| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601857 | 中国石油 | -2.08 | 0.21 | -11812.69 | | 600938 | 中国海油 | -0.29 | 2.12 | -9602.79 | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | -1.09 | 2.10 | -6130.13 | | 600256 | 广汇能源 | -0.18 | 1.23 | -4290.92 | | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | -0.13 | 0.36 | -2603.86 | | 600777 | ST新潮 | 0.76 | 1.93 | -1992.56 | | 002221 | 东华能源 | -5.15 | 4.26 | -1558.70 | | 603619 | 中曼石油 | -0.06 | 4.02 | -1311.91 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -0.71 | 0.22 | -1001.18 | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 0.47 | 4.33 | -961. ...

2025年一季度，多项政策调整引发经济局势的不确定性，美股一二级市场均呈降温迹象。道琼斯工业指 数一季度下跌1.28%，纳斯达克指数下跌10.42%，标普500指数下跌4.59%。根据Wind数据统计，2025年 一季度股权融资（包含IPO与再融资）募资金额为444亿美元，较去年同期的503亿美元减少-11.80%。 IPO方面，2025年一季度共88家企业成功上市，较去年同期增加36家；融资总金额为114亿美元，较去 年同期增长18.21%；IPO募资金额最大的是Venture Global，达17.50亿美元。SPAC方面，2025年一季度 IPO融资家数为19家，较去年同期增加11家；融资金额为26亿美元，较去年同期上升57.45%。中概股方 面，一季度赴美IPO以中小型企业为主导，上市数量为22家，较去年同期增加9家；融资金额仅为3亿美 元，较去年同期减少83.05%。 再融资方面，2025年一季度再融资事件数为209起，较去年同期减少35起；再融资金额330亿美元，较去 年同期下降18.93%。 从IPO承销维度来看，高盛以14.31亿美元的承销金额位居IPO承销榜榜首，承销家数为8家；摩根大通以 ...

近期，国际原油价格显著反弹，纽交所轻质原油期货价格重回70美元上方，布伦特原油期货价格也同步 上涨。这一趋势直接推动了石油石化板块的集体走强，其中通源石油表现尤为突出，盘中一度涨逾 16%，成为市场关注的焦点。 油价反弹的多重驱动因素 此次油价的反弹主要受到多重因素的共同推动。首先，全球经济复苏的信号愈发明显，尤其是在后疫情 时期，各国积极推动经济重启与增长，国际旅行和贸易逐步恢复，需求端的复苏势头显著。其次，地缘 政治风险加剧了市场的不确定性。中东地区的紧张局势，特别是曼德海峡的局势升级，导致原油溢价上 升。此外，OPEC+成员国达成协议，决定实施补偿性减产，特别是针对那些之前超出生产配额的国 家，这一举措有助于缓解供应过剩的压力。美国与伊朗之间的紧张关系进一步升级，美国对委内瑞拉和 俄罗斯的制裁也影响了全球原油供应格局。 通源石油的突出表现 在油价反弹的背景下，通源石油的表现尤为亮眼。截至上午收盘，通源石油主力资金净流入9367万元， 位居行业第一，净流入额占比3.33%。通源石油作为油气田开发解决方案和技术服务提供商，具备定向 钻井、射孔、压裂增产等一体化服务能力，以及井口天然气回收、二氧化碳驱油、压裂 ...

以下文章来源于华夏ETF ，作者ETF分析师 近日 ， 以自由现金流为核心的 " 现金奶牛 " 策略ETF成为公募新宠 ， 继首批自由现金流ETF上市 交易后 ， 多家基金公司陆续申报相关产品 。 华夏ETF . 据悉 ， 其中2家将跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数 ， 4家将跟踪国证自由现金流指数 。 分享ETF投资风向、ETF实战演练、ETF行情热点解析…… 若未来产品获批发行 ， 市场上将形成跟踪包括 国证自由现金流指数 、 富时中国A股自由现金流聚 焦指数 和 沪深300自由现金流指数 三种指数的自由现金流ETF ， 同时将为自由现金流ETF赛道带来 更多增量资金 。 (一) 聚焦自由现金流 ， 筛选高稳定性公司 为何基金公司扎堆布局国证自由现金流指数 ？ 我们不妨从指数的编制规则开始 ， 逐步对比 ， 看看 国证自由现金流指数 有何特别之处 ？ | 指数名称 | 国证自由现金流指数 | 沪深300目由现金流指数 | 富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数代码 | 980092 | 932366 | FCFOCD | | 指数基日 | 2012/1 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment has declined for two consecutive weeks, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook for market timing [1] - The market sentiment structure indicator was at 1.6 as of March 28, 2025, down 0.6 from the previous week, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [1] - The article highlights that the A-share market has experienced a decrease in trading volume, with a shift in funds from high-valuation growth sectors to low-valuation defensive sectors [5][9] Group 2 - The sentiment structure indicators show a negative signal, with trading volume decreasing and price-volume consistency declining to low levels [3] - The article notes that the overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped to levels close to the beginning of the year, primarily due to a cooling off in the technology growth sector [5] - The article mentions that various industries have shown mixed performance, with a low degree of price-volume consistency, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [9] Group 3 - The cyclical defensive sectors are showing a predominantly bullish signal, with short-term trends favoring large-cap value stocks [12] - The public utilities sector continues to indicate a bullish signal, with other sectors like coal, transportation, and petrochemicals also showing positive short-term signals [12] - The relative strength indicators suggest that the large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, with a strong certainty of a shift towards large-cap and value stocks in the short term [14][15]

- The report mentions the "TWO BETA" model, which continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - The industry allocation model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy[3][4][9] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index has narrowed to 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - The report suggests that if the trading volume falls below 1.1 trillion yuan, the market is expected to rebound[2][4][11] - The current PE ratio of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][12] - The position management model recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12] Model and Factor Construction - **TWO BETA Model**: This model recommends the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: This model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: The timing system uses the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 5253 points and the 120-day moving average at 5086 points, with a distance of 3.28%[2][4][11] Model and Factor Evaluation - **TWO BETA Model**: Continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: Recommends a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as new energy[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: Indicates a market in a volatile state, with the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages narrowing to 3.28%[2][4][11] Backtest Results - **Timing System**: The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index is 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - **Wind All A Index**: The current PE ratio is around the 60th percentile, and the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile[3][12] - **Position Management Model**: Recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12]

Group 1: Traditional Consumer Sector Insights - The initiation of traditional consumer market rallies often stems from large-scale economic stimulus or recovery in the real estate cycle, which boosts demand expectations, alongside technological innovation and consumption upgrades that open growth space for the industry [3][8] - Historical examples show that comprehensive economic stimulus supports a broad recovery in consumption, with policy-driven sectors like automobiles and home appliances rebounding first, while policy withdrawal poses potential risks [8][9] - The real estate cycle significantly impacts consumer demand, particularly in sectors like liquor and home appliances, with notable rebounds following favorable housing policies [9][10] - Short-term opportunities may arise in the consumer sector as valuations are at historical lows, with government policies promoting consumption in areas like home appliances and consumer electronics [11][12] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - Fiscal data from January to February indicates a slowdown in public fiscal revenue growth, primarily due to a decrease in land revenue, while central government spending and social welfare expenditures have shown strong growth [13][14] - The public fiscal deficit has begun earlier in the year compared to previous years, reflecting a significant expansion in the budget deficit and a faster issuance of general government bonds [15][16] - The government is expected to provide robust countermeasures against uncertainties in foreign trade, with monetary policy adjustments anticipated to support fiscal efforts [14][15] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report outlines three analytical frameworks to estimate the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation, with the first framework assuming complete pass-through of tariff costs to consumer prices [5][17] - The second framework considers corporate pricing behavior, differentiating between consumer goods and intermediate goods, leading to more accurate estimations of tariff impacts on inflation [5][18] - The dynamic equilibrium model suggests that the actual impact of tariffs on inflation may be lower than initial estimates, accounting for demand changes and trade responses [19][20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - BYD - BYD reported a 29.02% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 777.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase [32][33] - The company achieved a 41.3% increase in vehicle sales, with significant growth in overseas markets, indicating strong demand for its products [32][33] - BYD maintained high R&D investment, totaling 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, which is expected to support future growth through new technologies and product enhancements [32][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment remains highly volatile, with a short-term shift from bullish to bearish [1][2] - The market sentiment structure indicator reached a low of -0.85 on January 13, 2023, and has since recovered, peaking at 2.2 as of March 21, 2025, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [2][3] - Despite a generally optimistic view on A-shares, there is an increasing emphasis on defensive attributes as the market shows signs of weakness [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis of various sector indicators shows that the public utilities sector continues to signal bullish trends, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and coal are also showing positive short-term signals [5][6] - The technology and media sectors have experienced significant pullbacks, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [5][6] - The relative strength index (RSI) analysis indicates that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value styles, with a stronger certainty in the short-term transition to value [6][7]