达飞海运（CMA CGM）首席财务官：第一季度运输量比去年同期增长4.2%。自关税暂停以来对中美货 运需求的回升应会推动六月份的业务增长。 ...

达飞海运（CMA CGM）首席财务官：集团将在安全条件允许的情况下，继续通过红海航行。 ...

"现在消息利好，船公司调船回来需要时间，所以短期内（运 价）涨价是必然的。"深圳市跨境电子商务协会执行副会长谢 卓亨说。 作者：张锐 封图：图虫创意 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发 运，业内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。 深圳市跨境电子商务协会执行副会长谢卓亨表示，过去这两天，他们通过与船公司会面了解到，因 为4月以来中国出口美国的货量大约下降40%至50%，所以船公司陆续选择停航，这导致当前海运 已出现舱位紧缺的现象。 大形机器人的9个分岔口 内地赴港开户热中的代办生意 "现在消息利好，船公司调船回来需要时间，所以短期内（运价）涨价是必然的。"他说。 此外，谢卓亨也提及，有行业调研数据显示，中国出口货量中大约有70%是以FOB条款贸易合同 （由买方支付关税）完成交付，这也是此次关税战受伤最大的群体，尤其以沃尔玛等美国大型进口 商为代表。他同时称，虽然外贸行业目前仍然对90天过渡期以后的形势感到不确定性很强，但经 历过超高关税的极限施压后，从业者们的心态也有了变化。 "就算再有一股小浪花，估计大家应该还是能接受。"他说。 推荐阅读 洞察变化的商业世界 ...

经济观察报记者亦从国际货运业界人士处了解到，目前，业内预计中国始发货量或将出现短线激增，并 在6月底迎来高峰。该人士同时认为，90天缓冲期对海运而言"时间紧迫"，因为运输周期可能占据政策 窗口期的一半。 深圳关关通物流科技有限公司总经理席清堂则表示，当下这个时间内，中国出口美国货物的成本与5月 12日中美双方达成《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》之前差别不大，因为关税下降的部分会因为运价上 涨又"填"回去了，"总成本可以类比2021年（新冠疫情）的时候"。 此外，谢卓亨也提及，有行业调研数据显示，中国出口货量中大约有70%是以FOB条款贸易合同（由买 方支付关税）完成交付，这也是此次关税战受伤最大的群体，尤其以沃尔玛等美国大型进口商为代表。 他同时称，虽然外贸行业目前仍然对90天过渡期以后的形势感到不确定性很强，但经历过超高关税的极 限施压后，从业者们的心态也有了变化。 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发运，业 内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。 深圳市跨境电子商务协会执行副会长谢卓亨表示，过去这两天，他们通过与船公司会面了解到，因为4 月以来中国出口美国的货量 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of tariffs on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the China-US shipping routes following the implementation of high tariffs in April 2025 [1][2][3][26]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Shipping Volume and Rates** - Following the announcement of high tariffs in April 2025, shipping volumes on the China-US route dropped significantly, with an average decline of approximately 30%-50%. However, shipping rates remained stable, fluctuating between $2,400 and $3,500 due to shipping companies maintaining long-term contract prices as a baseline [1][4][26]. 2. **Preemptive Stockpiling by Companies** - Companies had stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariff increases, leading to a 15%-20% decline in shipping volumes by early February 2025. Low-value products like building materials and furniture were most affected, while automotive parts and e-commerce products showed resilience due to exemptions and pricing power [1][5][6][7]. 3. **Shift in Production to Southeast Asia** - The trade war has prompted companies to shift production to Southeast Asia, but local policies and capacity constraints hinder a complete transition. In April 2025, China's exports to the US decreased by 20%, while Southeast Asia only saw a 5%-7% increase [1][8][11]. 4. **Differences in Trade Terms** - Under traditional trade terms (CFR), shippers are more affected by tariffs, while under FOB terms, consignees bear less impact. E-commerce models exhibit greater resilience due to exporters having pricing power and the ability to declare lower values for customs [1][10][26]. 5. **Upcoming Price Increases** - Shipping companies plan to implement price increases in mid to late May 2025, with expectations that rates could rise significantly due to increased demand and seasonal surcharges. Predictions suggest rates could reach $6,000 by June 1 and potentially $8,000 by June 15 [3][14][17][20][27]. 6. **Long-term Contract Negotiations** - Long-term contract negotiations for 2025 have been completed, with prices increasing by $200-$500 compared to the previous year, reflecting rising operational costs due to fuel price hikes and regulatory requirements [19][20]. 7. **Market Demand and Inventory Levels** - As of early May 2025, there has been a notable increase in booking volumes driven by freight forwarders anticipating a drop in US inventory levels. Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon are expected to increase their order forecasts by late May or early June [13][21]. 8. **Challenges in Southeast Asia** - Southeast Asian countries face limitations in fully absorbing production shifts from China due to policy restrictions and capacity issues. The production speed and quality in these regions also lag behind China, complicating the transition [8][12][11]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The records highlight the significant role of freight forwarders in driving booking volumes and the strategic adjustments shipping companies are making in response to market conditions and tariff changes [13][14][20]. - The anticipated volatility in shipping rates and volumes due to the evolving trade landscape and potential changes in US-China relations is a critical factor for stakeholders in the shipping industry [2][21][27].

以下为晚报正文： 1、李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 重要程度：★★★★★ 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会。李强指出，内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的独 有优势。要围绕加快构建新发展格局，把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，不断提升经济循环的质量 和层次。 做强国内大循环重点要体现在四个方面：一是资源要素的高效配置；二是科技创新和产业创新的深度融 合；三是产业链供应链的自主完备；四是供给和需求的动态平衡。 2、中办、国办：推进城镇老旧小区整治改造 重要程度：★★★★ 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》。《意见》明确提到，到2030 年，城市更新行动实施取得重要进展，城市更新体制机制不断完善，城市开发建设方式转型初见成效，安 全发展基础更加牢固，服务效能不断提高，人居环境明显改善，经济业态更加丰富，文化遗产有效保护， 风貌特色更加彰显，城市成为人民群众高品质生活的空间。 重点任务方面，《意见》首先提到，强既有建筑改造利用。稳妥推进危险住房改造，加快拆除改造D级危 险住房，通过加固、改建、重建等多种方式，积极稳妥实施国有土地上C级危险住房和国 ...

Group 1 - The demand for container shipping from China to the US has significantly decreased, with major ports reporting a 30% drop in container imports compared to the same period last year [1][4] - The US has reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, which is expected to lead to a recovery in cargo transportation, although the supply of vessels may take time to normalize [7] - The immediate contract freight rates for container shipping remain strong despite the drop in demand, with rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast rising to $2,272 per 40-foot container, a 6% increase from the previous week [6] Group 2 - The logistics network is at risk of becoming chaotic due to a rapid recovery in demand following the tariff reduction, which could lead to a shortage of container space if cargo volumes surge [7] - A.P. Moller-Maersk reported a 30-40% decrease in container shipping volume between China and the US in April compared to the previous year [1][4] - The shipping industry is adjusting to the reduced demand by canceling bookings and reducing scheduled services, which has positively impacted the supply of shipping space [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of increased tariffs on container shipping demand between China and the United States, leading to a sharp decline in import volumes and potential disruptions in logistics networks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. container import volume has decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year due to the impact of increased tariffs on Chinese goods [1][3]. - Following the implementation of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, shipping bookings for Chinese products have been canceled, with a reported 30-40% decrease in container transport volume between China and the U.S. in April [3][4]. - A forecast predicts that container arrivals from China to the U.S. will drop by 60% during the week of June 9-15 compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - The shipping industry is transitioning from a phase of ensuring inventory through last-minute shipments to one of releasing backlogged inventory [4]. - Despite a sharp decline in shipping demand, spot freight rates for container shipping remain strong, with rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast rising to $2,272 per 40-foot container, a 6% increase from the previous week [4]. - Shipping companies are adjusting supply by canceling scheduled routes and using smaller vessels, which has positively impacted freight rates [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the recent reduction of tariffs from 145% to 30%, there are expectations for a recovery in cargo transport; however, the time required to restore shipping capacity may lead to space shortages if cargo volumes surge [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Geneva statement marks the beginning of a new phase in the US-China relationship, shifting the focus from tariff disputes to technology breakthroughs, rule restructuring, and industrial chain competition [2][11]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Geneva statement, the US lifted 91% of new tariffs on China and reduced the small package tax rate from 120% to 54%, leading to a surge in market activity [3][4]. - Export activities intensified, with logistics companies reporting a 35% increase in shipping orders from China to the US on the first day of the trade agreement [6]. - The stock market reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3400 points and the shipping index hitting a ceiling [6][7]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Companies are urged to reconsider their reliance on a single market and accelerate their overseas expansion strategies to mitigate risks [8][10]. - There is a growing trend among Chinese businesses to adopt a more rational approach to overseas investments, such as preferring leasing land instead of purchasing it outright [10]. - Experts suggest that businesses should utilize the 90-day window to enhance their overseas presence and diversify supply chains to reduce costs and comply with origin rules [17]. Group 3: Compliance and Risk Management - Companies need to strengthen their legal awareness and compliance capabilities, particularly regarding intellectual property and local regulations in target markets [18][21]. - It is essential for businesses to clarify contract terms related to tax and tariff responsibilities to avoid disputes arising from tariff changes [20][21]. - The importance of establishing a sustainable operational framework is emphasized, moving away from gray area practices to genuine localization in foreign markets [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing US-China trade tensions are expected to persist, necessitating a balanced approach to international market strategies [24][28]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deemed irreversible, with a focus on building a globalized and localized supply chain system [25][26]. - The future investment landscape will likely center around technological innovation and domestic consumption, with a potential for gradual RMB appreciation [31][34].

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent market rally, characterized by a surge in financial stocks, is misleading as 2800 stocks are declining despite the Shanghai Composite Index breaking 3400 points [1][3] - The financial sector's performance is driven by speculative trading, with institutions adjusting their positions while retail investors are left holding the bag [3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Shipping and chemical sectors are highlighted as the real opportunities, with Ningbo Shipping experiencing significant price increases due to rising freight costs [3] - Bromine prices have doubled in six months, driven by demand from the electric vehicle and semiconductor industries, indicating strong growth potential in the chemical sector [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Financial stocks' rebound is seen as an opportunity to reduce exposure, while pullbacks in shipping and chemical stocks should be viewed as buying opportunities [4] - Maintaining a cash reserve of 20% is advised to capitalize on potential market dips following the Federal Reserve meetings [4]