中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员 吴玉章讲席教授 2026年是"十五五"开局之年。站在新的起点上，我国经济拥有更多积极因素支撑，也将涌现更多发展机 会和投资机遇。新年之初，我们推出"开局之年看大势"系列报道，聚焦2026年经济发展的新变化、新场 景与新活力，呈现一份有深度、有温度、有态度的趋势解读。 刘晓光 刚刚过去的2025年，"苏超"撬动票根经济，"村晚"带火乡村文旅，《哪吒之魔童闹海》刷新票房纪录， 潮玩"拉布布"掀起抢购热潮……从县域赛事到国潮IP，从实体商品到沉浸式体验，热潮奔涌的消费市 场，生动印证了我国超大规模市场的澎湃活力与无限潜能。 全国政协委员尹艳林表示，实施城乡居民增收计划，就是要增加老百姓的工资性收入、经营性收入、财 产性收入以及其他转移支付收入。随着我国经济回升向好，市场预期改善，投资理财出现新变化，居民 财产性收入有望提升，为消费信心注入持久动力。 持续增强供需适配 我国拥有世界上最完整的工业体系，但也面临着供强需弱的矛盾。扩大内需，提振消费，也要在适应消 费结构变化、增强供需适配性上做文章。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，扩大优质商品和服务供给。工 业和信息化部副部长谢远生 ...

2026年是"十五五"开局之年。站在新的起点上，我国经济拥有更多积极因素支撑，也将涌现更多发 展机会和投资机遇。新年之初，我们推出"开局之年看大势"系列报道，聚焦2026年经济发展的新变化、 新场景与新活力，呈现一份有深度、有温度、有态度的趋势解读。 中国经济网记者 马常艳 刚刚过去的2025年，"苏超"撬动票根经济，"村晚"带火乡村文旅，《哪吒之魔童闹海》刷新票房纪 录，潮玩"拉布布"掀起抢购热潮……从县域赛事到国潮IP，从实体商品到沉浸式体验，热潮奔涌的消费 市场，生动印证了我国超大规模市场的澎湃活力与无限潜能。 2026年，如何进一步释放内需潜力、拓展增长空间？在中央经济工作会议确定的2026年经济工作重 点任务中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"排在首位，凸显扩大内需战略的重要性和紧迫性。随着 扩大内需战略持续深入，市场"乘数效应"与"结构红利"将充分释放，有望催生更大规模的新增消费市 场。 精准施策提振内需 我国有14亿多人口和4亿以上中等收入群体，这个超大规模的市场基本盘为内需增长奠定了坚实基 础。但与此同时，内需不足仍是当前经济运行面临的主要挑战。 "差距也是潜力。"中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in 2026, highlighting the need for a strong domestic market [1][2] - The article discusses the significant potential of China's consumer market, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle-income group, which lays a solid foundation for domestic demand growth [2][3] - It points out the shift in consumer behavior from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and services, indicating a substantial opportunity in service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the government's plan to enhance supply-demand matching by increasing the supply of quality goods and services, aiming for a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [4][5] - It highlights the role of technology, particularly AI and big data, in capturing consumer demand and driving innovation in product offerings [5][6] - The focus on effective investment is crucial for stimulating domestic demand, with policies aimed at optimizing consumption and investment strategies to create a virtuous cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The article identifies new consumption growth points in areas such as product quality improvement, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health, which are expected to drive market development [8][9] - It mentions specific sectors projected to become trillion-yuan markets, including elderly products and smart connected vehicles, as well as billion-yuan hotspots like children's products and fitness equipment [9][10] - The overall narrative suggests that as supply and demand achieve a higher level of dynamic balance, China's economy will transition from a "large market" to a "strong market" [10]

2026年是"十五五"开局之年。站在新的起点上，我国经济拥有更多积极因素支撑，也将涌现更多发展机 会和投资机遇。新年之初，我们推出"开局之年看大势"系列报道，聚焦2026年经济发展的新变化、新场 景与新活力，呈现一份有深度、有温度、有态度的趋势解读。 刚刚过去的2025年，"苏超"撬动票根经济，"村晚"带火乡村文旅，《哪吒之魔童闹海》刷新票房纪录， 潮玩"拉布布"掀起抢购热潮……从县域赛事到国潮IP，从实体商品到沉浸式体验，热潮奔涌的消费市 场，生动印证了我国超大规模市场的澎湃活力与无限潜能。 2026年，如何进一步释放内需潜力、拓展增长空间？在中央经济工作会议确定的2026年经济工作重点任 务中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"排在首位，凸显扩大内需战略的重要性和紧迫性。随着扩大 内需战略持续深入，市场"乘数效应"与"结构红利"将充分释放，有望催生更大规模的新增消费市场。 精准施策提振内需 我国有14亿多人口和4亿以上中等收入群体，这个超大规模的市场基本盘为内需增长奠定了坚实基础。 但与此同时，内需不足仍是当前经济运行面临的主要挑战。 "差距也是潜力。"中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权指出，随着经济发展和人均 ...

Group 1: National Unified Market - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to establish a national unified market construction regulation and to address "involution" competition [1] - The construction of a national unified market is seen as a key economic engine, expected to release significant "institutional dividends" and "efficiency dividends" over the next 3-5 years [1] - The focus is on eliminating bottlenecks and reducing costs, which will benefit companies involved in resource integration and efficiency improvement [1] Group 2: Robotics - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center launched the first fully autonomous humanoid robot navigation solution in China, integrating various capabilities for diverse applications [2] - The core technology relies on a closed-loop system that allows robots to operate independently without human control, enhancing the potential for widespread industrial applications [2] Group 3: Communication - Huawei, Alipay, and China Mobile Internet signed a cooperation agreement to initiate an intelligent communication era with "Communication as a Service" (CaaS) [3][4] - This collaboration aims to transform traditional communication into an intelligent service platform, enhancing user experience and expanding service capabilities [4] Group 4: Drones - The "Jiutian" drone successfully completed its first flight, featuring a modular design and advanced capabilities, positioning it as a leading product in the global market [5] - The drone is expected to fulfill military and civilian logistics needs, with significant market value anticipated as orders are fulfilled in the coming years [5] Group 5: Storage Chips - The storage chip market is experiencing a significant decline in transaction volume due to rising prices and limited supply, with NAND resource prices increasing by over 100% [6] - The shortage of NAND chips is expected to persist, with many manufacturers facing inventory challenges that could impact future supply [6] Group 6: Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Multiple new controlled nuclear fusion projects are set to launch, indicating a shift towards industrialization and increased demand within the sector [7] - The industry is entering a phase of intensive bidding, with significant capital expenditures expected to support ongoing project developments [7] Group 7: Tungsten - Prices for tungsten products have risen, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand across various sectors [8] - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain constrained, supporting high price levels in the coming years [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant role of 5G technology as a driving force for high-quality economic development in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting its rapid growth and integration into various sectors [1][2][8] Industry Development - China's 5G network has become the largest and most advanced globally, with the number of 5G base stations expected to reach 4.55 million by June 2025, a fivefold increase from 2020 [1] - The number of gigabit broadband users is projected to grow 34 times, reaching 226 million households by 2025 [1] - The focus is shifting from building a robust network to maximizing its commercial value and providing digital services to the public [2][6] 5G New Calling Innovation - 5G New Calling is a key innovation that enhances traditional voice calls by integrating features like video calls, content sharing, and smart customer service, redefining communication experiences [2][3] - The goal is to have over 100 million users of 5G New Calling by the end of 2027, indicating a transition from basic capabilities to value-added services [2][6] Market Dynamics - Major telecom operators are leading the deployment of 5G New Calling, driven by the need to innovate and counter the competition from OTT applications [6][7] - The integration of data channels with voice and video streams in 5G New Calling creates a more interactive and intelligent communication platform [6][7] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the rapid development, challenges remain, including the need for unified technical standards and a viable business model that balances consumer and enterprise needs [7][8] - The ongoing support from government policies and industry collaboration is expected to strengthen the foundation for 5G New Calling's growth and its role in the digital economy [8]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into human society is accelerating, leading to a concept known as "carbon-silicon symbiosis," which outlines potential future directions for human civilization [1] - The Chinese government's strategic initiatives emphasize the deep integration of AI with the economy and society, aiming for a significant increase in the digital economy's contribution to GDP [2] Group 1: Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis - Carbon-silicon symbiosis is categorized into four stages: tool-based, physiological, cognitive, and existential symbiosis, each representing different levels of integration between humans and AI [1] - The current stage is tool-based symbiosis, where AI serves as a powerful tool that extends human capabilities while maintaining human control [1] - The evolution of carbon-silicon symbiosis is influenced by technological advancements and the trajectory of human destiny, with a notable policy shift in China by 2025 [1] Group 2: National Strategy and Policy - The State Council's opinion on implementing "AI+" action incorporates the deep integration of AI into national strategy, linking it with the "Digital China Construction 2025 Action Plan" [2] - The policy aims to transform the technological vitality of silicon-based intelligence into developmental momentum for carbon-based society, positioning "symbiosis" as a core driver of new productive forces [2] - AI's application across various industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture, is expected to enhance production efficiency and drive industrial upgrades [2] Group 3: AI for Life, Production, and Governance - China Mobile is actively implementing the "AI+" initiative, focusing on integrating AI into life, production, and governance to foster high-quality and sustainable development [5] - In the "AI for Life" dimension, AI evolves from a tool to a proactive collaborator, enhancing smart living experiences through various applications [6] - The "AI for Production" aspect emphasizes transforming industrial operations through an integrated intelligent production system, facilitating collaboration across the entire production chain [6] - The "AI for Governance" initiative aims to create a "human-machine co-governance" model, enhancing resource allocation and decision-making in urban and rural settings [6] Group 4: China Mobile's Initiatives and Events - China Mobile has showcased its progress in carbon-silicon symbiosis at major events, demonstrating AI applications in various sectors and promoting digital governance [7] - The upcoming 2025 China Mobile Global Partner Conference will focus on exploring the collaborative development between humans and AI, addressing the future of "AI+" [8] - The conference will feature expert insights, industry discussions, and practical demonstrations of AI's impact on daily life and production processes [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Mobile has launched the "Network Age Growth Plan," emphasizing that "the longer the network age, the more trustworthy it is," transforming user loyalty into tangible benefits and showcasing its commitment to social responsibility and innovation in the digital economy era [1][4]. Group 1: Network Age Threefold Gift - The "Network Age Threefold Gift" includes the "Network Age Growth Gift," allowing users to receive popular membership benefits from platforms like Tencent Video and QQ Music based on their network age [3][5]. - Users can also choose from four technology services, including AI cloud storage and 5G new calls, and receive monthly data packages of 1-3GB to alleviate "data anxiety" [3][4]. - The service guarantee provides emergency activation and card replacement services, ensuring seamless communication for users [3]. Group 2: Financial Benefits - The introduction of the "Financial Benefit Loan Gift" in collaboration with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank offers users lower loan interest rates based on their network age, with discounts ranging from 98% to 85% of the current Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - Users can access loans up to 300,000 yuan with a repayment period of up to 7 years, promoting financial accessibility for various life scenarios [4]. Group 3: User Engagement and Rewards - Users celebrating their network anniversary can receive up to 6 vouchers worth 5 yuan or 2 movie tickets, enhancing the sense of community and appreciation [5][6]. - The "Network Age Surprise Gift" provides monthly exclusive lottery opportunities for users, with prizes covering various daily needs, from transportation to entertainment [6]. - The "Network Age Welfare Day" offers limited-time discounts on essential services, reinforcing the company's commitment to user satisfaction and value [6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The "Network Age Threefold Gift" represents a significant upgrade in communication rights, transforming daily services into a means of enhancing users' quality of life [6]. - This initiative sets a new service paradigm in the telecommunications industry and offers a replicable model for improving public welfare through credit system development in the digital economy [6].

Group 1 - The article highlights the integration of advanced technologies such as AI, VR, and robotics in the service trade sector, showcasing how these innovations are reshaping urban experiences and enhancing industry dynamics [2][3] - At the 2025 Service Trade Fair, various robots are deployed as service assistants, including greeting robots and convenience store operators, demonstrating the practical applications of robotics in daily life [2] - The introduction of AI-powered solutions, such as real-time language translation and intelligent fitness coaching, illustrates how technology is simplifying complex tasks and enhancing user experiences [2][3] Group 2 - The fair features immersive experiences that allow visitors to engage with cultural heritage through AIGC technology, enabling them to create personalized digital avatars and generate original music [3] - The "Dreaming Back to the Old Summer Palace" VR project offers a unique exploration of historical sites, merging cultural preservation with modern technology to provide an engaging visitor experience [3] - The use of advanced tracking and modeling technologies in cultural heritage projects represents a significant innovation in the digitalization of tourism and heritage conservation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The urgent mission of combating telecom network fraud has been embraced by China Mobile, which has launched a comprehensive anti-fraud service leveraging its 5G network and real-name authentication system to protect over 10 million users across 31 provinces [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Fraud Measures - China Mobile has developed an intelligent anti-fraud system utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor and intercept fraudulent calls and messages in real-time, achieving a full-chain protection mechanism [3]. - The company has intercepted 320 million fraudulent calls and 2.76 billion fraudulent messages, showcasing the effectiveness of its preventive measures [3]. - A dual mechanism of "prevention + compensation" has been established, with a rapid compensation process that ensures full payment by insurance companies if losses are not recovered within 30 days [3][4]. Group 2: Targeted Services - The anti-fraud services are designed with a "low threshold, wide coverage" approach, focusing on vulnerable groups such as the elderly, rural families, and students, with specific programs tailored for these demographics [3]. - Initiatives include providing basic protection and voice navigation claims services for the elderly, and conducting "anti-fraud into campus" activities in collaboration with 107 universities to raise awareness among students [3]. Group 3: Collaboration and Future Plans - China Mobile collaborates closely with local anti-fraud centers to enhance service efficiency, actively contacting eligible users to assist with claims [4]. - The company aims to expand its anti-fraud service user base to 50 million within three years, particularly targeting remote areas and vulnerable populations [4]. - Continuous improvement of the "Xihe Anti-Fraud Guardian" technology system is planned, incorporating new capabilities such as AI voice cloning recognition and real-time location verification for enhanced user protection [4].