行业点评报告 · 通信行业 住借重核 2025年04月10日 核心观点 建议关注:运营商中国移动(A+H)、中国电信(A+H)、中国联通(A+H)。 ● 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定风险;AI+发展不及预期的风险等。 通信行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 赵良毕 ☎: 010-8092-7619 网:zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 赵中兴 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河证券】2025年度策略报告:高成长高景气, 科技变革创长牛 3. 【银河通信】运营商行业 2024年中报专题: 运营 商利润增速稳健，数智化转型全球领先 4. 【银河通信】出海专题报告:技术+成本优势驱动, 市占率持续提升 5. 【银河通信】中期策略报告：AI 为基算力为石, 科技变革浩瀚星辰 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 区：zhaozhongxing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130524090002 2025-04-10 相对沪深 300 表现图 An no ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，运营商盈利能力、现金流资产不断改善、资产价值优势 凸显，持续增加分红回馈股东，运营商业绩持续增长或超预期，5G+AI"收获期"大有可为。当前运营商 云业务发展如火如荼，国产大模型对于成本端的降低有望协同运营商云业务部署以及运营商的海量数据 资产，推动运营商第二曲线的快速增长;同时，国产算力的发展有望拉动国产算力产业链的快速发展， 国家队引领作用不断加强。建议关注三大电信运营商。 5G全球遥遥领先，新旧动能转换赋能新质生产力，AI布局有望超预期 5G网络建设稳步推进，千兆用户规模持续扩大。截至2月末，5G基站总数达432.5万个，占移动基站总 数的34.1%，比较上年末提高0.5pct。三家运营商固定互联网宽带接入用户总数达6.75亿户，电信建设全 球遥遥领先。新旧动能转换赋能新质生产力，央企电信运营商"科技链主"持续引领，新兴业务赋能打造 AI+国产新生态。运营商作为国家队代表，有庞大的服务器集群和强大的算力基础，积极响应数字经济 智算中心布局，更快速推动国产人工智能发展。同时，运营商拥有我国最大的流量管道，具备数据优势 及接口优势，AI应用的普及将持续推进。从科技 ...

招商证券发布研报称，25年1-2月电信业务收入实现小幅增长，用户规模持续拓展。国内三大运营商年 报方面，24年三者净利润增速持续高于收入增速，传统业务ARPU有望保持平稳、DeepSeek有望拉动新 兴业务持续拓展。2019-2028预计是一个为期十年期的上行周期，电信运营商价值激活的黄金期已然到 来。政策、竞争格局、资本投入及公司治理四大拐点共振，叠加创新业务高速发展，产业链影响持续增 强，重新定义未来十年成长空间。维持对于行业的"推荐"投资评级。 招商证券主要观点如下： 工信部行业情况：25年1-2月电信业收入实现小幅增长，客户规模持续拓展 1)电信业收入方面：25年1-2月电信业累计收入2,950亿元(yoy+0.9%)，增速小幅回落，该行认为主要系 24Q1基数较高且25Q1外部宏观环境仍然错综复杂所致。 2)用户发展方面：移动用户侧5G渗透率达58.6%，较上年末提升1.9pct;固网用户侧千兆宽带用户占比达 31.7%，较上年末提升0.8pct。 收入侧：24年三大运营商营收稳增、净利润增速持续高于收入增速，预计25年继续保持且整体业绩呈 现"前低后高"走势。1)传统业务侧：用户规模持续扩大，移动 ...

3月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。 数据显示，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 50.5%、50.8%和51.4%，比上月上升0.3、0.4和0.3个百分点，均连续两个月上升。 值得注意的是，制造业领域新动能较快上升，装备制造业新订单指数创2023年4月以来的新高。建筑业商 务活动指数连续2个月环比上升，创2024年6月以来的新高，显示一季度，建筑业活动持续稳步推进。 分析认为，中国采购经理指数的三大指数均在扩张区间继续上行，我国经济总体保持扩张，经济回升苗头 更为明显。二季度宏观经济预计继续取得"量的稳定增长"和"质的较快提升"。 制造业产需加快释放 3月份，制造业PMI继续上升。13个分项指数中，同上月相比，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数 和原材料库存指数上升，指数升幅在0.1至0.7个百分点之间。 积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数、从业人员指 数、供应商配送时间指数和生产经营活动预期指数下降，指数降幅在0.3至2个百分点之间。 分行业看，四大行业市场价格 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record high contributions, recurring profits, and full-year distributions to shareholders, with a total payout of HKD0.25 per share [6][11][12] - The interest coverage ratio at the end of the year was four times, exceeding the comfort level of three times [8][49] - The company maintained two investment-grade credit ratings and had no borrowings due in 2025 [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Indofood achieved record revenues for the eleventh consecutive year, with EBIT margins for the Noodles division reaching 25.9%, the highest ever [9][10] - Metro Pacific's core profit also reached record highs, driven primarily by power, water, and toll roads, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2025 [11][12] - PLDT reported record high sales and service revenues, with mobile data and SMS showing the strongest growth [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the electricity generation market in Singapore is expected to grow at rates exceeding 4% annually [24] - The Philippines and Indonesia's economies are projected to double from 2018 to 2029, which is expected to positively impact Metro Pacific's revenues and profits [75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on capitalizing on strong growth in its core businesses, particularly in defensive industries like power and water [75][80] - There are ongoing discussions regarding the potential IPO of Metro Pacific, with a focus on finding new capital through private placements [57][62] - The company is also exploring strategic options for Maya, its fintech venture, including potential IPOs or trade sales in the future [72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, indicating that current trends suggest another strong year for Metro Pacific in 2025 and 2026 [75][80] - The management highlighted the importance of improving operational efficiencies and reducing non-revenue water in Metro Pacific's water utility business to enhance valuation [33] Other Important Information - The company has secured long-term contracts for gas supply, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage in the electricity generation market [26] - The new 600 megawatt hydrogen-ready power project is anticipated to begin operations in January 2029, adding significant capacity to the portfolio [16][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected earnings trajectory for Pacific Light Power in 2025 and 2026? - Management indicated that 2023 was an exceptional year, and while profits are expected to taper, the overall portfolio remains strong with new projects in the pipeline [24][25] Question: Can you provide updates on the Terra Solar Phase two project? - The focus remains on Phase one of the Terra Solar project, with initial deliveries expected in Q1 2026 [27][29] Question: What are the considerations for the spin-off of MailiNet? - The valuation is tied to strong performance and operational efficiencies, with a focus on reducing non-revenue water [30][33] Question: Will there be share buybacks given the current NAV discount? - Management stated that share buybacks are part of a dynamic capital allocation strategy and will be assessed based on liquidity and other commitments [35][39] Question: What is the financing mix for PLP's new power plant projects? - The financing plan anticipates approximately 60% debt and 40% equity for the project costs [45][47] Question: What are the expected returns for the new power project in Singapore? - Expected returns are projected to be in excess of 12% up to mid-teens for investments in this space [53][54] Question: Any updates on the potential IPO for Maya? - Management confirmed that Maya is at an inflection point with growing customer bases and is generating positive net income, with discussions ongoing about future strategic options [70][72]

受特朗普关税政策扰动，全球股市承压。今日早盘，日韩股市低开，截至发稿，日经225指数、韩国综合指数均跌超1%。 中国资产逆市走强。 当地时间3月26日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署行政令，宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税。相关措施将于4月2日生效。 受特朗普关税政策影响，全球股市承压。隔夜美股三大指数收跌，纳指收跌逾2%，创3月11日以来最大单日跌幅，标普500指数跌超1%。欧股方面，除英国富 时100指数收涨0.3%，其余主要指数均收跌，德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数跌超1%。 今日早间，亚太股市普遍低开，日经225指数、韩国综合指数盘中均跌超1%。A股三大指数均低开，盘初探底，港股恒指、恒生科技指数盘初亦大幅下探。但 随后A股、港股均企稳拉升，主要指数盘中全线翻红。此外，富时中国A50指数期货盘中亦大幅拉升翻红，一度涨超1%。 特朗普关税政策扰动全球股市，中国资产逆市走强 个股方面，现代汽车跌超4%，丰田汽车跌超3%，本田汽车、日产汽车跌超2%。 美国总统特朗普26日在白宫签署公告，宣布对进口汽车加征25%关税，相关措施将于4月2日生效。他当天下午告诉媒体记者，美国政府将从4月3日起开始加 征这项新关税。 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 李嘉诚，最新发布 3月20日晚间，李嘉诚旗下的长江和记实业发布2024年财报。 报告显示，2024年净利润下降27% 至170.88亿港元，低于分析师预期的225亿港元。 全年营收达4766.82亿港元，高于去年的4615.58 亿港元。 公司宣布全年派息每股2.2港元，低于去年的每股2.53港元。 | | | | IFRS 16後(1) 其准 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截至12月31日止年度 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 參動 | | | 港幣 | 港幣 | 包股 | 包股 | | | | 自馬元 | 自島元 | 雑学 | 港幣 | | | 收益總額 (2) | 476,682 | 461,558 | | | | | EBITDA總額(2) | 125,108 | 127,309 | | | | | EBIT總額 (2) | 58,758 | 62.770 | | | | | 呈報名利 (3) | | | | | | | 基本 | 20.828 | 23.500 | 5.44 ...

China Unicom (00762) H2 2024 Earnings Call March 18, 2025 10:00 AM ET Moderator Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. My name is Meng Shuxin. I'm delighted today to be able to be with you once again today, and we are very grateful for your long term support to China Unicom. On behalf of the management of the company, I welcome you earnestly to the February. Today, we have two items. First of all, that our Chairman would speak to us and then the management would communicate with fellow media and analyst frie ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The telecommunications industry is experiencing steady growth, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in telecom business volume for 2024, leading to a total telecom business revenue of 1.74 trillion yuan, a 3.2% increase [2][12] - Emerging businesses, including cloud computing, big data, and data centers, are significantly driving industry transformation, contributing 4.348 billion yuan in revenue, a 10.6% increase year-on-year, and accounting for 25% of total telecom revenue [2][12] - The three major operators are accelerating their investments in AI and cloud services, with significant growth in their cloud business revenues, indicating a shift towards digital service providers [3][5][4] Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Development of the Telecommunications Industry - Telecom business volume is steadily increasing, with a 10% year-on-year growth projected for 2024, outpacing the national service industry production index by 4.8 percentage points [2][12] - The number of mobile phone users in China is expected to reach 1.79 billion by the end of 2024, with 5G users accounting for 56.7% of mobile users, significantly higher than the global average [13][15] - The construction of 5G networks is deepening, with over 1.265 million mobile phone base stations expected by the end of 2024, enhancing industry integration and application [20][21] 2. Continuous Improvement of Operator Cloud Business - The cloud business of operators is growing rapidly, with China Mobile's revenue reaching 50.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 19.3% increase year-on-year [3][31] - The three major operators are significantly expanding their computing power, with China Mobile achieving a general computing power scale of 8.2 EFLOPS and intelligent computing power of 19.6 EFLOPS by the end of the first half of 2024 [34][36] 3. Opportunities in the AI Wave - The three major operators are actively investing in AI, with China Mobile launching a comprehensive AI platform and China Telecom enhancing its AI capabilities through the "Star" brand [4][42] - All three operators have integrated the DeepSeek AI model, which is expected to enhance their service efficiency and enable the development of new AI-driven business models [47][55]