Group 1: Report Summary - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.65% [1] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 25% of the bu2509 contract in the 3500 - 3600 range to lock in profits [1] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy 50% of the bu2509 contract in the 3300 - 3400 range to lock in procurement costs [1] - Weekly asphalt production increased by about 5.2%, while demand in South and East China decreased by 7.5% due to rainfall, leading to an increase in the inventory - to - consumption ratio this week [2] - The basis in the North China market strengthened, and the cracking spread on the futures market continued to strengthen, with the overall valuation remaining high [2] - In the short term, it is necessary to see if the slowdown in demand growth during the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2] - After the callback, it is still advisable to maintain a long - position - based configuration [2] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on June 3, 2025, was 3645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot price was 3645 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot price was 3365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 75 yuan/ton [5] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis on June 3, 2025, was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 144 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot 09 basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [5] Cracking Spread - The Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent on June 3, 2025, was 162.036 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 15.2169 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 7.6459 yuan/barrel [8] - The futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 129.4578 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 18.6826 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 21.3357 yuan/barrel [8] Group 3: Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - The inventory structure of asphalt is good [7] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [7] - The basis is strengthening [7] Bearish Factors - The cracking spread remains at a high level [4] - After the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered [7] - The plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].

工业硅产业日报 2025-06-03 束，预计将进一步下滑。铝合金领域，终端消费电子和汽车行业有一定需求支撑，但企业多按需补库，库 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 存增长，价格持平，处于被动去库存，难有拉动。整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求呈现下降趋势 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 。工业硅仓单数量有所下滑，但依旧保持在6.5万手，庞大的仓单数量给盘面带来了巨大的交割压力。目前 免责声明 工业硅期货已经出现恐慌性交易，交易量放出天量，操作上建议,中长线依旧高空思路 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 ...

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250602： 尝试多配 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 估值观察 动力煤：节前主产区供应收紧，煤价稳中小幅调整。部分终端阶段性补库，叠加站台大户采购积极，部分煤矿库存低，价格小幅探涨；但少数煤矿持 续上涨后，部分市场户接受度下降。六月份降雨增多，水电等清洁能源替代能力增强，且沿海电厂库存较为充裕，非电行业表现延续不温不火，采购需求 大规摸释放的可能性仍旧较低，短期内煤价或难有较大波动。 天然气：海外天然气价震荡。 2 甲醇产业链周度综述 | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 | 2276 | 2308 | -32 | 2345 | -69 | 1-5价差 | 57 | 54 | B | -19 | 76 | | 05合约 | 2219 | 2254 | ...

Group 1 - Shanghai International Reinsurance Center is accelerating its construction to enrich international financial products, allowing foreign traders to directly participate in trading six internationalized futures products including crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [1] - Eramet, a French mining company, is committed to maintaining 10,460 local jobs in Gabon despite the government's announcement to ban the export of manganese ore starting in 2029 [1] - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 83.87%, a capacity utilization rate of 90.69%, and a profit rate of 58.87%, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.4191 million tons [1] - As of May 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season reached 99.8%, slightly up from 99.5% the previous week and higher than 98.8% in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 1, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is at 67%, below the market expectation of 68%, with a planting rate of 84% [2] - U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the week ending May 29 was 268,343 tons, an increase from the previous week's revised figure of 200,022 tons, with shipments to China totaling 64,998 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons to 2 million tons as of the end of March, a 38% decline year-on-year, while total palm oil production increased by 7% to 4.8 million tons [2]

Core Insights - The main contract of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index futures closed at 2506, with a slight decrease of 0.33% as of May 30, 2025, and a total trading volume of 49,400 contracts, which is a decrease of 2,353 contracts from the previous day [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position - The top 20 positions show a net short position with a difference of 4,688 contracts [1]. - The total long positions in the top 20 decreased to 51,900 contracts, down by 5,406 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The total short positions in the top 20 also decreased to 62,500 contracts, down by 6,570 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with 8,643 contracts, CITIC Futures with 7,684 contracts, and Dongzheng Futures with 4,306 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions are held by Guotai Junan with 10,526 contracts, CITIC Futures with 9,638 contracts, and GF Futures with 8,335 contracts [1][3]. Group 3: Position Changes - The top three long position increases are from Guoxin Futures with an increase of 147 contracts, Zheshang Futures with an increase of 132 contracts, and Galaxy Futures with an increase of 121 contracts [1]. - The top three long position decreases are from Guotai Junan with a decrease of 1,781 contracts, CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,679 contracts, and Huatai Futures with a decrease of 421 contracts [1]. - The top three short position increases are from GF Futures with an increase of 314 contracts, Huawen Futures with an increase of 200 contracts, and Guotou Futures with an increase of 196 contracts [1].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月30日收盘主力合约低硫燃料油2508,涨跌-3.24%,成交量10.44万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现 净空，差额头寸为3093手。 低硫燃料油期货全合约总计成交19.63万手，比上一日新增3.36万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓5.64万手，比上一日减少1.17万手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓5.59万手，比上一日减少8666手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓6905、中信期货，总持仓6362、东证期货，总持仓5571；空头前三席位为 国泰君安，总持仓7375、东证期货，总持仓6514、永安期货，总持仓4084； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓1753、增仓920，南华期货、持仓965、增仓824，华泰期货、持仓 2146、增仓299；多头减仓前三名分别是：乾坤期货、持仓1716、减仓-3048，国泰君安、持仓5649、减仓-1187，中信期货、持仓 4927、减仓-923； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：摩根大通、持仓2926、增仓847，东证期货、持仓3584、增仓657，国泰君安、持 仓5805、增仓635 ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/05/30 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 袁铭：Z0012648 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 700-800 | 23.89% | 41.04% | | 焦炭 | 1280-1380 | 20.14% | 27.92% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锁定售价 | 钢厂对焦炭提降，担心焦炭价格下跌 | 多 | 做空焦炭2509合约 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1350-1400 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1400-1450 | | 锁定售价 | 焦煤现货库存高企，担心价格进 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Hongxu, Yu Weihan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the open interest has reached a record high. Be vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by short - covering. The overall industry is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to further inventory accumulation, and the demand side is weak [2][3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are also weak. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious about the spread of the delivery logic of the PS2506 contract to the PS2507 contract. The market is in a state where fundamentals and delivery logic alternate, with wide - range fluctuations on the futures market [3]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between SI and PS [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract has a strong resistance level at 7900 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.7% and a historical percentile of 83.5% over 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34000 - 38000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.78% and a historical percentile of 65% over 3 years [2] Group 5: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, short industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy rating of 3 [2]. - If product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy rating of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy rating of 3 [2]. Procurement Management - If the company has a production plan and there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy forward contracts of industrial silicon/polysilicon to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2]. - Sell put options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2] Group 6: Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply: The industry is in the stage of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to increased production in Southwest China and further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: The demand side is weak, with downstream enterprises bargaining for lower prices. There are still expectations of production cuts in polysilicon and organic silicon, the main downstream consumers [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: The production remains stable, and high - inventory pressure persists. Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has weakened significantly after the end of the PV installation rush, and the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. - Futures Market: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between open interest and warehouse receipts will become more prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3] Group 7:利多 and利空 Factors Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand, and the cost side has strong support as the short - term collapse space is limited [4]. - Bearish factors: The production capacity in Southwest China is expected to be released as the flood season approaches, and there are actual production cuts in downstream polysilicon enterprises, with inventory continuing to accumulate and weak demand [6][7] Polysilicon - Bullish factors: Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation, and the low willingness of enterprises for delivery may lead to a delivery - based market logic [4]. - Bearish factors: The failure of enterprise integration and continued inventory accumulation with weak demand [15] Group 8: Market Data Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7215 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 125 yuan, a weekly decline of 665 yuan (- 8.44%), and an annual decline of 41.53%. The trading volume is 539683 lots, and the open interest is 224146 lots [7]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 180 yuan, a weekly decline of 800 yuan (- 2.22%). The trading volume is 145339 lots, and the open interest is 78271 lots [7] Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of various grades in different regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553, 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421, etc. The basis and price spreads are also given [14][16] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Industrial silicon: The total number of warehouse receipts is 63868 lots, with a decrease of 418 lots (- 3.22%). The inventory in different delivery warehouses is reported, such as 8.8 million tons in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [24]

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]