中信证券：出海可能是新的方向 A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板块，半 年报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从半年报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一。从过去几年的 经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式； 从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入 成熟市场的必经之路。 今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随 着8月后贸易战预期逐步稳定、半年报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到半年报季 结束，依然建议围绕恒科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 国泰海通：科技主题仍是主线 6月以来主题交易热度持续回升，热点主题结构分化。海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加英伟达CEO黄仁勋来华的 积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走强；"反内卷"政 策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加剧，稳定币与跨境支付主题有所回调。 ...

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the A-share and Hong Kong stock market for quality media companies, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustainability of the current market trend for quality media companies, driven by global resonance in AI application commercialization and the self-consumption trends of Generation Z [2]. - It highlights the global competitive strength of sectors such as gaming, trendy toys, and AI tools, along with differentiated competition based on category and tone [2]. - The report identifies specific opportunities within the AI application chain, particularly in areas like AI advertising, education, and productivity tools, which are expected to see accelerated commercialization [2]. Summary by Sections AI Application - The report notes that the globalization and commercialization of AI applications are progressing rapidly, with significant potential in AI advertising, education, programming, and enterprise-level AI [2]. - Specific companies like Meitu and Kuaishou are highlighted for their strong growth potential in AI applications, with Meitu being noted for its unique global positioning and Kuaishou for exceeding commercialization expectations [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is experiencing short-term volatility; however, the fundamentals of key companies remain strong. New product launches are expected to stabilize performance [2]. - Companies like Giant Network and G-bits are mentioned for their upcoming releases and strong market positions [2]. Cloud Computing - AI is driving a recovery in cloud computing revenue growth, with a focus on internet cloud computing firms that have clear advantages in their own scenarios [2]. - Alibaba is specifically mentioned for its cloud computing direction, which is expected to continue to deliver value [2]. Consumer Trends - The report continues to recommend consumer brands like Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music, which are expected to benefit from market expansion and increasing paid user growth [2]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the gaming, film, and entertainment sectors, indicating growth rates and PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 [4].

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.58% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, with a focus on investment opportunities in companies with favorable mid-year report expectations [1][11]. - The report highlights optimism for the gaming sector and AI applications, particularly in AI companionship, education, and toys, as well as the monetization of intellectual property (IP) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking new AI applications and mature applications for investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The media sector's performance was negative, with a decline of 1.58%, while other sectors like telecommunications and pharmaceuticals showed positive growth [11]. - The top five gainers in the media sector included Century Tianhong (17.1%), Focus Technology (13.8%), and Youzu Network (11.9%) [14]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Jibite, and Giant Network, with additional attention on Perfect World and Iceberg Network [2][19]. - **AI**: Focus on companies like Dou Shen Education, Sheng Tian Network, and Shanghai Film, among others [2][19]. - **Education**: Companies such as Xueda Education and Fenbi are highlighted for their growth potential [2][19]. 3. Key Events Recap - OpenAI launched the "ChatGPT Agent," marking a significant advancement in automated AI agents capable of performing complex tasks [21]. - Chinese models dominated the global open-source model rankings, with Kimi K2 leading [21]. - Grok introduced an interactive digital companion feature, enhancing user engagement with AI [21]. 4. Sub-sector Data Tracking - The report notes the popularity of upcoming games and highlights the performance of key titles in the gaming market [22]. - The domestic film market's box office for the week was approximately 631 million yuan, with "Jurassic World: Rebirth" leading the rankings [25]. - The report also tracks viewership data for popular series and variety shows, indicating trends in audience preferences [26][27].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The recovery of H20 chip sales to China signals positive developments in US-China relations, with the approval of H20 chip sales and the introduction of RTX Pro GPU designed for the Chinese market by Nvidia's CEO [2][24] - The chip ban lift is seen as a pragmatic breakthrough in US-China technological cooperation, alleviating domestic computing power bottlenecks and reinforcing the effectiveness of the Geneva framework [2][24] - The regulatory emphasis on rational competition among major food delivery platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com aims to curb irrational subsidies and promote a healthy, sustainable development of the food service industry [2][24] - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding trade negotiations and continues to favor leading Chinese technology firms, suggesting that companies with foundational technology capabilities will gradually demonstrate their long-term investment value [3][25] Market Overview - During the week of July 14-18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 3.17% [1][11] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 7.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index rose by 2.84%, with the media sector lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.55 percentage points [1][11] - The SW Media Index fell by 2.24%, ranking last among 31 industries in terms of performance [1][11] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "The Lychee of Chang'an" with 121.17 million yuan (21.4% market share), "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Temple" with 76.42 million yuan (13.5%), and "The Legend of Hei 2" with 65.84 million yuan (11.6%) [27][28] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Delta Force," and "Peacekeeper Elite," while the top three Android games were "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "My Leisure Time" [30][31] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Morning Snow Record" (82.5), "Splendid Blossoms" (81.4), and "Book Scroll Dream" (81.1) [32][33] Variety and Animation - The top variety show was "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 80.5, followed by "Comedy King Stand-up Season 2" and "New Rap 2025" [34] - The top three animated shows were "Cang Yuan Tu" (352.3), "Happy Hammer" (259.9), and "Xian Ni" (232.7) [36]

中信证券研报称，A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够 形成资金共识的板块，中报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从中报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预 期线索之一；从过去几年的经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积 极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式；从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端 配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入成熟市场的必经之路。今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之 一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随着8月后贸易战预期逐步 稳定、中报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到中报季结束，依然建议围绕恒 科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 ...

2025年，美国年轻人的游戏支出大幅下降。 Circana的新数据显示，18至24岁的玩家在电子游戏上的购买支出同比减少了近25%，降幅超过其他任何年龄段。这一跌幅比科技产品、服装或配饰领域的 下滑更为显著——这些领域同样出现了支出下降。 尽管如此，这些数据已经改变了行业预测。Circana已将2025年美国游戏收入预期下调至565亿美元，较2024年下降4.7%，为2019年以来的最低水平。此前 的预测曾预计增长4.3%，这在很大程度上是基于《GTA 6》将在今年晚些时候推出的假设。 "消费者变得有些犹豫，"皮斯卡特拉说，"他们需要相信自己在游戏上的花费能带来足够的价值。" 今年1月至4月，该年龄段在所有品类上的支出下降了13%，而电子游戏的跌幅最为陡峭。 《华尔街日报》报道了这一数据，并指出经济压力是主要原因。去年秋季，美国学生贷款还款重启，信用卡违约率升至疫情前以来的最高水平——30岁以 下借款人的情况尤为严重。与此同时，游戏发行商将游戏价格提高到70或80美元，而游戏内购机制还在不断扩张。 《华尔街日报》的报道提到："年轻毕业生找工作变得困难得多。信用卡违约率已升至疫情前以来的最高点。" Circan ...

今日市场风格切换，银行、白酒等蓝筹上涨，上证50领涨，科技题材分化休整。资源股普涨，稀土因涨 价及新矿物发现、锂矿因"反内卷"逻辑和期货上涨带动小金属、有色金属板块。化工方面沧州大化两连 板。盘中诸多题材冲高回落，如CPO、Kimi概念等。军工、电气风电异动。游戏、消费电子等板块跌幅 居前。沪指三连阳创年内收盘新高，市场方向不明，资金在蓝筹与科技间摇摆。今晚宇树科技启动IPO 辅导，最快10月申请上市。管理层需指数"慢牛"实现IPO定向输血科技企业，目前指数可维持，后期 IPO增多难度或增大，一股君仍相对看好下半年科技风格。 股票名称["沧州大化","新易盛","中际旭创","建设工业","航天动力（维权）","电气风电"] 板块名称["银行","白酒","稀土","锂矿","小金属","有色金属","煤炭","TDI概念","CPO","Kimi概 念","AIAgent概念","军工","光刻机","游戏","消费电子","PCB","光伏"] 风格切换、慢牛、科技风格 看多看空沪指三连阳创出年内收盘新高，市场资金较为充裕，管理层需要指数"慢牛"来实现IPO定 向输血任务，且相对更看好下半年科技风格，所以 ...

Summary of Tencent Games Q1 2025 Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the gaming industry, specifically Tencent Games and its performance in Q1 2025. Key Points and Arguments Overall Performance - Tencent Games reported a strong overall performance in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of approximately 9% year-on-year, attributed to the successful launch of new products and seasonal factors during the Spring Festival [3][4][6]. Major Game Titles - **Honor of Kings**: Revenue reached 169 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of about 5%. The game performed well during the Spring Festival, with skin sales exceeding expectations [2][7]. - **Peacekeeper Elite**: Achieved a 9% year-on-year growth, with March revenue at 16.9 billion RMB. However, growth may slow due to internal competition from new FPS games [8]. - **Valorant**: Surpassed League of Legends in revenue, with an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by user growth following EDG's championship win [9]. - **League of Legends**: Experienced a 7% decline in revenue, attributed to user migration to mobile games and competition from Valorant [9][10]. New Game Releases - **DNF Mobile**: Generated nearly 40.5 billion RMB in Q1, but is expected to decline in Q2 due to user drop-off and content consumption [4][6]. - **Delta Force**: Revenue reached 11 billion RMB in Q1, with an annual target of 45 billion RMB [5][6]. - **Dark Zone Breakthrough**: Expected to launch soon, with a projected annual revenue of 32 billion RMB, though initial revenue may decline due to user overlap with Delta Force [11]. AI Integration and Innovation - Tencent is incorporating AI into existing games, enhancing gameplay features such as AI-driven dialogues and companions in titles like Honor of Kings and Monster Hunter Mobile [18]. - The introduction of AIGC technology has optimized the production process for in-game items, reducing production time by over 20% [12][14]. Future Outlook - The annual revenue forecast for DNF Mobile is 120 billion RMB, with a completion rate of 85-90%. Other new games like Dragon Festival and NBA2K are expected to generate 8 billion and under 5 billion RMB, respectively [6]. - Tencent anticipates a domestic market growth rate of 8-10% for the year, with quarterly fluctuations based on new releases and previous year comparisons [25]. Device Launch Plans - Tencent plans to launch a mobile console named 3D One, targeting the Steam Deck market, with pre-sales expected in late 2025 and shipments in 2026 [16][17]. Strategic Adjustments - Tencent is focusing on optimizing costs and reducing reliance on high-commission channels to enhance profit margins. This includes leveraging AI for workforce optimization and negotiating better terms with distribution partners [30]. Additional Important Content - Tencent's overseas products showed mixed results, with PUBG Mobile growing by 6% while Call of Duty Mobile declined by 13% [20]. - The company is actively exploring the two-dimensional game market, with several new titles in development and expected revenue projections [28][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from Tencent's Q1 2025 conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook in the gaming industry.