倒计时2天！FBIF食品创新展（FBIF超级选品会）将于2025年 5月8-10日 在国家会展中心（上海）举 办。 600+ 展商将参展， 100+ 全球渠道驻场对接， 2000+ 创新产品，将吸引 47000+ 观众观展， 300+ 位渠道与品牌嘉宾出席渠道晚宴。同期举办的FBIF2025食品饮料创新论坛将有200+位演讲嘉宾及评 委，7400+位行业嘉宾参会。 展览入场时间 | 活动 | 时间 | | --- | --- | | 展览参观 | 5月8-9日 9:00-17:00 | | | 5月10日 9:00-14:00 | 展览地点 国家会展中心（上海）4.2馆、5.2馆、6.2馆 上海市青浦区崧泽大道333号 2、5月9日 主题演讲:2025全球功能性饮料创新机遇 现代生活中,健康饮品需求增长,功能性饮料以其营养价值正重塑 市场。Innova将从全球消费者调研、全球/亚太/中国新品发布趋势等 维度对功能性饮料的健康趋势进行创新洞察。 3、5月9日 主题演讲:中国街饮趋势洞察 我们将总结2024年12月-2025年2月内中国市场的街饮新品创新情 况. 并提供了正在流行的趋势和下一步的街饮可关注方向。 ...

市场表现 2025 年 05 月 05 日 高景气度延续，盈利能力释放 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 164.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 297 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-164.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 177.48 | -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《万辰集团（300972）：拓店势 能延续，规模效应释放》2025-04- 20 2、《万辰集团（300972）：利润持 续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业 态》2025-01-26 3、《万辰集团（300972）：跑马圈 ...

昨天是五一假期的最后一天，上海的高架上车流不息，和平时一样拥堵起来。 我前天下午从南宁回到上海，从已经是夏天感觉的南疆回到华东，赶上昨天立夏的节气。事实上经常来 去不同地方的人们，对季节的快速更迭切换已经是非常自然的。 我在南宁吴圩机场看到有给来自北方的旅客准备的更衣间。和三亚、海口一样，广西有大量的来自东三 省和内蒙古的人来这里养老和谋生。比如在北海，开网约车的司机里超过一半来自东北和内蒙古，他们 既在这里养老生活，也靠此赚得一份还算体面的收入。 我在五一前规划了几条不同路线的自驾，比如陕西安康-汉中-宝鸡，浙西和江西等等。在中国的所有省 级行政区的省会或首府里，目前只有南宁和拉萨未踏足，这是今年需要填补上的。 南宁很多人都去过，很多人也和我推荐过，去那里比去拉萨要方便自如很多，毕竟拉萨还有高反的担 心。 我经常出差广州，从那里搭乘高铁到南宁两三小时就到，非常快。但偏偏总是行色匆匆，办完事就回来 了。 我没去过南宁，但去过广西，24年前的大学最后一个学期，报名了一个桂林旅行团，跟团游完了漓江山 水，那时候流行看LP或藏羚羊做旅行攻略，还没有大众点评和小红书。 1998年时任美国总统的克林顿和夫人希拉里到访中 ...

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight decline in the food and beverage index by 0.5%, ranking 13th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.1 percentage points. Other liquor categories (+2.2%), dairy products (+1.4%), and snacks (+1.4%) performed relatively well [10][12] - The food and beverage sector's revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a slight decrease from 6.6% in Q4 2024. Profit increased by 0.3%, a significant improvement from the -13.0% in Q4 2024. The liquor segment saw a revenue growth of 1.7% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 1.2% in Q4 2024, indicating resilience in consumption during the Spring Festival [10][11] - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the liquor industry, with high-end liquor and leading real estate liquor brands maintaining stable performance, while some mid-range brands experienced significant declines. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in liquor consumption as economic policies take effect [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes a pressured tone in Q1 results but indicates a month-on-month improvement. The food and beverage index's performance is under scrutiny, with specific attention to the liquor sector's resilience [10][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with a 0.5% decline in the index. The report identifies leading stocks and those that lagged behind, emphasizing the need for strategic focus on top-performing companies [10][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with specific data on dairy and meat prices indicating fluctuations that could impact the overall cost structure for food and beverage companies [17][23] Liquor Industry News - Notable developments include the pre-sale of Moutai's 2025 Dragon Boat Festival gift box and the launch of new products by Qingdao Beer, reflecting ongoing innovation and market engagement within the liquor sector [41][42] Memorandum - The report includes a memorandum highlighting significant upcoming events, such as the unlocking of restricted shares for Angel Yeast on May 9, which could influence market dynamics [43]

2025 年 05 月 05 日 高景气度延续，盈利能力释放 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 164.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 297 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-164.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 177.48 | 市场表现 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《万辰集团（300972）：拓店势 能延续，规模效应释放》2025-04- 20 2、《万辰集团（300972）：利润持 续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业 态》2025-01-26 3、《万辰集团（300972）：跑马圈 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 食品综合 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报总结： 零食继续领跑，餐饮链有望企稳 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 投资建议：2025Q1 以来消费品赛道市场关注度和估值水位都有提升， 我们维持看好内需消费的观点。1）零食是相对不受宏观周期影响的行 业，行业也具备结构性成长机会，后续从产业逻辑和企业的生命周期来 看，我们推荐三类公司：一是以门店为基础的万辰集团，万家门店之后 还有业态延伸、利润率提升的逻辑。二是有能力成为全品类、全渠道的 平台型公司，重点推荐盐津铺子。三是在品类、渠道、内部管理等方面 具备边际改善的公司，关注三只松鼠、西麦食品、有友食品、劲仔食品、 甘源食品、好想你等。2）速冻和连锁业态都属于典型的顺周期板块，和 下游餐饮业态的修复关联度较高，基本面上我们认为很多公司已经有触 底企稳的迹象，其次板块整体估值偏低位，有上修空间。我们推荐有一 定壁垒的安井食品和成长性突出的立高食品，关注绝味食品、巴比食品、 千味央厨等。 ◼ 风险提示：消费修复不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧风险、食品安全风险 ...

投资建议 白酒板块：本周年季报业绩期收官，整体而言：白酒板块 24 年年报及 25 年一季报的兑现度均较为不错，绝大多数酒 企的表观业绩高度契合市场预期。在当下白酒行业景气度仍有所承压的背景下，一方面市场期待酒企能发挥其品牌/ 渠道/组织等优越性，积极紧抓消费需求、拼抢巩固自身市场份额；另一方面，市场亦深知欲速则不达，只有基本面 底盘企稳、酒企方能伴随景气上行而厚积薄发。因此，业绩的平稳兑现已是行业磨底期酒企交出的不错答卷。 当下已至白酒消费淡季，酒企的营销重心也逐步倾斜至流通渠道稳价盘、团购商务做客情、宴席聚饮抢需求。从目前 的动销反馈来看，宴席场景动销普遍反馈可圈可点、部分区域因民俗因素致使今年宴席有所回补，但团购商务、聚饮 动销仍较承压。考虑到春糖后外部贸易环境等不确定性进一步提升，我们预计短期白酒行业动销或仍处于小幅回落的 磨底状态，拐点仍待促内需、顺周期相关政策落地后从需求端曳引。 目前我们维持行业景气度仍处于下行趋缓阶段的判断，类似上一轮周期中 14 年下半年至 15 年，该时期行业景气度不 再断崖式回落、尤其淡季动销绝对量占比相对较低，但需求侧仍缺乏足够强的拉力。考虑产业层面已处于磨底阶段， 白 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three squirrels (300783.SZ) has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong after its revenue returned to over 10 billion RMB, aiming to strengthen its position in the snack market through global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capability improvement, and strategic investments [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels has grown from a single nut product to the largest Chinese snack company, with revenue increasing from 924 million RMB in 2014 to 10.17 billion RMB in 2019, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.2% [2]. - The company faced a decline in revenue from 2020 to 2023, dropping to 7.115 billion RMB due to rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in offline expansion [2][3]. - In 2024, Three Squirrels' revenue rebounded to 10.622 billion RMB, marking a historical high, with a net profit of 408 million RMB [2][3]. Market Position - As of 2024, Three Squirrels ranks as the fourth largest snack company in China, with a retail revenue of 13.98 billion RMB and a market share of 3.2% [4][6]. - The company has the fastest CAGR among the top five snack companies in China, at 18.86% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. Industry Trends - The Chinese snack market is projected to grow from 1.0816 trillion RMB in 2019 to 1.344 trillion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.4% [7]. - Consumer demand is shifting towards healthier, personalized snacks, with increasing interest in low-sugar, low-fat, and high-protein options [11]. Competitive Landscape - The snack market is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 5.9% of the total market share, necessitating strong brand influence and product competitiveness for success [12]. - Three Squirrels has implemented a "high-end cost-performance" strategy to enhance product competitiveness and market share, but faces challenges in balancing cost control and pricing strategies [12][13]. Product and Pricing Strategy - In 2024, the average selling prices of core products such as nuts and baked goods decreased significantly, which may compress profit margins if low pricing is maintained [13]. - The company is exploring multi-brand and new product categories to diversify risks and identify new growth points, although some brands are still in the incubation stage [15]. Future Outlook - The IPO is a critical decision for Three Squirrels, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The company must effectively utilize the raised funds to address strategic, channel, and product innovation issues to enhance brand competitiveness and market adaptability [15].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "consumer empowerment" is driving the rapid growth of the high-value snack retail sector, exemplified by the listing application of Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang is formed from the strategic merger of two leading snack brands, "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," and has reached 14,394 stores nationwide by the end of 2024, establishing itself as a leader in the domestic snack retail industry [1] - The company emphasizes a consumer-centric selection system focused on quality-price ratio rather than merely relying on brand recognition and private label products [1] Group 2: Product Selection and Strategy - The selection team consists of over 180 members, employing a "selected + customized" model to ensure products align with consumer preferences through a four-step decision-making process [2] - Approximately 25% of the SKUs in inventory are customized products, and over 40% of products are sold in bulk, lowering the barrier for consumers to try new items [2] - The SKU library contains 3,380 products, with each store offering at least 1,800 SKUs, which is double that of traditional supermarkets, and the company introduces hundreds of new products monthly [2] Group 3: Business Model and Financial Performance - Unlike traditional supermarkets that rely on high margins, Mingming Hen Mang operates on a "low margin, high turnover" model, maintaining a gross margin of 7.5% to 7.6% in 2024, significantly lower than competitors like Yonghui Superstores and Gome Retail [3] - The net profit margin has increased from 1.7% in 2022 to 2.1% in 2024, indicating the sustainability of the retail model [3] - The company generates approximately 99.5% of its revenue from product sales, with minimal income from franchise fees, simplifying the supply chain by sourcing directly from manufacturers [3] Group 4: Market Position and Expansion - By the end of 2024, 58% of the stores are located in county and town markets, attracting over 1.6 billion consumer visits and achieving a membership base of 120 million with a 75% annual repurchase rate [3] - The company plans to use funds from its IPO to enhance product development, expand quality testing laboratories, optimize store displays, and improve franchise training systems [5] - Mingming Hen Mang's approach demonstrates that the snack retail sector can achieve sustainable growth through high-quality product selection, standardized operations, and data-driven rapid turnover [5]