth opportunity, with a global market of $114 trillion, where stablecoins can streamline transactions and reduce costs [17]. - The potential for stablecoins in securities trading is also highlighted, as they can simplify transaction processes and provide 24/7 trading capabilities [18]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Environment - Circle's USDC is positioned as a compliant stablecoin, which may provide a competitive edge over others like Tether (USDT) and FDUSD, especially in light of regulatory developments [31][33]. - The article emphasizes the importance of market share for USDC, suggesting that it could capture a significant portion of the stablecoin market, potentially reaching a market cap of $750 billion by 2030 [42][45]. - The competitive dynamics between Circle and Coinbase are discussed, with a focus on the need for both to expand their market presence and user base amid evolving regulatory landscapes [41][44].