宏 观 研 究 2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 社零方面，多数省份设定的目标高于 2025 年实际增速。新疆、河南、海南等地将社零增速目 标定在 6%及以上；河北、吉林定在 5%左右。贵州、甘肃、辽宁及重庆的目标设定为 4%及以 上。与 2025 年目标相比，河南、新疆目标分别上调 0.5 个百分点和 1 个百分点。与 2025 年 地方实际社零增速相比，河北、吉林、河南、广东等明显调高社零增速目标。 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 地方"两会"观察：二十省市，三大特征 ——2026 年地方"两会"跟踪 1 月下旬以来，地方"两会"进入密集召开期。各地 2026 年 GDP 增速设定情况如何，各地 2026 年政府工作报告定量与定性分析呈现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial value added in China is expected to achieve a medium to high-speed growth rate of around 5% by 2026, supported by various initiatives aimed at upgrading traditional industries and promoting emerging sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Growth Targets - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has prioritized stabilizing industrial growth and fostering innovation as key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a modern industrial system [1]. - In 2025, the industrial value added for large-scale industries grew by 5.9%, with manufacturing maintaining a stable share of GDP, indicating a strong foundation for future growth [2]. - Various provinces, including Zhejiang and Anhui, have set specific growth targets for industrial value added, aiming for increases of around 6% to 6.5% in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Major Projects and Investments - Shanghai plans to initiate 133 industrial projects in 2026, with a total investment of 110 billion yuan, focusing on large-scale projects to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Hebei is set to implement a "Project Construction Year" in 2026, emphasizing the completion of key projects and the development of emerging industries [3]. - The overall manufacturing investment is projected to improve in 2026, with expected growth rates between 3% and 5% due to new technologies and market demand [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy, with a focus on developing new industries and technologies [6]. - Various regions are actively promoting new growth points in sectors such as 6G, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing, aiming to enhance their industrial capabilities [8]. - The integration of technology and industry is expected to accelerate, with significant government support for artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and future industries [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to significant concerns among European economies, with the euro appreciating approximately 14.4% over the past year, reaching a high of 1.20 against the dollar, the highest level since June 2021 [1] Group 1: Impact on Eurozone Economy - The euro's appreciation has resulted in a tangible impact on European exports and economic growth, with Eurozone exports projected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to approximately €240.2 billion by November 2025, and trade surplus shrinking from €15.4 billion in November 2024 to €9.9 billion [2] - The Eurozone inflation rate fell to 1.9% in December 2025, below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, indicating that the euro's appreciation is increasing cost pressures on export businesses and potentially hindering economic recovery [2] - The euro's strength is particularly affecting export-dependent countries like Germany, where the weakening dollar has significantly pressured product exports, diminishing international price competitiveness [2] Group 2: Financial Market Implications - The weak dollar may create potential pressures on the Eurozone economy through financial channels, with concerns that the dollar's status as a global reserve currency could be questioned, leading to liquidity bottlenecks for European banks reliant on dollar refinancing [3] - The ECB's monetary policy faces new challenges, as higher long-term interest rates in Europe compared to nominal economic growth rates may lead to increased capital inflows into the Eurozone, further exacerbating euro appreciation [3] - If the euro reaches 1.21 against the dollar, it could lower inflation and real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points in 2026, with the ECB closely monitoring exchange rate changes for potential economic and financial system impacts [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The euro is expected to face upward pressure, with Morgan Stanley predicting that the euro could reach 1.23 against the dollar by the second quarter of 2026, indicating ongoing challenges for European export businesses and the overall economy [4] - A 5% increase in the euro against the dollar could reduce the annual returns of the MSCI Europe Index by approximately 1.5% to 2%, and on a trade-weighted basis, a 5% appreciation could decrease Eurozone exports by about 1.5% and economic growth by 0.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in December 2025 experienced a significant decline of 25.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from December 2024, which saw a 40.4% increase in central fiscal revenue [1][6][9]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Analysis - In December 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 25.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 11.5% and non-tax revenue down by 47.9% [6][7]. - The central general public budget revenue fell by 50.3%, while local general public budget revenue remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [6][7]. - The overall completion rate of the general public budget revenue for 2025 was 98.3%, indicating a satisfactory level despite the decline in December [9][10]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a pattern of being weak in the first half of 2025 but improved in the second half, with an overall annual growth of 0.8%, which was below the initial target of 3.7% [10][11]. - Specific tax categories such as stamp duty and personal income tax saw significant increases, with stamp duty growing by 24.1% and personal income tax by 11.5% [12][13]. - The growth in tax revenue was attributed to factors such as tax incentives, regulatory adjustments, and an active capital market [11][12]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - The fiscal expenditure in 2025 showed a weak trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.0% and a completion rate of 96.8% [16][17]. - The expenditure structure revealed a focus on social security, environmental protection, and health, while infrastructure spending saw negative growth in several areas [12][16]. - The divergence between revenue and expenditure created a fiscal gap of 71,350 billion yuan, which was lower than the initial budget estimate [16][22]. Group 4: Government Fund Budget Overview - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 decreased by 14.7%, with land transfer income significantly impacted [21][22]. - The government fund budget expenditure increased by 11.3%, primarily driven by special bonds and other fiscal instruments [21][22]. - The fiscal gap in the government fund budget was 55,170 billion yuan, indicating a need for adjustments in fiscal policy to stabilize the real estate market [21][22]. Group 5: 2026 Fiscal Outlook - The early fiscal situation for 2026 suggests potential improvements in tax revenue due to rising industrial indices and PPI [23]. - The land market remains weak, with a significant decline in land transfer revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [23]. - The issuance of bonds in early 2026 is expected to align with proactive fiscal policies aimed at stimulating economic activity [23].

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to a significant appreciation of the euro, with the exchange rate reaching 1.19 against the dollar as of January 31, 2023, and briefly surpassing 1.20, the highest level since June 2021. The euro has appreciated approximately 14.4% over the past year, driven by uncertainties in US economic policy and investor risk aversion [1][2] - European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have expressed concerns regarding the rapid appreciation of the euro, indicating that further increases in the exchange rate could complicate policy operations. The ECB's Vice President highlighted that a stronger euro could further suppress price growth, which is already below the ECB's 2% inflation target [1][2] - The appreciation of the euro has had a tangible impact on European exports and economic growth, with Eurostat reporting a 3.4% year-on-year decline in eurozone exports to other countries, amounting to approximately €240.2 billion in November 2025. The trade surplus has also decreased from €15.4 billion in November 2024 to €9.9 billion [2] Group 2 - The euro's appreciation is particularly detrimental to export-dependent European countries, such as Germany, where the manufacturing sector plays a crucial role in economic growth. The German government has noted significant pressure on exports due to the weaker dollar, which has diminished the price competitiveness of German products in international markets [2] - The euro's strength is expected to exert downward pressure on inflation and economic growth, with predictions that if the euro reaches 1.21 against the dollar, it could lower inflation and real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points in 2026 [3] - Future projections indicate that the euro may continue to face upward pressure, with Morgan Stanley forecasting an exchange rate of 1.23 against the dollar by the second quarter of 2026. An increase of 5% in the euro's value could reduce the MSCI Europe Index's annual returns by 1.5% to 2% and decrease eurozone exports by about 1.5%, potentially cutting economic growth by 0.3% [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the deep-seated anxieties and challenges within the U.S. economy, despite claims of American superiority over China [1][5] - The U.S. military strategy is criticized for its inability to effectively counter low-cost threats, indicating a potential long-term economic burden [3] - The U.S. national debt, which stands at $35 trillion, poses a significant risk to economic stability, as government revenues struggle to cover interest payments [5] Group 2 - Manufacturing output has increased, but a decline in exports has led to a slowdown in new orders and stagnation in job growth, suggesting that financial gains are not translating into real economic productivity [7] - The article discusses the U.S. media's tendency to distort facts to maintain a narrative of American success, reflecting a political agenda rather than an objective analysis [9] - The U.S. military's ambitious defense projects face challenges such as budget overruns and technological limitations, raising questions about their effectiveness [11] Group 3 - The article contrasts the U.S. approach with China's economic transformation, which emphasizes high-quality growth and innovation rather than mere numerical expansion [15] - China's advancements in technology, such as the commercial operation of the C919 aircraft and breakthroughs in quantum computing, signify a shift from following to leading in the tech sector [17] - The narrative presented by U.S. media is described as a "spiritual placebo," masking the reality of a declining empire and the erosion of dollar hegemony [19]

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to a significant appreciation of the euro, with the exchange rate reaching 1.19 against the dollar as of January 31, 2023, and briefly surpassing 1.20, the highest level since June 2021. Over the past year, the euro has appreciated approximately 14.4% [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) officials have expressed concerns regarding the rapid appreciation of the euro, indicating that further increases in the exchange rate could complicate policy operations. The ECB's inflation target of 2% is already under pressure due to low inflation levels, which could be exacerbated by the euro's strength [1][2] - The euro's appreciation has had a tangible impact on European exports and economic growth, with Eurostat reporting a 3.4% year-on-year decline in eurozone exports to other countries, resulting in a reduction of the trade surplus from €15.4 billion in November 2024 to €9.9 billion in November 2025 [2] Group 2 - The euro's strength is directly undermining the competitiveness of European manufacturing exports, which is a critical factor affecting the current economic recovery in Europe. Countries with high export dependence, such as Germany, are experiencing significant pressure on their export markets due to the euro's appreciation [2] - The financial channels are also under potential pressure due to the weak dollar, with concerns that the dollar's status as a global reserve currency may be questioned. This could lead to liquidity bottlenecks for European banks that rely on dollar refinancing [3] - The ECB is facing new challenges as long-term interest rates in Europe exceed nominal economic growth rates, leading to increased capital inflows into the eurozone and further euro appreciation. If the euro reaches 1.21 against the dollar, it could lower inflation and GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points in 2026 [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the euro is expected to face upward pressure, with Morgan Stanley predicting that the euro could reach 1.23 against the dollar by the second quarter of 2026. An increase of 5% in the euro's value could reduce the MSCI Europe index's annual returns by about 1.5% to 2% and decrease eurozone exports by approximately 1.5%, impacting economic growth by 0.3 percentage points [4]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of leveraging comparative advantages and promoting breakthroughs in future industry development during a collective study session on January 30 [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported significant progress in land rights registration during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with over 2,100 key areas completing registration, covering more than 340,000 square kilometers [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange launched soybean meal and corn options on January 30, providing more flexible hedging options for industry players, marking a significant advancement in the agricultural commodity options market [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projected a positive outlook for the software and information technology services industry by 2025, with software business revenue expected to reach 1,548.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] Group 3 - France's economy is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, slightly above previous expectations, although still lower than the growth forecast for 2024 [3] - Germany's unemployment rate reached 3.08 million in January, an increase of 177,000 from December, marking the highest level in 12 years [3] - Russia plans to significantly increase military exports by 2026, focusing on military-technical cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization and CIS countries [3]

Economic Development - Guizhou's industrial output from the "six major industrial bases" accounts for 83.3% of the province's total industrial output [3] - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 7%, with industrial added value now making up 25.5% of the regional GDP [3] - The province's computing power has surpassed 160 Eflops, positioning Guizhou as one of the regions with the most and strongest intelligent computing resources in the country [3] Investment and Infrastructure - The 2026 investment plan for the provincial power grid kicked off with the construction of the 500 kV Water City (Dongdi) power plant connection project [2] - The government aims for fixed asset investment to grow by approximately 3% in 2026 [10] Innovation and Technology - The successful transformation of the corn self-pollination system "QD001" marks a national first in technology transfer [9] - New materials like purified black phosphorus are expected to drive the development of a billion-dollar industry [9] - The government report highlights new terms such as biomanufacturing and embodied intelligence, indicating a strategic focus on innovative approaches [13] Social Welfare and Education - The implementation of free preschool education and the addition of 124,000 new basic education seats are part of the province's commitment to education [3] - The "ten livelihood projects" for the year include building heating facilities for rural schools at high altitudes and constructing 58 county-level medical centers [14] Market Expansion - Initiatives like "group-style assistance" and "reducing logistics costs" are designed to enhance market access and boost exports, exemplified by the export of 32 tons of matcha to Sweden [12]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the Heilongjiang Provincial Government's work report emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption as key initiatives for economic growth [1] Group 1: Consumption Promotion - In 2026, Heilongjiang Province plans to hold over 2,000 consumption promotion events, including the "Buy in Longjiang" initiative, with government consumption vouchers exceeding 800 million yuan [1] - A special action to boost consumption will be launched in 2025, aiming to stimulate consumption by 72.84 billion yuan through various activities, including a trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - The online retail sales are projected to grow by 14.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce and digital sales channels [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment structure in Heilongjiang is continuously optimizing, with high-tech manufacturing investment increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [1] - The proportion of private investment has risen by 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a growing confidence in the private sector [1] - The establishment of 15 new flagship stores from internationally and domestically renowned brands is expected to enhance the local retail landscape [1]