资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李明阳 研究早观点 2025 年 8 月 25 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,825.76 | 1.45 | | 深证成指 | | 12,166.06 | 2.07 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,378.00 | 2.10 | | 中小板指 | | 7,447.79 | 1.65 | | 创业板指 | | 2,682.55 | 3.36 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,247.86 | 8.59 | 研究早观点 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250811-20250815）-——液冷、OCS 与国产超节点，继续关注 AI 板块轮动行情 【山证纺服】老铺黄金 2025H1 中报点评 【山证纺服】华利集团 2025H1 中报点评-2025H1 营收稳健增长，盈利水平 阶段性承压 【公司评论】中国移动(600941.SH)：中国移动 202 ...

中经记者 谭伦 北京报道 2025年半年报业绩出炉后，近年来一直是三大运营商最大增速引擎的云业务受到关注。其中，移动云收 入达561亿元，同比增长11.3%；联通云收入达376亿元，同比增长4.6%；天翼云收入达573亿元，同比 增长3.8%。虽然均保持增长，但相比于此前几年三家平均20%以上的增速，运营商"三朵云"呈现出明显 的放缓趋势。 相比之下，在国内政企公有云市场中，以阿里云、腾讯云等为代表的互联网云厂商则开始重回快速增长 通道。最新财报显示，2025财年第一财季（对应2025自然年第二季度），阿里云营收实现同比增长 18%，创下近三年最快增速。作为对照，涵盖云业务的腾讯金融科技及企业服务收入也在2025年第二季 度实现同比增长10%。 据IDC此前统计，截至2024年下半年，中国IaaS市场前五厂商分别为阿里云、华为云、中国电信天翼 云、移动云和腾讯云，市场份额分别为26.1%、13.2%、13.1%、9.3%、8.1%，运营商跻身前五已占两 席。仅半年过去，此前被广泛看好的运营商云再度面临挑战。 对于此番变化，Omida电信战略分析师杨光向《中国经营报》记者表示，经过前几年高速增长后，运营 商云的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for China Mobile (600941.SH) [1] Core Views - The transition from old to new growth drivers is putting short-term pressure on growth, but the company maintains a high dividend value [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with a net profit of 84.2 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [4][12] Summary by Sections C+H Segment - In the personal market, revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a total mobile customer base of 1.005 billion, net adding 560,000 users [5] - The number of 5G network customers reached 599 million, with a penetration rate of 59.6% [5] - The family market revenue grew by 7.4% year-on-year to 75 billion yuan, with 328 million total broadband customers [5] B+N Segment - The government and enterprise market revenue was 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, with a total of 34.84 million enterprise customers [7] - The mobile cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year, and 5G vertical industry applications are leading the market [7] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company completed capital expenditures of 58.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, with 25.8 billion yuan invested in 5G networks [10] - The company aims for a capital expenditure of 151.2 billion yuan for the full year, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [10] Dividend and Profitability - The company paid a dividend of 2.75 HKD per share in H1 2025, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [11] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 146.3 billion yuan, 154.9 billion yuan, and 163.9 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 6.78, 7.18, and 7.59 yuan [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The three major telecom operators in China are significantly increasing their investments in AI, with a focus on enhancing infrastructure to support AI data development [1][49] - The global largest semi-solid battery storage order has been signed by Nandu Power, with a total capacity of 2.8GWh, marking a significant advancement in energy storage technology [2][50] - The domestic wind power industry is accelerating its development, supported by the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" marine economy development plan [3][55] Summary by Sections AI Investments - The three major telecom operators (China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom) reported robust growth in their core businesses and are prioritizing AI-related sectors, with expected capital expenditures around 55 billion yuan for the year [1][49] Battery Storage - Nandu Power's order for semi-solid battery storage is the largest globally, expected to enhance the renewable energy absorption capacity of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2][50] Wind Power Development - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a plan to support the marine wind power industry, indicating a strong governmental push for renewable energy sources [3][55] Lithium Mining - CATL has suspended operations at its Jiangxi lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license, which is projected to reduce domestic lithium supply by approximately 8% [2][51] Energy Storage Initiatives - Indonesia has announced a 320GWh distributed battery storage plan as part of its 100GW solar development initiative, aiming to deploy solar and storage systems across 80,000 villages [3][53] Market Regulations - Gansu province has implemented a market-oriented pricing reform for renewable energy, allowing all new energy projects to participate in market transactions [4][61][62]

Core Insights - China Mobile reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a 0.7% year-on-year growth in main business revenue [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 84.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The digital transformation revenue reached 156.9 billion yuan, growing by 6.6% and accounting for 33.6% of main business revenue [1] Revenue Breakdown - Personal market revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, with a net addition of 560,000 mobile customers, totaling 1.005 billion [2] - The number of 5G network customers reached 599 million, with a penetration rate of 59.6% [2] - Family market revenue grew by 7.4% to 75 billion yuan, with 284 million family broadband customers [2] - Government and enterprise market revenue was 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with mobile cloud revenue at 56.1 billion yuan, increasing by 11.3% [2] Emerging Markets and Innovations - Emerging market revenue was 29.1 billion yuan, a 9.3% increase, with international business revenue at 14 billion yuan, growing by 18.4% [3] - The company launched the world's first 6G small-scale test network and led in the number of international standard projects for 5G-A and 6G [4] - Investment in 5G networks totaled 25.8 billion yuan, with over 2.599 million 5G base stations built [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its integration, operational, and transformation capabilities while accelerating AI-driven growth [4] - The monthly active users of the AI smart assistant reached 70 million [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with service revenue at 467 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [1] - The total number of connections reached 3.815 billion, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The personal market revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, while the mobile customer base reached 1.005 billion, with a net increase of 560,000 [1] - The family market revenue increased by 7.4% year-on-year to 75 billion yuan, with family broadband customers reaching 284 million, a net increase of 6.23 million [1] - The government and enterprise market revenue was 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, with the number of enterprise customers reaching 34.84 million, a net increase of 2.25 million [1] Emerging Business Growth - Emerging market revenue grew by 9.3% year-on-year to 29.1 billion yuan, with international business revenue at 14 billion yuan, up 18.4% [2] - Digital content revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, while financial technology's industrial chain finance business scaled to 47.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.5% [2] - Investment income from strategic emerging industries amounted to 7.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% [2] Investment Outlook - The target price for the company has been raised to 116 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its strong brand value and profitability [3] - The company is expected to attract long-term funds, including insurance capital, due to its stable and sustainable revenue and profit growth [3] - The stable dividend policy and attractive dividend yield further enhance the company's investment appeal [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 0.5% to 543.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in low-margin non-core business, aligning with the company's focus on "profitable and cash-generating revenue." However, Q2 profits exceeded expectations [2][12]. - The traditional business's ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) faced pressure, while AI direct revenue grew rapidly, reaching tens of billions [2][12]. - The company has implemented comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with cost growth lower than revenue growth, resulting in a year-on-year decline in several metrics [2][12]. - The company has lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance and confirmed that the dividend payout ratio for 2025 will be further increased compared to 2024 [2][12]. - The outlook for the year includes goals for stable revenue growth and good profit growth [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [6][12]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 280 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a net profit of 53.6 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year [12]. Business Segments - In H1 2025, personal market revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, down 4.1%, while mobile ARPU was 49.5 yuan, down 2.9%. Family market revenue grew by 7.4% to 75 billion yuan, with a family customer ARPU of 44.4 yuan, up 2.3% [12]. - Emerging business revenue from the government and enterprise market was 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6%, and mobile cloud revenue was 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% [12]. Cost Management - The company has effectively implemented cost reduction strategies, with various cost metrics showing year-on-year declines. For instance, network operation and support expenses decreased by 1.7% [12]. - In H1 2025, the company completed capital expenditures of 58.4 billion yuan and has adjusted its full-year capital expenditure guidance to less than 151.2 billion yuan [12]. Dividend Policy - The interim dividend per share is set at 2.75 HKD, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with an A-share interim payout ratio of 64% [12]. The company has indicated that the dividend payout ratio for 2025 will be higher than in 2024 [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Mobile with a target price of HKD 116, representing a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HKD 87 [2][6]. Core Insights - China Mobile's operating performance shows steady growth, with service revenue under pressure but profits exceeding expectations. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 543.8 billion, with service revenue at CNY 467.0 billion (YoY +0.7%). The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 84.2 billion (YoY +5.0%) [3][6]. - The company is focusing on value-driven operations to promote structural revenue growth. Personal market revenue was CNY 244.7 billion (YoY -4.1%), while household broadband customers reached 284 million, with a net increase of 6.23 million [6]. - The report highlights the continuous innovation and expansion into emerging businesses, with new market revenue reaching CNY 29.1 billion (YoY +9.3%) and international business revenue at CNY 14.0 billion (YoY +18.4%) [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's total connections reached 3.815 billion (YoY +8.9%), with digital transformation revenue at CNY 156.9 billion (YoY +6.6%), accounting for 33.6% of main business revenue [3][6]. - The EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was CNY 186.0 billion (YoY +2.0%), with an EBITDA margin of 39.8% (YoY +0.5pct) [3][6]. Future Projections - The report forecasts operating revenue to grow from CNY 1,009.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,088.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.7% [5][22]. - Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 131.8 billion in 2023 to CNY 161.8 billion by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][22]. Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at HKD 2.75 per share (YoY +5.8%), with an increasing cash dividend payout ratio expected for the full year [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape in the telecommunications industry is intensifying, with the introduction of number portability leading to adverse competition rather than improved service options for customers [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5437.69 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while communication service revenue grew by 0.7% to 4669.89 billion RMB [2][4]. - Net profit for the same period reached 842.35 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase compared to the previous year, with a net profit margin of 15.5% [2][4]. - The company's brand value increased by 33.1% to 41.3 billion USD [1]. Market Segmentation - Personal market revenue declined by 4.1% to 2447.27 billion RMB, while enterprise market revenue grew by 5.6% to 1181.96 billion RMB [4][6]. - The number of mobile customers reached 1.005 billion, with a net increase of 560,000, and 5G network customers totaled 599 million, marking a net increase of 46.91 million [4][6]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) remained industry-leading at 49.5 RMB [4]. Strategic Insights - The company is navigating a critical phase characterized by strategic opportunities, reform challenges, and a transition in growth drivers [5]. - The company anticipates significant growth in AI-related revenues, with current estimates in the tens of billions RMB range, driven by increased demand for computing power, models, data processing, and applications [7]. - The company has completed capital expenditures of 584 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with over 2.59 million 5G base stations established [6]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about achieving stable revenue growth and healthy profit increases for the full year [4]. - The integration of AI and digital technologies is expected to create new market opportunities and drive future revenue growth [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - China Mobile's 2025 interim report shows stable operating performance with a focus on AI+ initiatives, leading to a buy rating from Minsheng Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile achieved revenue of 543.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 84.24 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% [2]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 78.37 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - Personal Market: Revenue of 244.73 billion yuan, down 4.1%, accounting for 52.4% of main business income; 5G network customers reached 599 million with a penetration rate of 59.6% [3]. - Home Market: Revenue of 74.99 billion yuan, up 7.4%, accounting for 16.1% of main business income; broadband revenue was 55.94 billion yuan, up 9.3% [3]. - Government and Enterprise Market: Revenue of 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6%, accounting for 25.3% of main business income; mobile cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% [3]. - Emerging Markets: Revenue of 29.08 billion yuan, up 9.3%, accounting for 6.2% of main business income [3]. Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 2.75 HKD per share, an increase of 5.8% [3]. - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 58.4 billion yuan, with a full-year plan not exceeding 151.2 billion yuan [3]. AI+ Initiatives - China Mobile is enhancing its AI capabilities, with total computing power reaching 61.3 EFLOPS, and self-built computing power at 33.3 EFLOPS [4]. - The company has signed 1,485 AI+DICT projects and is collaborating with state-owned enterprises to develop industry-specific models [4]. - The AI intelligent assistant "Lingxi" has over 60 million monthly active users [4]. Investment Outlook - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 145.84 billion yuan, 153.95 billion yuan, and 162.68 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16x, 15x, and 15x [5].