Core Points - The U.S. government has launched a $12 billion critical mineral reserve program, named "Project Vault," aimed at establishing a national strategic reserve to mitigate supply chain risks [7][8] - The initiative is designed to reduce U.S. dependence on China for rare earths and other metals, which are essential for industries such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense [7][8] - The project integrates $1.67 billion in private capital with $10 billion in loans from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to support manufacturers in procuring critical minerals [7][9] Industry Impact - The program highlights the U.S. government's commitment to securing critical mineral supplies across key sectors, including automotive, aerospace, and energy, reflecting a strategic shift to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [8][9] - Over a dozen companies, including General Motors, Boeing, Corning, and Google, have already participated in the project, indicating strong industry interest and collaboration [8][9] - The initiative is expected to stabilize market prices for critical minerals by allowing companies to procure minerals at fixed prices, thus mitigating the impact of price volatility [10] Operational Mechanism - Participating companies must commit to purchasing minerals at agreed prices and pay a prepayment fee, after which they can submit a priority procurement list to the program [9][10] - The program allows companies to withdraw minerals from the reserve but requires them to replenish their inventory, ensuring a continuous supply chain [10] - The design of the program aims to create a stabilizing effect on the market, helping to smooth out price fluctuations for critical minerals [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai aims for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing its status as an international economic center and promoting technological innovation and industrial integration [3][5][7]. Economic Goals - The main expected targets for Shanghai's economic and social development include a GDP growth of approximately 5%, a 2% increase in local public budget revenue, and a research and development expenditure ratio of 4.6% of GDP [3][5]. Technological and Industrial Focus - Key tasks for 2026 involve deepening the construction of an international technology innovation center, supporting industries such as smart connected new energy vehicles, marine economy, low-altitude economy, aerospace, and satellite internet [5][6][10]. - The report emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation to cultivate new productive forces [7]. Research and Development - In 2025, Shanghai's R&D expenditure was about 4.5% of its GDP, with leading industries like integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence exceeding a scale of 2 trillion yuan [8]. - The city plans to establish 7 high-quality concept verification platforms and 6 incubators, with a technology contract transaction volume of 649.68 billion yuan, marking a 24.9% increase [8]. Modern Industrial System - Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a modern industrial system characterized by advanced manufacturing, focusing on two transformations (digital and green) and three leading industries (integrated circuits, biomedicine, artificial intelligence) [9]. - The plan also includes six emerging pillar industries and six future industry fields [9]. Specific Industry Initiatives - The "Shanghai High-Level Autonomous Driving Leading Area" plan aims for large-scale implementation of high-level autonomous driving by 2027, with a target for L2 and L3 vehicles to comprise over 90% of new car production [10]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a core industry scale of around 80 billion yuan by 2028, with plans to establish Shanghai as a leading city in eVTOL technology [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) showcased its C919 aircraft at the Singapore Airshow 2026, highlighting its advanced features and passenger comfort [3]. Group 1: Aircraft Specifications - The C919 aircraft has a seating capacity of 158 to 192 passengers [3]. - It offers a flight range of 4,075 to 5,555 kilometers [3]. - The aircraft features an advanced cockpit design that enhances the flying experience for pilots [3]. Group 2: Passenger Experience - The C919 is designed to provide a lower noise level, contributing to a more comfortable travel experience for passengers [3]. - The aircraft also ensures fresh air quality, further enhancing passenger comfort [3]. Group 3: Event Participation - At the Singapore Airshow, the C919 was displayed alongside the C909 medical aircraft and the C909 aircraft from Indonesia's Lion Air in the static display area [3].

Core Insights - Aerospace and military sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in aerospace, large aircraft, and satellite internet stocks [1] - The military leader ETF (512710) rose by 4.15%, while the satellite ETF (563230) and aerospace ETF (159392) increased by 3.83% and 3.68% respectively [1] - Major stocks within the military leader ETF, such as Aviation Industry Corporation of China, saw a limit-up increase, and Aviation Power surged over 8% [1] Industry Developments - SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI, an artificial intelligence company also owned by Elon Musk, indicating a strategic expansion into AI [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation, along with ten other departments, released the "Low Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)," aiming to establish a standard system for low-altitude aviation by 2027 and exceed 300 standards by 2030 [1] - The latest government work report from Shanghai emphasizes support for the development of intelligent connected new energy vehicles, aerospace, and satellite internet industries [1] ETF Information - The military leader ETF (512710) closely tracks the CSI Military Leader Index (931066), which includes 30 listed companies involved in military products and services [2]

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of developing emerging pillar industries as a key task for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) by 2026 [1][3] - The SASAC is drafting a work document to guide central enterprises in cultivating emerging pillar industries, focusing on major project investments and breakthroughs in key areas [1][3] - Key sectors highlighted include new energy, new energy vehicles, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, 6G, embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, marine energy, and green shipping [1] Group 2 - The meeting calls for a strong focus on strategic emerging industries and future industries, aiming to open up a "second curve" of growth while integrating traditional industry upgrades [3] - There is a push for deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, leveraging the advantages of SOEs to reshape the industrial chain and drive innovation [3] - The SASAC plans to enhance policy support and develop a more effective regulatory system tailored to the characteristics of SOEs and the changing technology landscape [3] Group 3 - Central enterprises are urged to advance technological innovation, implement major national science and technology projects, and focus on original innovation [5] - The goal is to create a modern industrial system by encouraging SOEs to open up scenarios, release demand, and share data, fostering a collaborative innovation ecosystem [5] - The SASAC aims to cultivate specialized and innovative "little giants" and champion enterprises through enhanced cooperation with national laboratories, universities, and research institutes [5] Group 4 - The SASAC emphasizes the need for improved income distribution management and the implementation of a tailored assessment system for SOEs in 2026 [7] - There is a focus on strengthening the incentive mechanisms for technological innovation and promoting systematic reforms in assessment and distribution [7] - The goal is to ensure that state-owned enterprises and capital become stronger, better, and larger, achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [7]

2026 年 2 月 3 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1008.58 | 1008.600 | 24425 | 24832 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1163.36 | 1161.420 | 27254 | 27941 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -154.78 | -152.820 | -2829 | -3109 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -13.30% | -13.16% | -10.38% | -11.13% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 78938 | 178401 | 156344 | 252527 | | | | 成交量 | 2 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai aims for a GDP growth of approximately 5% in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its international economic center and supporting key industries such as smart connected vehicles, marine economy, low-altitude economy, aerospace, and satellite internet [2][4] Industry Development Goals - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating technology and industry innovation to cultivate new productive forces, including accelerating the application of major technological achievements and promoting intelligent, green, and integrated industrial development [3] - Shanghai plans to increase its R&D expenditure to 4.6% of GDP, with significant growth in the integrated circuit, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence sectors, which have collectively surpassed 2 trillion yuan [3][4] Specific Industry Initiatives - The city has outlined specific initiatives for smart connected vehicles, including the "Mosu Zhixing" action plan, which aims for large-scale implementation of high-level autonomous driving by 2027, targeting over 90% of new vehicles to have L2 and L3 capabilities [4] - In the low-altitude economy sector, Shanghai aims for a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan by 2028, with plans to establish itself as a global hub for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) technology [5] Recommendations and Challenges - Industry representatives suggest leveraging Shanghai's strengths in high-end manufacturing and technology innovation to advance low-altitude economy sectors, while also addressing challenges in key technologies such as autonomous flight control and low-altitude communication [6] - Recommendations include accelerating the establishment of standards and applications in low-altitude communication, navigation, and safety operations, as well as fostering collaboration among leading enterprises, research institutions, and universities [6]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, but the aerospace sector is seeing active trading and capital inflow, indicating a trend towards high-growth sectors through ETFs [1][5][6] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (563380) has seen a net inflow of 155 million yuan and an average daily trading volume of 148 million yuan over the past week, with its total assets and shares reaching new highs of 900 million yuan and 742 million shares since its inception on October 29, 2015 [1][6] - The ETF is the only one tracking the CSI Aerospace Index, making it a key tool for investors looking to capitalize on opportunities in the aerospace industry [2][7] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - Strong fundamentals support the popularity of the Aerospace ETF, driven by increasing competition in space resources, exemplified by SpaceX's application to deploy a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites [2][7] - Major economies like the U.S. and Germany are planning to increase defense spending by 2026, which is expected to elevate global security priorities and potentially unlock significant growth in the military trade sector [2][7] Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Aerospace Index focuses on the aerospace sector, with significant allocations in aerospace equipment (62.8%), space equipment (18.0%), and military electronics (16.0%), covering key areas such as aircraft, satellites, and aerospace engines [2][7][8] - The ETF includes leading companies across various segments of the aerospace supply chain, providing broad exposure to emerging fields like commercial space and low-altitude economy [2][7]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rebound on February 3, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) experiencing a strong surge, reaching a gain of 3.41% and a trading volume of 182 million yuan, making it the leader in its category [1] - The Aerospace ETF has attracted over 300 million yuan in net inflows over the past four trading days, bringing its total size to 3.271 billion yuan, also ranking first among its peers [1] - SpaceX announced a merger with AI company xAI, which will integrate artificial intelligence with rocket technology and satellite communications, indicating a significant development in the commercial aerospace sector [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace Index and includes leading companies across the entire industry chain, such as fighter jets, rocket engines, and satellites, aligning with the "integrated aerospace" strategic direction [2] - The ETF has a high commercial aerospace content of 69.65%, with top holdings including Aerospace Development, China Satellite, and Aviation Industry Corporation of China [2]

Group 1 - The aerospace industry index (CN5082) has seen a strong increase of 3.13%, with notable stock performances from Hailanxin up 13.78%, Hangya Technology up 10.34%, and Hangfa Control up 10.00% [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) also rose by 3.13%, with the latest price reported at 1.45 yuan [1] - The Aerospace ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 131 million yuan, totaling 306 million yuan, averaging 76.57 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - Short-term demand growth for commercial aerospace and aviation in China is highly certain over the next five years, with both sectors being trillion-level markets likely to attract market interest [2] - Mid-term military trade demand is expected to see a significant turning point, driving an increase in both quantity and price of equipment, benefiting main manufacturers and key subsystem suppliers [2] - Long-term defense spending is projected to maintain a high growth rate of around 7% leading up to the centenary of the military in 2027, alongside accelerated iterations of new main battle equipment and rising demands for new combat capabilities [2] - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the aerospace index and covers key industry chain segments such as aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials, with a high weight of 70% in commercial aerospace concepts [2] - The top ten holdings in the ETF include leading companies such as Aerospace Development, China Satellite, Aerospace Electronics, AVIC Avionics, and AVIC High-Tech [2]