1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline in the current week, but the increase in the BCI freight rate index drove the BDI comprehensive freight rate index to strengthen. The shipping volumes of corn, soybean meal, and coal continued to increase significantly, and the shipping volume of iron ore remained at a high level. The demand for shipping boosted the demand for Capesize and Handysize vessels, supporting the rise of the BCI and BHSI freight rate indices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: On July 28, compared with the previous week, the increase in the BDI comprehensive freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index continued to expand slightly, while the adjustment range of the BPI and BSI freight rate indices widened. The BDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 2,226 points, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,774 points, a week - on - week increase of 26.60%; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1,798 points, a week - on - week decrease of 6.11%; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,289 points, a week - on - week decrease of 4.23%; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 680 points, a week - on - week increase of 0.74% [3]. - **FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On July 28, the FDI index declined across the board, and the decline widened. Most of the freight rates in the Capesize vessel rental market of the FDI rental index changed from rising to falling. The FDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 1,332.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%; the FDI rental index closed at 1,625.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [7]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking - **Number of Shipping Vessels in Shipping Countries on the Day**: On July 29, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 37 shipping vessels, Russia used 5, Argentina used 22, and Australia used 5. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 49, Guinea used 26, Indonesia used 33, Russia used 23, South Africa used 18, Brazil used 15, and the United States used 14 [11]. - **Analysis of Shipping Volume and Vessel Demand on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipping, 25 vessels were used for corn shipping, 13 for wheat, 18 for soybeans, 18 for soybean meal, and 10 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 105 vessels were used for coal shipping, 71 for iron ore, and 12 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 33 Ultra - Panamax vessels, followed by 17 Supramax vessels and 21 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 73 Capesize vessels, followed by 68 Ultra - Panamax vessels and 59 Supramax vessels [12]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports The number of vessels at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa continued to increase week - on - week. From July 1 to July 28, the number of dry bulk vessels docked at ports in China increased significantly by 16 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 9 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 4 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at five Brazilian ports decreased by 1 week - on - week [12]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight Rates and Commodity Prices - On July 28, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,972.56 yuan per ton. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,223 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $114.6 per thousand tons. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,781 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 532.98 yuan per ton. - On July 28, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 679.8 points. On August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impacts on copper are limited. Downstream anti - involution is more negative than positive for demand, and the hydropower station's early - stage copper demand is low. The increase in copper prices seems to be a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. Short - term copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution hype fades. This week is a macro super - week with significant events that will cause large copper price fluctuations [3] Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, low LME inventory levels, low - hovering US dollar index, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Data - **Shanghai Copper Main**: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6] - **Shanghai Copper Continuous 1**: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.32%) [8] - **Shanghai Copper Continuous 3**: Price is 7,8960 yuan/ton, with no daily change [8] - **LME Copper 3M**: Price is 9,762.5 dollars/ton, down 33.5 dollars (-0.34%) [8] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The ratio is 8.12, up 0.06 (0.74%) [8] Copper Spot Data - **Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper**: Price is 79,075 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - **Shanghai Wumaotrade**: Price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan (-0.55%) [10] - **Guangdong Nanchu**: Price is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - **Yangtze Non - ferrous**: Price is 79,270 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.46%) [10] Copper Scrap Spread - **Current Scrap Spread (Tax - included)**: Price is 959.89 yuan/ton, up 119.15 yuan (14.17%) [12] - **Reasonable Scrap Spread (Tax - included)**: Price is 1,490.45 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.13%) [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Copper Warehouse Receipts**: Total is 17,832 tons, up 1,699 tons (10.53%) [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: Total is 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons (-0.84%) [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: Total is 250,819 tons, up 7,456 tons (3.06%) [20] Copper Import and Processing - **Copper Import Profit and Loss**: Price is - 341.58 yuan/ton, up 140.92 yuan (-29.21%) [21] - **Copper Concentrate TC**: Price is - 42.75 dollars/ton, with no change [21]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3597.94 points, up 0.12% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to 11217.58 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.96% to 2362.60 points [2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17.423 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [2] PCB Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector, represented by PCB (Printed Circuit Board) concepts, led the market with significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - Notable performers included Fangbang Shares, Junya Technology, and Pengding Holdings, with Shenghong Technology surging over 17% [3] - At least 10 PCB companies have released half-year performance forecasts, with Shengyi Electronics expecting a net profit increase of 432% year-on-year [3] - The demand for high-end PCBs is rapidly growing due to AI computing needs, with projections indicating a supply-demand gap for AI PCBs by 2026 [3] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, performed well, with the Shenwan Securities Index rising by 0.68% [4] - Major brokerages like Zhongyin Securities and Huatai Securities saw significant stock price increases, with at least 12 brokerages forecasting over 100% growth in net profit for the first half of the year [4][5] - The insurance sector benefited from economic recovery, with a notable increase in the sales of savings-type products [5] Resource Sector Dynamics - The resource sector experienced significant divergence, with coal, steel, and oil sectors undergoing substantial corrections [6] - Futures markets saw sharp declines in black and new energy commodities, with major contracts for coking coal and lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit down [6] - Several brokerages have warned of trading risks in the resource sector, suggesting that the recent price surges were driven by policy expectations and market sentiment [6] Investment Themes - In the medium to long term, institutions suggest focusing on undervalued sectors within the "anti-involution" theme, including polyurethane, LED, and semiconductor precursor materials [7] - The "anti-involution" theme has begun to expand, with specific commodities like red dates experiencing price fluctuations [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index showed a mild upward trend with narrow - range fluctuations today, and the trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. The basis of each futures variety and the option position PCR had mixed changes, indicating no obvious change in market sentiment. After digesting last week's positive news, the stock index may return to a mild upward state. This week, focus on the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting. If there is more positive news than expected, it may drive the stock index up; if it is lower than market expectations, the stock index may adjust, but the overall positive trend remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [4] Market Review - The stock index fluctuated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.21%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC rose with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM fell with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing it as an important measure for the public. Local governments should refine work plans and allocate subsidy funds on time. - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly, and the driving effect of the "two new" policies continued to appear [3] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.09 | - 0.04 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2993 | 4.6357 | 8.8191 | 18.6257 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.0547 | - 0.087 | 1.1258 | 2.6844 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.3839 | 9.5447 | 22.869 | 33.8751 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.3663 | - 0.1993 | 0.3134 | 1.1728 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.12 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.44 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17423.07 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 450.29 | [5]

Group 1 - The event "Capital Assistance, Lu Power Forward - 'Yujian Options' Training Class (Jinan)" was held to enhance the understanding and application of options knowledge among futures practitioners in Shandong [2][3] - The training aimed to address the increasing demand for refined risk management by enterprises due to heightened global economic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [2][3] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has made significant progress in supporting high-quality development of the real economy through various initiatives in options business, including the launch of new options products and the introduction of innovative margin policies [3] Group 2 - The training covered a wide range of topics, including market operation, trading rules, options pricing principles, strategy application, and enterprise risk management [4] - Experts from various institutions provided insights into options strategies, market analysis indicators, and practical applications of options in enterprise risk management [4] - Participants reported that the training effectively combined theoretical knowledge with practical needs, enhancing their professional level in utilizing options tools for the real economy [6] Group 3 - The association plans to continue collaborating with ZCE and other futures exchanges to conduct multi-level and diverse training activities, strengthening the talent pool in the industry [6]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, the short - term impact of both factors on copper should be limited. The supply side has no significant over - capacity to eliminate, and anti - involution in the downstream is more negative than positive for demand. The long construction cycle of the hydropower station means low initial copper demand. The increase in copper prices was likely a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, copper prices may decline slightly. The upcoming week is a macro super - week with significant events that could cause large price fluctuations in copper during the last week of July [3]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,250 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,250 | - 640 | - 0.8% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,240 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,796 | - 58.5 | - 0.59% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | ratio | 8.06 | - 0.06 | - 0.74% | [6][8] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,450 | - 345 | - 0.43% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,535 | - 220 | - 0.28% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 79,380 | - 270 | - 0.34% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,640 | - 280 | - 0.35% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | - 20 | - 13.79% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 10 | 9.52% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | 0 | 0% | [10] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Data | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 840.74 | - 463.62 | - 35.54% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,492.45 | - 5.7 | - 0.38% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 651.71 | - 457.92 | 236.3% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,545 | - 470 | - 7.81% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,199.6 | - 39.56 | - 0.63% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 654.6 | - 430.44 | 192.02% | [12] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31%. International Copper warehouse receipts total 4,667 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai are 4,565 tons, a decrease of 1.08%. Bonded total is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Tax - paid total is 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31% [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: Total LME copper inventory is 128,475 tons, an increase of 2.97%. European inventory is 26,200 tons, a decrease of 4.38%. Asian inventory is 102,275 tons, an increase of 5.03%. North American inventory is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,625 tons, an increase of 4.48%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 18,850 tons, a decrease of 5.04% [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: Total COMEX copper inventory is 248,635 tons, an increase of 2.39%. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,064 tons, an increase of 1%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 139,571 tons, a decrease of 0.22% [20] Copper Import and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 482.5 | - 9.52 | 2.01% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.75 | 0.15 | - 0.35% | [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market theme remained clear this week, but the strength of the market exceeded expectations. Some varieties showed signs of taking over the upward trend on Friday. The exchange resolved the position - holding risk of the coking coal 09 contract through position limits and promoted position transfer. The overall market's bullish trend is unlikely to reverse completely due to position limits, but future market movements may not be as intense, and differentiation will be more obvious. The black sector is generally bullish [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Market Data Overview - The market continued the "anti - involution" theme this week. Under the notice of controlled coal over - production, coking coal led the market. The coking coal 09 contract had 4 out of 5 K - lines hitting the daily limit this week. After a sudden news on July 22, it hit the daily limit, with partial short - covering and fluctuations on the 23rd. It added 50,000 lots on the 24th and 25th, maintaining its strength. Many related varieties such as glass, soda ash, PVC, and ferrosilicon also strengthened significantly. However, on Friday night after the Dalian Commodity Exchange limited the position of the coking coal 09 contract to 500 lots, coking coal, glass and other varieties corrected sharply, and the coking coal 09 contract reduced its position by 100,000 lots. Since July 22, the coking coal 09 contract only rose by 92 points (less than 10%) by Friday night's close. The position limit successfully released the potential risk of the coking coal 09 contract's reluctance to transfer positions, but it is unlikely to reverse the trend of the leading variety in the anti - involution market. Similar cases in the past show that position limits are to prevent extreme market risks and do not change the variety's trend, but large fluctuations require risk control [4]. 3.2 Variety Price Movement Structure - From last week's variety price movement structure, low - priced varieties have shown a comprehensive upward trend, and some varieties have signs of continuing the bullish market. This is a systematic market that will not end abruptly due to the position limit on coking coal. Funds may look for new varieties to take advantage of the good market profit - making effect [5]. 3.3 Capital Flow in Different Sectors - The total capital flow was 14.391 billion. Among them, precious metals had a capital flow of 522 million, non - ferrous metals 5.558 billion, black metals 85 million, energy 72 million, chemicals 517 million, feed and breeding - 239 million, oils and fats - 1.769 billion, and soft commodities 164 million [9]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Different Commodity Categories - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. were provided [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. were presented [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. were given [12].

Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 [3] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices falling and small - and medium - cap indices rising slightly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly. Some previously leading sectors adjusted significantly. From futures indicators, the basis of each contract declined, and trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating a cooling market sentiment. The index may undergo a phased adjustment, but the positive trend logic remains unchanged. If there are unexpected policies released after the Politburo meeting next week, it will drive the index up [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 57.369 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM rose on shrinking volume, while other varieties fell on shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law. The draft improves the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulates market price order, and addresses "involution - style" competition, as well as the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors such as price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.50 | - 0.60 | - 0.03 | 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2446 | 4.7227 | 7.6933 | 15.9413 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.1687 | - 0.6615 | - 1.8535 | - 4.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.0176 | 9.744 | 22.5556 | 32.7023 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.1192 | - 0.3451 | - 0.4233 | - 1.129 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.33 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.22 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.93 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 17873.37 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 573.69 | [8]

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar - making season, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil and a high sugar - to - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season sugar production in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger with a short - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5900 - 6000 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 25% ratio at 40 - 50 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5750 - 5800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5800) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's slow production progress and high sugar - to - ethanol ratio lead to an increasing expectation of reduced production, causing price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger due to the open profit window for out - of - quota imports [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Domestic Sales and Inventory**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. June's single - month sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [6]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crush of 206.198 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.747 billion tons (14.06%); cane ATR was 122.19 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.14 kg/ton year - on - year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points year - on - year; cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.639 billion liters (14.81%); and cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.036 million tons (14.25%) [6]. - **Import Reduction**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 10.35 million tons [8]. - **Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [8]. - **Market Demand**: Trump announced that Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again and launch new sugar - containing cola, and PepsiCo is also willing to enter the sugar - containing cola market if there is demand [9]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Production**: In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crush was 485.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.847 million tons; mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: Analysts at JOB expect Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9]. - **Thai Production Forecast**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [9]. - **Indian Production Forecast**: India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane - planting areas in major producing regions, and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price [9]. - **Import Volume**: In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the profit for out - of - quota imports is open [9]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Base Difference**: On July 25, 2025, the base differences between Nanning and various futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and between Kunming and various futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their spreads were presented. For example, SR01 closed at 5706, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a weekly increase of 0.88% [11]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao and their regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, Nanning's price was 6050, with no daily or weekly change [12]. - **Import Price**: On July 25, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices (Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou sugar) showed different daily and weekly changes [13].