[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - November manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the seasonal average of 50.0%[14] - PMI for production rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%; new orders improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%[14] - Industrial raw material prices rebounded, with PMI purchase prices at 53.6% and factory prices at 48.2%, both up from previous values[22] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - November non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, marking the first time this year below the expansion threshold[32] - Construction PMI improved slightly to 49.6%, with new orders index rising by 0.2 percentage points[24] - Policy-driven financial tools are less effective than in 2022, impacting service sector performance negatively[24] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 91.0% by the end of November, a significant increase of 10.1 percentage points from October[24] - Small enterprises showed a notable recovery in PMI, increasing by 2.0 percentage points, benefiting from improved US-China trade relations[22] - PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to around -2.0% in November, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.2%[22]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The PMI for large enterprises is 49.3%, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month and remains below the critical point; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises are 48.9% and 49.1%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points respectively, but still below the critical point [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector index at 49.6% (up 0.5 percentage points) and the service sector index at 49.5% (down 0.7 percentage points) [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive PMI output index for November is 49.7%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]

Group 1 - In 2024, China's outward direct investment (ODI) reached $58.815 billion, with total stock exceeding $1.16 trillion, indicating deep participation of Chinese enterprises in global resource allocation [1] - The manufacturing sector remained the top investment area, accounting for 48.2% of the flow and 34.1% of the stock, highlighting the strategic determination of "Made in China" to move towards the mid-to-high end of the global industrial chain [1] - The financial sector emerged as a significant highlight with a flow share of 71.9%, reflecting the accelerated enhancement of Chinese capital's influence in the global financial system [1] Group 2 - Certain industries experienced notable capital repatriation or contraction, indicating proactive optimization of investment strategies; the information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a flow decrease of 27.0%, while wholesale and retail recorded a negative growth of 6.1% [1] - The mining sector also showed a reversal with an outflow decrease of 8.4%, suggesting a phase of adjustment in resource investments [1] - This dynamic balance of "gains and losses" reflects the increasing maturity of Chinese enterprises' globalization layout and their flexible response to international geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 3 - The accommodation and catering sector, along with residential services, expanded against the trend, with the former seeing a flow increase of 7.5% and the latter growing by 1.6%, indicating that Chinese brands are accelerating cultural output and local integration through proximity to daily consumption scenarios [2] - Although the scientific research and technical services sector experienced a slight flow decline, its stock steadily accumulated to $2.18 billion, demonstrating ongoing long-term investment in core technology areas [2] - Overall, China's outward investment is shifting from scale expansion to quality prioritization, with a more diversified, rational, and strategically coordinated structure [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2][3] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [3] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in economic activity [2][5] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with some industries like real estate showing weaker activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence in future growth [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The composite PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][2][3] - Production and new orders indices improved, with production index at 50.0% and new orders index at 49.2%, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in the sector's economic conditions [1][2][5] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with certain sectors like railway transport and financial services maintaining indices above 55.0% [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in the sector's economic activity [6] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production and non-manufacturing business activity indices at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively [1][6] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.1%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market developments [4]

Core Insights - Recent policies in multiple regions focus on financial support to expand consumption, particularly emphasizing the listing of consumer enterprises and guiding financial institutions to utilize consumption and elderly re-loan services effectively [1][2] Group 1: Support for Quality Consumer Enterprises - Supporting the listing of quality consumer enterprises is a key focus of financial policies in various regions, which aims to enhance corporate credibility, expand quality supply, and optimize consumption structure to meet diverse demands [1][2] - As of November 24, 2023, 18 consumer enterprises have been listed domestically this year, including 13 automotive companies, 2 light manufacturing companies, 1 machinery equipment company, 1 textile and apparel company, and 1 electronics company [2] Group 2: Increased Credit Support - In addition to leveraging capital markets, regions are increasing credit support for consumer enterprises, with initiatives encouraging financial institutions to enhance credit allocation in key consumption sectors such as accommodation, dining, cultural and entertainment, and tourism [2][3] - Experts believe that increasing credit support for consumer enterprises will promote healthy development in service consumption and elderly re-loan sectors, injecting momentum into the recovery of the consumption market [3] Group 3: Tailored Financial Strategies - The financing needs of consumer enterprises are diverse, necessitating precise financial support strategies tailored to different types of enterprises, such as enhancing trade-in financing services for goods consumption enterprises and increasing credit support for service consumption enterprises [3] - Recommendations include expanding the scale of service consumption re-loans, focusing on sectors like cultural tourism and elderly care, and adjusting subsidy structures to favor upgraded consumption such as smart terminals and green appliances [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Beijing Branch, along with 12 other departments, issued an implementation plan to support the expansion of consumption in Beijing, aiming to enhance financial services in the consumption sector by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The implementation plan emphasizes the need for quality enterprises in the consumption industry to finance through public offerings and "New Third Board" listings [1] - It aims to increase the loan balance for sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural tourism, education, and elderly services, while enhancing the quality and efficiency of personal consumption financial services [1] - The plan sets a goal to establish a diversified consumption financial service system to support Beijing's development as an international consumption center [1] Group 2: Credit Support and Financial Products - The plan calls for increased credit support for consumer goods, particularly in the automotive sector, by optimizing loan issuance ratios, terms, and interest rates [2] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate financial products tailored to various car purchasing scenarios, including first-time purchases and trade-ins, with a focus on electric vehicles [2] - There is a push for financial institutions to meet consumer demand in areas like home appliances, green smart home renovations, and electronics through various promotional activities [2] Group 3: Equity Financing and Investment - The plan supports equity financing for quality enterprises in the consumption industry through public listings and private equity investments [2] - It encourages social capital to invest in key service consumption areas, utilizing "long-term capital" and "patient capital" to meet the financing needs of long-cycle consumption industries [2] - The role of private equity and venture capital funds is highlighted to increase investments in seed and early-stage enterprises [2]

Core Insights - The economic performance of 15 sub-provincial cities in China varies significantly, with Chengdu and Wuhan showing strong growth in GDP and service sectors [3][6][12] Group 1: Economic Growth and Performance - Chengdu's GDP reached 1.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, ranking third among sub-provincial cities, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, the second highest [3][6] - Wuhan's GDP was 1.55 trillion yuan, ranking fifth, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, the fourth highest [3][6] - Shenyang lagged behind with a GDP growth rate of only 2.3%, less than half the national average [3] Group 2: Service Sector Contribution - The rapid growth of the service sector is a key driver for Chengdu and Wuhan, with Chengdu's service sector contributing 70% to its GDP and Wuhan's contributing 65% [6][8] - Both cities achieved service sector growth rates of 6%, surpassing the national average of 5.4% [6][8] - Shenzhen also performed well, with a service sector growth rate of 6.6%, contributing 65% to its GDP [8] Group 3: Industrial Growth in Other Cities - Dalian and Xiamen, part of the third tier of sub-provincial cities, showed significant industrial growth, with Dalian's industrial GDP growing by 8% and Xiamen's by 7% [14][16] - Dalian's GDP for the first nine months was 724.8 billion yuan, while Xiamen's was 641.9 billion yuan [14][16] Group 4: Overall Economic Contribution of Sub-Provincial Cities - The total GDP of the 15 sub-provincial cities reached 19.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.06% of the national GDP, marking the highest contribution since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [19][20] - The second tier of sub-provincial cities has seen an increase in GDP share from 29.9% in 2019 to 31.6% in 2025 [21][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recognition and importance of "small bosses" in Guangdong's economy, showcasing the resilience and diversity of the province's private sector [2][3][5] - The Guangdong Provincial Market Supervision Administration reported that the number of registered business entities in the province has surpassed 20 million, with a net increase of 953,100 entities compared to the end of 2024, maintaining the highest total in the country [3] - Individual businesses, referred to as "small bosses," play a crucial role in employment and livelihood, directly supporting over 30 million jobs, with a significant concentration in wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, manufacturing, and service industries [3][5] Group 2 - The history of individual businesses in Guangdong reflects their evolution from small operators to larger enterprises, indicating their foundational role in the province's economic development [4] - The Guangdong government has implemented various supportive measures for individual businesses, including entrepreneurial support, financial assistance, and rights protection, to promote high-quality development [5] - The recognition of "small bosses" by local authorities signifies the government's reliance on the private economy and acknowledges the contributions of small and medium-sized operators to society [5]