行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 有色金属研究团队 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 20日沪铝延续跌势向2万关口迈进，主力 2507最低至 20005，尾盘收于20075， 下跌 0.45%，指数总持仓减少 5569 至 515961 手。现货上，华东与巩义市场成交 一般，但华东到货减少给予当地现货升水支撑，但高铝价下下游按需采购，上涨 动力稍显不足，华东升 70，中原平水，华南贴水-35，现货进口亏损收窄至-1100 元/吨左右。氧 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Guinea has revoked mining rights for several bauxite mines, including the Axis mine, which is expected to produce 24 million tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 5% of global demand [1] - DBS Bank predicts that if this situation persists, it may reverse the declining trend in bauxite prices that has been ongoing since Q2 2025, potentially leading to tighter supply [1] - China's domestic bauxite resources are limited, meeting only about 30% of its demand, while Guinea accounts for over 80% of China's imports [1] - The revocation of mining rights in Guinea may alleviate the oversupply of alumina in China, driving prices to recover from their lows [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - China Hongqiao (01378) holds a 25% stake in SMB in Guinea, which has established mature transportation channels capable of providing 55 million tons of bauxite annually, sufficient to meet its domestic alumina production needs, thus unaffected by the mining rights revocation [2] - China Hongqiao has an alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons in China and is expected to benefit directly from the increase in alumina prices, enhancing its business profit margins [2] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reported a decline in overseas alumina prices in Q1 2025, with the average price around $518 per ton, a 40.88% increase year-on-year but a 2.98% decrease compared to the average price in 2024 [2] - China Aluminum (02600) reported annual revenue of approximately 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, with a net profit of about 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [3] - The alumina segment of China Aluminum achieved a pre-tax profit of 11.685 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous year, while the primary aluminum segment saw a pre-tax profit decline of 2.288 billion yuan [3]

【文/观察者网 陈思佳】美国总统特朗普公布其关税政策后，日本迅速与美国展开谈判，试图"率先达成 贸易协议"。但由于双方未能在汽车和钢铝关税等问题上达成一致，日本政商界也强烈反对任何危及国 家利益的协议，日本政府不得不改变立场，开始与美国"周旋"。 据路透社5月20日报道，日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正在当天的例行新闻发布会上表 示，日本将坚持要求美国取消关税，不会支持损害日本利益的贸易协议。赤泽将在本周前往华盛顿，可 能在当地时间23日与美国贸易代表格里尔进行第三轮谈判。 赤泽在新闻发布会上说："美国的一系列关税，包括'对等关税'以及对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝的 关税，令人遗憾。我们寻求撤销所有关税的立场没有改变。" 他表示，日美两国官员已于当地时间19日在华盛顿举行工作层面的贸易谈判，第三轮部长级谈判的时间 尚未确定。 英文的《日本时报》表示，日本将在下一轮谈判中采取何种立场一直不明朗，官员们反复呼吁美国"重 新审视"这些措施。这一表述含糊不清，可以解读为日本在某种程度上愿意妥协。但赤泽彻底澄清了这 一点，确认了日方的强硬立场。 "我与首相在理解上不存在任何分歧，"他接着说，"我从谈判一开始的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in alumina prices is primarily driven by disruptions in Guinea's mining policies, particularly the revocation of mining licenses, which has notably impacted supply dynamics [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - Guinea's mining authority issued a work stoppage order for the Axis mining area, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with a 2024 production estimate of 23 million tons [3]. - The revocation of mining licenses for 46 companies in Guinea has escalated supply concerns, leading to a sharp increase in alumina futures prices [3][4]. - Guinea is the largest bauxite producer globally, with its output accounting for 69.4% of China's alumina imports, making it a critical supplier [4]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Capacity - As of May 15, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10,922 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8,412 million tons per year, reflecting a decrease in the operating rate to 77.02% [6]. - The decline in domestic alumina production is attributed to significant profit drops, with average operating rates falling from 86.1% in March to 84.6% in April [6][7]. - The industry is currently experiencing low operating rates, with planned maintenance and project delays contributing to reduced supply pressure [7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term alumina prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and a tightening market, although medium-term oversupply risks persist [8][10]. - The anticipated addition of 1.14 million tons of new alumina capacity in China by 2025, along with 400,000 tons from overseas, may outpace demand growth, leading to potential price pressures [8]. - Key factors to monitor include the ongoing developments in Guinea's mining policies, domestic production capacity changes, and the operating rates of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants [9][10].

Group 1 - Australia Trade and Tourism Minister Don Farrell rejects pressure from the Trump administration to align on trade issues against China, emphasizing that China is a larger buyer of Australian exports [1] - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, leading to a positive response from global markets and a recovery in Australia-China trade relations [3] - The Australian consumer confidence index rose by 2.2% in May, reflecting a recovery from the impacts of the global trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [5] Group 2 - Australia is negotiating with the US to remove tariffs on Australian goods, but the country is not rushing the process due to its reliance on resource exports to China [6] - Ten Australian meat companies have been granted permission to export sheep and goat meat to China, marking a significant expansion in the market and providing a balance against US tariffs [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Longkou Nanshan New Energy Co., Ltd., with an investment of 5 million yuan to develop photovoltaic energy, aligning with the national "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Nanshan Aluminum has formed a complete aluminum processing industry chain, including power generation, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting, and recycling [1] - The company reported a revenue of 33.477 billion yuan in 2024, a 16.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.956 billion yuan, up 48.81% from the previous year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2024, domestic alumina prices rose significantly, averaging around 3,994 yuan per ton, a 38% increase year-on-year, driven by tight supply and high demand [2] - The average price of primary aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, despite fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [2] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The establishment of the new subsidiary is expected to enhance the company's green image and competitiveness in the market for low-carbon products, supporting its long-term development and operational efficiency [3] - This investment aligns with the company's strategic planning and will not adversely affect its financial status or operations, ensuring the interests of the company and its shareholders are protected [3]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum futures [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the traditional off - season is approaching, the rush for exports may be near the end, the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum price is under pressure. Without other positive factors, it's difficult for the aluminum price to rise further. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - For alumina, the spot price follows the strong trend of the futures market. The futures price has risen due to disturbances at the Guinea ore end. Although the bauxite imports increased significantly from January to April and there may be no supply gap even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,110 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,125 yuan/ton, closed at 20,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 199,900 lots, an increase of 63,926 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 201,358 lots, a decrease of 2,699 lots [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,938 yuan/ton, closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan/ton (6.25%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 2,886,512 lots, an increase of 1,465,036 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 310,945 lots, a decrease of 32,504 lots [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Transactions - On May 19, 2025, 2,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Henan at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan/ton. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina spot at a delivered price between 3,400 - 3,470 yuan/ton. 10,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Shanxi at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan/ton [3]

2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 7 | | 锌：上方承压 | 9 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价再度大幅下挫，弱势运行或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，供需过剩 | 17 | | 多晶硅：基本面弱势，盘面存下行驱动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：成本或存下移，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：现货价格支撑，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 19 日沪铝冲高回落，盘中最高冲至 20300，但随后转跌，尾盘小幅收跌 0.2%， 报收于 20110。指数总持仓减少 14465 至 521530 手。现货进口亏损维持在-1300 元/吨左右。氧化铝大幅上行，盘中各合约触及涨停，尾盘远月多合约涨停收盘， 主因上周几内亚采矿许可证撤销的矿区被下发停产通知，引发市场对铝土矿原料 供应担忧，但实质性影响暂有限，仍需跟踪评估，短期情绪 ...