Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] Business Performance Summary - The core OTA business showed robust growth, with Q3 revenue reaching 4.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [1] - Accommodation booking revenue for Q3 was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in international ticket sales, which accounted for 6% of total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points [1] - Other business revenue grew significantly to 0.821 billion yuan, a 34.9% year-on-year increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [1] - Vacation revenue for Q3 was 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, mainly due to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [1] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [1] - Profitability improvements were attributed to the positive effects of revenue scale and the application of AI to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [1] - As of September 30, the company had 253 million annual paying users, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [1] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue likely to be driven by hotel management [1] - Accommodation revenue is projected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is expected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may continue to face challenges [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.368 billion yuan, 4.044 billion yuan, and 4.667 billion yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to adjusted PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times for the same years [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its performance and growth prospects [1]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：贾梦迪 同程旅行3Q25 的收入同比增长10%至55 亿元，经调整净利润同比增长17%至10.6 亿元，超出我们的预 期，主要由于住宿业务好于预期。我们将25 年每股盈利预测由1.41 元上调至1.44 元，维持26 年预测 1.57 元，27 年预测1.74 元。目标价由26.5 港币上调至27 港币，对应25%的上涨空间，维持买入评级。 国内业务增长稳健。三季度的核心OTA业务收入同比增长15%。住宿预订收入同比增长15%，受益于酒 店平均价格的增长以及日均间夜量创历史新高。交通票务收入同比增长9%，其他业务收入同比增长 35%，主要受益于酒店管理业务的增长。年付费用户同比增长9%至2.529亿人，创历史新高。 出境机票业务已实现盈利。3Q25 出境机票贡献交通收入的约6%，并实现盈利。公司预计出境游业务将 快速发展，国际机票和酒店在整体机票和酒店的收入贡献在2027 年将提升至10-15%。 维持买入评级。我们看好在线旅游行业的增长确定性和行业竞争格局的稳定，同程旅行是内需消费中确 定性较高的标的，出境游规模的提升有望推动利润率的提升，酒店管理业务也有望提供额外的增长驱动 力 ...

机构：国海证券 研究员：陈梦竹/张娟娟 度假业务：持续受东南亚地区安全问题影响，收入短期承压：2025Q3度假业务实现营收9 亿元，同比下 降8%。 用户表现：付费用户规模稳步提升，持续深耕下沉市场。2025Q3公司实现平均月付费用户数4770 万人 （yoy+2.8%），截至2025年9 月30 日止12 个月实现年付费用户数2.53 亿（yoy+8.8%），12 个月累计服 务人次增长7.3%至20.2 亿。截至2025 年9 月30 日，居住在中国非一线城市注册用户数超过87%， 2025Q3 微信平台新付费用户中超70%来自中国非一线城市，进一步巩固平台在中国大众市场的地位。 盈利预测和投资评级：公司作为下沉市场OTA 平台龙头，持续受益于国内长短途旅游的需求释放、下 沉市场渗透率提升、国际业务拓展以及线上线下流量深耕下的用户增长，我们调整公司2025-2027年营 收分别为193/219/245 亿元，归母净利润分别为29/32/37 亿元，对应摊薄EPS 为1.3/1.4/1.6 元，对应P/E 为15.7/14.2/12.3 倍；我们给予2026 年同程旅行目标市值602 亿元人民币，对应目标价 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The core online travel agency (OTA) maintains a steady growth momentum, with a notable performance in international business [4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year [3][4] - The company's hotel management business is expanding, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and an additional 1,500 hotels in preparation [4] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by insights into user demand and a rich array of value-added products [4] - The accommodation booking segment saw revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [4] - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure due to safety issues in Southeast Asia, with Q3 2025 revenue declining by 8% to 900 million yuan [4] Group 3: User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million in Q3 2025, a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [5] - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities, with more than 70% of new paying users in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [5] Group 4: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand and international business expansion [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] Group 5: Alibaba Overview - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026 Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5% [14] - The traditional e-commerce segment showed steady growth, with revenue increasing by 16% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [15] - The cloud business experienced a 34% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching 39.8 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [17] Group 6: Financial Outlook for Alibaba - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion, 1,160.5 billion, and 1,282.1 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 125.1 billion, 149.3 billion, and 184.5 billion yuan [18] - The target market capitalization for Alibaba in FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The core OTA business achieved revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [5]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [5]. - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in international ticket sales [5]. - Other business revenue surged to 0.821 billion yuan, marking a 34.9% increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [5]. - Vacation revenue decreased to 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [6]. - Profitability improvements were driven by revenue scale effects and the application of AI technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [6]. - The number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [6]. - The international and hotel management businesses are expected to contribute more profits in 2026, with the international business projected to break even [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 2025 core OTA revenue will maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management continuing to grow [7]. - Accommodation revenue is expected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is projected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may face continued pressure [7].

【宏观】9月消费不及预期，不改12月混沌局面——2025年9月美国零售数据点评 9月美国消费环比增速低于预期，主因9月特朗普对华威胁加征100%关税，贸易摩擦升级打击了居民消费 意愿，同时9月底美国政府面临停摆风险，大量政府雇员的薪资将暂停发放，也进一步限制了居民消费的 能力。从降息节奏看，9月美国消费数据低于预期，但时效性不足，或不足以"打动"鹰派官员，12月降息 悬念犹存。 （赵格格/周欣平） 2025-11-26 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【建筑建材】商业航天发射需求增长，运载火箭景气度有望持续提升——低轨卫星行业研究系列之三 运载火箭为多级航天运载工具，核心服务于航天器入轨需求，性能由多系统协同决定。结构、控制、动力 ...

原本，今年有两件事被寄望可为酒旅行业带来新增量，分别是"京东酒旅"跨界入局和被称为"滴滴订 房"的C2B（消费者到企业）新模式出现。 随着2025年进入倒计时，各大酒店又到了"展望来年"的时候。11月中旬，一家酒店的总经理林杨去集团 开完会后，拿到了2026年的营收目标——比2025年多了400万元。在平均房价等酒店关键运营指标持续 下滑的当下，林杨表示，他还不知道去哪里寻找增量。 但时至今日，酒店从上述事件中获得的收益似乎并不明显。近期，《每日经济新闻》记者采访了多位酒 店业内人士，从结果来看，无论是京东酒旅还是C2B新模式，均还未带来多少新订单。 C2B即消费者出价、酒店接单模式，与现有的酒店提供房间、消费者选购模式颇为不同。一个名为"惠 选订房"的平台，是该模式的代表。2024年9月至今的这一年多时间里，该平台出现在众多城市的高铁站 广告屏上。但是，今年11月下旬，平台创始人马昭德在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD） 采访时坦言，该模式目前推广进展不理想。 据马昭德介绍，平台原计划2025年接入3万家酒店，但目前只接入了不到1万家，平台上每个月有近2万 订单，退订率却达到50%。 未来，市场推广 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 National Examination will take place from November 29 to November 30, with record-high registration numbers due to relaxed age limits for applicants [2] - Hotel bookings around examination venues have surged, particularly for high-quality accommodations, reflecting an increased demand for better lodging options among candidates [2][3] - The report indicates that hotel bookings within a 5-kilometer radius of exam sites increased over nine times compared to the previous week, with high-rated hotels seeing a more than fivefold increase in bookings [2] Group 2 - The top ten cities for "National Exam Rooms" bookings align with the most popular provinces for the exam, including Guangzhou, Beijing, and Jinan [3] - The demand for family rooms has significantly increased, particularly among older candidates preparing for the exam with family support [3] - As of November 26, the booking rate for family rooms near exam sites has tripled compared to the same period last week, with some hotels fully booked three days in advance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion RMB, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2% [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing was 2.2 billion RMB, up 9% year-over-year, driven by user demand insights and enriched value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.58 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, supported by an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [6]. - The vacation business faced a revenue decline of 8% year-over-year, totaling 900 million RMB, primarily due to security issues in Southeast Asia [6]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and international business expansion. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.5 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.7 billion RMB [6][8]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 28 HKD per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

财报数据显示，截至9月30日，同程旅行年付费用户达到2.53亿，同比增长8.8%。与此同时，月付费用户数增至4770万， 过去十二个月累计服务人次突破20亿。 又一家互联网企业交出了一份成绩单。11月25日，同程旅行发布的2025三季度财报显示，这家在线旅游平台一年服务的 付费用户突破2.5亿大关。 自2018年同程与艺龙合并后，同程便重点投入微信小程序。借助微信的庞大用户基础和"九宫格"入口，以较低成本触达 了大量非一线城市用户。除了微信生态，同程旅行还在兴趣电商、线下服务等多渠道布局，触达更广泛的大众人群。例 如，其会员服务中心覆盖哈尔滨、海口等城市，已上线的"易安检"服务接入了41家重点机场。 "暑期旅游市场的火爆超出了我们预期，"同程旅行在财报中表示，"家庭游、毕业旅行、研学游等多元需求集中爆发，为 我们带来了可观的增长。"这份财报背后，藏着同程旅行怎样的增长密码？ 年付费用户突破2.5亿，靠的是什么？ 亮眼的用户数据背后，是同程这几年在大众市场深耕的结果。据悉，同程旅行超过87%的注册用户来自非一线城市，微 信平台上超过70%的新付费用户也来自这些地区，构成了其庞大的用户基本盘。这意味着，当OTA同 ...