2026年伊始，多地召开"新年第一会"，聚焦优化营商环境、招商引资、人工智能（AI）、"AI+制造"等 关键词。 纵观各地"新年第一会"，许多地区展现出强大的战略定力。例如，上海连续多年聚焦营商环境主题，表 明优化营商环境是持之以恒的系统工程。部分地区则突出科技创新赋能产业发展，例如，苏州推 出"AI+制造"八大行动，加快建设"智造之城"；温州努力实现"在温州看见创新中国"。 上海发布优化营商环境9.0版方案 会上通报辽宁全省2025年优化营商环境工作完成情况，发布《辽宁省大力优化营商环境行动方案（2026 版）》。 多地强调智造强市 "最强地级市"苏州聚焦新型工业化，在"新年第一会"上强调"AI+制造"。苏州市新型工业化推进会议 暨"AI+制造"创新发展大会1月4日举行，会上发布了"苏州市推进"AI+制造"八大行动（2026年）"。 上海1月4日上午召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会。上海市委书记陈吉宁指出，打造国际一流营商环境 是一项系统工程。要进一步优化工作机制，发挥整体效能。要强化问题的主动发现和解决机制，及时跟 进新技术、新业态、新模式，强化对共性问题、重点问题和突出问题的评估分析，推动从"解决一个 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion zone for the first time in eight months, with a reading of 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a recovery in market demand [1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8% in December 2025, driven by effective growth stabilization policies and strong export resilience [2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI rose significantly by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, contributing the most to the overall PMI increase [2] Group 2 - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a recovery in business conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a decline in PMI to 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a tighter relationship with consumer demand, which remains weak [3] - The main raw materials purchasing price index was at 53.1%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decrease, while the factory price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9% [3] Group 3 - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but remaining in contraction territory for two consecutive months [4] - The construction PMI rose to 52.8%, marking a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone for the first time in five months [5] - The recovery in the construction sector is attributed to the completion of the 500 billion yuan policy financial tool and favorable weather conditions in southern provinces [5]

刚刚过去的2025年，山东大踏步迈入10万亿大省行列，经济社会高质量发展引发全国关注。即日起，凤 凰网山东推出"再启新程——凤观齐鲁2025"年度盘点策划，从全省统筹、区域联动、鲁企作为等多个维 度，解码山东跨越十万亿的底层逻辑，深度展现奋进齐鲁的生动实践，积极展望"十五五"开局新篇，共 同期待山东以更强担当、更实举措，持续书写高质量发展的精彩篇章。 越是环境复杂多变，越能检验一个省份的发展韧性。 刚刚过去的2025年，百年未有之大变局加速演进，外部环境的不确定性与国内需求不足等压力交织叠 加，以稳健、韧性著称的山东，保持充足战略定力，于承压中奋进。山东省省长周乃翔在二零二六年新 年贺词中宣布，2025年山东地区生产总值预计超过10万亿元，成为全国第三个、北方第一个过10万亿元 省份。 这不仅是数字上的跨越，也是山东作为经济大省，在高质量发展道路上厚积薄发的实力彰显，更是山东 作为北方地区经济重要增长极，主动践行"走在前、挑大梁"使命担当的生动体现。 十万亿的体量，源自工业强省的坚实底座。作为拥有全部41个工业大类的省份，山东始终将工业经济视 为"头号工程"，以新型工业化推动产业能级跃升。"十四五"期间，全省 ...

Core Insights - Hainan Island is transforming into a massive "duty-free store" and "free processing zone," allowing foreign goods to enter with zero tariffs and processed goods with over 30% added value to enter the mainland market duty-free [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - In the first week of the closure, imported duty-free goods exceeded 400 million yuan, and duty-free shopping on the island reached 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [3]. - The explosive growth of international transshipment trade saw container volumes surge by 213%, positioning Hainan as a new hub connecting China with the world [3]. - Hainan's port container throughput has set new records, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics in the region [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Vietnam, which has been a popular destination for manufacturing due to its labor cost advantages, is experiencing a decline in orders from Chinese markets, with some electronic factories seeing a 23% drop in orders post-Hainan's closure [6]. - Hainan's favorable conditions, such as a corporate tax rate as low as 15% and quick registration processes, contrast sharply with Vietnam's lengthy approval periods for tax incentives [6][8]. - Singapore, historically a key player in transshipment trade, is facing challenges as goods are now being shipped directly to Hainan, bypassing Singapore, leading to an 11.3% decline in transshipment trade volume [12]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Vietnam is responding by planning to establish free trade zones in key cities by 2026, aiming to replicate Hainan's model, although it faces inherent limitations in market size and industrial depth compared to Hainan [8][14]. - Singapore is focusing on enhancing its high-end services and maintaining its competitive edge by investing in financial technology and smart port systems, rather than competing in low-end manufacturing [19][21]. - The shift in trade dynamics is prompting both Vietnam and Singapore to rethink their strategies, with Vietnam aiming to evolve from a low-cost manufacturing base to a more resilient manufacturing and market integration model [31]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Hainan's model represents a new phase of globalization, moving from linear division of labor to a regional integration approach that optimizes efficiency and cost for businesses [26][28]. - The competition is shifting towards a comprehensive evaluation of market potential, policy efficiency, infrastructure, and industrial chain collaboration capabilities [35]. - The changes initiated by Hainan's closure are not just affecting regional players but are also reshaping the global economic landscape, highlighting the need for adaptation among countries like Vietnam and Singapore [37].

Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices collectively declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term government bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause in rate cuts [15][19] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17][18] - The US military conducted a large-scale airstrike in Venezuela, marking an escalation in military pressure on President Maduro's regime [20][19] - President Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on imported furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25][26] Domestic Events & Data - The intensity of domestic travel during the New Year holiday increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional daily passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43][28] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with average daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Group 1 - The core direction for central enterprises is to focus on the real economy, strengthen key core technology breakthroughs, and promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, which is essential for high-quality development and advancing Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of building a modern industrial system and consolidating the foundation of the real economy as a strategic task, highlighting the need to focus economic development efforts on the real economy [1][2] - Central enterprises are seen as the backbone for implementing major national strategies, driving technological innovation, and leading industrial structure upgrades, thus playing a pivotal role in strengthening the real economy [1][2] Group 2 - The development direction of central enterprises must revolve around the real sectors such as industrial manufacturing, with a clear stance against the trend of capital moving away from the real economy, which has previously led to significant risks [2][3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines to hold central enterprises accountable for failing to serve their main business and for moving away from the real economy, establishing clear operational boundaries [2] - Central enterprises are encouraged to enhance the management of their primary responsibilities, improve the efficiency of state capital allocation, and focus on developing advanced manufacturing as the backbone of a modern industrial system [2][3] Group 3 - The material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization is industrial modernization, which requires central enterprises to deepen their engagement in the real economy and focus on key core technology breakthroughs [3][4] - There is a need to strengthen the role of technological innovation, increase investment in basic research, and focus on long-term, high-investment fields where other enterprises may lack the capability or willingness to engage [3] - Central enterprises should aim to become sources of original technology and lead the modern industrial chain, concentrating efforts on overcoming significant technological challenges and producing major innovative scientific achievements [3] Group 4 - Focusing on the real economy involves not just adhering to traditional models but driving industries towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformations through innovation [4] - Traditional industries must undergo transformation and upgrading through equipment renovation, technological breakthroughs, and process enhancements to strengthen the supply of high-end products and services [4] - The integration of modern information technology with traditional industries is crucial, including the establishment of digital workshops and smart factories, as well as promoting green manufacturing practices [4]

FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示："多年来，首次领取失业救济的申请在假期和恶劣 冬季天气期间波动较大，但就业市场的缺乏或实质性疲软令人印象深刻，因为经济没有接近衰退的迹 象。" 标普全球1月2日公布的数据显示，美国2025年12月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值为51.8，与此前 初值及市场预期持平，但较11月的52.2有所回落。数据维持在扩张区间，显示美国制造业在多重经济压 力下仍具一定韧性，但扩张力度降至过去五个月来的最低水平，制造业复苏动能正在放缓。 从分项指标来看，12月制造业生产虽仍保持增长，增速较前一个月明显放慢；与此同时，新订单出现了 一年来的首次萎缩，反映出需求端开始显现疲态。标普全球指出，这一变化部分与关税因素有关，关税 持续推高企业运营成本，使制造业企业面临更大的经营压力。尽管如此，投入品价格和产出价格的涨幅 均降至11个月以来的最低水平，显示成本传导压力在一定程度上有所缓和。 标普全球首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，目前生产增长与订单下降之间的差距已扩大至自 2008年全球金融危机高峰以来的最大水平，凸显制造业面临的潜在风险。如果需求不能尽快改善 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to slow to 4.6%, with a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [1][14] - Industrial production is projected to maintain steady growth, significantly supporting the overall GDP growth target [2][15] - External demand remains resilient, with export growth expected to continue positively [1][5] Production - The industrial added value growth rate for December is estimated at 5.0%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for 2025, significantly higher than GDP growth [2][15] - Improvement in demand is noted, driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and construction progress [2][16] - Manufacturing enterprises are experiencing improved production and market demand, with production growth slightly outpacing demand [2][16] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for December is expected to be 1.5%, a slight increase from 1.3% [3][19] - Policies supporting the replacement of old products are anticipated to bolster consumer spending, particularly in durable goods [3][19] - The automotive sector continues to face challenges with declining sales and increased discounts, impacting overall retail recovery [3][20] Investment - Fixed asset investment for 2025 is projected to decline by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 1.2% growth, while infrastructure and real estate investments are under pressure [4][23] - The investment environment has been notably weak since June 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth in 2026 [4][25] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments are expected to jointly drive growth in early 2026, with a projected increase of 2.5% for the year [4][25][30] Export - December export growth is anticipated at 3.9%, with an annual growth rate of 6.6% for 2026, supported by stable external demand from non-developed countries [5][5] - The stabilization of US-China trade relations and reduced trade friction with Europe and Japan are expected to benefit exports [5][5] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate for December is expected to be 0.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected at -1.9% [6][6] - The overall price level is expected to remain stable, with core CPI showing signs of recovery [6][6] Employment - The urban unemployment rate for December is projected to rise slightly to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors [7][7] - Continued policy support is expected to help stabilize employment, particularly for vulnerable groups [7][7] Monetary Policy - Financial data for December indicates continued pressure, with new loans and social financing expected to decline [8][8] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [8][8]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that Germany's employment is projected to decline in 2025, marking the first decrease since 2020, with an average employment number dropping by approximately 5,000 compared to 2024 [1] - In 2025, the manufacturing sector is expected to see a significant reduction of 143,000 jobs, a decline of 1.8%, while the construction sector will lose 23,000 jobs, a decrease of 0.9% [1] - The service sector, however, is projected to avoid a sharp decline, with an increase of 164,000 jobs, representing a growth of 0.5%, particularly in public services, education, and health, which will see an increase of 205,000 jobs, a growth of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in Germany is expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 161,000 unemployed individuals, marking a growth of 10.8%, leading to an unemployment rate increase from 3.1% to 3.5% [1] - The analysis from the Federal Statistical Office suggests that the slowdown in economic growth and demographic changes are impacting the labor market, with fewer young workers entering the workforce to replace retiring baby boomers [2] - The participation rate in the labor market is being supported by the net immigration of foreign workers and the increasing employment of older individuals and women [2]

智通财经APP获悉，调查显示，欧元区制造业活动在12月进一步萎缩。上个月，由于新订单进一步减 少，欧元区制造业活动陷入更深层次的收缩，产量出现了10个月来的首次下降。 法国成为了罕见的亮点，其制造业PMI跃升至42个月以来的高点。在非欧盟成员国英国，受益于财政大 臣瑞秋·里夫斯预算案带来的缓解，需求回升推动12月制造业活动创下15个月来最快的增长速度。 标普全球的欧元区制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从11月的49.6降至12月的48.8。这是九个月来的最低读 数，且连续第二个月低于50这一荣枯分界线。 调查显示，欧元区20国的制造业活动呈现出普遍性的下滑。作为欧元区最大的经济体，德国在受监测的 八个国家中表现最弱，PMI读数创下10个月新低。意大利和西班牙也重新跌回了收缩区间。 汉堡商业银行首席经济学家赛勒斯·德拉鲁比亚表示："欧元区制造产品的需求再次放缓。企业似乎既没 有能力也不愿为来年积累动力，反而表现出审慎态度，这对经济而言无异于毒药。" ...