[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jul 2025 决定性催化剂：解析"大而美法案"对欧美 A&D 板块的冲击与机遇 A Decisive Catalyst: Analyzing the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" and its Shockwaves Across US and European A&D 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 7 月 4 日，特朗普总统正式签署了标志性的"大而美法案"（One Big, Beautiful Bill）。此举通过 预算和解（budget reconciliation）这一特殊的立法程序，绕开了国会漫长的常规辩论与潜在阻碍，以简 单多数票的方式为美国国防部批准了高达 1500 亿美元的额外专项资金。该法案的通过，标志着白宫和国 会旨在解决美国国防工业基础（DIB）长期投资不足和军事现代化进程迟缓问题 ...

加仓幅度超过10%的行业有7个，其中商贸零售行业表现最为突出。该行业获北向资金持股数量增幅达28.69%，持股市值增幅超45%，达197.5亿元。二季度 商贸零售指数涨幅超6%，位居申万31个行业前列。国防军工行业同样获得重点关注，北向资金持股数环比增加12.5%。该行业指数二季度以超15%的涨幅领 跑市场，随着一季度订单放量，中上游企业业绩改善预期增强，并逐步向中下游传导。 陆股通2025年二季度持股情况显示，北向资金整体持仓市值和持股数量均实现显著提升。截至二季度末，北向资金持股市值达2.29万亿元，较一季度末增长 超2%。持股数量达到1235.1亿股，环比增长超3%。剔除已退市公司后，北向资金对存续A股公司的持股数量与市值均创下近3个季度新高。 行业配置呈现结构性调整 从行业布局角度观察，北向资金在二季度展现出明显的结构性调整特征。以持股数量统计，二季度末获北向资金环比加仓的行业多达20个，占申万31个行业 比重超过六成。社会服务行业已连续3个季度获北向资金加仓，显示出外资对该领域的持续看好。 从个股层面分析，北向资金的持仓变动体现出明确的价值取向。按照持股数量占流通A股比例计算，超1500只个股获北向 ...

陆股通2025年二季度持股情况出炉。统计显示，北向资金整体持仓市值和持股数量均有提升，超半数行 业的持股数量环比增长。 在行业布局上，以持股数量统计，二季度末获北向资金环比加仓的行业多达20个，占申万31个行业比重 超过六成。其中，社会服务行业已连续3个季度获北向资金加仓。 加仓幅度超过10%的行业有7个，包括商贸零售、通信、国防军工等热门赛道。其中，商贸零售行业增 幅为28.69%，持股市值增幅超45%，达197.5亿元。今年二季度，该行业指数涨幅超6%，位居申万31个 行业前列。 国防军工行业同样表现突出，北向资金持股数环比增加12.5%。该行业指数二季度以超15%的涨幅领 跑。银河证券指出，随着一季度订单放量，国防军工行业中上游企业业绩改善预期增强，并逐步向中下 游传导，为板块注入强劲动能。 与此同时，石油石化、纺织服饰、电子、家用电器等4个行业持股数量环比下降超10%。 从成份股来看，按照持股数量占流通A股比例计算，超1500只个股获北向资金加仓。其中，新晋纳入陆 股通标的的个股中，恒鑫生活（301501）、毓恬冠佳（301173）等持股比例居前。存续标的中，168只 个股获北向资金加仓环比超1个百分 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment on Pharmaceutical Stocks - There is a significant divergence among fund managers regarding pharmaceutical stocks, particularly in valuation and performance realization, innovation drug development risks and returns, market sentiment and capital flow, policy impacts, and short-term volatility [2][10] - Some fund managers are opting for swing trading in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific examples like Dongfang Biological, which saw a 5.56% increase in Q2 [4][10] - Notable fund managers have either increased or decreased their holdings in specific pharmaceutical companies, such as Wan Minyuan increasing his stake in Dongfang Biological while others like Wu Yuanyi reduced their holdings [5][6][8] Group 2: Military Industry Focus - There has been an increased interest from public funds in the military sector, with notable fund managers like Li Xiaoxing and Chen Yunzhong increasing their positions in companies like Jingpin Special Equipment [11][12] - The military sector has seen a surge in trading activity, with a record weekly trading volume of 4,298.88 billion yuan, indicating heightened market interest [15][16] - The military industry is expected to remain a focal point for market participants, presenting structural opportunities despite potential short-term volatility risks [16] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Fund managers are focusing on sectors such as dividends, technology growth, and innovative pharmaceuticals for the upcoming quarter, with expectations of a resilient market and structural opportunities [18][19] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed as having the greatest potential, with opportunities arising from potential corrections in leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [19][20] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a core direction for high dividends, with many A-share banks offering dividend yields above 4.5% [20]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the net inflow of main funds into various industries, with a total of 65.68 billion yuan flowing into the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on July 8, including 59.68 billion yuan into the ChiNext market and 57.92 billion yuan into the CSI 300 index [2] - Among the 13 industries with net inflows, the electronics industry led with a net inflow of 40.76 billion yuan, followed by the computer industry with 26.6 billion yuan, and the communication, power equipment, and non-bank financial industries each exceeding 16 billion yuan [2] - In contrast, 18 industries experienced net outflows, with the pharmaceutical and biological industry seeing the largest outflow of over 15 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, national defense, and basic chemicals, each with outflows exceeding 5 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - A total of 77 stocks had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with 9 stocks seeing inflows over 4 billion yuan. Zhongyou Capital topped the list with a net inflow of 9.01 billion yuan, closing at the daily limit [4] - Pengding Holdings ranked second with a net inflow of 6.41 billion yuan, while other notable stocks with significant inflows included Zhongji Xuchuang, N Yitang, Dongfang Caifu, and Inspur Information, with inflows of 5.85 billion yuan, 5.16 billion yuan, 5.16 billion yuan, and 4.86 billion yuan respectively [6] - On the other hand, 37 stocks had net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Changshan Pharmaceutical leading the outflow at 8.3 billion yuan, followed by Jinyi Culture, Rongfa Nuclear Power, and Shaoneng Shares [7][8] Group 3 - At the end of the trading day, there was a net inflow of 35.8 billion yuan, with the ChiNext market contributing 12.97 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index contributing 13.24 billion yuan [9] - Among the stocks with significant end-of-day inflows, Dongfang Caifu led with a net inflow of 2.21 billion yuan, followed by Hangang Co., Zhongzhou Special Materials, and Ningde Times [10][11] - Conversely, 7 stocks experienced end-of-day net outflows exceeding 0.6 billion yuan, with Changshan Pharmaceutical again leading with a net outflow of 1.65 billion yuan, closing down 12.8% [12]

沪指7月8日上涨0.70%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有29个，涨幅居前的行业为通信、电力设备，涨 幅分别为2.89%、2.30%。电子行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为公用事业、银行，跌幅分 别为0.37%、0.24%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入154.50亿元，今日有14个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.27%，全天净流入资金74.37亿元，其次是电力设备行业，日涨幅 为2.30%，净流入资金为36.78亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有17个，公用事业行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金22.97亿元， 其次是医药生物行业，净流出资金为22.85亿元，净流出资金较多的还有国防军工、银行、商贸零售等 行业。 电子行业今日上涨2.27%，全天主力资金净流入74.37亿元，该行业所属的个股共464只，今日上涨的有 418只，涨停的有13只；下跌的有40只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有250只， 其中，净流入资金超亿元的有25只，净流入资金居首的是工业富联，今日净流入资金11.63亿元，紧随 其后的是C屹唐、鹏鼎控股，净流入资金分别为 ...

沪指7月8日上涨0.70%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有29个，涨幅居前的行业为通信、电力设备，涨 幅分别为2.89%、2.30%。国防军工行业今日上涨0.64%。跌幅居前的行业为公用事业、银行，跌幅分别 为0.37%、0.24%。 国防军工行业资金流出榜 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入154.50亿元，今日有14个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.27%，全天净流入资金74.37亿元，其次是电力设备行业，日涨幅 为2.30%，净流入资金为36.78亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有17个，公用事业行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金22.97亿元， 其次是医药生物行业，净流出资金为22.85亿元，净流出资金较多的还有国防军工、银行、商贸零售等 行业。 国防军工行业今日上涨0.64%，全天主力资金净流出11.63亿元，该行业所属的个股共139只，今日上涨 的有100只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有38只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有50 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有19只，净流入资金居首的是菲利华，今日净流入资金1.40亿元，紧 随其后的是中国海防 ...

2025年5月16日，证监会资产重组新规落地 ，明确"允许未盈利硬科技资产注入上市公司"——这是继科 创板"科八条"、地方百亿并购基金后，政策层面对并购重组的又一次强力刺激。 回顾近年数据可以看出， 并购市场热度持续升温 ，企业关注度、参与度逐渐提高： " 1、并购重组市场形势 | 并购六条导向 | 行业 | 2024年平均并购金额(亿元) | 较近 10年均值增幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向新质生产力转型升级 | 国防车工 | 575.75 | 495.02 | | | 轻工制造 | 133.51 | 420.03 | | | 传 娱 | 147.46 | 179.31 | | | 计算机 | 34.23 | 42.67 | | | 医药生物 | 33.62 | 40.48 | | | 汽车 | 34.48 | 21.02 | | 加强产业整合 | 非银金融 | 374.54 | 234.08 | | | 纺织服饰 | 73.73 | 113.98 | | | 商贸零售 | 101.25 | 111.79 | | | 父通运输 | 147.46 | 61.12 | ...

太空经济布局方面，Voyager在"金穹"国家安全架构中的硬件软件供应能力被重点提及。传统业务层 面，公司已为地球观测、威胁探测等任务提供通信、制导及ISR系统;新兴领域则通过与 Palantir(PLTR.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)的合作，借助TALIX等项目搭建国家安全技术桥梁。星际实验室 空间站计划更被赋予战略价值，爱泼斯坦预测该合资项目到2032年可能创造超30亿美元收入，同时开辟 微重力研究、制造等新市场。 尽管看好前景，报告也提示多重风险：Voyager当前盈利能力落后于国防科技同业，调整后EBITDA至 2028年仍预计为负;约63%的投票权集中于创始人手中的股权结构，带来公司治理不确定性。爱泼斯坦 坦言，虽然终端市场曝光度与核心技术具备吸引力，但投资仍需承担较高风险。 智通财经APP获悉，美国银行证券周一正式启动对Voyager Technologies(VOYG.US)的股票覆盖，并给 予"买入"评级。分析师罗纳德·爱泼斯坦在7月7日发布的研究报告中强调，这家国防科技企业凭借深度 参与国家安全项目及太空经济机遇，展现出独特的投资价值。 美国银行设定Voyager目标价为50美元，较当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses allegations that China is using its embassies to undermine the reputation and sales of the French "Rafale" fighter jet, with claims of promoting Chinese military aircraft instead [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Responses - French intelligence reports suggest that Chinese military officials are actively working to discredit the "Rafale" jet, particularly targeting countries like Indonesia that have already placed orders [1][2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Defense has denied these allegations, labeling them as baseless and defamatory [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Military Sales - The "Rafale" jet is a significant part of France's defense industry, with sales to eight countries, including Indonesia, which has ordered 42 units and is considering additional purchases [1]. - Following recent military conflicts, there has been a surge in misinformation campaigns on social media, promoting the superiority of Chinese military technology [2]. Group 3: International Reactions - Military experts suggest that Western media and analysts have a tendency to downplay Chinese military capabilities while promoting their own arms sales [3]. - The article notes that the U.S. and other Western nations have shown urgency in promoting their own fighter jets, particularly the F-35, in light of the recent air combat involving the "Rafale" [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article highlights the competitive landscape at the Paris Air Show, where both the Chinese J-10CE and the "Rafale" were showcased, indicating the ongoing rivalry in the defense market [4]. - Indonesia's defense officials are exploring the possibility of acquiring Chinese J-10 fighter jets, contingent on performance and pricing [3].