作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of China's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a modest growth in imports and exports despite external challenges, with a focus on the role of private enterprises and the impact of international trade dynamics [1][2]. Trade Data Summary - In the first quarter, China's total goods trade reached 10.3 trillion yuan, growing by 1.3%. Exports amounted to 6.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.9%, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, decreasing by 6% [4]. - The growth rate of imports and exports showed a monthly recovery, with a decline of 2.2% in January, stability in February, and a growth of 6% in March [4]. Private Enterprises Performance - Private enterprises' imports and exports reached 5.85 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8%, accounting for 56.8% of the total trade. They achieved growth in trade with nearly 180 countries and regions [5][9]. - Exports of high-tech products by private enterprises hit a historical high, nearing 1 trillion yuan, with significant growth in industrial robots (67.4%) and high-end machine tools (16.4%) [5][10]. Mechanical and Electrical Products - The import and export of mechanical and electrical products totaled 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%, with notable increases in household appliances, laptops, and electronic components for exports, and automatic data processing equipment and marine engineering equipment for imports [6]. Key Provinces and Cities - The seven major provinces and cities (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Shandong, Fujian) accounted for 7.78 trillion yuan in trade, representing three-quarters of China's total trade, demonstrating a sustained growth trend [7]. International Trade Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's trade, emphasizing the need for multilateral cooperation to address global trade challenges. China is committed to defending its trade rights and maintaining a fair international trade environment [12][15]. - Despite external pressures, China's export resilience is highlighted, with a focus on diversifying markets and strengthening supply chain collaborations [13]. Future Trade Outlook - The article expresses optimism regarding China's trade relations with the EU, noting the mutual benefits and cooperation potential in maintaining open trade and investment channels [22]. - China's commitment to high-level opening-up and mutually beneficial economic cooperation is reiterated, alongside the importance of expanding imports to share development opportunities globally [23][18].

Core Insights - The total import and export value of electromechanical products in China reached 5.29 trillion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a growth of 7.7% [1] Export Highlights - Notable growth in exports was observed in household appliances, laptops, and electronic components [1] Import Highlights - Significant increases in imports were seen for automatic data processing equipment parts, ships, and marine engineering equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China due to the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," which are deemed excessive and unilateral, undermining international trade order [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - The U.S. frequent changes in tariff measures have left many foreign trade enterprises in confusion, significantly suppressing foreign trade transactions and leading to a notable downward effect on global trade scale [2][17]. - The "tariff stick" wielded by the U.S. has become a major source of uncertainty in the global foreign trade market, overshadowing the growth prospects of global trade [2][17]. - The current market panic, exacerbated by U.S. tariff measures and protectionist actions, has led to a rise in the U.S. market panic index to levels seen in spring 2020, negatively impacting consumer confidence and market demand [2][17]. Group 2: Nature of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China are no longer reciprocal in nature, with rates exceeding 50% and in some cases over 100%, categorizing them as "extortionate tariffs" that severely hinder normal trade operations [4][6]. - The high tariff levels have rendered international trade nearly impossible for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, which operate in a highly competitive environment with limited profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: China's Response Strategy - China has adopted a "combination punch" strategy involving "increased tariffs + demand restrictions + policy coordination" to counter U.S. measures, achieving some effectiveness [7][16]. - Demand-side restrictions have been implemented, such as reducing the import quota for U.S. films and issuing travel warnings for studying and tourism in the U.S., targeting the service trade sector where the U.S. has a significant surplus [7][16]. - A policy matrix focusing on "list control + qualification review + market access restrictions" has been established to ensure precision and sustainability in China's countermeasures against the U.S. [7][16]. Group 4: Affected Industries - The sectors most impacted by the tariffs include machinery and electronics, textiles and apparel, furniture and toys, metals and products, transportation equipment, personal computers, and chemicals, with significant export values reported for each category [5][6]. - The anticipated impact on U.S.-China trade is expected to be substantial, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025, affecting production and trade chains, and potentially leading to negative consequences for employment and economic growth [6].

Group 1 - Southbound funds significantly net bought 28.79 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks on April 3, marking the second-highest single-day net purchase in history, following 29.63 billion HKD on March 10, 2025 [1] - The net purchases included 16.99 billion HKD from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 11.80 billion HKD from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating strong investor confidence in the market [1] Group 2 - Zai Ding Pharmaceutical announced the grant of stock options and restricted stock units totaling 65.78 thousand shares of American Depositary Shares to 40 and 381 recipients respectively, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth [2] - The stock incentive plan aims to attract and retain talent, which could positively impact the company's performance [2] Group 3 - Huolala submitted its fifth listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting a revenue of 1.593 billion USD for the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 19.39% [3] - The listing application is backed by major investors including Hillhouse Capital and Sequoia China, indicating strong market interest [3] Group 4 - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining exercised its overallotment option, issuing 30.84 million H-shares at a price of 13.72 HKD per share, increasing the total issued shares from 205.7 million to 236.5 million [4] - This move demonstrates the company's financing capability and market demand [4] Group 5 - Zhao Wei Electromechanical plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating the company's intention to expand into international markets [5] - The company will consider the interests of existing shareholders and market conditions when determining the timing of the issuance [5]

兆丰股份: 关于股份回购完成暨股份变动的公告 证券代码：300695 证券简称：兆丰股份 公告编号：2025-013 浙江兆丰机电股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 浙江兆丰机电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 3 月 25 日召开 第五届董事会第十六次会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》。公 司拟使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购的股份将用于实施股 权激励或员工持股计划。本次回购股份的价格不超过人民币 56.50 元/股（含）。 回购资金总额不低于人民币 5,000.00 万元（含），不超过人民币 10,000.00 万元（含）。 具体回购数量以回购完毕或回购实施期限届满时公司的实际回购情况为准。回购 股份的实施期限自公司董事会审议通过回购股份方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内容 详见公司于 2024 年 4 月 2 日在巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的 《回购股份报告书》（公告编号：2024-032）。 鉴于公司 2024 年半年度权益分派事项已实施完毕， ...