Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 17, 2025, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units led to a rise in the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film entering the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas and OPEC+'s planned production increase in November. Considering the supply increase, insufficient demand, and other factors, it is expected that plastics will experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units on October 17 increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped, and factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the lack of actual anti - involution policies in the plastic industry suggest that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6855 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6936 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6874 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position decreased by 1233 lots to 565412 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8940 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7290 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 17, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but compared with previous years, the orders and raw material inventory of the agricultural film were still low, and the orders for packaging film decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 770,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year is similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil December contract dropped to $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $785 per ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The PE supply - demand pattern remains loose. Supply is increasing as multiple devices restarted in late September, and import volume is expected to rise in October - November. Demand recovery is slow, with low downstream order follow - up and weak restocking willingness. High inventory levels add to the pressure on prices. Considering various uncertainties, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for polyethylene is predicted to be between 6800 - 7200 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.15%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 4.7% [3]. - **Inventory Management Hedging**: For high product inventory, to prevent price drops, it's recommended to short L2601 plastic futures at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan and sell L2601C7200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 50 [3]. - **Procurement Management Hedging**: For low procurement inventory, to avoid price hikes, it's suggested to buy L2601 plastic futures at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan and sell L2601P6700 put options at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 70 - 90 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PE supply is increasing due to device restarts and expected import growth, while demand recovery is slow. High inventory levels are putting downward pressure on prices. Due to uncertainties such as trade policies and conferences, unilateral trading should be on hold [4]. 3.3 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, and a 50 - million - ton full - density device of Yulong stopped for about 5 days due to a fault [5]. - **Negative Factors**: New LDPE devices are expected to be put into production, device restarts have increased the operating rate, LLDPE inventory is high, and PE imports are expected to increase in October - November [7][9]. 3.4 Market Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: There were various changes in plastic futures prices, spreads, and basis compared to previous days and weeks [10]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in different regions and regional spreads also showed changes [10]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between non - standard and standard PE products had different changes [10]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of upstream raw materials like crude oil, ethane, coal, and methanol changed, and processing profits of different PE production methods also fluctuated [10].

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 1.47% on October 17, with Qide New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - N Daosheng (601026) with a closing price of 29.68, up 396.32% [1] - Henghe Precision (300539) at 54.97, up 11.05% [1] - Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) at 4.26, up 10.08% [1] - Major decliners included: - Qide New Materials (300995) at 44.11, down 6.19% [2] - Xingye Co. (603928) at 15.30, down 5.26% [2] - Dongcai Technology (601208) at 17.53, down 4.78% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 257 million yuan from institutional investors and 274 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 532 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - N Daosheng (601026) with a net inflow of 701 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) with a net inflow of 105 million yuan [3] - Henghe Precision (300539) with a net inflow of 62 million yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market for plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) has been experiencing price declines recently, influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, economic data, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended based on daily analysis, including holding long or short positions, and setting appropriate stop - loss points [1][2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract has shown price fluctuations, with a general downward trend in recent days. LLDPE market prices in different regions have also declined to varying degrees. Market trading sentiment is weak, with trade - offs by traders and low procurement enthusiasm from downstream [1][5][8] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract has also been falling. PP market prices have decreased, and the futures market has dragged down the confidence of the spot market. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing, with some regions and product types having relatively better transactions [1][5][8] Important Information - **Domestic Policy**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to promote the high - end, green, and intelligent transformation of the industry [24] - **International News**: The US government shutdown has affected economic data and decision - making, and the global plastic additive market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029 [1][18] - **Real Estate News**: In September, with the superposition of the "Golden September" effect and stable real - estate policies, the transaction activity of core cities has rebounded [8][11] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related**: Domestic PE and PP production capacity utilization rates have shown different trends, with some periods of increase and decrease. Import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene have also changed, affecting the L - PP spread [2][21][25] - **Demand - related**: Downstream demand is in the peak season, but the start - up of some industries and order volumes are at a low level compared to the same period. The impact of factors such as the real - estate market and the logistics industry on polyolefin demand is also considered [6][21][31] - **External Factors**: Changes in international oil prices, global stock market values, and economic data from other countries have an impact on the polyolefin market [21][25][28] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Depending on different market conditions, strategies such as holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and waiting and seeing are recommended for the L and PP main 01 contracts [2][6][9] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies for holding or seizing opportunities to intervene in the L2601 - PP2601 spread are provided, along with corresponding stop - loss settings [2][6][9] - **Options**: The general strategy for options is to wait and see [2][6][9]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.44% on October 16, with Runyang Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Xiangyuan New Materials (300980) saw a significant increase of 12.80%, closing at 30.57 with a trading volume of 220,700 shares and a transaction value of 652 million [1] - Nalco (002825) rose by 9.99%, closing at 11.89 with a trading volume of 58,900 shares and a transaction value of 70.03 million [1] - Pan-Asia Micro透 (688386) increased by 3.51%, closing at 77.56 with a trading volume of 28,500 shares and a transaction value of 223 million [1] Top Decliners in Plastic Sector - Runyang Technology (300920) fell by 8.07%, closing at 40.90 with a trading volume of 32,200 shares and a transaction value of 135 million [2] - Shangwei New Materials (688585) decreased by 6.96%, closing at 82.35 with a trading volume of 80,600 shares and a transaction value of 677 million [2] - Shengquan Group (605589) dropped by 5.34%, closing at 28.73 with a trading volume of 258,400 shares and a transaction value of 754 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 715 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 551 million [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Stik (300806) with a net inflow of 527.46 million [3] - Nalco (002825) experienced a net outflow of 1.96 million from retail investors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Core Insights - In June 2025, the primary form plastic production in Liaoning Province was 525,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.3% and a decrease in growth rate of 18.8 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total primary form plastic production reached 3,397,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, but with a slowdown of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 1: June 2025 Production Data - The primary form plastic production in June 2025 was 525,000 tons [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for June 2025 was -9.3%, which is 18.8 percentage points lower than the same month last year [1] - Liaoning's production accounted for 4.4% of the national total primary form plastic production of 12,032,089.9 tons during the same period [1] Group 2: January to June 2025 Production Data - The total primary form plastic production from January to June 2025 was 3,397,000 tons [3] - The year-on-year growth rate for this period was 4.1%, with a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - Liaoning's production represented 4.8% of the national total primary form plastic production of 70,123,475.3 tons during the same period [3]

Market Overview - The plastic sector increased by 2.13% on October 15, with Wankai New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13118.75, up 1.73% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 21.05, up 8.39% with a trading volume of 270,700 shares and a transaction value of 552 million [1] - Wanlang Weiwang (603150) closed at 41.70, up 8.17% with a trading volume of 54,000 shares [1] - Jiangsu Boyun (301003) closed at 37.42, up 6.91% with a trading volume of 36,600 shares [1] - Tianyang New Materials (603330) closed at 8.08, up 6.88% with a trading volume of 31,260 shares [1] - Dongcai Technology (601208) closed at 18.90, up 6.06% with a trading volume of 464,600 shares and a transaction value of 859 million [1] Market Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 88.1963 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 139 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 227 million [2][3] - Key stocks like Jinfac Technology (600143) had a net inflow of 11.7 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 73.021 million from speculative funds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. For linear LL, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 50, while PetroChina's prices remained stable. For拉丝 PP, some prices of Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some of PetroChina's were lowered by 50. In the medium - term, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. After the Sino - US game over the weekend, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short - term, polyolefin prices fluctuate passively with the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6918, 6949, and 6997 respectively, down 65, 80, and 74 from the day before, with declines of - 0.93%, - 1.14%, and - 1.05%. Trading volumes were 266284, 25247, and 310, and open interests were 577097, 59045, and 546, with changes of 12312, - 70, and 120 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 31, - 48, and 79, compared to - 46, - 42, and 88 previously [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6602, 6651, and 6680 respectively, down 91, 97, and 66 from the day before, with declines of - 1.36%, - 1.44%, and - 0.98%. Trading volumes were 365570, 42343, and 686, and open interests were 665454, 110491, and 3529, with changes of 22160, 1235, and 346 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 49, - 29, and 78, compared to - 55, 2, and 53 previously [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2344 yuan/ton, 6210 yuan/ton, 527 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6560 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton previously [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to 7050 - 7550, 7000 - 7250, and 7200 - 7650 previously. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to 6550 - 6700, 6550 - 6650, and 6550 - 6650 previously [2]. News - On Tuesday (October 14), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.70 per barrel, down $0.79 or 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.68 - $59.82. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.39 per barrel, down $0.93 or 1.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.50 - $63.63 [2].