目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《春节效应延续》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《美国：制造业景气度超季节回升》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略周报：《坚定信心，持股过节》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《地方两会聚焦扩内需与强科技》2026-02-08 4 | | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度下降，万得全 估值微跌》2026-02-08 5 A | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：餐饮《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋缓》2026-02-09 6 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《淡季维持累库趋势，但库存处于历史低位》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20260208》2026-02-09 8 | | |  | 行业周报：金融《建议左侧增持非银板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The competition in the instant retail sector is intensifying, shifting from simple subsidy wars to a comprehensive competition for traffic entry and fulfillment capabilities [2][5] - Major e-commerce players are actively engaging in the instant retail space, with initiatives such as Taobao's "30 billion free order" campaign and Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing supply chain infrastructure [5][32] - The reliance on third-party logistics platforms is increasing, with SF Express being highlighted as the largest third-party instant delivery platform, showcasing superior service efficiency and coverage [5][37] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Competition - E-commerce giants are ramping up efforts in instant retail, with Taobao's initiatives driving significant increases in order volumes, particularly in beverage categories [5][27] - AI technology is being leveraged to optimize user decision-making and enhance fulfillment efficiency, with notable increases in order volumes driven by AI capabilities [27][28] Supply Chain Integration - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for $717 million aims to strengthen its supply chain capabilities in the fresh produce sector, addressing infrastructure gaps in its existing operations [5][32] - Dingdong Maicai has established a robust supply chain with over 1,000 front warehouses and a significant user base, positioning it as a key player in the market [32][33] Third-Party Delivery Platforms - The strategic value of third-party delivery platforms is becoming more pronounced, with SF Express leading the market in terms of service quality and operational scale [5][37] - SF Express is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expectations of a 33% year-on-year increase in revenue for the second half of 2025 [41][44] Transportation Trends - The report tracks spring transportation data, indicating stable growth in domestic passenger volumes despite slight fluctuations in ticket prices and capacity [48][49] - The logistics sector is experiencing a surge in express delivery volumes, particularly during the holiday season, with a year-on-year growth of 687% in express collection volumes [8]

中央纪委国家监委网站 李想 黄桶至百色铁路加速推进；2025年西部陆海新通道班列发运集装箱货物142.5万标箱，同比增长47.6%， 首次实现年发运量突破百万标箱……连日来，西部陆海新通道建设捷报频传，一幅贯通中国西部、连接 东盟、辐射全球的开放发展画卷，正在徐徐铺展。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明 确提出，加快西部陆海新通道建设。习近平总书记在广西、甘肃、重庆等地考察时，对西部陆海新通道 建设作出重要部署。纪检监察机关始终立足监督首责，在"国之大者"中找准定位，推动政策落地、项目 提速、廉洁建设与民生改善同频共振，以有力有效监督推动西部陆海新通道建设提质增效。 紧盯重点工程，以精准监督清除堵点痛点 "我们组织对重庆等地19处经营网点和公共枢纽平台开展实地调研，验证运营实况，以强监督提升工作 质效。"中央纪委国家监委驻中国远洋海运纪检监察组相关负责同志介绍。该纪检监察组督促指导中远 海运物流供应链有限公司纪委紧扣集团西部陆海新通道工作部署，围绕党建领航、资源获取、通道建 设、产品打造、经营协同、降低全社会物流成本与人才队伍建设等7个方面，明确18项 ...

Group 1 - The "no-invoice tax exemption" policy has officially launched, allowing Shenzhen cross-border e-commerce companies to register for tax exemption through an online platform, emphasizing compliance and proper documentation [4] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% as part of a trade agreement, significantly lowering the tax burden on various export sectors, while India has agreed to halt Russian oil purchases [5] - The global air freight market is projected to grow steadily in 2025, with demand increasing by 3.4% and capacity by 3.7%, driven by e-commerce growth and shifting trade routes due to tariff uncertainties [6] Group 2 - The global container shipping market is facing downward pressure on freight rates due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and seasonal demand declines, with the SCFI index dropping by 9.7% [7][9] - ONE has announced an upgrade to its FP2 shipping route, adding Haiphong, Vietnam, to enhance transport efficiency and strengthen its market position in Southeast Asia [8] - Recent operational changes at Guangzhou Port have led to strict booking policies, with freight forwarders halting new orders due to congestion and limited shipping windows ahead of the Lunar New Year [10]

（原标题：2025年阿塞拜疆海运货物量同比增长5.4%） 阿塞拜疆"Caliber"网1月19日报道，据阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会统计， 2025年，阿总货运量达2.4亿吨。其中，海运货物量达909万吨，同比增长 5.4%，占比总货运量的3.7%。47.5%的海运货物为油气产品。同期，阿海运乘 客2.6万人，同比下降10.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 World Leading Scientists Summit (WLS) held in Dubai gathered over 1,000 participants, including 39 Nobel laureates, highlighting the event's significance in the scientific community [1] - The UAE has elevated artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to a national strategic level, aiming to reshape its role in the global technology landscape through investments in data centers, energy, and semiconductors [1] - The summit emphasized the intersection of scientific culture and policy-making, aiming to align evidence with action in addressing global challenges [7] Group 2 - The summit featured a diverse range of interdisciplinary scientists, showcasing the unprecedented scale and depth of discussions on AI and its implications across various fields [2] - AI is recognized as a transformative force in the workforce, with potential to enhance employee capabilities and optimize production processes, particularly in industries like maritime [3] - Concerns were raised about the limitations of current AI technologies, with experts cautioning against over-reliance on AI for scientific discovery [4] Group 3 - The summit aimed to bridge the gap between scientific inquiry and policy action, addressing the need for funding and support for young scientists facing economic challenges [7] - The establishment of a new base for the World Leading Scientists Association (WLA) in Dubai is intended to position the city as a global hub for research and innovation [8] - The event underscored the importance of direct dialogue between scientists, policymakers, and industry leaders to tackle complex issues such as climate change and public health [7][8]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Merchants Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (招商轮船) experienced a stock decline of 5.02%, trading at 10.79 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 87.12 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on December 31, 2004, and listed on December 1, 2006, with its main business involving international crude oil, dry bulk cargo, and various shipping services [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes 86.38% from transportation services, 6.75% from other income, 4.77% from merchandise sales, and 2.10% from shipping support services [1] Group 2 - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF) reduced its holdings in China Merchants Energy by 2.88 million shares, now holding 54.80 million shares, which is 0.68% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF today is approximately 31.23 million CNY [2] - The fund has a total scale of 422.26 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 1.74% and a one-year return of 26.47% [2] Group 3 - The Huatai-PB Oil and Gas Fund (油气基金) increased its holdings in China Merchants Energy by 8,300 shares, now holding 144,600 shares, which constitutes 5.32% of the fund's net value [3] - The estimated floating loss for the Oil and Gas Fund today is about 82,400 CNY [3] - The fund has a total scale of 24.43 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 18.06% and a one-year return of 40.48% [3] Group 4 - The manager of the Oil and Gas Fund is Li Muyang, who has been in the position for 5 years and has a total fund asset scale of 28.87 billion CNY [4] - During Li Muyang's tenure, the best fund return was 225.42%, while the worst return was -34.85% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨太平洋航运（02343.HK） [Table_Title] 太平洋航运：细水长流，共迈远途 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 太平洋航运是一家深耕于小宗散货海运的公司，由于处于强周期的完全竞争市场，公司业绩随 行业波动，当前行业底部，拐点将至，供给端温和增长，无明显扩张迹象，且老龄化加剧有效 运力收紧，需求端提供向上弹性，西芒杜投产、美联储降息以及或有的俄乌战后重建等多重因 素助力拉涨行业的运量与运距。在运价中枢有望抬升的情况下，太平洋航运凭借其业内领先的 运力规模、经验老道的管理层与船管团队、稳健的多长约运营策略、审慎的资本开支纪律和持 续高分红承诺，展现出显著的周期防御性，且未来有望随着行业景气上行而展现业绩弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 魏爱晓 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_s ...

供应链去中心化支撑需求、运力结构性短缺利好亚洲支线市场。受益于区域经济发展、RCEP 协定深化 成员国贸易协同及产业链向东南亚、拉美等第三国/地区转移等多重利好，非干线贸易增速表现突出， 亚洲区域内海运贸易需求有望持续增长。此外，集运大小船型运力增速出现结构性分化，大量新造船订 单主要集中在8k+TEU船型，3kTEU 以下小型船舶受制于新船有限与船龄有限，其2026/27 年运力增速 预计仅为+0.5%/-0.7%。公司从2020 年以来，接连订造新船，增强船队竞争优势。公司在2025 年多次下 单新造船，使公司手持订单增至14 艘，总计2.88 万TEU，占公司运营船队的15.3%，保证了公司船队与 业务规模的未来成长性。 公司特别派息凸显红利属性。根据2025 年12 月18 日公告，公司宣派特别股息每股0.70 港元（相当于每 股0.09 美元），继2024 年之后连续第二年特别派息。公司2021 年股息支付率达94.89%后，2022/23 年 保持在71%左右，2024 年在特别分红支持下提升至85.35%。 盈利预测与评级：假设红海绕行持续，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为12.0 ...