Core Viewpoint - The decision by a Chinese mineral company to suspend iron ore orders in Australian dollars marks a significant shift in the iron ore trade, indicating China's move towards reducing reliance on the US dollar for transactions [1][2][6]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China's suspension of dollar-denominated orders reflects its desire for greater control over pricing and settlement methods in the iron ore market [6][12]. - Australia has historically dominated the iron ore trade, but China's changing procurement strategy, including diversifying sources from Africa, South America, and Russia, threatens this dominance [8][10]. - The shift to renminbi settlement is not merely a currency change but a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with dollar-based transactions [6][11]. Group 2: Australian Concerns - Australia's strong reaction stems from fears of losing its leading position in the iron ore market, as China is no longer a "unconditional buyer" [8][10]. - The Australian government is concerned that accepting renminbi could diminish its negotiating power in future transactions [10][12]. - Australia's reliance on iron ore exports makes it vulnerable, as it lacks other significant resources to offer [10][12]. Group 3: Future Implications - The move towards renminbi settlement could extend to other commodities, potentially reshaping global resource market dynamics [11][12]. - China's approach aims to create a more sustainable and controllable trading environment, which could lead to a reconfiguration of global trade rules [12][13]. - Both countries need to adapt to these changes to maintain a cooperative relationship, as resistance may lead to Australia becoming more passive in future negotiations [13].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251017 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙、何天 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外避险情绪发酵，A 股分化扩大 海外方面，市场情绪明显转谨。美国政府持续停摆，参议院第十次否决临时拨款法案， 两家地区银行曝出贷款欺诈与坏账，信贷风险担忧升温，市场警惕更大范围信用危机酝酿。 俄美总统时隔近两月再度通话，特朗普拟于布达佩斯会晤普京。美元指数回落至 98.2，10 年 期美债收益率跌破 4.0%，美股全线走低，金价加速上行站稳 4300 美元，油价跌逾 1%，铜 价小幅收跌。在政府关门导致经济数据缺位背景下，近期关注美联储官员讲话、24 日 CPI 数 据及月末 APEC 中美元首会晤，在局势明朗前预计海外避险情绪或继续发酵。 国内方面，A 股宽幅震荡、分化扩大，高切低迹象继续演绎，煤炭、银行、保险为代表 的红利指数表现占优，而成长、科技板块延续跌势，两市超 4000 只个股收跌、成交额缩量 至 2 万亿下方，在中美博弈尚未明朗、海外避险情绪仍在加速下，短期股市震荡偏弱看待； 中长期看，流动性宽松与基本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][2][9] Core Insights - The company reported a significant Q3 performance exceeding market expectations, with a revenue of 7.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.71%, and a net profit of 9.51 billion yuan, up 66.49% [1][4] - The growth in Q3 was primarily driven by the performance of Jilong Copper and potassium chloride businesses, despite the suspension of lithium carbonate production for over two months [1][4] - The lithium carbonate business resumed production in early October [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.01 billion yuan, a 3.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.51 billion yuan, up 47.26% [1][4] - The company expects EPS for 2025 to be 2.19 yuan, with projected PE ratios of 26, 18, and 15 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][4] - Key financial metrics for 2025 include a projected revenue of 33.71 billion yuan and a net profit of 34.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.3% [2][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - **Overall Inventory**: The total port inventory was 14,278.27 this week, an increase of 253.77 from last week. The 247 - steel mill import ore inventory was 8,982.73, a decrease of 63.46 from last week. The 45 - port to - arrival volume was 3,045.8, an increase of 437.1 from last week [1]. - **Inventory by Type**: The port's coarse powder inventory was 11,229.2 this week, an increase of 243.8 from last week. The block ore inventory was 1,784.05, an increase of 53.75 from last week. The pellet inventory was 261.79, an increase of 2.7 from last week. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,003.23, a decrease of 46.48 from last week [1]. - **Trade and Origin - based Inventory**: The trade ore inventory at ports was 9,208.11 this week, an increase of 63.19 from last week. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5,684, an increase of 147.47 from last week. The Australian ore inventory was 5,869.73, an increase of 89.3 from last week [1]. - **Supply - Demand Indicators**: The 45 - port daily average ore - dispatching volume was 315.72, a decrease of 11.28 from last week. The 247 - steel mill import ore daily consumption was 297.35, a decrease of 1.79 from last week. The 247 - steel mill daily average hot - metal output was 240.95, a decrease of 0.59 from last week. The 247 - steel mill blast - furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 84.27. The 247 - steel mill capacity utilization rate was 90.33, a decrease of 0.22 from last week. The 247 - steel mill profitability rate was 55.41, a decrease of 0.87 from last week. The 126 - mine iron concentrate powder output was 39.97, an increase of 0.45 from last week [1].

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported strong performance in Q3, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, alongside progress in key projects, laying a solid foundation for long-term development [1][2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3, Cangge Mining achieved revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.71%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 951 million yuan, up 66.49% [2] - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 2.401 billion yuan, a 3.35% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.751 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.26% growth [2] Production and Sales - The company completed 70.16% and 82.51% of its annual production and sales targets for potassium chloride by the end of Q3 2025 [4] - The average selling price of potassium chloride increased by 26.88% year-on-year, while the average sales cost decreased by 19.12%, leading to a gross margin increase of 20.78% [4] Investment Contributions - Cangge Mining's investment in Jilong Copper contributed significantly, with copper production of 142,500 tons and net profit of 6.421 billion yuan, resulting in an investment income of 1.95 billion yuan, accounting for 70.89% of the company's net profit for the period [4] Project Development - Key projects are progressing steadily, including the Marmicuo Salt Lake project, which has completed photovoltaic power station construction contracts and is advancing land use procedures [5] - The company is also making progress on the lithium hydroxide processing project and the Laos potassium salt mine project, laying the groundwork for future growth [5][6] Resource Expansion - Cangge Potash obtained mining rights for additional minerals, including magnesium and lithium, enhancing its resource reserves and competitive edge [6] - The company is actively pursuing exploration and project preparation for various potassium salt mines, ensuring a diversified development strategy [7]

今年以来，外资持续加大对华战略性布局， 多家国际机构调高对中国经济增长预期。据最新数据显示， 自2024年以来，亚太地区的私募股权并购 交易活动呈现显著反弹。 市场情绪虽然复杂，但交易活动明显活跃，2025年亚太私募股权市场有望迎来交易热潮，企业投资者可能率先推动并购，进而提振私募股权投资者 信心。 在经历深层次结构变化后，一级市场也 投资策略持续演变，市场趋势也不断涌现。 中东主权财富基金、东南亚家族办公室等长期资本明显加大对中 国科技制造、能源转型、消费升级等核心赛道的投入。 一度放缓的美元基金正在重新审视中国资产，多家头部机构悄然重启募资并完成新一轮关账。更多基金采取"双币配置、产业纵深"策略，通过QFLP 等机制深化跨境运营，在挖掘中国供应链与技术创新的同时，积极嫁接亚太区域资源与合作网络。 为深化亚太区域经济协作，激活全球资本高效流动，促进中国企业"走出去"，倡导外国企业"引进来"， Asia Pacific Fortune Forum 2025 （简 称：APFOF 2025）（中文：2025亚太母基金财富论坛）将以CapTech2025为主题于本年度11月12日-14日在澳大利亚悉尼举办。 在全 ...

花旗坚持其铝的"结构性看涨"立场，认为年超300万吨的需求增长与印尼无法成为"下一个中国"的供应 瓶颈将推高价格。然而，报告坦承在LME周上遭遇了"重大反驳"。尽管无人能推翻其需求数据，但市场 对结论的广泛分歧，暗示着铝价上行之路并非共识。 我们对铝的结构性看涨前景受到了一些阻力，但无人能挑战支撑我们的分析数据。趋势性的 铝终端需求增长要求在可预见的未来每年增加超过300万吨的供应……中国的原生铝加工政 策表明，政府现在可以接受境外铝与中国铝竞争……标志着他们愿意将电力优先分配给数据 中心/AI和机器人等其他行业。 铜市共识看涨，锌市前景黯淡 花旗研究在10月16日发布的《Metal Matters》报告中，提炼了本年度LME周的市场核心情绪：对铝的看 法严重分歧，对铜的牛市几乎成为共识，而对锌的熊市预期则伴随着挥之不去的短期不确定性。 这份来自全球金属交易核心地带的快照，为投资者揭示了未来12-18个月的关键交易逻辑与潜在风险。 铝市分歧加剧，多空激辩 与铝不同，市场对铜的未来普遍看涨，但看涨逻辑各异。花旗报告指出，这些逻辑"涵盖了纸面上的 2026年赤字、宏观驱动的资金流入……以及为利用COMEX-LME ...

上证180ETF指数基金紧密跟踪上证180指数，上证180指数从沪市证券中选取市值规模较大、流动性较好的180只证券作为样本，反映上海证券市场核心上市 公司证券整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年9月30日，上证180指数(000010)前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台(600519)、紫金矿业(601899)、恒瑞医药(600276)、药明康德(603259)、 中国平安(601318)、中芯国际(688981)、寒武纪(688256)、工业富联(601138)、招商银行(600036)、海光信息(688041)，前十大权重股合计占比26.75%。 近期市场短期震荡，但不改变股市长期慢牛趋势。长期来看，红利类资产和科技类资产有望长期有超额收益，杠铃策略有望再受关注。一方面随着居民资产 配置逐渐加大权益市场的配置，红利类资产有望最先受益；另一方面，科技类资产代表经济发展趋势，长期发展确定性强。上证180指数自带杠铃型策略： 90%红利+10%科技，是配置权益市场的良好品种。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | ...

恒生指数低开0.14%，恒生科技指数跌0.07%。新东方跌超5%，金沙中国跌超1%。紫金矿业涨超5%， 蔚来涨近6%。 国泰海通研报称，港股市场IPO增量显著，有望进一步推动投行业务收入增长。 东吴证券认为，关税重回视野，港股短期波动风险加大。往后看，中长期上行趋势还在。其一，短期中 美关税问题超市场预期，或导致港股有回调风险。叠加近期美股AI泡沫叙事再起，港股AI科技方向短 期波动或会加大。资金会转向避险行业。其二，除关税外，投资者仍关心本月四中全会十五五规划定调 会。如果政策超预期，市场修复力度会更强。其三，中长期看，我们对港股并不悲观。一是，全球仍处 在降息周期，货币宽松背景下，股市仍有上涨空间;二是，AI产业趋势不可阻挡，中国AI产业加速，港 股科技龙头仍有上涨空间。三是，我们认为明年一季度，经济基本面和企业盈利会进一步改善。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。 关于港股后市 浦银国际指出，近期中美贸易摩擦再度升级将提升短期市场的不确定性，若贸易摩擦进一步升级，或将 导致市场波动加大。该行认为，在当前市场对贸易谈判预期更充分、资金面更宽裕、盈利开始成为市场 驱动力的情况下，短期回调难以改变港 ...

"（IPO）非常强劲。" 近日，香港财政司司长陈茂波在接受公开采访时表示，目前有超过200家企业正排队等待在香港进行首 次公开募股（IPO）。 陈茂波指出，这一趋势背后的主要驱动力，是中国内地企业日益增长的全球化需求。 对于走向全球的内地企业而言，利用香港作为平台来筹集资金和招揽人才，以帮助它们进行 海外扩张，是一个非常好的商业选择。 在市场活动升温的背景下，外界正密切关注即将在下月由香港金融管理局（HKMA）主办的全球银行 家峰会。此次峰会将成为衡量国际金融界对香港信心的重要指标。 港股IPO持续火热，三季度募资额创四年新高 陈茂波对此表示，目前峰会的反响"极其热烈"，已有约100位首席执行官或董事长级别的高管计划出 席。 他将此次活动形容为"亚洲商界领袖不容错过的盛会"。 风险提示及免责条款 市场的热烈反应印证了这一观点。香港股市自去年底以来大幅反弹，基准的恒生指数在2025年已上涨 29%，成为全球表现最佳的发达市场之一。这股涨势得到了全球投资者的积极参与，据陈茂波透露，目 前市场交易量的一半来自欧洲、美国、中东及亚洲其他地区的投资者，另一半则来自中国内地。 香港的股票发行市场在2025年迎来了丰收年。 ...